Hurricane Forecast Predicts “Above Normal” Season for 2022

By Terry Jaillet

The 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season is predicted to be above normal according to researchers at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. The initial release of the annual forecast was produced by Professor Michael M. Bell and Research Scientist Philip J. Klotzbach on April 7, 2022, and will be updated several times in the coming months.

The pair issued a statement that read, in part, “Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

The forecast predicts 19 named storms and nine hurricanes this year. Four of the hurricanes are expected to be major storms. The forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme developed using 40 years of data. They predict a 71% chance of a Category 3 or greater hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline this year.

The researchers, however, cautioned against relying too heavily on a long-range forecast, saying “Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year.” “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

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