Dr. Crisis, or How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Nat Chamayeva Olga Sarapulova

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

“The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them” Albert Einstein theoretical physicist

In the beginning of our research, the interim purpose of our studio was to define a win-win model for low-cost housing in Moscow. So, we started with a study of the Microrayon, the existing model for mass housing in Moscow, by looking at the preconditions for its emergence long before prefabricated panels became its flesh. After learning about Soviet Premier Nikita S. Khrushchev’s housing reform and the first Microrayons, we moved on to more recent developments, until we found ourselves in the present filled with the same Microrayons with a slightly fancier façade.

Having taken that journey, we were left with nothing.

Microrayon appeared to be the best shot on the market, and sales figures implied that customers were happy with it. Still, something was terribly wrong about it, and it had something to do with the quality of life embedded in it.

So, we decided to go deeper, changed the purpose of our studio to promotion of sustainable quality of life (of which affordable housing is only part) and started from scratch.

First, we examined the systemic restructuring of Russian society after the Soviet era, and what it did to mass housing.

There we discovered a chaotic interpolation of trends, which seemed contradictory on the surface, but turned to have logic inside. Gradually, a broader picture of mass housing crisis and its systemic causes distilled in our minds. (Part 1.

Stripping the Microrayon. Tractatus Logico-Vitalis) From there we left with a question: How does this ongoing crisis affect the quality of citizens’ lives and their cost of living? We had to find a way to make invisible things visible. So, the next step was to forecast what would happen to the mass housing system if all its major trends and controversies remained perfectly intact for the next

10-15 years. We identified key trends and projected their trajectory in the near future. The result was a sharp and powerful picture of an “Inertial Future” waiting around the corner unless something big happened. What could that be?

(Part 2. Existing Trends and the Inertial Future) Our next move was to take a powerful factor affecting many layers in the existing context and see what would happen if it was removed from the picture. We modeled a scenario for mass housing, in which the absence of such a factor caused another crisis, and discovered that it would result in an “Alternative Future” with completely different features. But how would we get there without the pain of going through another crisis? (Part 3. An Alternative Future and How to Get There) When we more closely examined the interim steps of an Alternative Future scenario, we discovered that some of them already have prototypes in the existing system of mass housing in Russia. And the ones that are (yet) missing belong to emerging and potential market spaces. These are all promising seeds of development that are tentative and vulnerable at present, but may be exactly what is needed to make a more sustainable quality of life possible.

Promoting, connecting, enhancing and accelerating them will drive a fundamental change of the housing system and set a new benchmark for the quality of life in Moscow. In the long run, this is the death of the Microrayon. No need to call on Dr. Crisis ever again. (Part 4. Skipping the Crisis.

Design of Public Awareness).

So in the end, the final goal of our research was to start a public awareness campaign delivering the results of our research, of which this publication is already a start.

1

Part I.

Stripping Microrayon. Tractatus Logico-Vitalis

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Tractatus Criticus Vitalis 1.0. Microrayon is a mutation of a Modernist model of mass housing which evolved in the context of Soviet ideology and planned economy.

2.1.2. Partial privatization of property that used to be owned by the state has resulted in a grey zone of inarticulate relations between private owners, business, citizens and state.

1.1. Microrayon is a type model of total planning of living environment. It has been and still is the dominating model of mass housing in Moscow Region.

2.1.2.1. The city is seeking to pass the responsibility and expenses for building infrastructure onto developers, who are obliged to hand it over to the state, who will then get to maintain it and receive payments from people. Developers are passing their expenses onto the customer. In the end, it’s always the citizen who pays a double price, but has no tools to control the quality of what he’s getting.

2.1.2.2. Quality of property maintenance and associated services is going down due to low awareness of property owners and lack of clarity in the relationshi p between managing companies, utility providers and residents.

2.1.2.3. State monopoly on the majority of lands has resulted in a corrupted system of tenders and auctions.

1.1.1. In theory, microrayon is supposed to be built around a network of utilities and social infrastructure with hig h density residential units strung onto it. It is to be connected to city center, industrial sites and other microrayons by a network of hig hways and public transport.

1.1.2. Microrayon is to be planned according to fixed standards of basic comfort, ensuring that all things required for satisfaction of people's minimal daily needs is accessible on foot.

1.1.2.1. The notion of minimal daily needs are established by a top-down system of standards, which prescribe what lifestyle, needs and values a citizen may possess.

1.1.3. Planning, building and maintenance of microrayon by state monopolies has determined hyper-centralized features and typification of this mass housing model.

1.2. Feedback is not a part of an existing model of mass housing. This puts customer values under a strict top-down control.

1.2.1. Real expectations and lifestyles of citizens are denied or ignored.

1.2.1.1. Quality of living space is treated from a quantitative point of view, e.g. amount of square meters per person,amount of insolation, distance between the doorstep and a kindergarten, and so on.

1.2.1.2. Existing model of mass housing ignores such criteria for quality of space as variety, adaptability, customization, self-regulation, sustainability, etc.

1.2.2. Remains of a socialist system of housing distribution weaken the power of customers and other tools for a supply of quality control.

1.2.3. In reality, distortions of total planning,austerity in cutting the costs for the state, priority of square meters over quality of life and other factors contribute to the deterioration of the living environment.

1.3. Model of microrayon is not designed to be economically effective. effective.

1.3.1. Microrayon only appears to be cheap to build, maintain and inhabit.

1.3.2. Built by state under planned economy, utilities, social and transport infrastructure had no in-built mechanisms of adaptation, sustainability and cost-effective business practice.

1.3.3. Large capital investments, cost of maintenance of housing and infrastructure and lack of adaptability make the microrayon model of mass housing unaffordable and ineffective for the city.

1.3.4. Personal cost of inhabitance, time and effort required to make this typology livable make microrayon unaffordable and ineffective for citizens.

2.0. The change of context caused a mass housing system transformation which was painful for the citizen.

2.1. Heritage of monopolist planned economy, state-centered interpretation of free market, lack of business management culture, proximity of private investors and large businesses to state capital and government have resulted in a re-monopolization of the housing industry and market.

2.1.1. Re-monopolization means that markets of construction materials, utilities, social and transport infrastructure and daily life services has been taken over by monopolies and oligopolies.

2.1.1.1. Key life support systems of the city are totally or largely controlled by monopolies for water, heating, electricity, gas, public transport, road infrastructure and so on.

2

2.2. Transformation of mass housing system has happened under the influence of a colossal inertia, which the system has acquired during the decades of pursuing nothing other than its own interest.

2.2.1. Inertia is evident in the dictatorshi p of hyper-centralized system of city management, planning, building and maintaining of housing.

2.2.1.1. Planning of new territorial developments is controlled by abstract, quantity-oriented logic of urban planning and outdated non-partici patory methods.

2.2.1.2. Lack of effective citizen involvement tools leaves them with no ways to control their living space and express their vision of city problems and perspectives.

2.2.1.2.1. There is one legal way for citizens to partici pate in the process of creating the city; a public hearing. But only few kinds of issues are to be discussed there,according to the urban code.

Most of problems citizens talk about at public hearings are not covered by that list and remain ignored by authorities.

2.2.1.3. Social policies and state order are keeping housing construction factories (DSK) from going out of the market due to real competition for the customer.

2.2.1.3.1. State order is the system of social support programs paid for by the city to support the poor and vulnerable citizens and provide them with free or heavily subsidized housing.

2.2.1.3.2. Housing oligopolies are receiving state orders for social housing construction in a non-competitive, informal way.

2.2.1.3.3. Artificial demand for low quality housing adds to the overall ineffectiveness of industrial mass housing construction.

2.2.1.3.4. Housing construction is regulated by outdated standards from the Soviet past.

2.2.1.4. State subsidies of utility fees and other basic services means that maintenance of housing has no motivation to be cost effective and no client oriented, either.

2.2.1.5. Large scale of social obligations taken by the state hamper the diversification of the social infrastructure market.

2.3. Beneath a fake fa“ade of superficial wealth there is an underlying systemic crisis. One of its major consequences for the citizens is the decrease in quality of life.

2.3.1. Systemic crisis is the manifestation of a profound inefficiency of existing city planning, management, economi activity, social policy and communication.

2.3.1.1. Systemic inefficiency is supported by superprofits from the export-based economy.

2.3.1.1.1 Despite hig h tax payments from exporters of energy resources and associated companies (about 20% of city budget), there is a 15% budget deficit in 2015. A deficit-free budget is not expected in the coming years. The largest Russian city can't support itself.

2.3.1.2. A rigid vertical management system denies any proactive tools to control the quality of offer on the housing market.

2.4 The mass housing system has no motivation to increase the cost-effectiveness of its expenses.

2.4.1. However bad the quality of offer is, there is a growing demand for it due to the growth of the city's population filled up by internal and international migrants.

2.4.2. There is no open competition on the housing and services market.

2.4.3. Preservation of existing situation is supported by a lack of tools and skills of citizen involvement in urban affairs, as well as abolition of TOS in 1992 and the following policy of weakening local self-government.

2.4.4. Existing system may be seen as effective, but only for a very limited amount of stakeholders who benefit from it and create obstacles for its transformation towards effectiveness for the masses.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

2.5. The state has not yet decided what game it wants to play: total planning and social state or free market economy and competition.

2.5.1. Since the state has no clear understanding of where it stands, it makes controversial and random attempts to stimulate free market environment using the top-down tools of the planned economy.

3.0. Transformation of the system has resulted in quality of life decrease and cost of living increase for the citizens.

3.1. Quality of life is a subtle matter of urban environment which consists of recurrent possibilities for the citizens to have choice in achieving an enjoyable lifestyle.

3.2. Quality of life decrease is caused by use of an outdated approach to urban planning and prevalence of quantity-based criteria for an evaluation of the living environment.

3.2.1. Model of microrayon inherited from the Soviet past remains the only widespread typology of affordable housing, but it now fails to satisfy even the basic needs of citizens.

3.2.1.1. After the shift to the free market was proclaimed, the state has decided to relieve the burden of the most costly and least cost effective ingredients of quality of life in microrayon: namely construction of utilities and social and transport infrastructure.

3.2.1.2. Existing monopolies for vital resources and services prevent these spheres to become truly competitive and fig ht for the customer.

3.2.1.3. Traffic problems and the inaccessibility of public transport in many areas, an exhaust of engineering networks, a deficit of social infrastructure and public space, low quality of services and communication, a lack of customization and individuality, and no opportunities to choose a desired lifestyle all contribute to the deterioration of quality of life in microrayon and increase the cost of living there.

3.2.1.4. Since the collapse of Soviet system, needs of citizens have undergone many fundamental changes. But the model lifestyle in-built in the model of microrayon has not changed.

3.2.2. The notion of «quality of life life» » is not analyzed or defined by authors of city government strategic programs.

3.2.2.1. There are many city programs that claim to improve quality of life, but none of them explain what is meant by that. The government states that 73% of the city budget within the next 5 years will be spent on quality of life improvement for the citizens. However there's no definition of what it means for specific groups of citizens with their unique profiles and needs.

3.2.2.1.1. The quality-based notion of œquality of lifeB is de facto replaced by the quantity-based notion of «standart of life» life».

3.2.2.1.2. Evaluation of city programs success is totally determined by outdated quantitative methods inherited from the Soviet past; such as amount of square meters of living space per person, spending power, amount of schools, etc.

3.2.2.1.3. City programs by branches of city government are disintegrated, they are not connected by a common strategic vision. Each of them understands the meaning of «quality of life» life » in the best interest of its own administration.

3.2.2.2. Business plans of developers are based on marketing data, such as spending power, demographics and similar parameters of «standard of life life» ».

3.2.3. Real needs of citizens and quality of life desired by their specific groups are not a subject of any systematic analysis. City housing policy and other programs are not based on any analysis of such kind.

3.2.3.1. Recently a number of experts have started discussing Russia's newborn middle class and their emerging values, but there is no systematic research of this social group.

3.2.3.2. There is almost no methodology for evaluating needs and desires of citizens. Random polls by Russian poll agencies don't create a full picture.

3.2.3.3. The latest census of population as a source of 3.2.3.3. data about citizens (amount of them,their real income, daily migration and occupation) has been widely criticized by professionals who have no trust in the numbers provided.

3.2.3.4. Neither experts nor decision-takers have reliable and sufficient research-based data which they could use for urban planning.

Part I.

Stripping Microrayon. Tractatus Logico-Vitalis

3.3. Increase of cost of living is caused by the oligopoly-based structure of the market, blurring the responsibility for vital infrastructure, its deficit and exhaust, and many other factors, all of which are paid for by the citizen more than just once.

3.3.1. Citizens buy dwellings at a market price which contains costs for construction of infrastructure carried out by developers.

3.3.1.1. Shift of responsibility from the state onto developers leads to a decrease of its quality since developers have no long term commercial interest attached to it.

3.3.1.2. Citizens pay their utilities and service bills, as well as taxes, partially intended for the construction and upkeep of the same infrastructure.

3.3.1.3. Finally, citizens pay a price for adaptation of uncomfortable living environment to their needs, as well as for a painful adaptation of their lifestyle to the unfriendly environment.

3.3.1.4. Citizens attempt to compensate lack of quality of life by excessive and demonstrative consumption.

3.3.1.4.1. Consumptionism provides a short-term relief. It allows to benefit from financial welfare, but brings neither the desired quality of life, nor confidence in the future.

3.3.2. The leftover princi ple describes how the city treats maintenance of infrastructure, especially utilitiy networks.

3.3.2.1. The state provides no means for proactive development of infrastructure. Existing policies are concentrated on fixing what has already broken, not timely maintenance, prevention and construction of additional capacities.

3.4. Future strategy for the city is defined in a number of 5-year plans and strategic programs, all of which are built around the concept of growth, not sustainable development.

3.4.1. City programs offer no strategic vision of the city after 2016. They offer no long-term strategy for increasing their own effectiveness and improving the quality of life.

4.0. Citizens don’t realize their rig hts for the quality of life as citizens of the city.

4.1. Citizens may be ready to stand for their constitutional rig hts as citizens of the state, but they possess no tools and skills to express their needs and desires as citizens of the city.

4.1.1. Discomfort and dissatisfaction by low quality of life is often understood in political terms both by the government and citizens themselves.

4.1.2. The state follows the inertial of total closure from the citizens. It is reluctant to moderate a real dialogue and learn about people's changing needs in order to make them the foundation of decision-taking. decision-taking.

4.1.3. Partici pants of civil protests haven’t yet managed to set up claims concerning their daily life and ways of its improvement.

4.2. Crisis of awareness is triggered by lack of understanding, what it means to be a citizen, what are the challenges and opportunities and what is the desired future citizens want to live in.

4.2.1. Most of citizens don't see the full picture of systemic crisis. Adaptation to any unfriendly environment has become their vital skill. Many of them got used to accepting the existing state of affairs and imagine no alternative. Suffering from stress, anxiety, discomfort and depression, of which they are getting used to it.

4.2.2. A tradition of low personal responsibility and lack of property ownershi p culture push the citizens towards relying on the state that will supposedly take care of them and their living space.

4.2.3. Despite increased consumption and maturing of middle class, citizens don't expect much from their living environment. They have nothing to compare their life to and express no long-term vision of the future they may desire.

5.0. We don't realize what we stopped caring about.

3

Part I.

Stripping Microrayon. Tractatus Logico-Vitalis

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Things We Stopped Caring About Microrayon is a barren living environment. Its adjustment to life requires citizens to spare their money,time and effort. There are certain things that we learn to get used to and stop caring about in the process,of which there are some extreme and random examples below. On most cases, this is a costly and painful adaptation,which most of us pass unknowingly, for it is not a matter of desire or choice.

Urban environment

Living in traffic, spending 1/4 of the day in a car and getting to enjoy it as a fortress of environment we have total control of Making daily moves to a distance comparable to five diameters of an average European city Forsaking our rig hts and best interests just to avoid red tape, unpleasant contact and waiting in lines Ski pping public space as gap and a source insecurity, unwanted contact or crime Having no faith in the future,getting used to not knowing when currency would drop or water would stop running from the tap Being constantly exposed to a unwanted body contact with a multitude of strangers in public transport and public space Having thousands of people living above and below we in an apartment block and not knowing almost any of them Having no free access to the city, always stumble across barriers, walls, gated communities and VIP signs screaming that we're unwanted

Communication

Placing no trust in others, expecting to be cheated, never smiling to strangers, Smiling at the thoug ht of citizen control over space larger avoid being talked into a conversation with people we don't know than a corridor he shares with his neig hbors, at best Keeping the disabled locked in their apartments and out of sig ht, ignoring the homeless, as if they don't exist, and being invisible, if we're homeless, a beggar or a disabled person Avoiding unwanted communication, closing ourselves off others by headphones and cell phones and making our eyes blank and our ears deaf when ride on the subway Having no sense of community, not knowing our neig hbors, not saying hi, keeping away from collective action, look at the common space as a waste Rather paying for all on our own than taking courage to try and talk our neig hbors into sharing

Customer control

Paying twice without knowing or consent, pay for public goods that bring nothing to those who pay for it, supporting the ineffectiveness of its all by our taxes and inertial consent Paying hidden service fees to cell phone operators and buying property not knowing how much maintenance will cost over time Having no customer control over price & quality of provision, having no choice in selection of things that are really important Instinctively practicing short-term thinking, not thinking of the waste, taking loans without caring for legal conditions leaving analysis of costs in the long run for some time in the future when we have time Giving bribes to the traffic police, head of kindergarten and school, a doctor, a judge, to anyone who's in charge of something we fear or need Denying ourselves of good things because we can't afford them, having ages ahead on a mortgage and feeling this burden it going to be there forever

Public involvement

Having limited or no access to information, not really knowing how many people live in the city, what they do, where they live, how they move, and what the government plans are for the nearest future and where the next Skolkovo or expansion of Moscow will occur or why Being more of a reci pient than an activist when it comes to the common good, having no tools to customize the city to fit our needs and be an initiator of city management, and not even wishing to be one Faking consent, not voting, not supporting, not protesting, not even obtaining, not thinking critically, not, not, not Not knowing who's in charge and what needs to be done if there's something Wishing someone else would take all the difficult decisions in life, seeing no need for fair elections or any sort of public involvement we need, suffering throug h legal procedures of dealing with bureaucracy Pushing away responsibility for what's outside of direct control, blaming others for own life - migrants, parents, Americans, Jews, the rich or people in power, rarely thinking of things that we could change on our own

Citizen awareness

Thinking of ourselves in terms of the poor or the rich, the weak or the mig hty, showing dissent at displays of domination, but being ready to forsake it all for "place under the sun" once there's a chance to jump the line Not asking for much, having no image of desired future, not wishing to think of what's coming, dreading it's Measuring success by things we own rather then things we enjoy,confusing quality for quantity, playing along the rules of the game, standing for customer rig hts, not for citizen rig hts, not knowing what quality of life is and how to get there Covering up for lack of quality of life by consumption, drinking, smoking, taking drugs, buying things we don't need, always craving for more "of of that thing" thing Putting money first,and waiting till later and later till we can provide for children, until we find we or our spouse are too old to have them Not caring for what we stopped noticing Not knowing what it means to be a citizen Not noticing what we've stopped caring for

4

Part II.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

A Magnifying Glass for Making Things Visible Systemic crisis of mass housing is a mash, some things are visible and some are not. Many visible ones is known by everyone who has ever lived in a big city. Others are less evident, but there's nothing new about them for a Muscovite. Some are hardly known by anyone except a policymaker or an expert. And daily experience of citizens remains known almost solely to themselves.

In order to make invisible things visible, and banal things - an assault on the eye, we've decided to increase the contrast of existing contradictions, ruptures, absurdities and oversights. This allowed us to see through the superficial ripple of chaotic facts and single out major trends. We were wondering, where are they driving us to? We decided to choose most vibrant of the trends, pretend that nothing woulda change in the logic of their deployment and see where they would take us by 2025.

Positioning a magnifying glass of extrapolation upon existing trends allowed us to see the Inertial version of the Future. Then we tried to imagine what it would feel like to live there. The result had a bitter dystopian taste in it.

List of programmes Long-term target program "Residence" for the Moscow region for 2009-2012 http://rmsk.mosreg.ru/userdata/dol-48841.doc State program "Social support for residents of the city of Moscow" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/BIG_2.pdf State Program for Moscow "Development of municipal engineering infrastructure" for 2012-2016 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127259 State Program for Moscow "Development of Transport System" on 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/transport_gos_programma_depr_i_df1.pdf State Program for Moscow "Education for the Capital" for 2012-2016 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127258 State Program for Moscow "Energy in Moscow" for 2012-2016 and up to 2020 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127206 State Program for Moscow "Housing" for 2012-2016 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127271 State Program for Moscow "Moscow Sports" on 2012-2016 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127239 State Program for Moscow "Open Government" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/open-gov.pdf State Program for Moscow "Promotion of economic activity" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/Gosprogramma_Stimulirovanie.pdf State Program for Moscow "Safe City" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/Programma_Bezopasnyi_gorod.pdf State Program for Moscow "Urban Policy" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/Gradostroitelnaya_politika [1]. pdf State Program for Moscow 'property and land policy of the city of Moscow" for 2012-2016 http://mos.ru/documents/index.php?id_4=127240 State Program of Moscow "Development of the Moscow City Health (Capital Health)" for 2012-2016 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/zdravookhranenie.pdf The "Strategy of socio-economic development of the city of Moscow in 2025" http://www.depir.ru/content/c384-page1.html The strategy of socio-economic development till 2020 "Strategy 2020" http://2020strategy.ru/data/2012/03/13/1214585985/itog.pdf

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

How to Design Crisis: Notes on Methodology Methodology of our research consists of three phases: 1. Extrapolation of existing trends around mass housing into the future 2. Prognostic scenario for alternative future to be achieved through a major system crisis 3. Identification of existing and emerging precedents (charged particles) which can allow for this alternative future to happen without the need to go through the major system crisis

Passive Future Methodology of Extrapolation Vocabulary* Trend is a long term development tendency for a specific set of data. Trend is basic element for extrapolation methodology.

Extrapolation is a research and modeling methodology built around projection of existing trends into the future, as if nothing else changes in the system and all trends keep their pace and direction. It is not the goal of our research to give exact estimations of projected numeric data. We are focused on identifying the major underlying direction of trends that are well established, as well as emerging.

Limit of extrapolation is the end date of prognosis.

Development tendency is a certain common direction of development, its long term evolution vector. * Based on “Basic economic prognosis” by Gromova N.M., Gromova N.I., Academiya Estestvoznaniya publishing house, 2006 For our prognosis, we've chosen year 2025 as the limit of extrapolation. There are several reasons explaining the choice of this date.

Currently there are over a hundred of various city development programs and sub-programs. Majority of them are limited by a 5 year perspective. Zhilishche program for affordable housing is looking at 2016 as its final point, and there’s no vision of what’s to be expected beyond that ultimate date. 2020 is the horizon for Strategiya 2020 strategiya vision by leading Russian experts on modernization and renewal, who are delivering their vision to the federal Ministry of Economy Development. Finally, Strategiya Socialno-Economicheskogo Razvitiya Moskvy do 2025 goda sets its final focal point at 2025. This is the ultimate “end of the world” date for Moscow. Nobody dares to project what may happen after that.

Our ambition is to see beyond official and related prognostic models. By making a step further, we create our own vision of mass housing and affordable living in Moscow, if nothing changes and all trends continue their development in the current direction.

Our extrapolation is built around 5 major trends that we chose for their value for the citizen and impact upon the whole system: 1. Amount and physical quality of living space 2. Sufficiency and wear of utilities and engineering networks 3. Sufficiency and quality of social infrastructure 4. Efficiency and accessibility of transport infrastructure 5. Citizen awareness and involvement in the urban development These trends are represented in an analytical format. Extrapolation is built around comparison of city development programs

by Moscow administration between themselves and with reality.

Major mismatches and disconnections have been discovered and emphasized by projecting them further into the future.

Development trends which we identified by looking at available poll results, as well as expert interviews and independent estimations are represented in the format of a newspaper from the future, from which we learn the impact of those trends upon daily life of the citizens.

As a result of extrapolation, we have developed a vision of Inertial Future which is most likely to happen, unless something major happens and brings a transformative change onto the system. Quality of life in this expected future keeps going down, while the cost of living never stops to increase.

5

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Part II.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

87 Microrayons

More than will be built around Moscow by 2025 Moscow

Moscow Region

Population, mln people 11.6 The goal of state program:

1

2

+

0.9

= 12.45

6.8

2

+

0.75

+

3,8

4

= 7.5

Provision of housing, sq.m.

To increase the provision of housing to

2

18.7

24.2 sq.m. per person in Moscow Region

3

+

5,5

= 24.2

1

27.2

4

= 31

1

Required to built, mln sq.m.

11.6 *5.5 + 0.9*24.2

= 85

2012

State programs for Moscow and Moskovskaya Oblast are totally disconnected. After comparing them we discovered that fulfillment goals proclaimed by Government leaders would require construction bln of sq.m. just to meet what’s promised,without the demand for demolishing housing in an unsatisfactory state and replacing it by new.

Today, almost all construction of mass housing is happening far outside MKAD, on the territory of The Moscow Region (please see map on Transportation trends page).

From these estimations, a following conclusion is derived. State programs for Housing are not only dramatically disconnected between each other and unreasonably optimistic in positioning existing trends. They are also extremely short-term and offer no strategic vision of the Future.

63

6

20% of new mass housing is social

%

68%

of housing is built

by

5 leading companies 11

business class

comfort class

25%

Moscow Moscow Region 8

monolith + brick

36%

55%

economy class

panel

45%

64%

Moscow Moscow Region

Low housing affordability

only

5%

of Muscovites can afford to buy an apartment

References and sources: 1 Federal Housing Program Zhilishche for Moscow 2 Rosstat, Prognozed Rate of Moscow Growth by 0,73% a year + calculation error http://www.perepis-2010.ru/news/detail.php?ID=6619 3 Moskomstat, 2010 http://moscow.gks.ru/moskva/stroit/default.aspx 4 Federal Housing Program Zhilishche for Moskovskaya Oblast’ 5 Poll by FOM http://bd.fom.ru/report/cat/home_fam/hosehom/d071824 6 Most optimistic of experts (those who add a “grey” salary in their calculations) claim housing in Moscow is affordable only to the richest 5%, Strategy 2025 7 Нousing Аffordability Rate (House Price to Income Ratio) http://www. numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp 8 Analytical ballot by RWAY company www.rway.ru 9 MIC Real Estate statistics http://www.mir-realty.ru/ 10 http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2012/02/06/market/562949982738350 11 http://kommersant.ru/doc/501020/print 12 http://analitika.zem.ru/partners_text/3968/ 13 http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2012/02/06/market/562949982738350 14 http://moscow.gks.ru/munstat/mo/2010/Ясенево2010/29.htm 15 Expiration date for a typical P-44T series is http://dsk1.ru/houses/p44t/ 16 Poll on www.metrinfo.ru website

2016

13

12

Expiration date for a type panel building is 100 years. Looking into the distant future, by 2116 we will need to relocate about 5 million people due to expiration of this newly built amount of Microrayons. Not to mention all Microrayons built in the Soviet past,which are about to expire soon or already have.

2012

Current situation

Developers seduce buyers by a promise of a diversity of apartment layouts,attractive architectural solutions (fa“ades and urban design elements).

Since the market prices for newly built apartments are hig h and growing and they remain unaffordable for the dominating majority of Moscow region residents, the goals proclaimed by state programs can only be met (theoretically) by providing subsidized or state-rented social housing.

As a result of the widely promoted state programs for housing, 134 bln sq.m. will be built in Moscow Region by 2016. This is approximately 87 clones of Yasenevo (a type Microrayon built in 1970s). [14]

2016

134 000 000 sq.m. has to be built in order to make the announced plans come true

Many large-panel construction projects in the Moscow region are often built as barren islands,totally isolated from any means of public transport,deficient of roads and urban infrastructure.

A type model and the most frequent typology of mass housing today is a microrayon of 16-storey prefabricated panel houses.

Present situation is a result of a trend inherited from the past due to systemic inertia of mass housing. 63% of all residential housing construction is carried out by 5 leading oligopoly companies. State procurement (goszakaz) of social housing makes up to a 20% of the market, which allows for the outdated type panel producing factories (DSK) to stay onboard, protecting them from bankruptcy.

6.8 *3.8 + 0.75*3.8 = 49

6

30 years is requred for an average citizen to buy an apartment

2

only % of muscovites only 2 % of muscovites believe their current dwelling is an ideal home

72 % of muscovites consider a 1-room apartment unaffordable

5

16

7

9

Part II.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

100% wear of pipes today is how much by 2025? the neig hboring Zhilishche program, not to mention Moscow Expansion. In reality, in most cases, the city simply shifts the responsibility for creating utility networks and engineering infrastructure onto developers as a condition for signing an investment program. For example, if a developer wants to build a Microrayon for 50.000 people, he will often be asked to build not only all the infrastructure for his development, but also a power distribution center that will serve some 500.000 people.

Neither the Zhilishche housing program, nor the technical task for Concept of Moscow Agglomeration take into account the critical physical state of engineering infrastructure.

According to expert estimates, the wear of electric networks in Moscow exceeds 40 - 50%, which in turn affects the hig h level of energy losses in technological networks, leading to a colossal number of breakages in the system.

Today, more than 50% of thermal generation facilities and heating systems of all major companies and more than 50% water and 64% of sewer pi pes are worn out by 100%.

The general wear of gas infrastructure in Moscow is approximately 60%. Most of the repairs are happening post factum.

The state of engineering infrastructure is so critical that even smallest external factors (such as several days of cold weather above the average standard) cause the system start massively breaking.

And there’s absolutely no motivation for him to control the quality, since it’s not the developer who gets to maintain it and get the cost of construction back over time, but the state which hasn't spent a ruble. Interested in cutting the costs of this extra work with no market sense, the developer only builds it according to minimal quality standards. And nobody in the system is looking ahead and acts proactively to predict and satisfy increased demand for infrastructure to accompany the intensive housing construction in Moscow region in the coming years.

The inertia of the past, e.g. the monopolization of the housing services market, subsidies by the state and lack of any motivation to evolve has supported much inefficiency in the system.

"Housing and utilities maintenance have turned into the backyard of monopolists. This is a dead end for housing and communal services."

Igor Leonenko, head of Acive Citizens School.

All actions taken by the Government are aimed at expensive, but superficial repairs, not at creating an effective system of sustainable service and a competitive market. The amount of construction and expansion of utility facilities scheduled to be built by 2016 according to the state program of development of engineering infrastructure is inadequately low. Since the current shortage of electricity in the Moscow power system is already 14%, by 2016 this figure will increase to 36%.

9

Housing programs have no strategy for creating physical infrastructure for the new volume of housing already in-built in

Thus, in the performance of the obligations of housing programs, the entire burden of housing will be on more than a half-worn engineering infrastructure of the city. This will inevitably lead to disruptions in the supply of housing and communal services and the subsequent collapse of the city engineer.

Moscow has a hig h density of residential housing, and the wear of its utilities is very hig h. Expansion of Moscow and development of its newly acquired territories will result in a dramatic growth of infrastructure maintenance funds deficit and cost of upkeep of public space.

1

Gas supply

96 %

4

The heat losses in the networks

%

88 %

of pi peline owned by state companies

only of gas pi pes 3 exceed their sheduled wear (over 40 years) (o 3

2

51%

Moscow energy system deficit by 2016

total wear 2 of heating networks

55 % 7

Depreciation of heat stations

60 %

40 %

networks with 100% of scheduled wear

total wear of electrical network

1

60 % total wear 1 of gas infrastructure

2

%

of pi pes are planned to be renovated by 2016

60 % total wear 5 of water supply systems

of heat is produced state-owned companies

- 32 %

Water supply and sewage

34 %

Heating supply

54 %

5

of water supply systems has to be replaced

65 %

5

55 % 5 systems with 100% of scheduled wear

total wear 5 of sewage systems

65%

6 of street sewerage system has to be replaced

7

64%

7

total wear of sewer pi pes

Electricity

1

Collector network required to realize plans planned to be built existing capacity load wear

New microrayons will put an additional load on the existing infrastructure,which can bear no more

References and sources: 1 Strategy 2025 2 Moscow “Heating Infrastructure Development” program 3 Moscow “Gas Infrastructure Development” program 4 ОАО Mosenergo http://solex-un.ru/sites/solex-un/files/energo_review/konsolidirovannyy_obzor_--problemy_effektivnogo_teplosnabzheniya--.pdf

5 Subprogram "Development and modernization of water supply and sanitation system and technical water supply in Moscow" 6 Subprogram "Development and modernization of the collector farms in City of Moscow " 7 Department of Fuel and Energy of Moscow Government 8 State Program for Moscow "Energy in Moscow" for 2012-2016 and up to 2020 9 Active Citizens School www.shagovec.ru

7

Part II.

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

"I'm flying a helicopter.

Buy one too, and you won't need roads" Boris Gromov, Governor of Moscow Region "All who are driving along the streets of Moscow can witness the collapse of transport system with their own eyes. It's obvious that no other city in the world has this problem at such a complex scale. Therefore, we must pay extra attention to this problem in our work every day, until the end of Moscow's history"

Moscow is already a megalopolis with a hig h residential density and an ambition to grow into a Global City and Financial center. Already today, at this hour, everywhere inside the city and on major roads outside it,there are traffic jams that cost Moscow and its residents a fortune. Roads, parking spots, joints, transportation hubs and all that comes along with it is in a huge deficit, and the quality of existing infrastructure needs urgent attendance. The overload of city center contributes to the inefficiency of Moscow's traditional radial-and-circle network of roads and streets. All together, those factors are a symbol of a forthcoming transport system collapse.[11]

Sergey Sobyanin, Mayor of Moscow to Vedomosti Newspaper, August 15, 2012

over

In every poll, traffic jams are on top of the rating for assessment of Moscow's major troubles. And the city has no long-term strategy for increasing accessibility of public transport in the new Microrayons. New housing construction is happening in Moscow region,alongside the hig hways that already are the most overloaded. Plans for Moscow metro construction are not enoug h to satisfy a fraction of existing need,not to think of the future. And the project for MMZhD Railway reconstruction is a barely visible mirage.

40 % of jobs

of jobs are located within the boundaries of Moscow old downtown center

$

Currently, the city has neither instruments nor vision to control Moscow transport system and drive its development on a strategic level.[8]

10

50 bln

Transport development planned expenses in 2011-2016

8

2

1.3 mln

$

Annual damage from traffic jams

8

Major highways on the map of housing construction in Moscow and the Moscow region City has no long-term strategy for increasing accessibility of public transport in the new Microrayons

existing metro station metro station planned for 1 construction in 2020 being built mass housing

10

New housing construction is happening in Moscow region,alongside the hig hways that already are the most overloaded.

9

to Moscow Moscow Mosco w center center

from Mos Mosc Moscow cow cent cow center er

6 3

Road congestion in 2011, Yandex traffic

Average travel time and distance to work (school) 7 Distance Walking Waiting Driving Car Bus Ride Train Ride Other Overall

18.87 km 11.57 min 4.14 min 10.29 min 10.14 min 22.86 min 0.71 min

4.5

22 %

2

100 minutes

mln 6

official number of cars in Moscow

10

+

km/h

average speed on the hig hways in the "rush hour" 5

0.6 mln

5

metro stations are overloaded

cars entering Moscow from the Region every day

11

2

of population not served by metro in 2011

km/h

2

speed of public transport in the city in "rush hour"

16 %

8

of citizens are satisfied with the quality of transportation

100 km

2

41%

2

deficit of the metro network todayy "Due to lack of funding the planned dates of construction and commissioning of metro facilities fold behind the required."

2

References and sources: 1 GUP “Moskovskiy Metropoliten ”, http://news.metro.ru/mmnews2012.html 2 State Program for Moscow "Development of Transport System" on 2012-2016 3 Moscow Statistical Yearbook, 2010 4 Subprogram "Highways, streets and roads Network” 5 http://www.memoid.ru/node/Perspektivy_borby_s_avtotransportnym_kollapsom_v_Moskve 6. The number of registered cars in Moscow by January 1,2012, according to traffic police data

8

7 http://www.numbeo.com 8. Strategy 2025 9 Based on DublGIS data 10 http://www.memoid.ru/node/Perspektivy_borby_s_avtotransportnym_kollapsom_v_Moskve 11 Mechanism to Overcome StrategicGaps 12 http://ria.ru/society/20100702/251750868.html

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Part II.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

If you want a place on a cemetery by 2025, better sign up now!

Construction of schools,kindergartens,medical and sports facilities brings no economic benefits for developers,just like roads and engineering infrastructure they must build under the terms of investment contracts they sign with Moscow Government.

All these projects are usually built within what’s called œthe social burdenB,meaning that it’s an unwanted surplus to the project. By raising the price, developers will cover their costs at ease. But it’s the customer who ultimately pays for this assumed responsibility of the state,which is already covered by the taxes paid by citizens.

Age born

10

39%

34

57%

5 of 10

4% 4

only

3

2025

maternity hospitals in Moscow, state-oned only

undetected congenital anomalies

perinatal mortality

of children attend 4 kindergartens

20

2

1

in the world for infant mortality

only

Despite the statement on establishment of privateand-public partnershi p for kindergartens,it is planned to build only 300 private kindergardens by 2016.

Age born

10 %

only on

growth of amount of kindergrtens by 2016

of private kindergartens

4

37

on % the need for kindergarten will increase by 2016

4

20

children have developmental disorders

10 % 4

only

only on

1%

growth of amount of school by 2016

of private schools

4

30

14 % hig her than the planned capacity of the

of parents are not satisfied with the quality of education and forced to attract a private tutor

need for schools by 2016

4

60

$

6

2

5 760 250

4

Healthcare development expenses of 2011 Moscow budget

for Moscow out of 88 by Health Care Quality reiting

49% are not satisfied with the quality of Healthcare

9

40

81place

50

30

existing number of school

43% 40

10

Prignose of Gender and age structure of the Russian population

Gender and age structure of the Russian population

9

major reasons of infant mortality

73 place

2012

Newly built microrayons,as well as recenly built ones,suffer from a dramatic deficiency of social infrastructure,not to mention the lowness of quality on total majority of cases. It takes years,sometimes decades,before proper social infrastructure appears in dense residential areas. Until it happens,citizens must learn to adapt.

only $

deaths from alcohol grew by times 5 since 2000

8 600

50

4

Healthy Lifestyle Promotion

2.5

=

1 kg

of carrots

per

60

1 000 Moscovites

70

70 Moscow's cemeteries provide 8

80

only

10%

of needs, the rest of deceased are buried in the regions, or cremated

1

cemetery is open for new graves in Moscow

7

7 days

$ 8

16 000

arrangement to get a grave without waiting

8

80

waiting in line at the burial Only 1 state company has the rig ht to bury

men women References and sources: 1 CIA World Factbook , July 2010 2 Moscow Statistical Yearbook, 2009 3 State Program of Moscow "Development of the Moscow City Health (Capital Health)" for 2012-2016 4 State Program for Moscow "Education for the Capital" for 2012-2016

5 Moskomstat 6 Among the 88 largest cities in the world, Health Care Index for 2012, http://www.numbeo.com 7 www.mosritual.ru 8 http://ria.ru/moscow/20110512/373189277.html 9 Rosstat

9

Part II.

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Introduction to the trend

Citizen Involvement: Breaking the Waves

Residents of Brateevo on a strike against industrial zone construction, 1989© oldmos.ru

T

wenty-four years ago, moved by the falling standard of living and inefficiency in the city management system, residents of the Brateevo* microrayon in Moscow decided to take control over vital matters. The citizens of Brateevo of created a Territorial Public SelfGovernment (TOS) in order to take matters into their own hands and exert greater control over housing, utilities, healthcare, the environment, transport, public spaces, services, food, sports, recreation and leisure.

After realizing that the real control over vital matters remained out of their grasp and that they had no tools to effect change, they made an attempt to change how selfgovernment worked, to make it fit their needs.

As it happened, the system was so weakened and inert that it seemed to give away rather easily. Cramps were shaking its sick body and something was happening inside. Active citizens were calmed down by promises of upcoming power and wealth, so that they would create a future that they desired so much with their hands.

But it soon turned out that it was not the citizens who took control of the system. It was the system that took them silently into itself and drained their discontented energy.

In return, citizens were given a ghost of order and promises of an improved standard of living.

Those who chose not to stop were invited upstairs and stayed. Or they were asked to calm down in an unambiguous manner. In the meanwhile, the system gained power and weight.

Direct management practiced by the TOS was gradually replaced by a sluggish, indirect structure, which was cut short from all sides and allowed citizens to either accept (in local

10

municipal councils) or comment (at public hearings) on decisions that were still being taken elsewhere. As for direct control, it was now limited to the right to choose and be chosen, not to mention the referendums (none of three referendums has endured intact).

reached the top, where they shrugged it off, for it happened every once in a while that a wrinkle appeared on an otherwise smooth surface. It was always removed at no effort by another injection. Or smoothed out on its own. Or removed by someone who desired no change.

Carried away, charmed and distracted by their pursuit of an improved standard of living, without even noticing it

So it happened this time. But anxiety stayed and returned again, gradually rising higher, getting into the ones who had never asked questions. Until once there was a burst, for a reason the system failed to recognize at all.

Then another one, and another. And despite its heavy weight, its smart arrangement and its power balance,

The citizens were forsaking that fragile illusion of control and involvement which left a trace somewhere in the back of their heads.

Their alienation from the system of government was gradually growing. Some of them learned to use its strength and flaws, they learned to walk steady quite soon. Others chose to disconnect and escape to a parallel world. A third group chose not to choose, relying on the stream. The fourth group was hit by its flow and thrown to the side. In any case, the majority learned to resign.

Blessed is the oil and its price, which kept all of them fed during dark times of global crisis.

From that side, the system expected no threat.

As the years went by, more of kids, teenagers and youth witnessed or kept the memories of their parents during the times when the system fluttered. They started wondering, what’s the point of this system at all? Doesn’t it cost too much? Who only pays and who wins? And what is this black hole that seems to be sucking the quality out of life, so that living becomes harder with every new day?

By that time, information networks entangled the city thick, so signals of anxiety traveled fast.

They were carried on and increased by those who had recently felt uneasy for a reason they didn’t know, and by those who felt fear. And it

...something in the system broke. Or maybe it was the people who fed it with its blood.

And then, an assault on the eye, all its costs and waste, narrowness and self-interest, cruelty and monstrous inefficiency became known. It turned out that the citizens had long borne this burden on their backs without noticing it, for they had become so used to it that they almost stopped caring.

Half a year ago, moved by the deteriorating quality of life and inefficiency of city management system, citizens of Moscow microrayon Brateevo…

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Part II.

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Origins of the Public Territorial Self-Government in Brateevo Microrayon

Evening Moscow newspaper, 1986 Brateevo is a microrayon in the southeast of Moscow. A landfill for solid waste was located there in 50s-70s, as well as a number of operating industrial facilities.

In the mindset of authorities, this area was designated to the placement of industrial facilities, such as a complex of 32 industrial facilities, including a paper plant planned to be largest in Europe.

Construction of the industrial zone was due to begin in the summer of 1988.

Brateevo was planned as a purely

working-class district, consisting of four residential neighborhoods for builders and workers of the upcoming industrial zone. No leisure and sports facilities were built; there was no free-standing pharmacy or a movie theater, or anything of that kind.

The planners thought that the working class could do fine without most of the social infrastructure and without leisure and sports facilities as well. It was a "sleeping area" with the nearest metro station within a 15-20 minutes reach by bus (no traffic at that time) and unimaginably large crowds at bus stops in an hour "peak". The abundance of industrial enterprises around Brateevo led to a serious air pollution in the neighborhood. Before 1988 no information was available about it to the public in no way.

By 1987, forty seven apartment blocks were built, and people moved in. Average "brateevets" (resident of Brateevo) of late 80's is a man in his 30s, suffering from

Brateevo as seen by planners, Evening Moscow, 1987. Š oldmos.ru

stress and various problems associated with children, juvenile crime, alcoholism, and transport.

Residents of 3rd and 4th microdistricts of Brateevo were more exposed to the impact of negative factors. Ironically, the only housing co-op was located in the 4th. Its residents were more organized, affluent, mobile and wealthy than other residents of Brateevo. It was a kind of a prototype "middle class", which found himself in the midst of the most depressive part of the neighborhood.

The residents of 4th microdistrict of Brateevo where the ones who initiated the first committee of public territorial selfgovernment in USSR. Based on Levchik, Dmitriy. Emergence of Public Self-government in Russia: Territorial and Labor Protest Movements (1988-1993). Moscow, 2005 http:// ecsocman.hse.ru/data/603/521/1219/ Text_dissertation.pdf

2012

"New residential areas are replacing the former suburban villages. Brateevo is one of them. Imagine, it is located on the picturesque banks of the Moskva River.

Next to residential buildings there are schools, kindergartens, and trade and consumer services. This densely packed layout will have everything necessary for a comfortable living. That's what Brateevo is going to be like. The project is designed by "Mosproject-1" Studio 10."

111

Part II.

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

Dr.Dr. Crisis Crisis or:or: How How WeWe Learned Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Citizen Involvement: Is it extremism to demand a better quality of life?

The graph shows dynamics of real expendable income of USSR/Russia, 1988-2012

1989

First local referendum regarding urban issues is held

1988

A wave of civic urban protests was raging across almost all districts of Moscow.

in Brateevo. Its results have no legal power and serve as an opinion poll about citizen’s desires regarding housing and infrastructure.

Protest activities demanded an appropriate response from authorities.

At the time, authorities had no tools to influence the political behavior of the population at the place of their residence of citizens, except for weak territorial party and veterans organizations.

After activists try to present them as a legislative initiative, city authorities charge them with extremism.

Top-down creation of TOS by local City authorities can’t administration decide how to handle leads to an increase of their number by four in a few the situation and months. start to experiment with the system 1991 of government in 1991 Boris Yeltsin is elected Moscow.

This top-down modernization movement merged with the bottom-up protest movement, which gave life to a fundamentally new form of social activity - the territorial public self-government (территориальное общение самоуправление, TOS).

The first TOS committee of a microrayon is created in Brateevo.

Dmitriy Levchik, vchik, historian

Decree on Privatization of housing in Russia

is a start of a long process of turning citizens from users into owners of private property, which hasn’t yet ended.

1992

Brateevo, Borisovo and other microrayons become hotspots of the protest movement against unfavorable social and urban environment, industrial development and lack of domestic infrastructure. [1] 1988 “Territorial protest movement of citizens was a massive and deliberate violation of the established rules of social and political order, which citizens expressed in their daily life in order to change the terms and practices of ownership, management and maintenance of their city or microrayon.The purpose iment was to of the experiment pendent control independent tal and environmental ng public housing movements created ety as a by civil society pression part of suppression s-roots of the grass-roots vement” [1] protest movement”

President of Russia.

After a reform of the territorial structure of Moscow, formation of 128 municipalities and 10 administrative districts,

TOS remains the only way to oppose the growing power of city government and its local administration. [1] Yuri Luzhkov becomes Mayor of Moscow and stays in power for 13 years.

Enactment of the Constitution of Russian Federation.

With the suspension of TOS and a forced termination of the strike movement, local administration gains authority, municipal selfgovernment gets weaker.

Decree of the Mayor to suspend the activities of TOS followed by a requirement for reregistration, revision of the boundaries of communities, lack of budget and other obstacles to the activities of TOS. Amount of TOS in Moscow is reduced by 14 times. Overall, the process of “calming the country down” begins after a period of political turbulence.

1995

2005

First “March of Dissent” takes place

Its agenda is political,

Vladimir Putin is elected President of Russia.

and its formal leaders belong to the established opposition.

2002

TOS is denied of a legal status.[2] New forms of shared management of housing are legally introduced, including association of homeowners (TSZh)

Municipal Self Government is put under larger control of the executive branch of city authority.

1999

2003

Explosions of houses in Moscow and other cities.

Panic among citizens who want peace more than anything grants permission to authorities to change the course of the internal policy towards hypercentralization.

1999 “Moscow authorities will change, but the social institution of a constructive opposition has come to stay here for long and do some serious business” [16]

1989 “In most cases, the committees of public territorial selfgovernment and strike committees es can’t be considered fully the structures of civil society. y. They were the fruit of a social role-playing game e called “permission to riot.” In this sense, they were quasi social, rather than the reality of our lives. And they were genetically related not so much to the society, as to the Russian government and acted on its behalf” [1] Dmitriy Levchik, historian

on Constitution Day. (Marsh Nesoglasnykh)

2000

Direct elections of Mayor of Moscow take place for the last time.

Despite all obstacles, about 300 to 400 TOS committees continue to operate in Moscow. Deprived of the right to form a legal entity a and participate in commercial a activities, they suffer from la lack of funds and space, p passivity of the population, a and total control by local a administration.[4] [21]

Vyacheslav Glazychev, urbanist

References and sou source sources rcess are are on pag pagee 25.

25.

12

1993

2005 “Someone wants to complicate the situation in this country and encourage instability. We should learn from the past and tell those who are blowing up the fear in the society, that they are doing an inacceptable thing” Mikhail Gorbachev, ex-President of USSR

The main slogans are “This is our city!”

“We need another Russia!”, “Russia without Putin!”, “No police state!”, “Down with the power of the KGB”.

It is followed by four years of protest activities under

2006

“March of Dissent” brand, replaced by “Strategy-31” civil rights movement in support of the guaranteed right for a peaсeful protest, gathering up to 3,000 participants. Unauthorized by administration, protest actions result in mass detentions, violation of rights and repression by police, causing them to attract more attention and slowly grow in number.

2004 “People are starting to realize that housing is not only square meters of housing, but also the porch, the ya the street. All this affects the yard, lev of comfort and price. Gradually, level v a vanguard of citizens who will lobby for their interests will form. They will be become the carriers of the idea of ur urban comfort”. [17] V Vyacheslav Glazychev, urbanist

Part II.

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learned Learn to to Stop Stop Faking Faking and and KillKill thethe Microrayon Microrayon

Existing Trends and the Inertial Future

?

2012 2012

2011 2009

A series of public hearings take place

2007 2 007

For the th first time tim me in Russia’s histo history,

Public Hearing g is classified as s a form of immediate selfelfg overnment. government.

Their results serve as recommendations for the decision-takers. New Urban Planning Code and Public Hearing Regulations state their goal as to consider the interests of individuals and entities in the process of urban development and protect human rights for a favorable environment and living conditions, but establish no obligation to provide a meaningful response to residents’ comments and suggestions.[5]

2008 2 008

In the absence of direct elections of the Mayor of Moscow, a local

TOS remains the only legitimate form of direct management and citizen control

over their local environment, but it’s almost never used.

Strict requirements for TOS registration make them virtually impossible to create.

[6]

to discuss the General Plan and Rules of Land Use and e Development.

In tot total, 41,000 comments and sugg sugge g suggestions were received from tthe participants of public hearings. The official conclu conclusion stated that: “Most of the co comments and suggestions of par participants of public hearin hearings had nothing to do directl directly with projects”.

By law, la providing citiz citizens with a quality feed feedback to their conc concerns is not requ required. [7]

2010 2 01

Serg Sobyanin Sergei becomes Mayor of beco Moscow.

Mosc A be benchmark for a local referendum is set at 5 refer percent of the number perce registered voters. of re That can actually be collected by a small group lecte initiative citizens. of ini an overall analysis But a legislative changes of leg reveals a trend for a revea further ‘nationalization’ furth municipal selfof m government. [8] gove Strat Strategy-31 movement Triumphalnaya at Tr Square gathers 2,000 Squa participants. parti

2010 “I remember the mid-80s, when we talked the same way, sitting in our kitchens at home and whining that the communist power will never give up. But some time after, in hindsight, we realized that communism had been doomed, because this system had proven itself to be fully ineffective both economically and politically. Just the same thing is happening today” [18]

Stanislav Belkovsky, political scientist

2011 20 “T “Three-quarters of people wh who stood on stage at Bo Bolotnaya square pursued the their private mercantile tasks no not related to the objectives an and priorities of those who pro protest” [18]

S Stanislav Belkovsky, po political scientist

A wave of protests against the results of Federal Duma elections runs across the city.

An unauthorized rally on Chistoprudny blvd on December 5th and 6th gathers up to 7,000 participants.

It is severely repressed.

A series of mass protest actions in the form of marches, rallies, flash mobs, silent demonstrations and strolls follow, gathering up to 120,000 people, according to organizers (not more then 30,000, according to the police). On most cases, the police remains within legal framework, “Police Is with the People” makes a popular slogan.

Uralvagonzavod plant

Vladimir Putin publishes an article claiming that protesters don’t represent the majority of the country.

Protesters interpret this as a denial of the fact that they are already representing the majority of those who didn’t vote for United Russia and it’s time to acknowledge that Russia’s people is ready for a real democratization.

Putin is elected President of Russia for the 3rd time, this time for 6 years.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warns about the foreign influence in Russian protests. [9] 2011 “The most important social consequence of these political developments is positive solidarity.

Urban groups - political, territorial, professional, and others - met and got acquainted. It is the emergence of real urban space in Moscow that we’re witnessing” Ale Alexei Levinson, soc sociologist “ “The problem is that the a authorities do not really u understand now, what to do with this story.

K Kremlin’s biggest fear now is the transformation of th the political protest into th the social” [20]

assuming that would give Moscow citizens more influence on the situation in the city. [12]

Strelka Institute starts discussion of a new model of public hearings.

The aim is to influence the decision-making process and make it an inherent part of urban development.

A new phase of protest begins

Punishment for for protest-related offences is made much harder.

It is repressed with extreme, unprecedented violence.

Politics-driven civil protest of citizens gradually transforms into a socially-driven civic protest.

by “March of millions” on May 6 at Bolotnaya square with 8,000 (police) to 50,000 participants (organizers).

Its continuation is a 1-monthlong #OccupyAbay

workers offer their peaceful protest help in the repression in form of an of riots in order to urban festival, “protect our stability”. which gathers up to 3,000 Soon after their leader is appointed President’s Representative in Urals Federal District.

Sergey Sobyanin offers to grant significantly more power to municipal representatives,

participants, who get pushed around the city by the police, charged with littering & disturbing residents of the neighborhood.

Fine for individual organizers reach up to 300,000 rubles (over $ 9,000). [13]

On June 12, the second March of Millions starts at the Bulvarnoye Ring and results in a rally on Prospekt Sakharova with 18 000 to 100 000 participants.

Protesters demand an urban referendum for an

early termination of city authority, due to the substantial expansion of Moscow boundaries and increased number of voters. [14]

Public urban activities with a taste of a protest An all-Russia “One Day are continued by a stroll of of Protest Actions” critical writers followed by 3,000 rally is planned for September 15, 2012. t 15,000 people, and another to s stroll of artists. Gradually the p political protest is turning into an o on-going peaceful civic protest.

2012 “A society which permits rallies and marches must protect itself from radicalism” Vladimir Putin, president of Russia “Th “The era off stability t bilit in Russia is over. The middle class appeared, and now they will only increase in number and the amount of their interests” [21]

“Recent events have shown that the new generation cares about what happens to their country, region, and home. The fear of the authorities for any uncontrolled movement is the background, against which the energy of the new is moving in clear, simple, practical actions. This socalled “policy of small things” is an extremely useful city trend” .[22] Oleg Shapiro, architect

Anatoly Chubais, head of RusNano

Y Yevgeny Minchenko, p political scientist.

13

Vechernyaya Moskva ("Evening Moscow") is a Russian local daily newspaper published in Moscow since 6 December 1923.

This is the oldest evening newspaper in Russia, one of the most popular in Moscow.

Every evening it tells readers about the major world and Moscow events of the day, including those that are not over yet.

"Evening Moscow" promptly informs its readers about the major projects of the Mayor's Office and has direct access to information on urgent issues from the government of our city.

A FRESH JUNE 25, 2025 ISSUE ALREADY AVAILABLE!

14

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Crisisovercrowdor: How We Learn to StopPROJECT Faking and Kill the Microrayon 36 men fellDr. from TO BUILD ed platforms of Moscow THE NEW MOSCOW MEGARAYON Metro since the beginning IS DECLARED AN URBAN PLANNING of June

The temperature of hot water next winter will be lowered from 90 to 30 degrees Landfill in southern Moscow is announced the largest in Europe Non-payers for electricity will be granted an amnesty Elementary school teacher goes on hunger strike in protest of 55 students in his class. “Other teachers have a maximum of 40 kids in class. I’m new at this school, and they gave me 51! That’s not fair.”

Why do Muscovites kill themselves in traffic jams?

Nikolay Godunov, Professor of Moscow Transport Institute: “I see no direct connection. It can happen anywhere. I’m sure people kill themselves in other places, too. Traffic jam is simply the place where they spend most of their day”

Moscow glorified Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared the project to build the Megarayon on the territory of New Moscow an urban planning mistake. This was announced at a Moscow City Duma meeting.

According to the mayor, for some reason, the infrastructure component was completely neglected in the construction of Megarayon.

"But what's done is done. We need to think about how to save it from savagery and abandonment," – Sobyanin said, adding that Megarayon still needs to be provided with utilities, roads, public transport, schools, kindergartens and shops. "We have to make it work," - he said.

The Megarayon project began in 2012 on the territory of New Moscow South-West which was added to Moscow to ensure its smooth expansion. The original plan was to build

COLLECTIVE PRAYER FOR A COLLAPSED MICRORAYON

On Saturday, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Kirill led the cross procession to commemorate the Cheremushki Downfall at the Jesus Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow. Accompanied by the clergy, the Russian Orthodox Church came out of the temple with the icon of St. Spiridon Tremithus.

St. Spiridon of Tremithus is the favorite saint of Muscovites. He is known to help to sell or buy an apartment or other property. Through the prayers of St. Spiridon Tremithus legal issues concerning real estate are effectively delivered. The procession made three circles around the cathedral, accompanied by prayer, singing and bell ringing.

MISTAKE

over 130 millions of square meters of residential areas, which is almost ninety times the square of Moscow’s renowned Yasenevo microrayon.

In September 2023, former deputy head of NIIPI Genplana Mikhail Krolevskiy said that at least 40 districts of New Moscow Megarayon would be completed by the end of 2024, which makes the total of fifty-eight square meters of space (45 per cent of the commissioned volume). According to him, by the end of 2028 the volume of built space will be almost 120 million square meters (91 per cent of the plan).

In the end of January, the head of the Moscow construction complex Artur Kusnulin, said that the construction of New Moscow Megarayon" is scheduled for completion within 5 years.

STREETS OF MICRORAYON NOVOPER ARE FLOODED WITH FECES On Friday, June 20, around 11 am, a water breakthrough occurred at street of Novoperedelkino, a hip artistic microrayon in the old heart of Smaller Moscow. The breakage caused a flood of wastewater mixed with feces and sand.

Putting a permanent fix on the broken pipe took about five hours. All this time, water was unavailable in the homes of the residents and facilities nearby.

This accident caused a major dissent among the members of local neighbors committee. Anna Petrenko, 47, head of the neighbors “Wash Your Step” committee: “On Friday we always work collectively in the yard, clean the doorsteps and make everything look nice. And now there’s this dreadful stinking swamp in the middle of our yard. But you know, I heard this coming. How many times we’ve asked the local authorities to let us wash them away! Well, you know, all those migrants who are living in here, hundreds in one apartment, clogging up the system. I’m surprised it hadn’t happened before”, she said. “A capital renovation of engineering ne ering in Novoperedelkino is scheduled for 2032,” explains Viktor Abramyan, head of municipal council. “We do what we can, but until that time, residents will have to learn to be patient.”

Evening Moscow, June 25, 2025

15

Part III.

An Alternative Future and How to Get There

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

A

lternative Future is one potential scenario for the system, which may be provoked by external and internal factors of change. To create our version of an Alternative Future, we have identified several factors that have a significant impact on the formation of trends in mass housing and quality of life in Moscow, such as state orders of housing in the form of social programs, high interest rates on mortgages, low productivity in the construction industry, and high oil prices.

In our Alternative Future scenario we show just one possible scenario for the future, which takes could occur after a sharp and lasting drop in world oil prices. Why oil?

High price for oil is one of the primary factors that perpetuate systemic inefficiency.

The Russian economy in general and Moscow economy in particular are dependent on export revenues from the sale of raw materials such as oil.

Worse Is Better or: Getting off the Needle Why do we need to model an Alternative Future?

Imagining the future is a starting point for a holistic understanding of the status quo and building a strategy for realizing desired change. Without it, it is difficult to formulate one’s expectations from the living environment and critically evaluate the current situation.

Moscow accounts for over 80% of all financial flows and more than 50% of the total banking capital of Russia. The share of fuel and energy revenues directed toward Moscow in comparison with Russia as a whole is currently 50%.[1] The share of direct revenues from commodity companies to the Moscow budget exceeds 20%. Indirect revenues from related industries (banking, investment, consumer goods, etc.) are enormous, defying accurate estimation.

Russia is not among the countries that can strongly influence global oil prices. Thus city government is dependent on external factors beyond its control.

In the city budget for 2012, the deficit makes up 17% of total revenues. Government doesn’t plan to achieve a non-deficit budget in the coming five years.

Amount of officials Oil export revenue Budget deficit Level of welfare

253 bln RUB

3 2

1,7

4

budget deficit

mln officials

16

Government programs are aimed at outdated standards and create no strategic mechanisms to improve efficiency. Only 1.2% of planned expenditures for government programs for 2012-2016 are directed toward stimulating economic activity in the city.[2] The city declares its policy socially-oriented, but it is neither sustainable nor proactive. “A significant portion of the income in the city budget is not returned to taxpayers in the form of public goods. It is redistributed according to the needs of social policy of the city and state. This situation is more attractive to recipients of social help, rather than active producers.”[1] In 2012, the city will directly spend nearly 20% of its budget on “target” social programs, which are not creating any motivation and provide no working tools to improve the welfare of citizens and overcome passivity.[3] The costs of city administration are growing, as well as the amount of bureaucrats in the system and the scope of their work, but the efficiency of urban management is in decline. The “Open Government” city program does not provide a strategy to reduce the number of officials. On the contrary, according to the program, “the number of civil servants is not sufficient to realize the scope of functions of the executive power of Moscow.”

[4] A program for digitization of city services provides a good example of inefficient spending. A recent government inspection of its implementation for the period of 2008-2011 revealed that more than 4 billion rubles were wasted or used inefficiently. Furthermore,

Low efficiency of the system is preserved by revenues from the export of oil

1

deficit proficit

2000

5

The overflow of “oil money” allows for the existing inefficiency of government programs. Botox injections of oil mask the systemic crisis of inefficiency under a shiny surface of fake prosperity.

2010

2012

2015

References and sources : 1 Dynamics of real expendable income in Russia, Rosstat 2 Oil export revenue of Moscow companies, Moscomstat 3 Amount of officials in Russia, Rosstat 4 Moscow budget deficit, Federal Debt Committee of Moscow 5 Interfax, http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=556274

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

the planned system of electronic documentation has not been established. [5] Despite the pouring of money into the city budget, the standard of living has been decreasing, not growing. Moscow citizen’s real income has been going down for the past year, and the trend is negative Every third Muscovite earns less than 60% of the average income [1] . Every tenth is living below the minimal wage. Real cash incomes of the population remain stagnant.

[8] Ultimately, it is the citizen who pays for the inefficiency of the city (see: Tractatus Logico-Vitalis).

Illusions of wealth allow the state to deploy large-scale housing programs.

Large volumes, outdated quality standards and a non-transparent system of order distribution for social housing (building prefabricated panel microrayons at the expense of the budget) create artificial barriers for more effective economic models of affordable housing and create an obstacle to the development of a free housing market. In 2012, 20% of new residential construction is devoted to social housing. At the current rate, in 2014 every third apartment will be built at the expense of the municipal budget. [6] The state order is a “safety cushion” for housing production factories (DSK) and other oligopoly companies in the housing market. Artificial demand for prefabricated panels protects these companies from bankruptcy, which would threaten them in a competitive market.

“Share of the city” (a number of apartments, which developers are obliged to hand over to the city for free in order to negotiate an investment contract) increases the market price of property for the end buyer by 20-25%. Ultimately, city social programs are paid for by all taxpayers, most of which do not benefit from them.

Government subsidies for housing and utilities, social infrastructure, road network and public transport, which are not tested for their cost efficiency, provide no means to stimulate competitiveness, efficiency, or improved client service in these areas.

Currently 23% of utilities fees and residential housing maintenance is paid for by the city. [7]

A sharp and lasting drop in oil prices will cause a shortterm crisis of living standards, followed by an increase in systemic efficiency and quality of life improvement.

Removal of the oil backbone of the city’s economy will create preconditions for “shaking off” inefficient government programs and provide stimulation for market alternatives.De-monopolization of the housing, utilities and communal service markets will open doors for small- and medium-sized businesses that are more sensitive to fluctuations in demand and consumer preferences.

Made evident by lack of funds, the ineffectiveness of centralized decision-making structures will give rise to efficient self-government and civil control.Forced reduction of administrative costs, staff and areas of control will create a market space for new technological solutions to replace unfriendly city interfaces in order to improve communication between the city and citizens and use remaining funds efficiently.

Collapse of social programs will deprive some citizens from their dependence on the state and increase their level of responsibility for the quality of the urban environment and their own lives.

Despite the short-term decline in living standards, citizens will gradually learn to demand more for their money. They will tend to make better-informed decisions and take more initiative to control the cost of living.

As a result, our scenario of an Alternative Future brings us to the following conclusion. The housing situation will benefit from a substantial drop in oil prices because this would cut existing market, government and communication inefficiencies and thus increase competitiveness. A painful short-term crisis followed by a period of “recovery” will provide for an efficient pathway to make the city more sustainable, costeffective and open to change, which will result in quality-of-life improvement in the long run. * Alternative Future scenario is based on analytical reports and statements by Russian experts on the prospects of the Russian economy in case of a collapse in world oil prices.

References and sources: 1 Strategy 2025 2 http://budget.mos.ru/gp_expenses 3 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/mbudget2012_010911a.png 4 http://s.mos.ru/common/upload/open-gov.pdf 5 http://www.cnews.ru/news/top/index. shtml?2012/04/16/485865

6 http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2012/02/06/market/562949982738350 7 http://grani.ru/Society/m.185512.html 8 Moskomstat 9 www.lenta.ru/articles/2012/06/04/oilprice/ 10 www.sberex.ru/article/64 11 www.kommersant.ru/doc/313411/print

Part III.

An Alternative Future and How to Get There

Methodology of an Alternative Future In describing our methodology for forecasting an Alternative Future for mass housing in Moscow, we’ve drawn upon concepts from the world of physics, namely charged particles, waves, fields, and refraction points. These concepts offer a metaphorical framework for analyzing the structure of the existing model, identifying its weaknesses, and uncovering promising directions for future development.

Charged particles are local energy clots that can interact with each other and form directed flows. For the purposes of our research, charged particles refer to an entity or practice that is unable to significantly influence trends on its own.

A motionless solitary charged particle creates a very weak electromagnetic radiation. They are characterized by high adaptability and passivity.

They play a minor supporting role in preserving existing trends and don’t tend to bring about new ones. Examples of motionless particles include inert citizens, local self-government, public hearings.

Charged particles in uniform motion creates a stronger radiation. This means that an entity is locally stable and can pursue its interests to a limited extent without the strength or will to change the context of its activities or initiate a new trend. Examples of moving charged particles include small businesses, independent municipal deputies, a successful homeowners’ associations (TSZh).

Accelerated charged particles moving in one direction form a flow. For us, this means that entities and practices are drawn together by similar interests and common goals, which creates a relatively stable and well-coordinated structure. It is the flows that generate trends.

Examples of flows include oligopoly companies, bureaucracy, local governing bodies.

The flow of charged particles creates a strong electromagnetic radiation that spreads to the electromagnetic field. Wave is a way to spread the radiation emitted by charged particles. By waves we mean the dynamics of various components of living space, which result in a preservation, modification or termination of existing trends.

Examples of waves include increased state investment in social housing, increased budget for city government programs, lower purchasing power of the population.

Field is the state of interaction space. Its intensity may vary locally, exerting a strong influence on trajectories of particle flows and the intensity of waves. In the context of our research, field is the actual state of a particular area of urban environment. Examples of fields include an oil-dependent economy, corrupt and autocratic administration, oligopolized mass housing market, poor communication among citizens.

Properties of the field change under the influence of internal and external factors, leading to its destabilization and the emergence of refraction points. By refraction points we mean possibilities for alternative scenarios to emerge. Emergence of refraction points can be caused by a critical mass of internal factors, such as intersections of trajectories of flows and interference of waves, which affect the nature of interaction and speed of charged particles and intensity of waves. Examples of internal factors include growth of economic system efficiency, transition of political and civil protest into a protest of urban citizens, systemic political reforms, macroeconomic stability, evolution in consumer values.

Despite their inertia and apparent invincibility, current fields are extremely unstable and unsustainable in cases of strong external change, which forces them to either adapt or disappear. Examples of external factors include global financial crises, changes of migration flows, and long-term decline in oil prices.

External and internal factors of change serve as feedback for each other. They are interconnected and influence upon each other, bringing the field to a new state. Under the influence of a strong external factor and subsequent activation of internal factors, major trends change their direction, bringing about a different result in an Alternative Future. In the scenario of one version of the Alternative Future set below, we see that after a short-term crisis, a different future emerges, in which quality of life gradually improves and the cost of living declines.

17

Part III.

An Alternative Future and How to Get There

If oil price drops, what happens to the housing?

Oil price for Brent falls consistently below $80 per barrel

Short-term growth in demand for housing as a reliable object of investment Crisis of Russian export-dependent economy, cutting costs, downsizing and reduction of wages in artificially ÂŤoverheatedÂť sectors of the economy Gradual decline of standard of living, reduction of purchasing power of citizens, reduction of housing operations, especially buying real estate as an investment Luxury end of the market goes on sale Crisis of Russian banking system, rising interest rates for cash from the Central Bank, growing interest rates on loans to developers and construction companies Foreign and Russian investors move their capital abroad, cutback of large housing investment projects, sale of investment contracts Housing sales dropdown, rising mortgage interest rates, growing unaffordability of housing Developers, investors and real estate agents attempt to compensate for the decline in demand for real estate by artificial freezing of the prices

Major investors and developers go bankrupt Freezing of construction, non-fulfillment of obligations to investors and holders of shared construction contracts, downfall of the volume of new housing construction Disintegration of industry professionals who need to establish new forms of cooperation and relations with the state A threat to sustainable housing businesses due to the downfall of profitability Increased risks for banks to invest into real estate development Change of players in the housing market,more opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses,intense competition for the customer Promotion of public-private partnershi p in for housing and infrastructure construction and maintenance, larger involvement of citizens-own funds

1 at a press conference on oil prices and the Russian economy, June 9, 2012 http://pressria.ru/media/20120609/600385599. html 2 FBK on April 12, 2012 http://www.ng.ru/economics/2012-04-12/1_ perspektivy.html 3 http://lenta.ru/articles/2012/06/04/oilprice/ 4 www.lenta.ru/articles/2012/06/04/oilprice/ 5 www.sberex.ru/article/64 6 www.kommersant.ru/doc/313411/print

18

Crisis of Russia’s budget built around oil price forecast of over $110 a barrel

Macroeconomic crisis, downfall of the ruble and Russian stock market

De-monopolization of development and housing construction

References and sources:

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

De-monopolization of development and housing construction Reducing the volume of state social housing construction order Housing construction factories (DSK) go bankrupt, type panel housing construction in crisis

De-monopolization of social housing market Diversification of affordable housing supply

Reduction of red tape around housing construction

Development of innovative typologies, construction and maintenance technologies at the low-cost end of the housing market, more compact and efficient dwellings with a shorter life cycle

Decrease of interest rates on mortgages, as well as loans for real estate developers and builders

Cost-reducing models of access to replace ownershi p

De-monopolization of development and housing construction Reducing the list of state-provided free and subsidized services and facilities

Renunciation of private cars, worsening of traffic situation due to degradation of roads, overloading of public transport system

Attracting investors for development of commercial public transport and paid roads Raising private funds of citizens for public infrastructure projects (government bonds, shareholding, co-operation and co-financing) Spreading of market alternatives to deteriorating state-provided services and increased competition resulting in quality improvement

Gradual stabilization of the market

Decrease of housing prices, development projects with long-term profitability, competition for customer

Wider choice of housing and services that comply to a chosen lifestyle, increased mobility

Advance construction of infrastructure to ensure provision and ecentralization of the city

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

The Russian budget for 2012 is based on a predicted oil price of $100 per barrel.

The budget deficit was supposed to be 1.5% of GDP. Due to a record-breaking growth of energy prices in the first quarter of 2012 , the Russian Ministry of Finance has reduced the forecasted budget deficit.

Part III.

An Alternative Future and How to Get There

Since then, budgetary expenditures have been revised upwards. One of the reasons for the positive prognosis was favorable trends in world oil prices, which remained around $120 per barrel for several months.

On June 1, 2012 the price of Brent oil fell to $98.95. The price of Russian Urals oil per barrel fell below $97. Since then,the oil price 3 continues to fall.

«Russia has made $ 1.6 trillion rubles on oil and gas from 2011 till 2010. Such giant money could fill in for any crisis.

But now the situation may change dramatically. Today,the price of oil exceeds $ 120 per barrel,while the budget deficit remains about 120 billion rubles.

What will happen tomorrow if the price of oil will collapse?»

Igor Nikolaev, Director of Strategic Analysis 2

«If oil prices drop below $80, Russia’s reserves will suffice for last it one year, at the best» Dmitry Miroshnichenko, Center of Development Institute, Hig her School of Economics 1

De-monopolization of De-monopolization De-monopolization of Reduction of budgetofspendingDe-monopolization on social policy, of development and social housing development development andin mass housing development and including programs,and decrease of state involvement housing construction housing construction housing construction housing construction Sharp rise of cost of housing maintenance, utilities, medical services, education and other services paid for by citizens

Citizens are forced to invest more into quality of life, housing and associated services

Budget spending reduction on engineering and social infrastructure

State can't afford to carry on all the ineffective assets it possesses

Reducing the "share of the city" in new buildings handed over to the state by developers in exchange for land

Misappropriation,sale or privatization of state-owned munici pal housing at the expense of its inhabitants (1/4 of total residential housing in Moscow)

Deficiency of investment contracts, abandonment and misappropriation of state-owned land

Neither developers nor the state can afford to build infrastructure at their own expense

Increased pressure on existing engineering networks, growing exhaust and massive breakdowns

Sale or free distribution of stateowned land for housing construction

New forms of consumer cooperation of citizens,including co-operation for reduction of household services and utilities costs

Privatization of engineering,social and transport infrastructure, development of market-based alternatives to monopolies

Growing demand for effective communication between homeowners in order to reduce the total cost of living

Easier access for small and medium-sized players and increased competition between housing management companies.

Increased sustainability and autonomy of dwellings

Better programming of common space, making it profitable and friendly

New technologies and management practices to improve quality and bring the costs down

Increased number and efficiency of homeowners associations (TSZh) Self-organization of citizens to ensure upkeep of common and public spaces

Improved quality, efficiency and diversity of utilities and daily services

Cost-effective economy behind infrastructure to ensure better quality of life at an affordable price

Better citizen control over expenses, quality of maintenance & services

Reduced construction by reSale or free distributioncosts of stateducing or removing the price for land owned land for housing construction Easier market accesscosts for small and Reduced construction by reducmedium-sized estatefordevelopers ing or removingreal the price land Development housing Easier marketofaccess forconstrucsmall and tion co-operation medium-sized real(ZhSK) estate between developers citizens interested in co-financing of housing construction Development of housing construction co-operation (ZhSK) between citizens interested in co-financing of housing construction

Opportunities for co-ops & self-building, more diversity, lower end price of housing

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

where citizens enjoy more options for a desirable lifestyle, increased social mobility and customized housing accessible at an affordable price.

19

Part IV.

Skipping the Crisis. Design of Public Awareness

Prototype seeds of change Seeds of Change are early adopters of an Alternative Future.

Vulnerable and disconnected at present, they have a transformative potential to drive a fundamental change of the housing system and set a new benchmark for the quality of life in Moscow.

A new brief for Microrayon "Rebriefing Khrushchev's Dream" is a hypothetical brief for the next stage of City Government's housing program for Moscow. This project by Strelka Institute students Błażej Czuba and Matiss Grofkaufmanis aims to stimulate long-term investment in real estate development through creation of the body of a housing operator.

It re-defines rules for public tender process that lead to a stronger position for the rayon in Moscow's fabric.

References and sources: 1 http://www.interfax-russia.ru/Center/comment.asp?id=319723 2 http://www.s-holding.ru/?ud=2 3 http://www.s-holding.ru/?ud=3 4 http://top.rbc.ru/society/15/06/2012/655233. shtml 5 http://www.yabloko.ru/shag 6 http://www.namiks.ru/ index.php?option=com_ content&view=article&id=1436 7 http://pokrovka-29.narod.ru/publikatsii/ dohodi_tovarischestva_sobstvennikov_zhilya/ 8 http://youhouse.ru/energosberejenie/ kotelnaya-dlya-doma.php 9 http://tsg-rf.ru/library/topic-1401/1801 10 http://ochakovo.zao.mos.ru/gos_prog/3.pdf 11 http://www.moskv.ru/articles/fulltext/show/ id/11997/

20

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Individual Homes at the Lowest Possible Price The C300 type housing series

by S. Holding corporation is designed to build houses of 3 to 9 floors with flexible planning solutions and high energy-saving qualities. C300 is a niche project designed to correspond to to new kinds of lifestyles and demands.

It offers a high level of living comfort at a minimal price: below 30,000 rubles per square meter. Mass series of prefabricated houses have become obsolete and out of favour with a significant part of citizens.

Such an option is in demand on the low cost end of the market 2 right now.

Transitional Microrayon A customer-focused housing model is proposed by Alexander Novikov, a student of Strelka Institute. His "Transitional Microrayon" is a housing modell organized according to the needs of its customers and theirr specific lifestyle characteristics.

The transitional Microrayon is a reflection of its inhabitants.

Responding to customers' needs, it reflects some of the distinguishing features of their way of living. On a temporal level, it is more than housing.

It is one continuous process of habitation provided by a system m of services.

Mini Mobile Housing Construction Plants The compact mobile housing construction plant (DSK) that reduces construction costs is a novel technology promoted by the S. Holding Corporation. Its equipment is compact. It can be located in the immediate vicinity of the construction site.

Ease of setup allows adaptation of the type of housing to changes in customer demands very quickly and without large capital investment. Production capacity of mini-DSKs makes it possible to create customized homes in an industrial process at the lowest price.

It achieves the goal of industrialization of mass housing construction without the necessity to construct and maintain huge, costly, ineffective and wasteful housing construction plants 3

Access Instead of Ownership City of access: Towards the new order of things” is a project

by Strelka Institute student Anastasia Sheveleva.

It is an attempt to create a new model of consumption in the microrayon in which access to services prevails over ownership of goods. The proposed model can be applied to the renovation of the existing microrayons and their resources and to the development of standards and recommendations for new microrayons.

Change of players in the housing market,more opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses,intense competition for the customer Promotion of public-private partnershi p in for housing and infrastructure construction and maintenance, larger involvement of citizens-own funds

De-monopolization of social housing market Diversification of affordable housing supply

Reduction of red tape around housing construction

Development of innovative typologies, construction and maintenance technologies at the low-cost end of the housing market, more compact and efficient dwellings with a shorter life cycle

Decrease of interest rates on mortgages, as well as loans for real estate developers and builders

Cost-reducing models of access to replace ownershi p

Re-evaluating Potential of Waste Despite the fact that the mentality of the industrial era that created microrayons no longer exists, the DSK conveyor continues manufacturing mass housing utilizing the same materials and technologies as 50 years ago.

The "Upcycling Model" proposal by Strelka Institute student Daliya Safiullina introduces ways to "reverse" the conveyor and turn the abundant construction and demolition waste that will emerge in foreseeable future after microrayons expire into a new "artificial-natural resource" for Russia, with economic potential that may contribute to solving acute problems in the current oildependent economy.

Private Capital for Public Transport “Construction of public transport in Moscow, such as the metro, is attracting private investors and contractors.

Knowing that Moscow has now announced ambitious plans for the construction of underground and transport infrastructure, they are willing to bring their companies into business, supply equipment and build,” says Konstantin Timofeev, Chairman of Moscow Government Investment Committee. 4

Attracting investors for development of commercial public transport and paid roads Raising private funds of citizens for public infrastructure projects (government bonds, shareholding, co-operation and co-financing) Spreading of market alternatives to deteriorating state-provided services and increased competition resulting in quality improvement

Gradual stabilization of the market

Decrease of housing prices, development projects with long-term profitability, competition for customer

Wider choice of housing and services that comply to a chosen lifestyle, increased mobility

Advance construction of infrastructure to ensure provision and ecentralization of the city

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Part IV.

Skipping the Crisis. Design of Public Awareness

Autonomous Boiler in an Apartment Block Building an autonomous boiler room in an apartment building can almost halve the cost of heating. And this is not the limit, for it opens a large scope of opportunities for custommade technical solutions to reduce costs.

The savings are partly due to lower losses during heat delivery and partly due to the use of modern heat generating equipment. Such a boiler runs on gas during the day and on electricity at night to take advantage of cheaper night rates. 8

Technical Advisory Board of Residents "All of our job assignments are made through tenders,” says the homeowners’ associations manager Raisa Lariontseva.

“When we decided to install meters, we invited five companies. They came to our block, gave their recommendations and estimated the price.

Easier access for small and medium-sized players and increased competition between housing management companies.

The Union of Homeowners’ Associations was established in Moscow in 2007. Its mission is to connect and coordinate homeowners’ associations and housing construction co-ops, promote successful models, share experiences, and protect legal interests of owners in court and with the Antimonopoly Committee.

Its ultimate goal is to raise the awareness of citizens of the benefits of self-organization and cooperation, which remain obscure for the large majority of citizens. 11

Decentralization of Utilities

And we have a technical advisory board in our house, consisting of competent neighbours. They compared thee offers and chose the one that suits our needs best. As far as I know, this advisory board is ourr competency. Another competency we have is a committee off residents assigned to accept and d evaluate capital renovation and maintenance work." 9

New forms of consumer cooperation of citizens,including co-operation for reduction of household services and utilities costs

Moscow Union of Homeowners and Co-Ops

A series of pilot projects have been carried put as part of the energy program of Moscow government. They are showing examples of partial decentralization of heat supply. An experimental autonomous heating system has been set up in Kurkino microrayon.

The calculations show that a one-time capital investment into an autonomous source of heat (a boiler, in this case) is 30% less than in case of a centralized utility. As for heat delivery networks, the capital cost was reduced by 3 times. Decentralized energy supply system reduces annual fuel consumption by 50%, and the end price for heat consumption is half as much for the customer. 10

Active Citizens School Active Citizens School is a regular evening school offering free lectures and masterclasses.

Its purpose is to educate and coordinate citizens in order to increase their control over the state of housing and utilities tariffs and help them understand better how utilities and housing management works, why we are paying so much for housing services, what to do with new forms of property management, and how to fight g for their rights. 5 Russian Housing Development Foundation Offers Federal Land

Housing that Generates Profits Homeowners’ associations can actually reduce the cost of living by making profits that may cover (or even exceed) their utility bills, which may be used to meet the needs of the apartment house. Sources of revenue can be various.

You can rent out basement, attic or basement for an office, sports club, a small shop, child care, café. 7

Privatization of engineering,social and transport infrastructure, development of market-based alternatives to monopolies

Growing demand for effective communication between homeowners in order to reduce the total cost of living

Increased sustainability and autonomy of dwellings

Better programming of common space, making it profitable and friendly

New technologies and management practices to improve quality and bring the costs down

Increased number and efficiency of homeowners associations (TSZh) Self-organization of citizens to ensure upkeep of common and public spaces

Improved quality, efficiency and diversity of utilities and daily services

Cost-effective economy behind infrastructure to ensure better quality of life at an affordable price

Better citizen control over expenses, quality of maintenance & services

In the near future, the Fund for Housing Development will become the leading mechanism for reducing the cost of housing construction. It will stimulate housing cooperatives to build dwellings on specifically chosen federal lands. “Co-ops created on the Fund’s lands will help to bring the cost of housing down by reducing the cost of land, which is built into the market price.

Experts say it may reduce construction costs by 30 percent,” says Elena Nikolaeva, Deputy Chairman of State Duma Committee for Housing Policy, Housing and Communal Services. 6

Sale or free distribution of stateowned land for housing construction Reduced construction costs by reducing or removing the price for land

Easier market access for small and medium-sized real estate developers Development of housing construction co-operation (ZhSK) between citizens interested in co-financing of housing construction

Opportunities for co-ops & self-building, more diversity, lower end price of housing

SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

where citizens enjoy more options for a desirable lifestyle, increased social mobility and customized housing accessible at an affordable price.

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Part IV.

Skipping the Crisis. Design of Public Awareness

Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Oil export revenue Level of welfare

Low efficiency of the system

Towards a Model of Charged Particles Accelerator An Alternative Future sounds rather pleasing, but how do we get there? The conclusion that the housing situation and other things with it will benefit from a substantial drop in oil prices because this would cut government inefficiencies and thus increase competitiveness may prove itself true.

But what should we do? Should Russia just wait until oil prices fall, then make it through the difficult transition period and expect improvements? No, we believe, it shouldn’t.

What we need is an engine that would take us into an Alternative Future without the pain of fighting the crisis of inefficiency through another crisis. We call it the Charged Particles Accelerator.

EducaƟon through Shared Experience

Public Awareness Campaign

Outreach to CiƟzens of Microrayons

Network of Charged ParƟcles

Charged Particles Accelerator is a tool for creating a field that helps build up a critical mass of charged particles and transform them into well-defined beams.

Charged particles are singular and disconnected practices, each of which is too small and vulnerable to make an impact on a bigger picture and shift a trend. But when a critical mass of incremental practices is achieved, a snowball effect may take place, allowing for solitary particles to transform into constant components.

Elements of the model

Strategy for implementaƟon

After the image of an Alternative Future was defined, we have monitored existing practices around mass housing and urban life, looking for charged particles, such as examples Methodology for Outreach to Moscow of sustainable businesses, efficient usage of space, citizen quality-based Urban Government & Urban self-organization and resident control, education programs Planning Integrated research Studio Planning InsƟtutes and awareness campaigns and other things available on Quality of Life Quality of Life already in 2012, but at a very small and fragmented at Strelka InsƟtute scale. We have discovered and showcased some that we believe to have a transformative energy behind them. Their variability and adaptability create a huge potential for a transformative change, once they are connected, put into a field and accelerated. Through this change, the desired Fig. 1. A draŌ model of Charged ParƟcles Accelerator future can be reached without the painful process of a major crisis. Charged Particles Accelerator is a shortcut to an Alternative Future.

The next step of our research would be development of a Charged Particles Accelerator model, together with a strategy for its implementation in Moscow.

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Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

Part IV.

Skipping the Crisis. Design of Public Awareness

Creating the connections between charged particles leads to a decentralized system

centralized

decentralized

In 1962 the US Air Force commissioned a study for a design which would allow the US command and control systems to withstand a nuclear attack.

Paul Baran, a researcher at Rand Corporation, produced a report entitled, ‘On Distributed Communications’ in which he identified three types of networks:

distributed

centralized - obviously vulnerable as destruction of a single central node destroys communication between the end stations decentralized - where complete reliance upon a single point is not always required distributed - with no central node which could continue to function even if part of the network was destroyed, rather than any others

From the Inherited Past to Desirable Futures Beliefs create systems of values.

Systems of values drive behaviours. Behaviours lead to outcomes.

As we have shown in our research, the existing system of mass housing is maintained by a number of assumptions both all the stakeholders of the system, including the citizens.

We saw, that there are certain beliefs and values embedded in the system. And they lead to certain outcomes we have demonstrated. It happens that these outcomes come in discord with our quality of life expectations. So, if we want to have a different outcome, then we have to adjust our behaviour, and values, and beliefs to allow for this new outcome come true.

So, let's create the Present from desirable Futures, not from the inherited Past.

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Dr. Crisis or: How We Learn to Stop Faking and Kill the Microrayon

We would like to express special thanks to David Erixon, Anastasia Smirnova, Kuba Snopek and the Institute for Media, Design and Architecture "Strelka", as well as to experts, who inspire and help us in our research.

Krzysztof Herbst, sociologist, Warsaw

Alexander Vysokovsky, architect, urbanist

Denis Romodin, historian of architecture

Vasily Auzan, management consultant

Alexey Levinson, sociologist, Levada-center

Dimitrij Zadorin, architect, expert on prefab housing

Denis Leontiev, architect, consultant

Yefim Freidine, architect, urbanist

Dmitriy Narinsky, Russian Urban Planners Association

Alexandru Deregatu, McKinsey New York

Sandra Vandermerwe, business consultant

Peter Sigrist, researcher, Cornell University

Yuri Grigoryan, architect, PROJECT MEGANOM

Alex Sukharevsky, McKinsey Russia

Jacgue Fresco, urban futurologist

This publication is a part of research in studio "Citizens as Consumers", Institute for Media, Design and Architecture "Strelka", held in 2012.

We would greatly appreciate if you would share your questions and feedback with us at nchamayeva@gmail.com (Nat Chamayeva) and olga.sarapulova@gmail.com (Olga Sarapulova).

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