Masse Critique by Marc Chataigner

Masse Critique

25 oct 2011 Next & CoWorking

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Occupy WallStreet

We have shown what we are capable of in mass. We have shown how we can circumnavigate the traditional forms of mainstream media to affect a message. We have shown how we can circulate amongst ourselves images and videos of events that can reach such a tremendous viewership in hours and days, when decades before us, these same practices took months and years. It is now time to start facilitating change. We have already reached critical mass. We are all connected through social media now. Millions of people collectively. I think what it is time to do now is start petitioning the government. We should start to devise petitions and test the formal structures of power. Now that we have reached critical mass, and the forums are all in place, (...) ChicagoT 2 points 4 days ago

Sorry you are not even close to critical mass.... until this movement has more than a few million active participants it's still a special interest group.... you'll end up lobbying like the rest of them.... reply permalink

MarcTwane 2 points 3 days ago Once these movements start to really address the issues at hand, and the most intelligent and well versed are called to speak, you will see the popularity grow. There is easily over a million people who are following this movement via Facebook. And that is critical mass. If real concrete ideas start to be organized in each one of these movements across the United States, you will see alot more people participating. Perhaps if more time was spent on editing and enhancing the video quality of the LIverstream in New York, more people will start following it as well. For now the viewership has completely stagnated.

« Don't confuse following reply permalink with being involved... I follow ChicagoT 1 points 3 days ago college football... I'm not Don't confuse following with being involved... I follow college football... I'm not involved... involved... » http://occupywallst.org/forum/letter-of-occupation-and-the-next-logical-step-in-/

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Qu’entend-on par «masse critique» ?

masse critique = la nombre suffisant d'utilisateurs pour qu’un service soit viable. (l’offre rencontre la demande)

Question Sommes-nous tous à la même phase de développement ? 1. Découverte 2. Validation 3. Efficacité 4. Changement d’échelle 5. Consolider 6. Conservation

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/

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Retour d’expérience • • • • •

(25 minutes)

•

WIITHAA : Nicolas Buttin DeWays : Alexandre Grandremy La Ruche Qui Dit Oui : Guilhem Chéron Next & CoWorking : Hayat Ouatahar Super marmite : Olivier Desmoulin + Marc Chataigner + Myriam Magra + Severine Figuls BuzzCar : Robin Chase

• • • • • •

Nathan Stern Benjamin Tincq Glenn Rolland Nathalie Ortiz Marine Jouan Antonin Léonard

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Questions Taille de la communauté, Nombre de membres, Pourcentages de membres actifs, Nombre de transactions, Depuis combien de temps, Actions déjà menées pour atteindre la masse critique, ...

Confrontons la thĂŠorie

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Loi de Metcalfe

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Loi de Metcalfe

Robert Metcalfe, fondateur de la société 3M, a énoncé une loi empirique établissant l’utilité d’un réseau, s’appliquant tout aussi bien au réseau téléphonique, au fax ou aux réseaux sociaux : « L’utilité d’un réseau est proportionnelle au carré du nombre de ses utilisateurs »

http://academic.research.microsoft.com/Publication/3381452/metcalfe-s-law-a-network-becomes-more-valuable-as-it-reaches-more-users

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Loi de Metcalfe

While letting the members know the exact size of the community may not be very helpful in the very early stages in its lifecycle, research has shown that new members who join a social group tend to be optimistic, overestimating what the potential benefits of joining are, and underestimating the likely costs of involvement. As a result, the positive effects of community size will outweigh the possible negative effects and are likely to have a greater effect on member attraction than not letting the members know the size of the community at all (Butler, 2001).

Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Unified Theoretical Model Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite

- No startup that scaled prematurely passed the 100,000 user mark. - 93% of startups that scale prematurely never break the $100k revenue per month threshold. - Startups that scale properly grow about 20 times faster than startups that scale prematurely.

http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-sca

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Customer How to scale customer dimension prematurely: Spending too much on customer acquisition before product/ market fit Overcompensating missing product/market fit with marketing and press Spending money in poor performing acquisition channels. Stats: Inconsistent startups are 2.3 times more likely to spend more than one standard deviation above the average on customer acquisition. Examples of startups that prematurely scaled on the customer dimension: Color, Webvan, Pets.com

http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-sca

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite

Because the shared identity of online communities only becomes fixed at the point of maturity, Westland also advices that management does not settle for a particular scope or audience for the community until reaching the critical mass. This approach is called ”adaptive execution of strategy”, and it suggests that in order to assure the largest user base as possible, management should respond to member requests, desires, feedback and interests flexibly for as long as they can. « Do not settle for a particular scope or audience for the community until reaching the critical mass. Before that tipping point, listen and talk to your community » Dissecting the Critical Mass of Online Communities towards a Unified Theoretical Model Faculty of Science, Utrecht University Department of Information and Computing Sciences Author: Eric Booij (E.Booij@students.uu.nl) Supervisor: Remko Helms (r.w.helms@uu.nl)

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success to the fact that M-Pesa was solving a very real problem: people didn’t have convenient ways to transfer money to each other and they needed to because of many families that were separated between cities and rural areas » http://pymnts.com/blast-off-how-two-sided-platforms-ignited/

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite Product How to scale product dimension prematurely: Building a product without having validated problem/solution fit, Investing into scalability of the product before product/market fit, Adding lots of “nice to have” features Stats: Inconsistent startups write 3.4 times more lines of code in the discovery phase and 2.25 times more code in efficiency stage. Inconsistent startup outsource 4-5 times as much of their product development than consistent startups. In discovery phase 60% of inconsistent startups focus on validating a product and 80% of consistent startups focus on discovering a problem space. It's widely believed amongst startup thought leaders, that successful startups succeed because are good searchers failed « In they discovery phase 60% of and inconsistent startups achieve failure by efficiently executing theon irrelevant. startups focus validating a product and 80% of consistent startups focus on Examples of startups that prematurely scaled the product dimension: discovering a problem space » Cuil, Webvan, Joost, Google Wave, Slide, 6Apart, most startups that don't find product market fit or "build something nobody wants". http://startupgenome.cc/a-deep-dive-into-the-anatomy-of-premature-sca

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Comment ne pas grandir trop vite

Once you’ve determined that the sales funnel process you’ve designed is working in a repeatable and scalable way, with a viable business model — i.e. for SaaS businesses, the cost to acquire a customer (CAC) is less than a third of customer lifetime value (LTV), and CAC is recoverable in less than 12 months — then you’re ready to scale the business.

http://gigaom.com/2010/11/28/accelerate-your-startup-spend-to-scale-the-business/

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Ă&#x2030;valutation de la masse critique

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Évalutation de la masse critique

Masse critique = 15% d'une communauté.

Thus the immediate goal of any Social Network is to hit that 15% saturation of the community they are targeting, but this raises the problem of how best to address Critical Mass when the target community is, for example, the population of the UK. To achieve 15% of 60,000,000 (the approximate population of the UK), 9,000,000 people need to sign up (and use regularly) before Critical Mass is achieved – a prohibitively high threshold.

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/

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Évalutation de la masse critique

Par densité géographique? D’utilisateurs ? D’offre ? Proportion d’utilisateurs actifs (/utilisateurs inscrits) sur une plate-forme ? Par nombre de pairs ? (followers, friends, ...) Fréquence de visite par utilisateur? Nombre d’interactions moyennes entre utilisateurs ? ...

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Ă&#x2030;valutation de la masse critique

P = I(F x R x U x V)/(D x N) P = Perceived User Value, I = Influence, F = Frequency, R = Relevance, U = Uniqueness, V = Value, D = Distance of relationship, N = Community population size

Critical Mass is achieved by increasing the numerator.

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/

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Évalutation de la masse critique

which can be done in the following ways:

1. Leverage existing networks and relationships The closer the relationships that individuals have with others, the more frequent the communication becomes because there is more in common, more shared time together, more shared experiences and so on. Thus starting a Social Network amongst an already-strong network, where conversations are already happening regularly and relationships are strong is an important factor in achieving good content that precedes Critical Mass.

2. Restrict the topics of conversation By decreasing the scope of conversation that can be held through the Social Network, you ensure that a higher proportion of the comments are relevant to the individuals that are using it. (Ex : MySpace back to music)

3. Demonstrate the value that users achieve Showing photos, leads, connections, friends, “likes” or any other statistic is a reasonably public way not only encourages others to join to reap the same rewards, but also triggers a competitiveness amongst some users, further increasing the rate of adoption.

4. In order to be a big fish, shrink the size of the pool

« The principle behind this is that at each enlargement of the community, the saturation never dropped below the The principle behind this is that at each enlargement of the community, the saturation never dropped below the Critical Mass. Critical Mass. » Critical Mass is essential to the success of a Social Network, but Critical Mass is not dependant on the size of the target community. (Ex : Facebook reached saturation within a single university before it spread to a second, a third and, eventually, opened up to the rest of the university world). Only after Facebook had reached saturation within the student communities did it open its doors to the world.

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/

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Trouver les clusters

3. Exploit irregular network topologies. In the last 90s, most people assumed that dating websites was a “winner take all market” and Match.com had won it, until a swath of niche competitors arose (e.g. Jdate) that succeeded because certain groups of people tend to date others from that same group. Real-life networks are often very different from the idealized, uniformly distributed networks pictured in economics textbooks. Facebook exploited the fact that social connections are highly clustered at colleges as a “beachhead” to challenge much bigger incumbents (Friendster). By finding clusters in the network smaller companies can reach critical mass within those sub-clusters and then expand beyond.

« Identifier les clusters (grappes, ensembles, amas) au sein de la communauté et au delà. »

Ex: Trajet Bourges - Paris sur CoVoiturage.fr Il n’existe pas de trajet de train en moins de 4 heures, alors que c’est 2 heures en voiture. Cluster de covoiturage.fr, les Paris-Berruyers http://cdixon.org/2009/08/25/six-strategies-for-overcoming-chicken-and-egg-problems/

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Double tranchant

As was mentioned earlier, the critical mass plays the role of a double-edged sword because it can also lead to the death of a community. Therefore, the 3inal point I would like to stress is that it is important not to focus too much on achieving a critical mass, but also aim at iterating on a community’s maturity by providing a steady 3low of quality content, adding new features and organizing contributions in a proper manner.

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L’équilibre de Nash

"Rappel, c’est l’équilibre de Nash, [de John Forbes Nash, ndlr] qui a donné naissance à la théorie des jeux : c’est une situation dans laquelle l’équilibre entre plusieurs joueurs est devenu stable grâce à leur collaboration et du coup, personne ne modifie sa stratégie sans affaiblir sa position actuelle" "Mais attention, plus le niveau de collaboration dans le "voisinage" est fort, plus la tentation d’agir en électron libre est forte, ce qui veut dire que pour des bénéfices importants, un seul individu peut nuire à la stabilité d’un réseau."

Ex: Super Marmite et la micro-communauté dans le 15ème Des utilisateurs se servent du site en circuit fermé, jusqu’à court-circuiter le site en se contactant directement. http://www.atelier.net/fr/articles/stabilite-de-structure-dun-reseau-social-tient-taille

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Principes pour faire grandir sa communautĂŠ

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Law of context

Limite de 150 personnes suivies. Law of Context The law of context is a rule about the environment in which a message spreads. Small changes in the context of a message can determine whether or not it tips. Thus, these social epidemics can fail if the geographic location where they are introduced is wrong or if the current mental state of the population is not prepared for the message. Gladwell also points out the importance of small groups for the distribution of messages. He argues that the maximum number of members that can reasonably exist in a human group is one hundred and fifty. He believes that biological limitations in our brain mean that any group larger than this will automatically segment into factions and decrease efficiency. The existence of small groups helps the spread of a message because each member of the group knows every other one and thus the message can easily « the maximum number of members diffuse through the whole group.

that can reasonably exist in a human group is one hundred and fifty »

http://www.caci.co.uk/imblog/index.php/social-media-2/achieving-critical-mass-in-social-networks-part-one/ http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.html

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La loi du petit nombre The law of the few is a law about the structure of our social network and how messages are passed through word of mouth. It attempts to classify three important types of people who affect the rapid spread of messages through the network. These three types of people are connectors, mavens, and salesmen.

Connectors are the socialites. They know a lot of people They are people with many friends and acquaintances who spend time maintaining these connections. From the network perspective, these are the most central nodes in the social network. Gladwell devised a simple test which allowed him to determine that the number of connections a person has is measured by a power law. This means that connectors are rare in society, but they maintain many more times the number of relationships than the average person does. Because of their ability to spread a message to a huge number of people quickly, connectors are central to understanding how tipping points are reached.

Mavens are the information gatherers of the social network. They know about things They evaluate the messages that come through the network and they pass their evaluations on to others, along with the messages. We can view mavens as regulators of the network because they have the power to control what flows through the network. We trust mavens, and this is especially important because their assessments can often make or break the tipping of an epidemic. Mavens drive many of our social institutions. They are the people who inform the better business bureau, regulate prices, write letters to senators, etc. in order that the rest of us don't have to. Though Gladwell does not argue this explicitly, his description of mavens suggests that mavens can be specialized in areas of expertise and thus many of us may be mavens in our particular areas of interest.

Salesmen are what the name implies. They convince us to use informtion in a certain way. They are persuaders who are capable of propagating messages through the force of their character. Thus, regardless of the message content or their expertise in the area, they have a certain ability to sell which helps them move messages which may be of importance to them. This Connectors ability to persuade strangers to accept a message They know a lotis why of people salesmen are important in tipping epidemics.

Mavens They know about things Salesmen They convince us to use informtion in a certain way.

http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.html

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La loi du petit nombre

Anybody who’s run a hyper-local site will tell you that it takes a couple of years just to get to a point where you’ve truly got a vibrant online community. It takes even longer to turn that into a viable business. Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, Backfence was unable to sustain itself long enough to reach that point. Post-Mortem Title: Co-Founder Potts Shares Lessons Learned from Backfence Bust Company: Backfence Author: Mark Potts | Mark Glaser

http://www.chubbybrain.com/blog/startup-failure-post-mortem/

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Stickyness Factor The Stickiness Factor is a law about the actual informational content and packaging of a message. Connections and the personal character of the people trying to spread a message can certainly help it spread, but if the message is not worth spreading, then it is doomed to failure. The stickiness factor says that messages must have a certain character which causes them to remain active in the recipients' minds. Moreover, they must be deemed worthy of being passed on.

Pas seulement une histoire de taille de la communauté, mais avant tout une question de la pertinence du contenu posté et de la qualité de sa mise en scène. http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.html

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Grassroot versus Viral

From a marketing perspective, consider what would motivate people to help build Wikipedia even though contributors were offered no incentive. Contrast this with 37 Signals’ new affiliate program: if you get people to sign-up for Basecamp, you get a commission. While the strategy of 37 Signals has the potential to become viral, it likely won’t, or it will be short-lived. The TechCrunch spike is the same thing. I’d much rather build a launch strategy around a small group of uber-committed folks who simply can’t live without my product than take my chances on a one-time traffic rush, hoping some percentage sticks.

« build a launch strategy around a small group of uber-committed folks who simply can’t live without my product than take my chances on a one-time traffic rush » http://ww w.leveragingideas.com/2008/09/28/difference-between-grassroots-and-viral/

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Grassroot versus Viral

In his pop science book The Tipping Point (2000), author Malcolm Gladwell proposes that the critical mass phenomenon follows the pattern of an epidemic. According to Gladwell, epidemics occur through the accumulation of different factors: (1) the infectious agent, (2) the people who transmit the infectious agent, and (3) the environment in which the infectious agent operates.

Grassroot first. Get viral then.

http://www.stanford.edu/class/symbsys205/tipping_point.html

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Synthèse

Trouver les Connectors, Mavens, Salesmen

Mettre en avant les ‘avantages’ de son réseau (loi de Metclafe)

Ne pas se limiter à une communauté pré-identifiée

Identifier et animer des Clusters Mettre en scène les acquis/ expériences des membres existants

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Grassroot first. Valoriser la mise en scène contenu UGC tout autant que la communauté

Get viral then.

Maîtriser le nombre des sujets d’échange au sein de la communauté

Résoudre un problème plutôt que de valider un produit

SynthĂ¨se

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Atelier

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Atelier

Formez des groupes autour de chaque service Wiithaa, DeWays, La Ruche Qui Dit Oui, Super Marmite, BuzzCar, La Mutinerie Next & CoWorking ...

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Points particuliers à nos services

Y'a-t-il des contraintes prévisibles ? Y’a-t-il des impondérables liés aux produits d’échange ? Par exemple on a faim trois fois par jour, pas prêt à faire une longue distance, ... (Super Marmite) Une voiture de ville a quatre places maximum, ... (CoVoiturage) Il faut être majeur pour payer en ligne ... Il faut avoir un PC connecté, voire un smartphone, ... ...

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Atelier

(15 minutes)

Proposition de travail • repréciser le «problème» auquel notre service répond • réouvrir les cibles potentielles (ne pas trop focaliser) • identifier les clusters (restreindre autour de grappes) et trouver des idées pour les atteindre • essayer de calculer la masse critique, en prenant les différentes hypothèses de travail des start-ups présentes • identifier le’contenu’ généré par la communauté et à valoriser sur le site • présenter aux autres et entendre les retours d'expérience sur ce qui est présenté de la part de ceux qui ont déjà testé ce genre d'actions. Ou ont déjà ciblé ce genre de communautés.

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Atelier

(15 minutes)

Présentation aux autres équipes

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Atelier

(15 minutes)

Réouverture • identifier les communautés en commun entre tous les services pour les adresser collectivement • travailler sur l'idée d'un "login" commun (une sorte de FacebookConnect de la conso collab) (voir protocoles OpenId / OAuth2) • ou d’une association

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merci

Marc Chataigner Myriam Magra Antonin Leonard

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