Tratto dalla Rivista IoRoma o dal suo allegato Quaderno che è consultabile al sito: http://rivista.ording.roma.it
2
a cura di 4A72 "2 &@:FAGE .CDD2 #2 #E@BGAG .CDD2 #2 CB;FDDG commissione "G?DF:G >G DFBF<C:=AG<E6GCAG 8G?DC >E! 4A72 .2 2 @GA<G;F 4A72 '2 .1&7AF?F
INFRASTRUTTURE CRITICHE E POLITICHE DI INTERVENTO IN CASO DI CATASTROFI NATURALI: UN SISTEMA DI SUPPORTO ALLE DECISIONI (DSS) IN AIUTO AL DECISION MAKING $).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &
3
Interdipendenza tra Infrastrutture Critiche 4B BG-@C 8F@>F @FBEDG8C EB Programma Europeo per la Protezione delle Infrastrutture Critiche >F9GAG?<F BF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F <C:F 0=FBBF â&#x20AC;&#x153;infrastrutture materiali o di tecnologia dellâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;informazione, reti, servizi e beni il cui danneggiamento o distruzione avrebbero gravi ripercussioni sulla salute, la sicurezza e il benessere economico o sociale dei cittadiniâ&#x20AC;?2 "F<CA>C DEBF >F9GAG6GCAF! =AE @FDF >G D@E?:G?5 ?GCAF F >G?D@G-=6GCAF FBFDD@G<E/ =A ?G?DF:E >G DFBF<C:=AG<E6GCAG/ =A ?F@8G6GC >G D@E?;C@DC ?C5 AC ?CBC EB<=AG F?F:;G >G GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F2 AE >FBBF :E77GC@G <@GDG<GD, >G DEBG GA9@E?D@=DD=@F % BE :=D=E >G;FA>FA6E <3F BF7E B1=AE EBBF EB5 D@F F <3F BF7E G ?CDDC5?G?DF:G >FBB1GA9@E?D@=DD=@E ?DF??E2 .@E::EDG<G GA<G>FADG E<<E>=DG AF7BG =B5 DG:G EAAG 3EAAC ;C@DEDC EBBE B=<F B1F99FDDG8E :G5 AE<<GE <3F 0=F?DE <E@EDDF@G?DG<E ;= @E;;@F5
?FADE@F ;F@ BF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F 0=EA>C F?5 ?F @G?=BDGAC EBDE:FADF GADF@<CAAF??F/ <GC% >G5 ;FA>FADG B1=AE >EB 9=A6GCAE:FADC >FBB1EBD@E2 A GA<G>FADF/ <E=?EDC >E =A EDDE<<C/ >E =A :EB5 9=A6GCAE:FADC/ >E <EDDG8E C :EA<EDE :EA=DFA5 6GCAF C >E <EDE?D@C9G AED=@EBG/ ;= 7FAF@E@F G:5 ;EDDG <3F GA<B=>CAC GB >EAAF77GE:FADC C B1GADF@5 @=6GCAF >G ?F@8G6GC >G EBD@F GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F ACA<3 @G;F@<=??GCAG GA EBD@G ?FDDC@G 0=EBG 0=FBBG ?EAGDE@GC F >FBBE ?G<=@F66E2 +F GADF@>G;FA>FA6F >FBBF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F AF E=:FADEAC BE 8=B5 AF@E-GBGD, E <E=?E GA9EDDG >FBBE ;B=@EBGD, >G <EAEBG EDD@E8F@?C G 0=EBG ;C??CAC ;@C;E7E@?G G BC@C 9EBBG5 :FADG2 +F GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F ?CAC @F?;CA?E5 -GBG >G 9EBBG:FADG <3F ;C??GE:C >F9GAG@F >G DG;C cascading F >G DG;C escalating 2 4 ;@G:G ?G 8F5 @G9G<EAC 0=EA>C GB 9EBBG:FADC >G =AE GA9@E?D@=DD=@E <E=?E 0=FBBC >G =AC C ;G <C:;CAFADG GA =AE ?F<CA>E C >G ;G GA9@E?D@=DD=@F F99FDDC >C:GAC 2
$).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &
4 ?F<CA>G ?G 8F@G9G<EAC 0=EA>C =A 9EBBG:FADC GA =A1GA9@E?D@=DD=@E @FA>F ;G 7@E8G 7BG F99FDDG >G =A 9EBBG:FADC E88FA=DC GA>G;FA>FADF:FADF GA =A1EBD@E GA9@E?D@=DD=@E2 #C:F F8G>FADF/ G 9EBBG5 G7=@E ! Il grafico dello scenario â&#x20AC;&#x153;reference runâ&#x20AC;? de â&#x20AC;&#x153;I limiti dello sviluppoâ&#x20AC;?, 1972.
:FADG >FB ?F<CA>C DG;C ?CAC 0=FBBG ;G >G99G<GBG >E ;@F8F>F@F2 F@ <CAC?<F@F F 8EB=DE@F B1G:;EDDC >FBBF GADF@>G5 ;FA>FA6F F ;F@ GAD@E;@FA>F@F ;F@ DF:;C BF E;5 ;@C;@GEDF :G?=@F >G ;@CDF6GCAF/ >F8F F??F@F :G5 7BGC@EDE BE <E;E<GD, >G ;@F8G?GCAF/ EDD@E8F@?C =A1EAEBG?G ;@F8FADG8E/ >FBB1G:;EDDC >FG :EB9=A5 6GCAE:FADG2 *AD@GE:C <C? AFB <E:;C >FBBE 8E5 B=DE6GCAF >FBB1F99G<E<GE >G =AE GA9@E?D@=DD=@E <@GDG5 <E <3F 8GFAF >F9GAGDE GA DF@:GAG >FBBE ?=E <E;E5 <GD, >G â&#x20AC;&#x153;prevedere, assorbire, adattarsi a, e/o recuperare rapidamente da un evento potenzialmente catastroficoâ&#x20AC;? )E;;C@DC (4&# Critical Infrastructure Resilience 2 #CA GB ;@C5 7@F>G@F >FBBF A=C8F DF<ACBC7GF/ BF :=D=F GADF@E5 6GCAG ?CAC <E@EDDF@G66EDF ?F:;@F ;G >E <C:5 ;BF??GD, >G ACA ;C<C <CADC! D@E GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@G5 DG<3F GADF@<CAAF??F 9@F0=FADF:FADF G 9EBBG:FADG ?G GAAF?<EAC <CA 9C@DG @GDE@>G >G99G<GB:FADF ;@F8F5 >G-GBG <3F @FA>FA>C BE 8EB=DE6GCAF >F7BG G:;EDDG ?F:;@F ;G <C:;BG<EDE2 +F EDD=EBG GA9@E?D@=DD=@F
$).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &
<@GDG<3F 3EAAC GACBD@F @E77G=ADC >G:FA?GCAG <C:;BF??F >G ACA BGAFE@GD, F >G >GAE:G<GD,2 .EDF 0=F?DF ;@F:F??F/ BE <C:=AGD, ?<GFADG9G<E ?G % C@GFADEDE/ ;F@ B1EAEBG?G >F7BG G:;EDDG >FG 9EBBG:FA5 DG/ ?F:;@F >G ;G 8F@?C B1=DGBG66C >FBBC ?DF??C E;5 ;@C<<GC =DGBG66EDC ;F@ BC ?D=>GC >G ?G?DF:G/ GA ;E@DG<CBE@F 8F@?C D=DDF 0=FBBF :FDC>CBC7GF <3F ;F@:FDDCAC B1EAEBG?G >G sistemi dinamici, complessi e non lineari2
System Dynamics per lâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;analisi degli impatti 'BG G:;EDDG >G =A 9EBBG:FADC EBB1GADF@AC >G =AE GA5 9@E?D@=DD=@E <@GDG<E @G?=BDEAC E>EDDG E> F??F@F EAEBG66EDG EDD@E8F@?C BE System Dynamics C .G5 AE:G<E >FG "G?DF:G2 AE :FDC>CBC7GE >G :C>FB5 BE6GCAF :EDF:EDG<E F ?G:=BE6GCAF ?8GB=;;EDE AF7BG EAAG >EB ;@C9F??C@F E C@@F?DF@ >FB Massachusetts Institute of Technology/ <3F ;F@:FDDF BE :C>FBBE6GCAF >G ?G?DF:G <C:;BF??G ACA BGAFE@G F <3F AF ;= EAEBG66E@F BF >GAE:G5 <3F EB 8E@GE@F >FB DF:;C2 +E :FDC>CBC7GE/ GAG5
6GEB:FADF <CA<F;GDE ;F@ GA>E7E@F 7BG G:;EDDG >G ?D@EDF7GF E6GFA>EBG/ % ?DEDE ;F@ BE ;@G:E 8CBDE E;;BG<EDE E> EBD@G ?FDDC@G 0=EA>C AFB C@@F5 ?DF@ ;=--BG<E GA =A ?=C BG-@C GB :C>FBBC â&#x20AC;&#x153;Urban Dynamicsâ&#x20AC;? F ?=<<F??G8E:FADF GB BE8C@C â&#x20AC;&#x153;Limits to Growthâ&#x20AC;? <C::G??GCAEDC EBB1 4 >EB #B=- >G )C:E F ;=--BG<EDC AFB 2 =F?DC ?F<CA>C BE8C@C F99FDD=E =AE ?G:=BE6GCAF >FBBE <@F?<GDE 7BC-EBF E@@G8EA>C E ;@F8F>F@F =A BG:GDF EBBE <@F?<GDE F EBBE ?C;@E88G8FA6E >FBBE ?;F<GF =:E5 AE2 "D=>G ?=<<F??G8G AF 3EAAC <CA9F@:EDC G @G5 ?=BDEDG >G:C?D@EA>C D=DDE B1F99G<E<GE F BE 8EBG>GD, >FBBE >GAE:G<E >FG ?G?DF:G AFB @E;;@F?FADE@F BF GADF@>G;FA>FA6F D@E ?G?DF:G G7=@E 2
Progetto CRISADMIN: supporto alla valutazione degli impatti dellâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Alluvione Genova 2014 (FBB1E:-GDC >G =A 9GAEA6GE:FADC F=@C;FC AE?<F GB ;@C7FDDC #)4"&. 4(/ ?8GB=;;EDC >EB DFE: >G @G<F@<EDC@G >FB ". System Dynamics '@C=;
$).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &
G7=@E ! Risultati del test di politiche di intervento alternative.
"E;GFA6E 2 +1EDDG8GD, >G @G<F@<E E99@CADEDE >EB 7@=;;C/ ?G % GA<FAD@EDE ?=BBE 0=EADG9G<E6GCAF >FBB1G:;EDDC >FBBF GADF@>G;FA>FA6F AFB <E:;C >FBBF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F urbane2 +E :FDC>C5 BC7GE 3E :C>FBBEDC BC ?<FAE@GC =@-EAC F 3E 8E5 B=DEDC 7BG G:;EDDG >FG ?=CG 9EBBG:FADG AFBB1E:-GFA5 DF ;@CDFDDC >FBBE ?G:=BE6GCAF2 #)4"&. 4( % @G=?<GDC AFBB1GADFADC >G :C>FBBE@F AFB <CADF?DC >FBBC ?<FAE@GC >FBBF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F =@-E5 AF/ ;@GA<G;EB:FADF 0=EDD@C GA9@E?D@=DD=@F! Energy, Telecommunication, Transportation e Apparatus2 4B :C>FBBC % ?DEDC ;@C7FDDEDC ;F@ @G5 <CAC?<F@F >=F ?;F<G9G<G F8FADG <@GDG<G! GB flooding F GB bombing attack 2 4B ;@C7FDDC 3E ;@C5 >CDDC =A ?G?DF:E >G ?=;;C@DC EBBF >F<G?GCAG/ =AC >F7BG ?D@=:FADG <3F :E77GC@:FADF ;C??C5 AC <CAD@G-=G@F EBB1F99G<E<GE >G =AE GA9@E?D@=DD=@E <@GDG<E GA DF@:GAG >G =A E=:FADC >FBBE <E;E<GD, >G ;@F8G?GCAF >F7BG G:;EDDG >FB 9EBBG:FADC >G =A ?G?DF:E2 F@ GBB=?D@E@AF BF ?=F ;CDFA6GEBGD,/ BC ?D@=:FADC ?8GB=;;EDC % ?DEDC DF?DEDC ?G:=BEA>C B1EBB=8GCAF E88FA=DE E 'FAC8E B1EAAC ;E??EDC2 (FBB1CDDC-@F BE <GDD, >G 'FAC8E GA 4DEBGE 3E >C8=DC E95 9@CADE@F =AE >@E::EDG<E F:F@7FA6E/ 0=EA>C >=F DF@6G >G 0=FBBE <3F % BE 0=EADGD, >G ;GC77GE ;@F8G?DE ;F@ =A GADF@C EAAC/ ?G % @G8F@?EDE ?=BBE <GDD, GA :FAC >G C@F2 +F <CA?F7=FA6F 9=@CAC >G?E?D@C?F! <EC?/ GA7FADG >EAAG :EDF@GEBG/ -BE< 5 C=D F ;F@>GDF >G 8GDF =:EAF2 +F G?DGD=6GCAG AFG 7GC@AG ?=<<F??G8G EBBE <EDE?D@C5 9F AED=@EBF 3EAAC ;=ADEDC GB >GDC ?=BBE ?<E@?E E95 9G>E-GBGD, >FG :C>FBBG :EDF:EDG<G >G ;@F8G?GCAF >FBBE ?C7BGE >G EBBE@:F2 4B :C>FBBC =DGBG66EDC E8@F--F >C8=DC ?G:=BE@F BE ?GD=E6GCAF @FEBF F ?F7AEBE@F BC ?DEDC >G EBBF@DE 0=EA>C 7BG GA>G<E5 DC@G ;@F>F9GAGDG E8F??F@C @E77G=ADC G 8EBC@G ?C7BGE ;F@ B1GADF@8FADC/ :E 0=F?DC % E<<E>=DC D@C;;C DE@>G @FA>FA>C 0=GA>G G:;C??G-GBF E@7GAE@F B1F5
:F@7FA6E2 +1GAF99G<GFA6E >FB ?G?DF:E =?EDC >EB5 BE :=AG<G;EBGD, >FB <E;CB=C7C BG7=@F @G?GF>F AFB5 BE ?<E@?E <C@@G?;CA>FA6E D@E 7BG GA>G<EDC@G >G <@GDG<GD, >FB :C>FBBC F BE ?GD=E6GCAF @FEBF <3F GA5 8F<F GA 0=FBBF C@F F@E 7G, :CBDC 8G<GAE EBBC ?DEDC >G F:F@7FA6E2 +C ?D@=:FADC >F<G?GCAEBF ?8GB=;;EDC >E "E;GFA5 6E 3E GA8F<F >G:C?D@EDC BE ?=E 8EBG>GD, >G ?G:=BE5 6GCAF >FBBE @FEBD,! ?=BBE -E?F >G >EDG @FEBG >FBBF ;@F<G;GDE6GCAG @F7G?D@EDF GA 0=FBBF C@F/ % @G=?<GDC E @G;@C>=@@F GB BG8FBBC >G E<0=E <3F ?G % C??F@8EDC >=@EADF B1EBB=8GCAF2 +E ?G:=BE6GCAF 3E @F7G?D@EDC GACBD@F GB :E??G:C BG8FBBC >FB 9G=:F G?E7AC AFBBC ?DF??C :C:FADC AFB 0=EBF B1F?CA>E6GCAF % @FEB5 :FADF E88FA=DE2 4B :C>FBBC 3E GACBD@F DFA=DC <CA5 DC >FBBE ?F@GF >G -BE< 5C=D <3F ?CAC ?DEDG @F7G?D@E5 DG GA <GDD, AFG 7GC@AG ?=<<F??G8G EBBF F?CA>E6GCAG2 #)4"&. 4( 3E GA9EDDG @G;@C>CDDC B1F99FDDC E <E5 ?<EDE >FG 9EBBG:FADG >FBBF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F >FBBE <GDD,/ G DF:;G >G @G?;C?DE >F7BG GADF@8FADG F >FG ?C<<C@?G ;C?D F:F@7FA6E2 4B :C>FBBC 3E >G:C?D@EDC <C? BE ?=E 8EBG>GD, >G ?G:=BE6GCAF >F7BG F8FADG F> % ?DEDC 0=GA>G ?=<5 <F??G8E:FADF =DGBG66EDC ;F@ DF?DE@F ;CBGDG<3F >G @G?;C?DE EBB1F:F@7FA6E2 "G D@EDDE >G DF?D <C?D@=GDG EB 9GAF >G <CA9F@:E@F BE DF?G <3F ;CBGDG<3F >G8F@5 ?F >E 0=FBBF <3F AFBBE @FEBD, ?CAC ?DEDF EDD=EDF E8@F--F@C E8=DC F99FDDG :G7BGC@G GA DF@:GAG >G <CA5 DFAG:FADC E> F?F:;GC >FBBF F?CA>E6GCAG2 4B :C5 >FBBC 3E >G:C?D@EDC <3F >G<3GE@E@F BC ?DEDC EBBE@5 :F >C;C :GA=DG E8@F--F @F?C ;C??G-GBF 9E@ DC@AE@F GB BG8FBBC >FBB1E<0=E E> =AC ?DEDC >G ;@F5 EBBF@DE 9G7=@E 2 ?E@F GB :C>FBBC ;F@ DF?DE@F BE <E;E<GD, >G E?5 ?C@-G@F B1F8FADC AED=@EBF F ;F@ ;@F>G@F F99FDDG >G ;CBGDG<3F >F<G?GCAEBG % =AE >FBBF <E@EDDF@G?DG<3F <3GE8F >G 0=F?DC DG;C >G ?D@=:FADG >F<G?GCAEBG2 A =BDF@GC@F =DGBG66C ?;F<G9G<C >G 0=F?DC DG;C >G :C>FBBG % BE ;C??G-GBGD, >G GA<B=>F@F AFBBE :C>FB5 BE6GCAF 0=FBBF 8E@GE-GBG <3F 8FA7CAC >F9GAGDF soft F <3F E;;E@DFA7CAC E> EBD@G E:-GDG >FBBE ?D@=DD=@E =@-EAE >FG 0=EBG ;F@ ACA ?G ;= ACA DFAF@ <CADC >=@EADF BE ?G:=BE6GCAF >G =A F8FADC
$).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &
<EDE?D@C9G<C <C:F 0=FBBC E88FA=DC E 'FAC8E2 C7BGE:C 9E@ @G9F@G:FADC E 8E@GE-GBG 0=EBG ;F@<F5 6GCAF >FBBC ?DEDC >G F:F@7FA6E >E ;E@DF >FBBE ;C;CBE6GCAF / <C:;C@DE:FADC >FBBF E=DC@GD, / ;F@<F6GCAF >F7BG G:;EDDG <3F/ =AE 8CBDE GAD@C5 >CDDF AFB :C>FBBC/ ;C??CAC >E@F BE 8F@E ;F@<F5 6GCAF >G 0=FBBG <3F ?CAC 7BG G:;EDDG >FB 9EBBG:FA5 DC >FBB1GA9@E?D@=DD=@E <@GDG<E F >FBBE ?=E >GAE:G<E >G ;@C;E7E6GCAF2 +C ?DF??C ?D@=:FADC % ?DEDC GACBD@F =DGBG66EDC ;F@ DF?DE@F 7BG G:;EDDG ?=BBF EBD@F GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F >FBBE <GDD,/ 0=EBG 7BG GADF@5 8FADG ?EAGDE@G F >G @F7CBE6GCAF >FBBE <CA7F?DGC5 AF GA <GDD,2 'BG F8FADG E<<E>=DG E 'FAC8E ?CAC ?CBC =AC >FG DEADG F?F:;G >G <C:F =A 9EBBG:FADC ?G ;C??E ;@C;E7E@F GA =AE <GDD, >E =A1GA9@E?D@=DD=@E <@GDG5 <E EBB1EBD@E 9GAC E <E=?E@F ?F8F@F ;@C-BF:EDG<3F >G ?G<=@F66E2 @C;@GC 0=F?DC % B1GADFADC >F7BG ?D@=:FADG >G ?=;;C@DC EBBF >F<G?GCAG ?8GB=;;EDG <CA B1E;;@C<<GC System Dynamics! >E@F =AE 8G5 ?GCAF <C:;BFDE >FBBF >GAE:G<3F >G GADF@>G;FA5 >FA6E D@E BF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F >G =AC ?<FAE5
@GC F/ EB ;@F?FADE@?G >G =A 9EBBG:FADC/ 9C@AG@AF =AE 0=EADG9G<E6GCAF >F7BG G:;EDDG >FB 9EBBG:FADC AFB DF:;C2 4A =AE ?C<GFD, <3F ?G D@C8E ?F:;@F >G ;G E> E95 9@CADE@F 9EBBG:FADG GA9@E?D@=DD=@EBG GA ?<FAE@G :CB5 DC <C:;BF??G/ G decision-makers >F8CAC F??F@F ?=;;C@DEDG >E ?D@=:FADG <C:F 0=FBBC >F?<@GDDC/ ?D@=:FADG GA 7@E>C >G EG=DE@F BE <C:;@FA?GCAF >FBBE <@F?<FADF <C:;BF??GD, >FBBF GA9@E?D@=DD=@F <@GDG<3F F >FBBF BC@C GADF@>G;FA>FA6F F <3F ;C?5 ?EAC F??F@F >G ?=;;C@DC EBBE ;@F8G?GCAF >F7BG G:;EDDG >FBBF ;G >G8F@?F ;CBGDG<3F >F<G?GCAEBG GA <E?C >G <@G?G2 +E System Dynamics ;F@:FDDF >G F?;BG<GDE@F G:;EDDG F GADF@>G;FA>FA6F 9C@AFA>C <C? BC ?D@=:FADC E>EDDC ;F@ BE ;@F8G?GCAF F DF?D >FBBF ;CBGDG<3F F:F@7FA6GEBG2
% 3DD;! 2<G?2=AG@C:E 2GD ".'@C=; )C:F
Per ulteriori articoli della presente pubblicazione IoRoma, consultare il sito: http://rivista.ording.roma.it
$).4(* .*'+4 4('*'(*)4 .*++& )$ 4(#4& .4 )$ &