18 minute read
Seen Elsewhere
ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING As the number of electric vehicles being purchased rapidly increases, so does the task of EV charging on electric utility companies. New research by Owen Wu and Şafak Yücel of Georgetown University, USA, and Yangfang (Helen) Zhou of Singapore Management University, published in the INFORMS journal Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (https://doi. org/10.1287/msom.2021.1019), finds that:
1. Allowing drivers to choose from a menu of prices and charging completion times is cheaper for drivers and electric utility companies, and cleaner for the environment. 2. A new electric vehicle charging model can reduce charging cost at public charging stations by 20% and associated emissions by 15% during a summer month. 3. The savings from implementing smart charging can mostly be achieved during peak-demand days.
The researchers argue that utilising new business models that promote ‘smart charging’ options can create a win-win situation that strengthens the mass market viability for the entire electric vehicle ecosystem.
O.R. FIGHTING DISEASES THROUGH FRENCH SUPPORT In the last decade, France has made a major financial commitment to fighting HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria across francophone countries, many of which are in the developing world. French project website L’Initiative reports France is maintaining its high level political and financial commitment to multilateral funds, contributing around €700 million a year since 2013. Between 2011 and 2017, €24.5 million of this funding went towards 22 projects and 35 ‘research missions’ that utilised operational research.
L’Initiative says the funding for O.R. ‘made it possible to support projects that seek to enhance the effectiveness of Global Fund grants, and the response to the three pandemics overall, in innovative ways.’ This year, the call is for O.R. projects relating to ‘HIV, HPV and associated cancers’. Benefits may include early detection, targeted treatment and improved cures, as well as better vaccination programmes and – ultimately – effective prevention programmes for some of these deadly diseases.
Find out more here: https://bit. ly/3tofgvW
$1 MILLION ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PRIZE Cynthia Rudin, a prominent INFORMS member, has been named the recipient of the Squirrel AI Award for Artificial Intelligence for the Benefit of Humanity from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI). The AAAI Squirrel AI Award is being dubbed the Nobel Prize of AI.
Rudin, is being honoured for her work in pioneering interpretable and transparent artificial intelligence (AI) systems in real-world deployments, the advocacy for these features in highly sensitive areas such as social justice and medical diagnosis and serving as a role model for researchers and practitioners. She is a professor of computer science and engineering at Duke University and is the second recipient of the new annual award. Rudin is also a three-time recipient of the INFORMS Innovative Applications in Analytics Award, which recognizes creative and unique applications of analytical techniques.
Rudin has applied her interpretable AI algorithms to several projects, beginning with her work with Con Edison, the energy company that powers New York City, where her team was working to predict power failures. She also collaborated with Massachusetts General Hospital designing a system to predict which patients are most at risk of having seizures after a stroke or other brain injury. Her work with the
© Cynthia Rudin
Cambridge (MA) Police Department developed an algorithm to discover similarities between crimes to determine whether they might be the work of the same criminal. Her work has been highly influential in establishing interpretable machine learning as a mainstream field within AI. This area has shown to be essential for trustworthy and responsible AI systems.
SHAPING GLOBAL STANDARDS FOR AI A UK Government press release (see https://bit.ly/AIGlobalStandards) announces that The Alan Turing Institute, supported by the British Standards Institution and the National Physical Laboratory, will pilot a new UK government initiative to lead in the shaping of global technical standards for AI, as part of a ten-year plan. DCMS Minister for Tech and the Digital Economy Chris Philp said this “marks the first step in delivering our new National AI Strategy and will develop the tools needed so organisations and consumers can benefit from all the opportunities of AI. We want the UK to lead the world in developing AI standards”.
THE STATE OF THE UK’S STATISTICAL SYSTEM 2020/21 A recent review, The state of the UK’s statistical system 2020/21 – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority. gov.uk) focussed on the current state of the UK’s statistical system. The authors wish to see the positive momentum of the past year harnessed and improvements made to ensure that statistics and data serve the public good now and in the future. It focuses on five areas found to be central to the statistical system’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It argues that the UK’s statistical system should be: 1. Responsive and proactive 2. Timely 3. Collaborative 4. Clear and insightful 5. Transparent and trustworthy
RESTORING MISSING DATA Researchers at the Pusan National University, South Korea, have developed an algorithm to repair missing data in event logs (see https://doi.org/10.1109/ TSC.2021.3118381). Event logs record each activity of a business process, which can then be analysed to improve the processes. Clearly a requirement for this to happen satisfactorily is accurate and complete data. The results obtained demonstrated that the proposed method can significantly improve both the quality of event logs and the overall quality of process mining analysis.
SETTING STANDARDS FOR DATA SCIENCE Six organisations within the UK have formed an ‘alliance’ with the goal of establishing professional standards for data scientists to adhere to, ‘to ensure an ethical and well-governed approach’ to data science. See https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01561
The Alliance for Data Science Professionals argues that standards are needed so that ‘the public, organisations and governments can have confidence in how their data is being used’.
In a statement, the group said: ‘While the skills of data scientists are increasingly in demand, there is currently no professional framework for those working in the field.’ The standards – due to be finalised by the autumn – ‘look to address current issues, such as data breaches, the misuse of data in modelling and bias in artificial intelligence’.
In addition to the Operational Research Society, the members of the Alliance are the Alan Turing Institute, the British Computer Society, the National Physical Laboratory, the Royal Statistical Society, and the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications.
Standards agreed by the group will be delivered as ‘data science certifications offered by the Alliance members to their professional members’. The standards will also be used as criteria ‘for Alliance members to accredit data science degrees, and data science modules of associated degrees, as contributing to certification’. Certified data science professionals will also be listed in a ‘single searchable public register’.
Gavin Blackett, the OR Society’s Executive Director, was asked what drew the Society into the Alliance: ‘Many of our members have been describing themselves as doing data science for quite a long time. We as a society have been keen to demonstrate that O.R. has a role to play in this, and that for data scientists, without a natural home, the OR Society could be one of those potential places for them to see as their professional home. So, we were very pleased when we were asked to come along to the launch meeting for what turned into the Alliance’.
© The OR Society
© Paula Carroll
OPPORTUNITIES FOR O.R. TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE
PAULA CARROLL
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) have documented changes in the Earth’s climate in every region and across the whole climate system. They have concluded that strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases can limit the impact of climate change such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Operational Research (O.R.) as a discipline emerged to provide decision support during World War 2 – a time of international crises. O.R. offers more than just theory – its ‘real world’ focus as an improvement science supports decision and policy making to improve the complex systems and processes that underpin society and enable our daily lives. Here, the opportunities to harness O.R. tools and techniques to address the climate change crisis are explored.
According to the IPCC “There’s no going back from some changes in the climate system. However, some changes could be slowed and others could be stopped by limiting warming.” The estimated tipping point is an increase in average temperatures of between 1.5 and 2°C. National and regional governments design climate and energy action plans to limit global warming to at most 1.5°C and achieve the ambitions set out in the Conference of the Parties (COP) summits. The UK’s Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan, EU National Energy and Climate Action
Plans, and international agencies such as the International Energy Agency “Net Zero by 2050”, set out priorities and roadmaps for the necessary global actions and commitments. Climate and energy policies aim to meet the commitments of the 2015 COP Paris Agreement to reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, while also allowing economic growth and citizen engagement. Deciding when and what to do is surely a problem that O.R. can address to support the clean energy transition.
THE ENERGY TRILEMMA As nations respond to the climate crisis, they must balance the need to provide power to sustain economic growth, with the need to do that in a greener more sustainable way. Policies and changes must also be implemented in an equitable manner. This gives rise to a set of multicriteria problems and sets the challenges for the Energy Trilemma – the challenge of transforming energy systems to be simultaneously secure, sustainable and fair.
The World Energy Trilemma index shown in Figure 1 has been developed to track nations’ progress across these three dimensions. European countries lead the way in balancing the Trilemma and occupy eight of the top 10 places in the 2021 Index. The role of fossil fuels is declining while renewable energy sources play an increasingly important role. 38% of EU electricity in 2020 was generated from renewables, overtaking coal and gas as the main electricity source for the first time. The World Energy Council (WEC) note that the EU Green Deal provides a framework for achieving climate-neutrality goals. Similarly, national policies and post-covid economic stimulus packages include sustainability and decarbonisation targets. The WEC note that Energy Security is being achieved through diversification of generation sources and interconnection, but internationally further pressure to phase-out coal is required.
The UK is ranked fourth in the world for 2021, behind Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark and equal with Finland, with an AAAa rating for Energy Security, Equity, and Sustainability. The UK imports fossil fuel but has decreased its usage of coal as a fuel source.
FIGURE 1 WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ENERGY TRILEMMA INDEX 2020 (taken from https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/entry/ world-energy-trilemma-index-2021) In the UK, coal consumption has been reduced to less than one-tenth of 1990 levels
BALANCING ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Figure 2 shows a Sankey diagram which helps us understand energy balance of supply and demand. In the UK, coal consumption has been reduced to less than one-tenth of 1990 levels as shown in Figure 3. Renewable electricity generation has outpaced fossil fuel generation during four of the last five quarters.
In the last issue of Impact, Bevan Freake https://doi.org /10.1080/2058802X.2021.1885234, describes the carbon calculator provided by the UK’s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. It allows users to see the links between electrification of heat and transport on the demand side and increasing renewable energy sources on the supply side. It is available at https://my2050.beis.gov.uk/
Countries with extensive coastlines like the UK and Ireland have taken advantage of their natural geographies and invested heavily in wind power. In 2020, the WEC noted that the UK managed 67 days straight without coalfired generation – the longest period since the industrial revolution – with wind and renewables estimated to contribute ∼36% of energy demand during that period. Figure 4 shows the increasing penetration of wind power. The increased penetration of renewables is not without its
FIGURE 2 UK ENERGY FLOW DIAGRAM (Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-energy-in-brief)
FIGURE 3 CHANGE IN UK ENERGY SUPPLY 1990–2020 (Source UK Energy in Brief 2021)
challenges due to their higher variability than traditional energy sources. There is a significant challenge to optimise the use of renewables while adhering to technical constraints of the electricity grid.
In a recent Impact article, https://doi.org/10.1080/20 58802X.2019.1582925, Martina Fischetti described how mathematics and technical knowledge can be combined to create models for offshore wind turbine location and cable
FIGURE 4 WIND POWER GENERATION, image used by permission of the World Energy Council. Source: Eurostat, August 2021.
connection problems. Using algorithms to solve these models provides recommended solutions with significant cost savings for such capital-intensive projects.
Brian Clegg also discusses the contribution or O.R. to addressing offshore wind farm problems in an Impact article (https://doi.org/10.1080/2058802X.2017.11964021). He describes the O.R. approach as an academic exercise with a strong focus on the practical benefits, and explains that operational researchers have a broad modelling toolkit. Where the engineers and geographers have a deep expertise on wind and power systems, O.R. can support better tools for optimisation while collaborating with such subject matter experts.
Turning to the demand side of the energy balance. Figure 5 shows the changing pattern of end-use in the UK from 1990 to 2020. 2020 was a strange year due to the Covid pandemic, with decreased economic activity and transport usage and increased domestic demand as many workers worked from home. We can see the significance of the domestic sector in terms of energy demand. We use energy in our homes to provide space and water heat, for cooking and to run appliances and provide lighting.
About 40% of the EU’s energy supply is wasted through inefficiencies, and about 36% of greenhouse gas emissions are produced by buildings. The EU has adopted an efficiency first principle and placed emphasis on improving energy performance in the building sector. According to the Energy Efficiency Indicators Overview Statistics Report published in December 2020 by the International Energy Agency, buildings account for about 40% of the global energy consumption. Across Europe ∼75% of buildings are energy inefficient and most of them (85% − 95%) will still be around by 2050. After “efficiency first” improvements such as insulation and low wattage lighting, smart approaches can be used to help householders understand their usage patterns and their potential to contribute to the green energy transition. Changes to market structures, policies to achieve climate action plans, and the availability of low carbon technologies mean the role of households and buildings is changing. The availability of data, statistical and Machine Learning (open source) software tools, and Smart Grid infrastructure enables Smart Green Homes and creates opportunities to support the transition of householders from passive end user consumers of energy to an active prosumer role where households both produce and consume energy. Prior to the adoption of low carbon technologies, only consumer demand was of interest.
FIGURE 5 UK ENERGY USE BY SECTOR IN MILLION TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT, 1990 VERSUS 2020 (Source UK Energy in Brief 2021)
© Paula Carroll
FIGURE 6 DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND- REPRESENTATIVE LOAD PROFILES Source: Author’s analysis of Irish Smart Meter Data, from the Commission for Energy Regulation (CER). 2012. CER Smart Metering Project - Electricity Customer Behaviour Trial, 2009-2010 dataset.
Figure 6 shows typical daily electricity patterns in Ireland. These data were gathered during a consumer behaviour trial of smart meters.
Bevan Freake notes that the impact on emissions of converting from petrol and diesel to electric vehicles is surprisingly small if the additional electricity demand is not supplied with low carbon renewable electricity generation. Likewise, the electrification of the heating sector will be successful when the additional electricity needed by the heat pumps comes from a renewable source. In a recent paper (Chesser et al., 2021), the author used statistical modelling to assess the performance of air source heat pumps in retrofitted homes in Ireland and found they meet the definition of renewable heat – that is the ratio of average heat produced to electricity consumers is above an acceptable threshold.
Network operators need to understand the impact of the changing profile of energy demand with increased demand from heat pumps, and electric vehicles, and the potential for self-consumption via distributed renewable energy sources such as solar thermal or photovoltaic systems. The traditional representative load profiles used to dimension the low voltage distribution network will have to be re-evaluated.
BARRIERS TO THE LOW CARBON TRANSITION – OPPORTUNITIES FOR O.R There are many barriers to achieving a low carbon energy system at technical, statutory, financial, and behavioural levels. A shortfall of information leads to difficulties for optimising measures and policies. Digitalisation of systems, including the power and energy systems through smart meters, may offer opportunities. O.R. and analytics may extract actionable insights from the wealth of data to support the low carbon transformation. Getting the design of policies and support schemes right is an ongoing challenge. Efficient market designs are also essential for mobilising necessary investments for the energy transition. The WEC note that in the UK for example, the 2020 Energy White Paper envisages that by 2050, clean electricity could meet over half of the country’s final energy demand, with increased use of light vehicles and home heating that will require a new approach to how the energy market would be designed, managed and regulated.
Low carbon systems can provide benefits to end-users such as improved local air quality and cost savings. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) note that advanced computational power and optimisation modelling software, and clear and transparent (wholesale) pricing methodology are two key enabling factors. O.R. has a history of modelling and understanding the capabilities and design requirements of Systems of Systems such as the Energy System.
The road to net-zero greenhouse gas economies includes many challenges to balance the overall energy supply and demand in a sustainable equitable manner. However, all changes face challenges alongside opportunities. O.R. and analytics offer a suite of tools and expertise to model and solve optimisation problems. O.R. has long provided mixed integer linear programming models to support the strategic design of networks, and their day-to-day operational and maintenance. It is interesting to note that George Dantzig developed the simplex method to solve an energy balance Linear Programming model.
The O.R. community can help with recommendations on where in the electricity grid intelligence and renewables should be located to best effect. O.R. can help with design choices from a national generation portfolio mix right down to optimal building low carbon technology design for
FIGURE 7 ROOFTOP PV THE UCD SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, OCTOBER 2021.
building occupants -helping to choose from a mix of low carbon technologies such as Photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage systems. The leading image to this article shows one example of PV panels in an unusual setting, a boat house on the Royal Canal, Dublin. PV panels can be installed on most residential rooftops and on larger institutional buildings such as schools and community buildings, see Figure 7.
O.R. can provide recommendations on when an occupant should consume the electricity, sell it to the grid, or store it in a battery. O.R. optimisation models can include a citizen/ home occupant perspective in addition to the O.R. models traditionally used by transmission and distribution systems operators to centrally manage the energy systems.
CONCLUSIONS Managing energy and electricity supply and demand is challenging from a number of perspectives: ensuring continuity of supply; the variability, intermittency and distributed nature of renewable energy sources; and the challenge to share in an equitable manner. O.R. tools and techniques such as Mixed Integer Linear Programming are ideal tools for the network and system combinatorial optimisation problems that arise in the energy transition. Statistical and Machine Learning analytics can help to model and extract insights using the data from the digitalised systems.
The energy transition will be marked by disruption and change. Many multicriteria problems will need to be modelled and solved to incorporate and prioritise the different dimensions of the energy trilemma and the perspectives of stakeholders. As Bevan Freake noted, there are many pathways to low carbon ways of living. The O.R. community would welcome the opportunity to contribute their valuable expertise on problem structuring, modelling and solving to help meet these challenges.
Paula Carroll is an Associate Professor at University College Dublin (UCD). With a background in electrical engineering, she worked in the telecommunications industry before completing a PhD in Network Design using O.R. approaches. She teaches and researches in Business Analytics and Operational Research and has a keen interest in modelling and solving problems that arise in the low carbon energy transition. She is founder and chair of the WISDOM Forum to support and encourage the participation of all genders in O.R. at a European level.
FOR FURTHER READING
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ department-for-business-energy-and-industrialstrategy/about/statistics https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ government/uploads/system/uploads/ attachment_data/file/991649/uk-integratednational-energy-climate-plan-necp-31january-2020.pdf Chesser, M., P. Lyons, P. O’Reilly and P. Carroll (2021). Air source heat pump in-situ performance. Energy and Buildings, 251: 111365. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.enbuild.2021.111365
