HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS SECTION
Hurricane Forecast Predicts
“ABOVE NORMAL” SEASON FOR 2022 By Terry Jaillet
T
he 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season is predicted to be above normal according to researchers at Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. The initial release of the annual forecast was produced by Professor Michael M. Bell and Research Scientist Philip J. Klotzbach on April 7, 2022, and will be updated several times in the coming months. The pair issued a statement that read, in part, “Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
“Coastal residents are reminded that it The forecast predicts 19 named storms only takes one hurricane making landfall and nine hurricanes this year. Four of the hurricanes are expected to be major storms. to make it an active season for them, and The forecast is based on an extended-range they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is early April statistical prediction scheme predicted.” developed using 40 years of data. They predict a 71% chance of a Category 3 19 or greater hurricane making landfall on Named Storms the U.S. coastline this year. Hurricanes The researchers, however, cau14 tioned against relying too heavily on a Major Hurricanes long-range forecast, saying “Everyone should realize that it is impossible 8 to precisely predict this season’s 7 hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how 4 3 global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year.” 2022 Forecast Average 1991-2020
22 / Our City Miramar / May 2022 / OurCityMedia.com
