Resilient Hotel Typology for Hamburg against Urban Pandemics

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Fig.1:Image of Hamburg

Resilient Hotel Typology for Hamburg Against Urban Pandemics Asli Suberker - 122954 Nursultan Tynchtykbek uulu - 123369 1

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Table of Content Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Literature Review 2.1 Urban Pandemics

2.1.1 Introduction to Urban Pandemics

2.2.2 Characteristics of Urban Pandemics

2.2.3 COVID-19 Pandemic

2.2 Overlook at Hamburg Hotel Market 2.2 Resilient Hotels Against Urban Pandemics

2.2.1 Vulnerability of Hotel Industry Against Sudden Shock

2.2.2 Flexible Hotels

2.2.3 Zoku Hotel as an Example of Flexible Hotel

2.2.4 Digital Hotels

2.2.5 Henn-Na Hotel as an Examples of Digital Hotels

Chapter 3: Methodology Chapter 4: Findings and Discussions

4.1 COVID-19 Effects on Hamburg Hotel Market

4.2 Selected Target Groups for Proposing Resilient Hotels for Hamburg Against

Urban Pandemics

4.2.1 Domestic Tourist

4.2.2 Classical Business Meeting 4.3 Resilient Hotel Typology for Hamburg Against Urban Pandemics

Chapter 5: Conclusion

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Introduction CHAPTER 1

Our world has been facing a series of urban pandemics throughout human history. From very early ages, the 14th century’s Black death, to recent ones, SARS, COVID-19, world pandemics have been shaping our societies for centuries (Huremović, 2019) . While some of them speed up the formation of a new middle class as it happened in the Plague (Huremović, 2019), some others force cities to declare bankruptcy of the city as it happened in Hong Kong 2003 SARS pandemic (Chien & Law, 2003). However their structures and effects differ from each other, they ordinarily all have a great contagion on human health, economic and social conditions lasting for centuries (Huremović, 2019).

Despite that pandemics such as COVID-19 “influenced several countries all over the world, regardless of their income” (Lak et al., 2020), the lasting effects of pandemics are more severe for the ones who have less resilience against outbreaks in terms of economical conditions. Due to some governmental policies such as lockdowns (Zhang, Wang, Rauch & Wei, 2020) and travel restrictions some business sectors are more likely to have inevitable crises specifically hospitality (Barton, 1994) and tourism.

Hotels are vulnerable to sudden shocks like natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and urban pandemics (Bas & Sivaprasad, 2020). These phenomena can leave very negative marks on the hotel market as it experienced during various pandemics such as Ebola, Pig flu, SARS, and COVID-19. The essentiality of innovative strategies for hotels to prevent themselves from possible deadly damages of urban pandemics is represented by the severe consequences experienced from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003 (Chien & Law, 2003) and the COVID-19 pandemic challenging the whole world for the last 1.5 years.

Despite some studies guiding countries, cities to cope with pandemics, there is still a gap in location-based guidance for Hamburg hotels. It’s claimed that there was no reference on how to deal with such crises during SARS in 2003 (Chien & Law, 2003), and five of the 81 hotels on the Hong Kong Hotels Association membership list were even put up for sale when occupancy was badly affected by the pandemic (Wong, 2003). The goal of this study is to protect Hamburg hotels from such consequences of future urban pandemics by proposing a resilient hotel typology.

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To do that, initially, we represent the subchapter, urban pandemics, under the Literature Review chapter.

This subchapter is studied in three parts. Introduction to Urban Pandemic and Characteristics of Urban Pandemics give an overall look at the history of urban pandemics, their effects, and characteristics. After these, COVID-19 Pandemic explores its outbreak scenario, some of its effects which are recorded until now, and the interventions to prevent its spreading.

The second subchapter, Resilient Hotels Against Urban Pandemics, explores the vulnerability and resilience of hotels against pandemics by drawing out the early and current examples of urban pandemics. After that, it gives two hotel typologies and their examples which were accomplished to get minimum damages from pandemics. These are listed as Flexible Hotels and Digital Hotels. The next subchapter called Overlook at Hamburg Hotel Market gives general information about. The second chapter offers our findings and discussion points. First, it explores the COVID-19 pandemic effects on the Hamburg hotel market by comparing the numbers before and after the pandemic and studying changes in leisure and business trips separately under COVID-19 Impacts on Hamburg Hotel Market heading. Selected Target Groups for Proposing Resilient Hotels for Hamburg Against Urban Pandemics represent two resilient target groups; domestic tourists and tourists attending classical business meetings. The last subchapter called Resilient Hotel Typology for Hamburg Against Urban Pandemics represents the resilient hotel typology which is based on our argument that suggests combining digital and flexible hotel typology to host resilient target groups who can be served during pandemic situations.

Fig.2:Image of Hamburg

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Literature Review CHAPTER 2 2.1 Urban Pandemics 2.1.1 Introduction to Urban Pandemics A pandemic is defined as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people” (Last, 2001, pp.151). Various pandemics have been threatening human lives throughout the centuries. While we encounter early ones in history books or related articles, unfortunately, we must face recent ones like influenza, Ebola, or COVID-19. Besides their threatening power on human health, they affect a broad spectrum of business types and social activities negatively (Visentin et al., 2021) which decreases the quality of life. To minimize the severe consequences of pandemics, from the beginning of the 20th century, the World Health Organization constituted a Health Emergencies Programme (WHE) for the Member States to be resilient for possible pandemics. Within the framework of the program, they publish reports and guidelines including action plans and essential information about pandemics (WHO). However, this institution is pointing out the severity of urban pandemics, concrete systems to fight with them are still not efficient due to its changing pattern and being subject to several realms.

2.1.2 Characteristics of Urban Pandemics Throughout history, urban pandemics have been highly related to external various aspects such as infrastructure and service qualities of the city and the economic and demographic structure of the host societies (Samal, 2014). While having no access to proper sewer systems and lack of treatment was one of the main causes creating severe threats against human health as it happened in 1918 cholera pandemic, mobilization and accelerated urban population (Hays, 2005) of the early twenty-first century became a brand new threat of our modern world despite the “development of a vaccine and antibiotics, the foundation of the WHO” (Hays, 2005, p.476) and the improved city infrastructures. To clarify, as the aspects which are the concern of pandemics are not stable, the vulnerability of the societies against pandemics is changing according to characteristics of the centuries.

Besides external aspects, “the changing patterns of infectious disease such as (1)Antibiotic resistance (2) Emerging and reemerging infectious disease (3) Change of niche such as from animal to human…” (Samal, 2014, p.165-166) make pandemics unpredictable and harder to fight with them.

If it is needed to be exemplified with a comparison between viral influenza and COVID-19, “viral

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influenza is most severe in ... the very young, the elderly, and immunosuppressed individuals” while COVID-19 “Adults over 65 years of age represent 80% of hospitalizations and have a 23-fold greater risk of death than those under 65.”(Mueller, McNamara & Sinclair, 2020, pp.9959). Since existing vaccines and antibiotics can not address all the possible different patterns of infectious diseases without meeting with them, people’s health, the economy becomes vulnerable until the invention of proper treatment.

2.1.3 COVID-19 Pandemic The outbreak of COVID-19 was originated in mainland China. Due to its ability to be transmitted by airborne droplets, it quickly reached Europe after almost three months of its outbreak (WHO). On March 11, the World Health Organization declared the disease as a “global pandemic”, and there were no drugs or vaccines to treat this epidemic by this time (Anton & Almedia, 2020). With the shock of experiencing unprecedented times, in early May 2020, confirmed cases reached 1,800,000 and many thousands of deaths were recorded (Ranasinghe et al., 2020).

With urgent non-pharmaceutical interventions, some national health systems respond to this new threat (Fritz & Kauerman, 2020). Various scientific studies discuss that social distancing is the most effective and necessary measure to prevent the spread of the virus in a high mobility world of the 21st century (Prem et al., 2020) while others remark the role of mobility in the expansion of the virus, especially in the early stages of proliferation (Kraemer et al., 2020)

Fig.3:Image of Hamburg

Despite the inhibitor effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the expansion of the virus, most of the countries are forced to face the economic impacts of the limitations, if not, the deadly virus itself (Anton & Almedia, 2020). Many European countries have followed the guidelines by the European Commission, put limits on mobility by closing their borders or prohibiting non-citizens from entry (Linka, Peirlinck, Costabal & Kuhl, 2020) and adopt health measures by quarantining their populations (Visentin et al., 2021), implementing social distancing or mandatory mask-wearing (Bas & Sivaprasad, 2020).

As these measures are the concern of various disciplines, several business sectors have been threatened by them. It is reported that the global economy could shrink by up to 1 percent in 2020 due to the 7

coronavirus pandemic (Kumar, 2020) and lots of business industries are facing different levels of threats. Kumar (2020) explained the severity of the situation by emphasizing that “The pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade” and “nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt” (pp.5). The more days pass, the more its effects become visible and this situation calls for the need for measures, strategy, and time to recover from the pandemic “attacking societies at their core” (Kumar, 2020, pp.1).

2.1 Overlook at Hamburg Hotel Market The tourism industry is Hamburg’s second most important economic factor after the port industry (Tourismusverband Hamburg e. V., 2020). According to Hamburg Tourismus GmbH (2015), tourism gained 6.02 billion euros in gross sales to the Hamburg economy in 2013. In this achievement, overnight visits are responsible for 2,72 billion euros and stays in commercial establishments account for 61.7% of all expenses in the hospitality industry (Hamburg Tourismus GmbH, 2015).

According to the study held in 2014, the overnight visits form 20% (%11 commercial trips, 6,3% family/friend visits) of all trips to Hamburg (Hamburg Tourismus GmbH, 2015). In 2018, 14.5 million overnight stays were recorded by emphasizing the growth by 21% during the last 5 years (Engel&Völkers Hotel Consulting GmbH, 2020). Furthermore, with the increase from %71 to %79 between 2010-2018, the Hamburg hotel market achieved the highest rate of room occupancy among German cities (Colliers International Hotel GmbH, 2020 ). ADR (Average room price) of hotels were leading between 2011-2013 with 102-103€ and with some alterations it ended up with 100€ in 2019 (Statista, 2020). Thanks to the positive demand growth, between 2010-2018, 103 new hotels stepped into the Hamburg hotel market and the overall number of hotels reached 415 (Statista, 2020). In 2019, the hotel market was dominated by 46% 3 stars and 31% 4-star hotels while 5-stars were occupying 6%, 1 star 3% and 2-stars 14% (Colliers International Hotel Gmbg, 2020).

Fig.4:Number of overnight stays in Hamburg from 1999 to 2019 Source: Statista

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The city of Hamburg is one of the most popular destinations for leisure trips. A confirmed survey of 164 destinations shows that Hamburg is the third best-known city as a tourist destination (92%) of all the German destinations after the North Sea and Bavaria (Das Tourismusmagazin der Hamburg Tourismus GmbH and des Tourismusverband Hamburg e.V., 2016). The city ranks first in terms of awareness, attractiveness, willingness to visit and recommend, and puts Berlin and Munich in second and third place (Das Tourismusmagazin der Hamburg Tourismus GmbH and des Tourismusverband Hamburg e.V., 2016). Thanks to the survey of Statista, we found that 15.43 million accounts for the number of overall overnight stay in 2019 (Statista, 2020), and the average overnight stay for leisure trips is around 12 million respectively.

Fig.5: Arrivals of overnight stays Source: LB Immowert

The Elbphilarmonie concert hall, the landmark of Hamburg, where classical and contemporary music concerts are held is visited by 17,000 visitors every day, which makes it one of the most popular places in Europe. (“4 million people visit Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie concert hall in the first year”, 2017). One of the characteristics of the city is the diversity of its neighborhoods, historic sites such as Speicherstadt with its fascinating warehouses and downtown shopping areas, and high-class gastronomic options. Furthermore, the willingness to visit the city is most pronounced among those under 25 years of age due to such alternative urban lifestyles in the famous “Schanze”, “St.George” and “St.Pauli” districts. Travelers of the city can visit new museums, musical theaters, shopping to visit an excellent variety of restaurants (BNP Paribas, 2019).

As being one of the most welcoming locations for new business developments (Logistik Initiative Hamburg, 2019), and logistics and trade fairs (Colliers International Hotel GmbH, 2020), Hamburg is hosting a large number of overnight business stays. In 2012, a high rate of 2 million overnight stays was recorded by business travelers among 3.5 million visitors (Hard, 2019). By hosting 7.62 million business travelers in 2019 (Colliers International Hotel GmbH, 2020), with the constant average length of stay of 2.0 days, the number of business overnight stays rose to about 15.43 million (Colliers International Hotel GmbH, 2020) and these stays were held 75% by domestic tourists making Hamburg in the fourth place among most popular destination for domestic business destinations in Germany (Hard, 2019).

In July 2017, the occupancy rate of hotels reached to88% due to 9000 rooms booked for 36 delegations during the week of the G20, an international forum for the

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worlds largest developed and emerging economies (Smith Travel Research, 2019) This high demand for hotels also boosted the average daily rate (ADR) of hotels. Relying on the news from the past, hoteliers have been waiting for the re-opening of the Hamburg Congress Center which was under renewing construction, and having the peak days back (Christie & Co, 2020).

Hamburg Messe Exhibition Center which keeps the tradition of having a 650-year history of trade (“650 Years of Trade Fairs in Hamburg”, n.d.) fairs alive boost the hotels’ occupancy rate that are located around. By hosting fairs from the maritime industry, aviation, renewable energies and media, Hamburg trade fairs attract 2.7% of overall business travelers. In 2016, the annual Hanseboot took place in this center and attracted around 68,000 visitors. Thanks to high demand visitors, Hamburg hotels’ occupancy rate increased by 3.4%. and RevPAR also benefited from this situation (Das Tourismusmagazin der Hamburg Tourismus GmbH and des Tourismusverband Hamburg e.V., 2016). In 2015, the overall benefits were higher with an impressive reached level of room occupancy level, %91. Hamburg Messe exhibition hall hosts each year about 40 self-organized events as well as guest events with 15.000 exhibitors and about 700.000 visitors and makes Hamburg a significant meeting point for people from all over the world (Hamburg Tourismus GmbH, 2017) and a profitable location for the hotel industry.

2.2 Resilient Hotels against Urban Pandemics 2.2.1 Vulnerability and resilience of Hotel Industry against Pandemics According to Wang and Ritchie (2010), the hotel industry is one of the most fragile sectors against terrorist attacks, global financial recessions and pandemics like SARS and COVID-19, the biggest challenge of the decade. This situation is highly related to being a tourism-dependent business which is associated by Cooper (2006) with being not ready for disasters. Throughout history, the consequences are recorded in different areas. In 2003, SARS epidemic tourists tried to prevent trips to destinations referring to the disease (Napierała, Le´sniewska-Napierała & Burski, 2020), and people started to be more strict about the safety of the destinations (Cooper, 2006). As a result, the occupancy rate of Hongkong hotels fell to 10%. (Li, as cited in Chien & Law, 2003).

When it’s compared with the SARS, COVID-19 effects are visible in almost all hotels around the world. Lockdowns and nationwide restrictions including border closures, travel bans let people travel less and as consequence the mobility rate fell by 76% (Aloi et al., 2020), and the number of transit passengers dropped to 52% (Fatmi, 2020) in Germany and the average air travel passenger in Europe fell by half (Suzumura et al., 2020). This decrease makes the massive drop of 60-80% in the tourism industry visible throughout 2020 (World Tourism Organization, 2020). With the decrease in tourism circulation, hotels are forced to face mass cancellations of reservations and low bookings rates which can turn out hotel closures in some severe situations (Nhamo,G., Chikodzi, D., Dube,K. 2020).

Even unpredictability is a common feature for all external shock causes on hotels, the recovery time is much longer than average for tourism (Skare, Soriano, Porada-Rocho´n, 2021) and also for the hotel industry which depends on it. To minimize this time period and raise resilience against future pandemics, some location based studies are guiding hotels as it can be seen in Polish Hotels example. The study held by Napierała et al. (2020), proposes a flexible scenery based on consideration of other alternative target groups for some Polish hotels.

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2.2.2 Flexible Hotels Thanks to the restrictions, hotels have had to adapt to the situation and develop strategies for operating in crisis, rethinking their services and space (“Co-working: How hotels are reinventing themselves”, 2020). Considering the negative effects of the restrictions on the hotel industry, and based on research and analysis made above, we concluded that a flexible hotel typology is one of the foundations for creating and developing a sustainable hotel typology for the current and future pandemics. According to the article “Hotels in Uncertainty: Measuring Organizational Resilience”, “Strategy” refers to a hotel’s behavior that involves based on the necessities of the time (Melian-Alsola, Fernandez-Monroy & Hidalgo-Peñate, 2020). The strategic approach is a characteristic of resilient companies, which gives the opportunity to constantly adapt to the environment (De Oliveira, Werther, 2013).

One of the first strategies is to use the extensive possibilities of hotels as offices, or more precisely, as workplaces (“Co-working: How hotels are reinventing themselves”, 2020). From the first steps, hotel chains such as Zoku Hotel, Noxton/Ennismore, Accor, Ace, CitizenM, and Kerten Hospitality, taking into account the hygiene restrictions, began to offer “hybrid hospitality” services (Folgado, 2020), more specifically the creation of modular workspaces where two-three people can use as small offices, and small meeting rooms for business meetings. (Folgado, Colliers International 2020). “So our offers are also interesting for people who cannot work at home or go into the office at this time,” says cofounder Hans Meyer. According to the report by Colliers International, hotels that provide workspaces and accommodations generate 20% more revenue (Folgado, 2020). It is estimated that this strategy will achieve even more success in the near future (Folgado, 2020), and due to the situation in the global hospitality industry nowadays, this strategy is sustainable and promising. Besides, this strategy is very beneficial in terms of getting closer hotels to the community, “with this mixed-use function, the hotel will become better connected to the city and the neighborhood. Instead of just serving tourists and business travelers, it will really become part of the local community,” said Dirk Bakker, head of hotels for the EMEA region at Colliers International (Folgado, 2020). Furthermore, the concept, thanks to its flexibility in a pandemic environment, is also easy to adapt to post-pandemic time, taking into account its hybrid typology. “I would not be surprised if it becomes a permanent new form of hospitality in the future,” commented Dirk Bakker, Head of Hotels EMEA at Colliers International (Folgado, 2020).

Changing the direct functions of hotels to strategically important demands such as hospitals, quarantine areas (Katsadze, Milojevic, 2020) can help hotels to survive while they are relieving the pressure on the healthcare system (Rekha, 2020). Instead of closing the business, the hotel industry was able to operate during a crisis, and moreover, this strategy is resistant to future similar crises, hotels were able to adapt to the situation, changing the functionality and at the same time helping the health care (Katsadze, Milojevic 2020). This flexible approach is demonstrated by the Burrard Hotel in Canada, which for the duration of the pandemic, adapted by applying this system. The hotel faced huge issues at the beginning of March when due to the pandemic new bookings decreased significantly, and guests canceled bookings. The hotel experienced a huge decrease in the occupancy level and had to make quick radical decisions (Katsadze, Milojevic 2020).

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2.2.3 Zoku Hotel as an Example of Flexible Hotel Hotel chain Zoku Loft which has 160 in Amsterdam branch and Vienna 131 rooms, is a hybrid of a home office and creates all the necessary conditions for efficient work and at the same time for a living (Folgado, 2020). Goldman Sachs director of Strategic Planning for EMEA, stated that “At Zoku, we've introduced a new category in the hospitality industry by combining the best hotels, homes, workplaces, and community spaces into one attractive package” (“Thriving neighborhood for Global Nomads”, 2015). It's also called the spacious "micro-apartment" (“Thriving neighborhood for Global Nomads”, 2020), where residents can comfortably work to hold meetings and live with all the comforts of home.

For conducting business conferences and meetings there are flexible event rooms and spaces with great views and most importantly a large environment that can safely host groups of people. Furthermore, in the Zoku rooms, there is a large kitchen table which is mainly a center for working with a laptop and a bottle of wine (“Thriving neighborhood for Global Nomads”, 2020). In each room, designed for two people contains a full living room and a kitchen. Also, residents can add amenities for themselves, such as artwork that can be hung on the walls or move furniture (“Thriving neighborhood for Global Nomads”, 2020).

Fig.6: Zoku Hotel Source: livezoku.com

Fig.7: Zoku Hotel Source: livezoku.com

This strategy has been used by Zoku for more than 4 years and during the COVID-19 pandemic, this strategy of flexibility has shown its excellent sustainability, and the hotel is constantly introducing new features such as Summer Edition, which gives the opportunity to do local high-quality tours in compliance with all hygienic regulations (“Welcome to Zoku Amsterdam”, 2020). Thanks to such a flexible strategy, Zoku is opening three more branches in the city of Paris, Copenhagen, Vienna in 2021 (“Thriving neighborhood for Global Nomads”, 2020).

2.2.4 Digital Hotels There is a strong relevance between human interaction and the rate of epidemic transmissions.

Lak, Asl and Maher (2020) stated that reducing social interactions and face-to-face connections are essential to control the spread of pandemics. This situation creates anxiety among human contact and can influence a person’s decision-making mechanism (Xie & Wang, 2003). In the hotel context, a survey held during COVID-19 states that travelers tend to choose less human interaction in hotels which represents less risk for them (Kim, Kim, Badu-Baiden, Giroux & Choi). From this point of view, providing a high quality of hygiene standards with minimum human interaction plays a key role in proposing resilient Hamburg hotel typology against future urban pandemics as this measure is a concern of both resilient target groups. To meet this standard, we remark on digitized hotel operations providing contactless services via “service robots’’ (Vatan & Dogan, 2021).

Service robots are programmed to “ interact, communicate and deliver service to an organization’s customers”(Wirtz et al., 2018, pp.909) in nonindustrial areas (Isaak & Kolodny, 2019). They can be assigned with production and daily tasks of hotel operations like delivering luggage, cooking and dishwashing, housekeeping, cleaning hotel rooms and communal places, working as a receptionist in the front desk etc. (Ivanov & Webster, 2017) which creates possible human interactions (Shin & Kang ,as cited in Kim et al., 2021). While they are providing these services, they are capable of some degree of “automated social presence” (van Doorn et al., 2017) and they can mimic the expression of emotional expressions (e.g. using facial expressions and body language) which is found pleasant (Tielman, Neerincx, Meyer & Looije, 2014). With all these features, its full and partial application in hospitality establishments are visible such as Henna-hotel where service robots occupying the full employee quota of it in Japan (Osawa et al., 2017) or a robotic butler to service hotel guests of Starwood’s Aloft Hotel (Tung & Law, 2017) and wait for further improvements.

Even though hiring robot employees started to be in high demand especially during COVID-19, it is still in its infancy (Wirtz et al., 2018, pp.922), and the studies that are done about this topic focuses on technical aspects despite working on customer and employee relations with service robots (Kim & Banchs, as cited in Tung & Law, 2017). This situation can make it hard to adopt service robots into the conventional hotel industry. The research aiming to discover employee and robot interaction shows that Turkish hotel employees were still not ready to be cooperators with service robots due to the widespread bias (Vatan & Dogan, 2021). Another survey held during COVID-19 emphasizes preferred robot service by customers over human service with the remark of influence of being under COVID-19 threat on interviewers’ answers and preferences may return to human service over robot service because human service is characterized as involving emotion (Kim et al., 2021). Finally, advancements in robotics represent a unique, yet urgent, window of opportunity where managerial insights could inspire new directions in hospitality and tourism research. By combining the depth and breadth of knowledge in tourism experiences with HRI, insights from future research programs could benefit practitioners in this fast-growing area.

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2.2.5 Henn-Na Hotel as an Example of Digital Hotel The Spanish Association of Hotel Managers predicts that by 2029 more than 95% of hotel front desk workers will be replaced by robots (Belanche et al., 2020). Also, the introduction of robots in the hospitality industry can improve service quality, operational efficiency, and reduce financial costs (Ivanov, Webster, 2019). Considering the COVID-19 pandemic, robots are able to perform logistical and disinfection work, thus reducing the threat of infection (Shin, Jeong, 2020). Studies conducted in the context of COVID-19 have predicted a growing demand for the introduction of service robots into hotels (Seyitoğlu,F., Ivanov,S. (2020).

As a suitable example of a viable robotic and digitized hotel, we consider the Henn-na Hotel in Tokyo, Japan (Osawa, 2017). The hotel opened in July 2015 and is the first fully robot-staffed hotel in which customers have no contact with an employee throughout their stay (Osawa, 2017). The hotel has 80 robots, including a manual robot that carries luggage, robot porters, robot women, and dinosaurs at the front desk, and 10 people for maintenance, as well as desk robots for customer service in the rooms and robot cleaners (Osawa, 2017). The hotel is divided into five areas, in the main building, there is a reception area where we find reception robots that serve guests, these robots make gestures by reacting as customers use certain buttons for the check-in process, and speech recognition is not used (Osawa, 2017). The robot porter is activated after checkin and takes luggage into the room, the cleaning robots are only used in the lobby and corridors. In the rooms, the robot “Tullie’’ works by voice activation of the customer, to control the TV, lights, temperature, and phone.

Fig.8: Henn-Na Hotel, Source: travelvoice.jp

Since the hotel does not replace all work with robots and digitalization, and while there is no technology to replace human’s ability, they divide tasks according to their ability to perform (Osawa, 2017).

For this purpose, the hotel pays a lot of attention to switching between human and robot duties. For instance, only human employees clean the rooms and robots clean the floors in common areas, and there are human technicians to keep the robots running (Osawa, 2017). Albeit, there is no perfect robotic workforce, this system should proceed to work because compared to other hotels, they have reduced operational costs and according to media reports, customers have stayed one more night to experience the robot system (Zhang et al., 2019).

Fig.9: Henn-Na Hotel Source: jalan.net

Methodology CHAPTER 3

The Hamburg hotel market has been impacted severely by the COVID-19 pandemic like almost every other location. Despite that, the Hamburg tourism industry and hotel market have strong points that can help hotels to prevent themselves from the effects of pandemics. By studying articles about urban pandemics and the vulnerability of hotels against urban pandemics, we reached the importance of adapting resilient strategies. In the framework of Hamburg’s specific strategies for adaptation of resilient hotel typology, data collection of COVID-19 effects on Hamburg hotels from various hotel market and tourism reports of Hamburg gave us the overall situation of its hotel market during the COVID-19 pandemic and resilient target groups that can continue visiting Hamburg.

With the help of literature review about resilient hotels, we achieved the two resilient typologies that can serve for the two resilient target groups of the Hamburg hotel market.

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Findings and Discussions CHAPTER 4

4.1 COVID-19 Impacts of Hamburg Hotel Market As provided above, the tourism industry and hotel market highly depend on each other thus sudden shocks in the tourism industry can create huge depressions for hotels. According to Wang and Ritchie (2010), the hotel industry is one of the most fragile sectors against terrorist attacks, global financial recessions and pandemics like SARS and COVID-19, the biggest challenge of the decade (Khan et al., 2021).

Under social distancing and lock-down, people tend not to book for any hotels as they are afraid of the uncertain structure of the COVID-19 pandemic (Ranasinghe et al., 2020). This situation is visible especially for leisure purposes. It is recorded in the survey ,held in China, that when respondents are asked where they are likely to take their next trip, most of the interviewers do not find it safe to travel for leisure. This kind of fear can cause loss of millions of tourists who would like to experience Hamburg Hanseatic mercantile tradition by visiting the “UNESCO world heritage site consisting of the old warehouse district Speicherstadt and the Kontorhausviertel” (Christie & Co., 2017, pp.2) or alternative lifestyle in the trendy Schanze, St.Georg, St.Pauli (BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE, 2019). In addition to these, by attracting millions of leisure tourists banned musical theaters have a critical role in demand for Hamburg. Engels and Völkers Group (2020) emphasizes the increase in Hamburg overnight stays of 6.1% recorded in 2019 and the significant impact of major events such the Port Anniversary or musicals in generating further leisure demand in “Hotel Market Report”. In that manner cancelation of large events hit the Hamburg leisure tourism and its related hotel market income (Deka, 2020).

With the introduction of travel and hygiene restrictions, business travelers were forced to change their plans. Because restrictions on business travel differ from the ones on leisure tourism, classic business tourism has been keeping a better profile over leisure tourism during the pandemic. For example, the issuance of tourist visas have been terminated in all German embassies outside of Europe, while it is functioning for business purposes. Due to the restrictions, conferences, fairs, exhibitions were postponed and related business trips were dropped sharply (Hamburg Messe und Congress GmbH). The hotel sector, which hosted a large number of business guests who came to attend such major exhibitions, business meetings and conferences, suffered great losses. As the hotels close to the Hamburg Messe and the Congress Center were filled thanks to these two centers.

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“A raging pandemic, unleashed by a highly contagious COVID-19 virus, has triggered unprecedented restrictions not only on the movement of people but also on a range of economic activities’’ (Kumar, 2020, pp.5). The Hamburg hotel industry has been suffering crises since March 2020, and the biggest threat took place in the March/April lockdown. According to the Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein (2020), the sales in the Hamburg hospitality industry fell by 60.6% in the March lockdown. From January to August 2020, the decrease by 47% in occupancy rate and 57% in RevPAR compared to the previous year are recorded (DEKA, 2020).

The devastating effect of pandemics on the hotel industry is presented in the previous sections of this study. However, to understand the severity of the situation more, it is essential to discuss the length of recovery time after sudden shocks. Studies discussed that thanks to their resilience, the number of months for hotels to recruit dropped from 28 to 10 months between 2001- 2018 . Despite this positive fact, they also estimate different and probably more painful COVID-19 recovery scenarios for the hotel market. In that manner, adaptive and innovative vision to minimize the unpredictable consequences of future pandemics on the hotel market should be adopted. To do that, we emphasize the importance of the production of strategies in cooperation with location-based resilient measures. For the Hamburg hotel market, the resilient measures are the domestic target group and the high rate of tourists attending classical business meetings.

4.2 Selected Target Groups for Proposing Resilient Hotels for Hamburg against Urban Pandemics.

4.2.1 Domestic Trips In the studies of hotel market resilience against COVID-19, experts discuss that markets with a focus on national guests recover faster than those whose economic well-being depends on international guests (PKF Hotelexperts, 2020). This situation can be explained by the interrelation between border closures, travel restrictions, personal fear, and its detractive effect on human mobility which makes domestic trips attractive over international ones. The city of Hamburg forms a high proportion of domestic tourism by around 78% in 2018 and this rate stayed constant for the 7 ten years (State Statistical Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein as cited in Statista, 2020) Increasing the low rate of international tourism is due to lack of international recognition and fewer direct international flights have been a target for Tourismus Hamburg GmbH for years (Deloitte, 2014). However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitalizing domestic tourists came in handy and became an important indicator shaping the hotel market. It is estimated in “Hotel market Germany in the Corona crisis report” that this concrete feature of Hamburg can carry its hotel market to its pre-crisis level faster than other top 6, hopefully by 2024 (PKF Hotelexperts, 2020). This forecast is also promoted with the data showing the less RevPAR decline, except for April and May, when it is compared with other top locations (PKF Hotelexperts, 2020).

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Fig.10 : Hamburg hotels Rev-PAR rate Source:PKF Hotel Experts

4.2.1. Classical Business Meetings Hamburg business day trips are dominated by classical business meetings with the rate of 57.5% (“Business in Hamburg”, 2019). Due to restrictions to prevent the COVID-19 from spreading, business travels and face-to-face meetings are severely limited all over the world. About 43% of business trips were canceled and meetings started to be held online (Lubetsky, 2020). It is discussed that once the pandemic was over, a complete return to previous business travel habits is unlikely as holding online business meetings demonstrated to business executives that they could save on the cost of flights and hotels on business trips thanks to online meetings (Deka, 2020).

However, business typologies such as conferences, meetings, fairs, exhibitions can be replaced by digital technologies, for classic business meetings “executives prefer face-to-face meetings to negotiate deals and sell their products” (Hovhannisyan, 2012). Another study called “Knowledge Diffusion in the International Business Travel Network,” argues that business meetings are not only face-to-face interactions to solve business problems, but also knowledge sharing (Verband Deutsches Reisemanagement e.V. 2020). Business travelers bring their original technologies, knowledge and skills, use them and share with their partners and colleagues, moreover face to face communication is an important link in negotiations as well as in knowledge and technology transfer (Hovhannisyan, 2012), because it increases the productivity of companies and creates new production (Verband Deutsches Reisemanagement e.V. 2020). Replacing classic business meetings with alternative methods like phone calls or video conferences does not lead to successful results of the work (Hovhannisyan, 2012., Forbes, 2009., Harvard Business Review, 2009).

4.3 Resilient Hotel Typology for Hamburg Against Urban Pandemics As mentioned before, the city of Hamburg is equipped with strong two points; First one is domestic tourists which are the dominant visitors of the city (Hard, 2019) and the second one is hosting a high rate of classic business meetings which have a chance to keep the business tourism of Hamburg alive. Based on these two target groups, we concluded that providing them hotels adopted digital health safety measures, and flexible hotels for those who want to enjoy or benefit from hotels thanks to their wide range of function offerings. A hotel typology equipped with flexible and digital features which can serve resilient target groups of Hamburg in future pandemics.

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4.4 Conclusion Pandemic crises like Pig flu, Ebola, SARS, because of their nature of being easily transmitted and unpredictable (Samal, 2014), lead to long-term crises that affect economic and social conditions (Huremović, 2019). As a result, most often the severe consequences of dealing with crises negatively affect the ones who are not resilient against sudden shocks and uncertainties (Bas & Sivaprasad, 2020). In our case, our society has been facing a severe one, COVID-19, which began almost more than a year ago, to which the most severe restrictions on mobility and hygiene have been imposed (Prem et al., 2020). The consequences following the restrictions hit the tourism business, and the tourism-dependent businesses severely. For having the minimum damage from possible urban pandemics and keeping the recovery time at the minimum, this challenging time can be used for hotels to reconsider their actions for obtaining resilience. For Hamburg hotels, a scenario presents an optimistic move. For other cities, we also emphasize the importance of turning located-based strong points of hotels into a strategy to restrain future pandemics from taking control over hotels and we believe that this strategy can create more strong, less vulnerable future hotels for all cities.

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Images Figure 1: Image of the Hamburg. Source: Self created, Asli Suberker, 2020.

Figure 2: Image of the Hamburg. Source: Self created, Asli Suberker, 2020.

Figure 3: Image of the Hamburg. Source: Self created, Asli Suberker, 2020.

Figure 4: Number of overnight stays in Hamburg from 1999 to 2019. Source: Statista, 2019 Figure 5: Arrivals of overnight stays in Hamburg. Source: LB Immowert, 2020 Figure 6: Zoku Hotel. Source: livezoku.com.

Figure 7: Zoku Hotel. Source: livezoku.com.

Figure 8: Henn-Na Hotel.Source: Travelvoice.jp, 2017.

Figure 9: Henn-Na Hotel. Source: Jalan.net, Figure 10: Hamburg hotels Rev-PAR rate. Source: PKF Hotel Experts

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