In Focus: Experts’ Picks
ISSUE 451 07/01/13 - 20/01/13 www.sharesinv.com
2013 Market Outlook & Stock Picks:
EXPERTS’ FAVOURITES Other Features
ISSN 0218-8716
SI Portfolio Beats The STI For The Fourth Consecutive Quarter MICA (P) 026/11/2012 · PPS 1687/07/2013(022975)
Will the market of
?
outperform 2012
2013 2013 MARKET OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Professor Chan Yan Chong
Column
T
Prof Chan Yan Chong
he Hong Kong and Singapore markets ended the year on a solid footing owing to the impact of QE III that was introduced last September. The two stocks that I love – Galaxy Entertainment (HK: 027) and Yuexiu Property (HK: 123) rose by more than 100 percent. The rise of Galaxy Entertainment also boosted the share price of K Wah International, who owns 162.5 million shares in the former. Among the property stocks, New World Development (HK: 017) fared the best by rising 92 percent. At the beginning of last year, I recommended two stocks that fell the most and New World Development did not disappoint me while Esprit Holdings edged up a mere 7 percent. The shares of HSBC (HK: 005) jumped 38 percent while Standard Chartered managed gains of only 15 percent, which means that the latter has a good chance of catching up with HSBC. I will
refrains from recommending the worst-performing stocks in the Hang Seng component stable because it is more catch up after a sterling 2012. Moreover, it is likely that these stocks have some inherent weaknesses, hence, it is only worthwhile to pick laggards when stock markets have corrected heavily. 2013 is a year for us to “dance with hot money”. These hot money will not being about real economic growth but only speculative opportunities. Both Hong Kong and Singapore economies did not do well in 2012 while the western countries faced weak consumption abilities. It is likely that Chinese tourists to various destinations will increase in 2013, boosting consumption. The global economy remains weak despite three-and-a-half rounds of quantitative easing. On the other hand, the US government cannot stop printing because it needs to repurchase US Treasuries
that are no longer the investment tool of choice for investors. Unless the Fed buys back these treasuries, yields will rise and push the US economy into yet another deep recession. The move by the European Central Bank to purchase unlimited amounts of government debt ended the debt crisis in September 2012. that hot money will wreak havoc around the world. It is estimated that interest rate will remain low in the US in 2013, hence, it will be tough to push down property prices, which will only fall with a huge increase in supply. I took a vacation with my family in Thailand, which is Christmas not being a public holiday in Thailand. The prices in Thailand remain low – even lower than some parts of China especially the coastal region – hence, we can expect Thailand’s manufacturing industry to take off. The Chinese leader’s push to encourage urbanisation
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of rural areas is to provide the service industry with more labour so as to depress wages. The rapid rise in wages has eroded China’s competitiveness but higher wages also mean stronger buying power. However, Chinese love to save and not spend and, thus, the huge number of Chinese tourists visiting the branded luxury shops are not representative of the entire China. into Hong Kong will find its final destination in China because of the recent policy to open up RQF II (Renminbi Investor). Much will depend on the new leaders regarding this issue once they take over in March. It is always the case when the “caretaker� government tends to do nothing just like what George Bush did before Obama took over. QE I was introduced only when Obama took over White House. I am concerned that the hot money will lose its patience waiting for the Chinese government to open up its of fact, Hong Kong equities are cheap so it is quite confusing why hot money is only interested in speculating are talks that retail investors are the ones buying up this particular ETF because of
rumours that hot money are buying up the same. US equities are quite near historical high but are US companies making more other hand, Hong Kong companies are really making more money than they did are still attractive. It is only a matter of time before even US to Hong Kong. When the Japanese parliament was dissolved, the Yen started to weaken because it is expected that the Liberal Democratic Party will be swept into power. The moment the new Prime M i n i s t e r t o o k o ff i c e , h e 2 percent and the fastest way to do so will be to weaken the Yen. This is also expected Japan into Hong Kong. With widespread of money being printed by almost all the governments in the world except for China, there is a likelihood that such money will be used to purchase Chinese assets. This is bad for China because it has been using its vast reserves to purchase foreign assets, especially natural resources. But with prices of assets rising, the amount of money that China has can now buy lesser assets. It seems that not wanting to print more
money is a wrong move by the Chinese government. China International Marine Containers Group (HK: by transferring mainland B shares into H shares. This is the first of its kind and failure is not accepted. If this new initiative proves to be a success, it will lead to more Chinese companies listing its shares in Hong Kong. This will be bullish for the shares of the The shares of the exchange fell when it took over London Mercantile Exchange but fears of earnings dilution have been overplayed. This is a good time to buy into shares of the Hong Kong Exchange.
Professor Chan will be the main speaker for our upcoming event Conference. For those who are interested in attending the conference, online registration can be done through the event website w w w. s h a r e s i n v. c o m / moc2013si
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PersPective text : Jade Lee, Louis Lee & Nicholas Tan
SI Portfolio Beats The STI For The 4th Consecutive Quarter; 43.5% YoY
W
e have seen many t h i n g s happen in 2012 from the re-election of President Obama, the Eurozone debt crisis that is continuing to weigh kets to China’s slowdown. Nevertheless, the Straits Times Index (STI) still managed to perform pretty well this year, with a total return of 19.7 per-
cent (as at 31 December 2012) as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (+7.3 percent). So how did our SI Portfolio fare after all? Since the start of 2012, our SI portfolio has been outperforming the STI for each cumulative quarter. At present, we are happy to say that we have beaten the STI for four consecutive quarters, and have generated a total return
on the portfolio of 43.5 percent (inclusive of dividends) as at 31 December 2012. For the fourth quarter, our top three performing stocks are Super Group Holdings, Global Logistics Properties and Ezion Holdings.
Super Group Roars In Share Price Gains Super Group has generated a return of more than 140 percent. It continues to be fuelled by its reach, and higher product sales.
effective cost management. This double digit growth in earnings was despite macro-economic uncertainties, which stems its resilience and highlights its robust business model. Its branded consumer sales continue to see upside performance as sales from this segment is typically stronger in the second half of the year following festive seasons. that Super has been traditionally strong in mitigating such exposures. As at 30 September 2012, Super has a healthy balance sheet with cash and bank balances of $72 million.
Ezion Brings In Strategic Investors To Pursue Growth Strategy Ezion Holdings’ share price hit a historical high to end the year at $1.69, substantiating a 156.1 percent gain since the beginning of 2012. Notably, Ezion’s share price for the fourth quarter continued its ascend and climbed 25.7 percent on the back of news that strategic investors were roped-in to back its growth strategy. Most recently, in as many months, Ezion announced its second strategic placement. EDB In7
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backing of an esteemed partner like EDBI signals a positive vibe for the industry and will allow its business in the vibrant offshore oil and gas industry.
construction and engineering, we believe the engagement of Tan as a strategic partner and ad
worth of contracts to provide two service rigs over a seven year period to support the oil and gas activities of a national oil major in Central America, which will lead to earnings accretion from 1Q13
GLP J-REIT Joins TSE; Likely Higher Yield Payout Than TSE REIT Index Modern warehouse provider GLP, which announced several big moves for the past couple of months, has seen its share price jumped 10.8 percent for the three months ended 31 December 2012, further translating into a whopping 58.9 percent jump since beginning of the year. Of the recent moves, the disposal of its 30 properties in Japan to set up a real estate investment corporation in Japan (GLP J-REIT) once again caught our eyes. In fact, the deal was earnings
In view of the bleak Japanese economy, the listing of GLP J-REIT has unavoidably raised concern of continued buying interest. Yet, a comforting note is that the Bank of Japan has been
gain since at least 2004. The scarcity of modern warehouse in Japan would also further substantiate GLP J-REIT’s business rationale in the near future. Notably, Takeshi Akagi, head of research and advisory for Jones Land Lasalle mentioned that the demand for modern warehouses has been set to rise as more companies were outsourcing logistics business to cut costs and the volume of internet shopping property and asset manager of the REIT. Meanwhile, GLP J-REIT plans to enhance shareholders’ payout with money that Japanese
6.8 percent based on the indicative price of 60,500 yen, as compared to average dividend yield local as well as international investors seeking high yield investments.
Conclusion As we move into the first green patch of 2013, we are thankful for the gains that have been reaped in 2012. Although
good 23.9 percentage points, we are humbled by such performance on our portfolio, as 2012 has indeed been a year that
has seen many different things which could break the market in we will continue searching for stock gems in 2013 for you!
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1/3/13 4:56 PM
SI Portfolio 2012 Portfolio Information
Performance Chart
Portfolio Size: $143,540.60* (as at 31 Dec 2012) Initial Investment: $100,000 Benchmark: FTSE Straits Times Index Portfolio Inception: 30 December 2011 Review Period: Quarterly
SI Portfolio
STI
Source: Compiled by Shares Investment
As At 30 Dec 2011 As At 31 Dec 2012
As At 28 Sep 2012
Holdings Share Price
Amount
Share Price
Amount
Industry Breakdown 4Q Performance (%)
-
-
$3.820
$19,100
3.540
7.91
Keppel Corp
9.300
$9,300
$11.000
$11,000
11.400
-3.51
ComfortDelGro
1.420
$5,680
$1.780
$7,120
1.715
3.79
M1
2.500
$10,000
$2.710
$10,840
2.750
-1.45
ST Engrg
Olam
2.130
$6,390
$1.555
$9,330
2.050
-24.15
GLP
1.760
$8,800
$2.780
$13,900
2.510
10.76
Ezion
0.655
$7,205
$1.690
$18,590
1.345
25.65
-
-
$0.545
$3,270
0.560
-2.68
Super Group
1.320
$7,920
$3.240
$19,440
2.190
47.95
Sound Global
0.545
$7,000
$0.580
$8,120
0.535
8.41
OKP Hldgs
0.530
$7,420
$0.510
$7,140
0.540
-5.56
LippoMalls
0.350
$8,400
$0.490
$11,760
0.455
7.69
Cordlife Group
Performance As At 31 December 2012
REIT 8.46%
Share Price Water 5.80%
Construction 5.86%
Multi-Industry 22.56%
Land Transport 5.31%
Manufacturing 10.18%
Telco 8.52%
Healthcare 2.60% Oil & Gas 11.46% Properties 9.72%
Commodity 9.53%
Style Breakdown High Yield 8.46%
Stable 55.63% Growth 35.91%
Since Inception
SI Portfolio
+43.54%
STI
+19.68%
* Inclusive of dividend received from OCBC ($0.31), Keppel Corp ($0.44), ComfortDelgro ($0.062), M1 ($0.145), Olam ($0.04), GLP ($0.03), Ezion ($0.001), Cordlife Group ($0.018), Q&M ($0.00675), Super Group ($0.058), Sound Global ($0.01), OKP Hldgs ($0.02), LippoMalls ($0.0274). The information contained in the factsheet does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and is used solely for illustrative purposes only.
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DE DVN EJWJEFOE YE FY EJWJEFOE DC DVN CPOVT YC FY CPOVT
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