The sun shines bright in Sub-Saharan

Figure 1. Scatec Solar’s 40 MW Linde solar plant, located in the Northern Cape region of South Africa, generates 90 million kWh annually, enough to cover the electricity needs of approximately 20 000 households. Image courtesy of Scatec Solar.

Figure 2. Solar power plant and Energy Vault gravitational storage in Sudan, powering the GLB Alfalfa Farm.

trajectory is highlighted across many dimensions. At first sight, the most impressive figure to emerge from the study might be that the global solar sector will enter the terawatt level by 2022, only four years after the 0.5 TW level was reached. Further milestones to expect in the next few years include solar reaching 700 GW by the end of 2020, and 1.2 TW by 2023. However, slightly faster growth had already been expected as of last year, before the arrival of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s impact on the global solar sector

The Global Market Outlook presents the first results of a worldwide survey conducted in April by the Global Solar Council on the impacts of COVID-19 on the solar sector. Over 71% of polled solar businesses reported a decline in orders, of which six in 10 said that orders were down by up to 50%, and three in 10 experienced a decline of 50 - 90%. The effect of the pandemic on installation rates varies in different countries and segments, largely depending on how badly the countries suffered from COVID-19, and the response of governments.

This year, new solar grid connections are expected to drop for the first time in many years. In SolarPower Europe’s medium scenario, new global installed capacities will decrease by 4% to 112 GW in 2020. Compared to the forecasting in last year’s Global Market Outlook, when SolarPower Europe projected as much as 144 GW of new solar, this represents a loss of 32 GW. Now it is of utmost importance that governments do not disregard renewables and solar power when developing economic stimulus packages. If the world is serious about meeting the Paris Agreement climate targets, solar deployments not only need to get back on their recent growth track, but the installation rate of solar – the lowest-cost and most versatile power generation technology – must increase much faster, in the short-term and mid-term.

Diversification of solar demand around the world

In comparison, 2019 was a successful year for solar. Demand grew by 13% to 116.9 GW, and it would have increased further if the world’s largest market, China, had not continued its restructuring efforts, resulting in an even stronger drop in demand than the year before. India, the world’s third largest photovoltaic (PV) market, also declined for multiple reasons. One key takeaway from SolarPower Europe’s report is that global solar demand continues its diversification process.

As the number of countries that strongly embrace solar increases, it reduces the risk that market contractions in major solar countries depress the entire sector.

Notable growth regions in 2019 included Europe, which added 22.9 GW – more than twice the capacity of the previous year – and the Middle East and Africa, where tenders primarily helped several countries turn into viable on-grid solar markets. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, these tenders were frequently and successfully facilitated by developing finance institutions, which is why SolarPower Europe included, with support from GET.invest, a chapter in its report that provides a detailed background on gridconnected solar in that region. To provide better insights into the world’s most promising markets, SolarPower Europe also invited leading national solar associations of gigawatt-scale solar markets – 16 in 2019, up from 11 in 2018 – to contribute an analysis of solar in their country.

Sub-Saharan Africa achieves gigawatt milestone

Ensuring steady access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy is a key milestone for emerging markets when laying the foundations for sustainable development. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the lowest rates of access to electricity in the world – in 2018, only 48% of the population had access to electricity. In fact, the electrification rate is increasing – between 2010 and 2018, it grew by 14%, from 34% to 48%, and five out of 46 Sub-Saharan countries have reached electrification rates above 90% (Seychelles, Mauritius, Cabo Verde, Gabon, and South Africa). However, these numbers show there is still a long way to go to power all people. Low-cost and versatile solar energy is a particularly appropriate solution to speed up that process – from very small solar PV systems to large utility-scale PV power plants. The solar potential in Africa is immense thanks to high solar yield potential (ranging between 1500 kWh/kWp per year to over 2000 kWh/kWp per year) and strong demand. Yet the continent’s installed capacity today (3.8 GW) represents less than 1% of the world’s solar capacity, and less than 3% of Africa’s power generation capacity.

In terms of annual market size in 2019, the Sub-Saharan Africa solar market more than doubled, adding nearly 1.3 GW of installations, and thus reaching gigawatt-scale for the first time ever. South Africa dominated 2019, accounting for roughly 40% of all installations in Sub-Saharan Africa. Aside from South Africa, the other three largest markets in 2019 were Namibia, Kenya, and Zambia, with around 100 MW of installations each. SolarPower Europe’s projections show that between 2020 - 2024, the Sub-Saharan Africa solar market will see a significant increase in installed capacity. According to the medium scenario, the region will add 21 GW of solar in this period. Once again, South Africa is expected to remain the largest market in the near future. However, recent political commitments to renewables and attractive regulatory frameworks are expected to catapult a number of smaller markets to become leaders, with annual additions in the hundreds of megawatts – in countries such as Zambia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria.

Figure 3. Solar electricity generation cost in comparison with other sources 2009 - 2019.

Figure 4. Annual solar PV installed capacity.

Figure 5. Annual solar PV market scenarios 2020 - 2024.

Maturing national and international support instruments enabled the market growth in recent years. Policies and regulations for off-grid solutions have improved faster than those for grid electrification. For rural and isolated communities, off-grid solutions such as mini-grids, solar home systems, and solar lamps have received a considerable level of attention as they allow for basic access to electricity even where there is no grid available. This was also the case many years ago, but what has changed on the commercial side includes the cost of solar equipment, and the business models

that are now often based on ‘solar as a service’ or ‘payas-you-go’ (PAYG) solutions, which have made solar power affordable to a much larger group of people.

Powering agriculture in Sudan with solar and innovative gravitational storage

Utility-scale independent power producer (IPP) projects in Sub-Saharan Africa are often developed through individually negotiated contracts or tenders. These projects are usually completed in the absence of an appropriate regulatory framework, such as a tender scheme, directly between a developer and the public utility or the government. Even though several utility-scale projects in the tens of megawatts have been developed on an individually negotiated basis, there is a trend towards competitive tenders, which can reduce transaction costs significantly.

An example of an IPP project in development in SubSaharan Africa is Agri Green Energy’s project, which aims to supply solar power for irrigation purposes to the GLB Alfalfa Farm in Sudan, located approximately 100 km north of Khartoum. Sponsored by the Haggar Group and its technical partners, Photon Energy, a global solar power solutions and service company, and Energy Vault, the creator of a gravity-based energy storage solution, the project centres on a gravitation storage system that consists of two 130 m high towers (each with storage capacity of 30 MWh) with 5000 concrete blocks (2 t each) that will be hoisted up during the day with the PV power, and released at night to generate power. The system allows power generated during the day to be stored around the clock and power the farm according to the scheduled irrigation plans.

The planned solar power plant will be a fixed groundmounted installation with capacity of 19 MW, including 2 MW to pump water from the River Nile. It will be equipped with gravitational storage with 60 MWh capacity, which will allow the replacement of a 9 MW diesel generator, even though the existing diesel generators will remain in place as emergency back-up. Also innovative is the financing of the project, which will be structured under a multi-investor blended finance project company (SPV). The financing will be undertaken according to international project finance principles, including customary off-take, project completion, and performance warranties. The total investment in the project is approximately US$34 million, with a 35% equity/65% senior debt ratio. Power costs to the farm are expected to be approximately US$0.14/kWh.

Strong global solar recovery expected with appropriate policy frameworks

While SolarPower Europe assumes in its medium scenario a notable 34% growth rate to 150 GW in 2021, which does anticipate significant levels of government recovery support, this capacity would still be 6% short of last year’s 2021 forecast. It will take until 2022 to get back on track, reaching 169 GW. Only in 2024 are the impacts of COVID-19 expected to be fully left behind. So now it is even more important that policymakers provide the appropriate frameworks so that all of society can benefit from cheap, flexible, and clean solar.

Figure 6. Sub-Saharan Africa annual solar PV market scenarios 2020 - 2024.

Figure 7. Sub-Saharan Africa solar PV market shares 2019.

Figure 8. The Victoria & Alfred Waterfront in Cape Town, South Africa, is powered by a 7500 m 2 rooftop solar system from SMA, with an overall output of 1093.8 kWp, and a daily output of 4495 kWh, which reduces 1610 tpy of carbon emissions. Image courtesy of SMA.

While COVID-19 has taken its toll on solar’s development, the recovery packages are an opportunity to enable this sustainable technology to return even stronger. It is essential to accelerate the deployment of the lowest-cost clean power generation sources – solar and wind – and bolster the relevant infrastructure, such as power grids. But the groundwork must be laid down now, enabling the large-scale production of renewable hydrogen, so as to turn the 2020s into a solar decade, fully unleashing the power of the sun.

Roger Tian and Roberto Murgioni, JinkoSolar, China, analyse the design and application of the latest high-efficiency Tiger PRO module to provide increased power to the photovoltaic industry.

The new Tiger Pro series by JinkoSolar has been the first one to redefine the highest power in the photovoltaic (PV) industry – with 585 W of power on 15 May 2020. Moreover, this emphasises JinkoSolar’s entrance into a new era, with its modules of 500+ Wp. However, JinkoSolar is turning the attention of the industry to the technology rather than the size of the silicon wafers. Meanwhile, the industry has given positive feedback on the system compatibility and system cost reduction of the Tiger Pro series. The design and application advantages of the new Tiger Pro products on the system side are outlined here.

Lower Voc and lower system cost

The low Voc and temperature coefficients of the modules can increase the number of modules on the unit group string, and if the DC side capacity of the project is known, the total number of strings in the project can be reduced. It is well known that if the total number of modules in the system is reduced, the corresponding cable costs and mounting system costs will be reduced, as well as the labour costs involved in the project. Especially for large PV projects, the capacity ratio of the whole project can also be improved accordingly. The Voc under standard conditions for JinkoSolar’s new Tiger Pro module is 49.5 V (bifacial). 530 W @ STC = 25˚C, G = 1000 W/m 2 , AM = 1.5).

VDC,MAX N ≤ V oc (1 + C T,V (T lowest - 25)

If the lowest temperature of a location ever recorded is 0˚C, using 530 W modules in a 1500 V system on the DC side, the temperature coefficient is -0.28% per ˚C. According to the standard calculation method recommended by IEC62548, each series of components can take up to 28 strings per group. JinkoSolar also use modules from two other manufacturers for comparison. The standard algorithm recommended by IEC is outlined here, where V oc is open circuit voltage under standard conditions, V DC,MAX is system voltage, T lowest is minimum temperature ever recorded, and C T,V is the temperature coefficient of V oc .

If the calculation method recommended by some inverter vendors is used, the operating temperature of the modules will be higher than the ambient temperature due to the consideration of the heat caused by solar irradiance. Consequently, the temperature correction value of the module’s Voc will be increased, and a single set of strings can connect more modules.

High efficiency

The higher efficiency will save the area of the whole PV plant and decrease the land lease fee. In the meantime, a module with JinkoSolar advanced technical innovation aims to bring greater power output which can benefit the project and the clients.

For a research project taking place in Vietnam, JinkoSolar used Tiger Pro 530 W modules and found other types of modules to compare the balance of systems (BOS) cost of these different modules. As shown in Table 2, the BOS cost of modules varies by different power levels, and Tiger Pro 530 W modules have been found to perform better in comparison.

Compatibility with trackers

Through the deep communication with a tier 1 tracker manufacturer, JinkoSolar informs that the dimension Tiger Pro products are more compatible with the design of the tracking mounting system. In general, the tracking mounting system is composed of foundation, torque tubes and purlin bars, and the cost of the mounting system is mainly composed of these parts. Among the mounting system costs, the torque tubes account for the largest proportion, generally 25 - 35%. Based on the relationship between the torque load and the length of the modules, it can be considered that the torque load is proportional to the square of the length of the component.

For Tiger Pro 72 tiling ribbon/transparent backsheet modules, the length and weight of the modules will be smaller than those of other manufacturers in the same industry, due to the use of tiling ribbon and transparent backsheet technology. This results in a reduction of torque tubes costs. This is important because this part has the most significant impact on the total cost.

In addition, the load area decreases as the length of the modules is reduced, as well as the