การพัฒนาตลาดตราสารหนี้

:

-

-

Email : pimpen@pdmo.go.th 7

10.15 – 12.00

: E-Book 2555

by AGE

PDMO is driven by young generation with wits & will

22

40%

60

23

24

25

26

27 HiPPS

50

40

30

20

10

HiPPS

0 AGE range

23-25 26-30

31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 Total = 223

130

2553 บริหารสูง (10)

1

ทรงคุณวุฒ ิ (10)

1

บริหารต้น (9)

1/10 1/10

133 235

1/57 1/53 1/35

1,200 2,000 3,600

1/100 1/100

4,700 18,500

1

1

อานวยการสูง (9 บส)

1

2

3

4

่ วชาญ (9 ชช) เชีย

1

2

3

4

อานวยการต้น (8 บก)

1

2

ชานาญการพิเศษ (8ว)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

ชานาญการ (6-7)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

ปฏิบ ัติการ (3-5)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

+1

2553

2553

5

+10

1 10 40

41

42

43

44

40

41

42

43

44

45

:

46

47

48

49

50

28

0%

Source : CIA – The World Fact Book 12% 11%

18%

9%

108. Hong Kong

18%

8%

17%

16% 15% 15% 14%

107. China

8%

19% 19% 19% 18%

60%

18%

31. India

18%

22. England

18%

8. Greece

14%

24% 20% 20%

28%

20%

27% 26%

26% 25%

69%

19%

29% 28%

108%

19%

31%

31%

31%

30%

30%

30%

89. Indonesia

42%

30%

56. Thailand

24%

33% 33%

32% 32% 32%

2012

32%

Legal

24%

35% 35% 35% 34% 34%

HR

31%

40% 39% 38%

Benchmark bond / Asia Bond / Sovereign Fund Management

38%

Bond market development

38%

Debt management (SOEs)

33%

44% 44% 44% 43%

48%

43%

Research & Policy Planning

36%

47% 47%

53%

46%

42. America

46%

Public Debt to GDP (by country)

46%

personnel

45%

Credit scoring / Yankee Bond / Samurai Bond

42%

49% 49% 49%

48% 48%

Risk modeling / credit rating / loan negotiation

41%

50%

47%

54% 54% 53% 52% 52%

59%

50%

59%

59% 58%

192%

58%

2. Japan

58%

304%

304%

55%

192%

1. Zimbabwe

55%

64% 64%

62% 61% 60% 60%

75% 72% 70% 69%

185%

IT

54%

50% 68%

77%

67%

115%

18. Germany

67%

83%

80% 80%

78%

108%

150%

78%

% 105%

10 99%

156%

200%

95%

132%

% to GDP

77%

87%

118%

304%

Zimbabwe Japan Saint Kitts and Nevis Lebanon Jamica Singapore Italy Greece Sudan Belgium Iceland Nicaragua Sri Lanka Egypt France Hungary Israel Germany Portugal Canada Jordan United Kingdom Ghana Malta Austria Cote d'Ivorie Ireland Netherlands Croatia Norway India Phillippines Uruguay Mauritius Malawi Bhutan El Salvador Albania Kenya Morocco World United States Cyprus Vietnam Spain Panama Costa Rica Argentina Turkey Malaysia Poland United Arab Emirates Tunisia Brazil Aruba Columbia Thailand Pakinstan Bolivia Seychelles Switzerland Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina Dominican Republic Finland Yemen Denmark Bangladesh Montenegro Mexico South Africa Cuba Gabon Slovakia Pupua New Guinea Taiwan Czech Republic Guatamala Latvia Macedonia Syria Ethiopia Zambia Slovenia Lithunia Serbia Moldova Bahrain Ukraine Indonesia New Zealand Korea, South Trinidad and Tobago Mozambique Peru Tanzania Honduras Paraguay Senegal Saudi Arabia Ecudor Romania Iran Venezuela Uganda Namibia Australia China Hong Kong Botswana Nigeria Angola Gibraltar Bulgaria Luxembourg Cameroon Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Algeria Chile Kuwait Estonia

What can you do @ PDMO? (

PDMO manages the Nation’s Portfolio… 4,248,399,540,000baht (42% of GDP) 1

CFO 1.1

1.1.1

Financial market monitoring & execution

Settlement & forex

Audit

Too BiG Too FaLL???

WORLD 54%

6. Singapore

118%

Very High HDI 2009 est.

High HDI

Medium HDI

32. Philippines

Low HDI

50. Malaysia

91. South Korea

1.2

8

1.3

Debt management (Gov’t) 1.2.1 /GDP 1.3.1

1.2.2 / 1.3.2

1.4

1.4.1

2.1

Project Finance 2.1.1

2.2

2.2.1 Benchmark Bond

Floating Rate Bond

2.2.2

4

2554-2556

May 2011

2

2.3

2.3.1

3

(Pro-active Debt Management)

Benchmark

3.1 3.2

3.1.1

IT 3.2.1

3.3

PMQA

3.3.1

3.2.2

1.2.3

Debt Prepayment Allocation 1.2.4

5 :

3.4

Financing & monitoring MEGA projects 3.4.1

Capital Market Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

3 3 Pillars of Financial Market System Capital market

3

Loan Market

The Rude Awakening Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

% of GDP

140% 128%

120% 100%

92%

80%

77%

67%

60%

7.7 THB Trillion March 2012

40% 24% Asian Fin. Crisis

20%

12%

Bank Loan /GDP

Equity/GDP

Bond Market / GDP

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

0%

Debt Market

Market maker

Commercial banks

Corporate/SOE

Market participants

Borrowers/Savers

Investors1

Products

Loans/Deposits/LC

Stock

Loan Bond/Saving Bond/ T-bill/ Promissory Note

Returns

Interest rates

Dividend/Capital Gain

Coupons

1 - Yearly cumulative since 1 Jan 2010 – 23 Aug 2010 2 - As of June 2010

1997 Asian Financial Crisis

Equity Market Retail 60% Domestic Institution 20% Foreign Institution 20%

Corporate/MOF/BOT/SOE Investors2

Retail 78% Domestic Institution 18% Foreign Institution 4%

Bond Market Developed Rapidlyand andEfficiently Efficiently The The ThaiThai Bond Market hasHas Developed Rapidly

Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly for More Than a Decade Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

As of March 2012 (Classified by Types of Issuers)

120% 100%

92% 77% 67%

80% 60%

24%

40%

7.7 THB Trillion

Asian Fin. Crisis

20%

Baht Bond

1%

Corp. Bond

19%

SOE Bond

6%

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

2000

Equity / GDP

BOT Bond

Bond Market / GDP

2.9 THB Trillion

Maturity Profile

38%

BOT vs GOVT Bond BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 6yrs 7mths

14%

68% BOT < 1y

GOVT Bond 18%

MOF

29%

20% 3%

28%

20%

2-3y

3-5y

6-10y

11-50y

2.7 THB Trillion

Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments

36%

1,150,000 THB Mil. ($40 bil)

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

LB 3 yr

150,000 THB Mil. ($5 bil.)

LB 5 yr

120,000 THB Mil. ($4 bil.)

LB 7 yr

80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)

LB 10 yr

80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)

LB 15 yr

60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.)

LB 20 yr LB 30 yr

60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.)

30,000 THB Mil. ($1 bil.)

LB 50 yr

20,000 THB Mil. ($0.8 bil.)

Benchmark Bond 10 7 5

3

 Bond Market Capitalisation tripled  Government Bonds Outstanding grew by 50 times  Government Bond Market Share jumped from 3% in 1997 to 44% in 2000

 Regular Benchmark Issuance  New Product Development  Regular Market Dialogue with BoT and PDs

Development Oriented

Next Step 2011-13: (Market Deepening Oriented)  50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond  Upgrade PD Privileges Regional Linkage (CGIF) Amortizing Bond Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation

67%

March 2012

Bank Laon / GDP

2007 – 2010 :

Volume Oriented

12% 1992

0%

Post Crisis – 2000 :

50 30 20

15 ($20 bil.)

Benchmark Bond

~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

($3 bil.)

Savings Bond

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

($3 bil.)

Promissory Note

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

($1.5 bil.)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($1.5 bil.)

Inflation-Linked Bond

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($1.2 bil.)

Floating Rate Bond

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($7 bil.)

Bank Loan

($40 bil.)

Total

~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)

Pre-Crisis - Illiquid Bond Market - Absence of Benchmark Bond - Dominated by SoE’s Bonds

% of GDP

128%

140%

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Domestic Bond Market Capitalisation = 7.7 THB Trillion

THB Trillion

% of GDP

FY2007 – FY2013

Development of Government Debt Securities

Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

FY 2007-10

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

50-year Benchmark Bond March 2nd 2011

12-year and 18-year Fixed-rate Promissory Bond

30-year Benchmark Bond

December 22nd 2010

April 23nd 2008

FY 2011

10-year Inflation Linked Bond July 11th 2011

6-year Step-up Savings Bond

5-year Step-up Savings Bond

June 7th 2010

4-year Floating Rate Bond

FY 2012-2013

July 15th 2009

3-year Retail Bond @ ATM

July 27th 2009

September 12th 2011

FY 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012-2013

2550 PDMO Revised the Strategy of Benchmark Bond Issuance in 3 ways (FY2007-FY2013) ,

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

I. Reduce Auction Frequency

II. Increase Auction Size

from

Once a Week to Every Other Month

(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 15,00020,000

Unit : THB Mil

4,000 FY

6,0008,000 FY

III. Increase Outstanding Size

8,00010,000

FY

10,00012,000

FY

12,00015,000

FY

FY

FY

FY

F

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 150,000200,000

Unit : THB Mil

40,000

15,00020,000

50,00080,000 FY

80,000100,000

FY

100,000120,000

FY

100,000120,000

FY

120,000150,000

FY

FY

F

30-yr Loan Bond

• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity ATM Government Debt Portfolio  5.7yrs to 6.1yrs • Meet long term investors’ demand

Floating Rate Bond

• Increase floating debt ratio (10% to 18%) • Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)

Step-up Savings Bond

• Broaden investor base – Retail investors • Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond

Fixed Rate Promissory Note

• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors • Non-Benchmark tenors

50-yr Loan Bond

• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity • 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)

Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)

• Strong anti-inflationary signal • Deepen the Development of the Bond market • 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies

Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers

• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase • Offer throughout the year • Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches

Amortizing Bond

• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments  Promote the government’s fiscal discipline

Bond Switching & Consolidation

• Allow both issuer and investors to manage and improve their portfolio • Larger outstanding size + Less bond series  more liquidity in the secondary market

PDDF

Upgrade PD Privileges

(Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)

Baht Bond

CGIF

(Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

0

Benchmark Bond

Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.

(-34%) T-Bill (Outstanding)

Others

Treasury Balance = 542,144 THB Mil.

> 100,000 THB Mil in Size (45% of Trading Volume) (28% of Trading Volume)

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Outstanding size (THB Mil.)

FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Apr 12)

Top 5 3

TOP 5

Next 10

Bottom 30

45%

28%

27%

3

Next 10

0

50

100

(50,000-100,000) FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond

10

ILB 10 % %

5

FRB 50

1

9

30

3

7

A

A LB

A LB

15

LB A LB326A LB DA LB27DA

A LB

LB A LB616A

LB165A LB A

A

OA

LB

LB

A

NA

LB

LB

A

NA LB

7

LB A LB193A

DA

LB

A

LB

A

LB A LB416A

A

2

LB

A

5 13 19

LB

2

LB

A

7

LB

A

DA

LB

A

DA

LB

LB

5

LB

A LB

2

LB

A LB

4

A

A

1

DA

A

LB

7

LB

A

LB

4

LB

A

LB

9 16

LB A LB176A

A

NA

LB

10

LB

5

LB

10

ILB217A ILB A

B

6

OA

1

LB

7

LB21DA LB DA

A

LB

3

LB

B 2

A

LB

3

LB

LB155A LB A

TTM (Year)

LB DA LB15DA

20

LB

5

A

7

LB

30

300,000

Fixed P/N

Plan

Actual

177,770

149,110

-16%

Bank Loan (Outstanding)

400,000

Float P/N

45,000

190,514 54,014

1,075

-

40,000

ILB

+5%

200,000

100,000

0

-44%

Benchmark Bond

Non Benchmark Bond

-4%

+6%

Savings Bond

+116%

T-Bill (Outstanding)

-13%

ILB

Float P/N

+96%

Fixed P/N

-92% 30,030

199,110

1,140,000 THB Mil to 750,000 THB Mil

T-Bill (Outstanding)

-23%

88,249

321,171

Total Funding needs decreased from:

Savings Bond

45,000

-51%

Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size

(>100,000)

THB Mil.

Non Benchmark Bond

THB Mil.

-45%

Savings Bond

TOP 5

(2,277,XXX THB Mil)

approx. -390,000

154,000

131,000

Non Benchmark Bond

FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 45 Series

390,000 THB Mil. Undrawn Decree (Water + Insurance)

82,233

(-20%)

60,000

100,000

800,000 THB Mil to 640,000 THB Mil

170,000

+118%

Benchmark Bond

FY2012

+8%

261,171

200,000

Total Funding needs decreased from:

Actual

281,000

309,826

310,000

300,000

95,000

400,000

Plan

0%

Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery

0

Treasury Balance = 510,180 THB Mil.

THB Mil.

FY2010

approx. -160,000 THB Mil.

Others

-72%

+344%

125,122

T-Bill (Outstanding)

-38%

120,231

400,000

Savings Bond

105,782

Treasury Balance = 278,694 THB Mil.

Non Benchmark Bond

110,850

Benchmark Bond

-26%

100,000

(- 36%)

59%)

(+

Actual

345,751

+33%

420,000 THB Mil. to 670,000 THB Mil.

100,000

70,000

Total Funding needs decreased from: 700,000 THB Mil to 400,000 THB Mil

+86%

330,000

Total Funding needs increased from:

9,000

200,000

52,180

THB Mil.

approx.+250,000 THB Mil.

60,000

approx. -250,000

300,000

204,000

Higher than expected Revenue collection

+170%

125,691

+2%

Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package

Plan

-3%

34,600

FY2011

THB Mil.

30,000

FY2009

400,000

Actual

64,659

+40% Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

THB Mil.

349,500

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty

339,900

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Bank Loan (Outstanding)

• •

• •

ATM %

%

,

,

%

%

% %

% %

6

%

250,000

…

…

5

%

5

%

5

%

%

%

200,000

4

4

%

150,000

%

3

3

3

%

%

%

4

%

3

%

100,000

77%

64% 50,000

42%

33%

1

-

2

3

4

5

2554F

• •

2553

1

34

44

80,000

(60 วงเงินซอ

100%

) านวนบัญชี

บงตา อายุเ า้ องบ ัญชี

บงตา อายุเ ้า องบัญชี

12,000

40,000

วงเงิน าหนายทังห ด =

40%

50%

36%

บ

34

32,000

40%

44%

9,000

30%

60% 30%

47

40,000

%

บ

,

80%

บ

,

60,000

%

24,000

47%

30%

6,000

40%

34%

19

20,000

20%

19%

21% 16,000

15%

14%

20%

18%

% 3,000

20%

10%

12%

7%

10%

8% 0%

2%

2%

1%

8,000

2%

1%

1%

1%

10%

1%

-

2%

0%

-

10,000 50,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2%

3%

-

-

2%

120,000

2%

0

1% -

0% -

0% -

านวนบ ัญชี

100%

-

-

-

-

3%

2%

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

วงเงินซอ

บงตา อายุเ า้ องบ ัญชี

50,000

40%

บงตา อายุเ ้า องบัญชี

12,000

40% 36%

านวนบัญชีทงห ั ด=

100,000

บัญชี

บ ัญชี

, 80%

41% 9,000 37,500

80,000

30%

30%

บัญชี

,

34,745

60%

24

60,000

40,000

30

10

%

32 %

7%

5%

24%

4

3%

2%

1%

16,157

-

-

-

-

-

1% -

3,000

13,257 12,500

7%

0% -

-

10%

10%

2%

0% -

20%

19%

20%

20%

%

10,000 50,000

6,000

24,320

25,000

15%

%

10%

7%

25,676

40%

14%

20,000 8%

%

32%

-

2,863

3,316

-

-

2,481 0% -

-

-

-

-

-

2%

2%

0

1,065 -

3%

0% -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

1%

=

=

4%

* * *

%

135,736 104,000

PAR

100,000

PAR

36,000

100,000

10,464 1–9

10

1–9

10

Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Format Currency Tenor

Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection) Thai Baht 10 years

Programme Size Interest Payment

40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.)

Every 6 months

Index Indexation Lag Index Ratio

Headline CPI 3 months CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)

Real Yield Repayment Method

1.2 Bullet

Next Step Continuing Issuance

PD’s responsibility

8 International AWARDS

+ 2 Domestic AWARDS

Allocations Foreign Institutions

Local Institutions

15,000 MB

20,000 MB

5,000 MB

Subscription : approx. 1.6 times

Local Retail

Enhance ILB liquidity  

FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter) FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.)

(15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug) FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)



FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary market FY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary market FY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market  Best Sovereign Bond 2011  Best Thailand Deal 2011  Best Local Currency Bond 2011  Best Thailand Deal 2011  Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011  Deal of the Year from Asia  Outstanding Issuer of the Year  The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011  Deal of the Year 2011  Most Creative Issue 2011

Enhance Liquidity

: Asiamoney Awards : Asiamoney Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : IFRAsia Asia Awards : Euro Money : Asset Asian Awards 2011 : Euroweek Asia : ThaiBMA : ThaiBMA

Funding Instruments : Local Bond Market VS Foreign Bond Markets Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Well Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs

FYFull2012 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB Mil Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.

Potential Demand for Gov’t Bond 2012

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

LB 3 yr

150,000 THB Mil.

LB 5 yr

120,000 THB Mil.

LB 7 yr

80,000 THB Mil.

LB 10 yr

80,000 THB Mil.

LB 15 yr

60,000 THB Mil.

LB 20 yr

60,000 THB Mil.

LB 30 yr

30,000 THB Mil.

LB 50 yr

20,000 THB Mil.

Benchmark Bond

CB 6% 50

SB

20 15

10

7 5

Benchmark Bond

~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

Savings Bond

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Promissory Note

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

3

Household and Non-profit

15% Depository Corporation

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Floating Rate Bond

~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

Bank Loan

Total

35%

1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)

400

Depository Corporations

400

- Retail - Non-profit org.

200

Non-Residence

?

Bank loan FRB / LB

Source : CB (30 January 2012)

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments

Outstanding of Foreign Debt Equiv. 41,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt) Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil

33%

- Life Insurance - Pension Funds

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Inflation-Linked Bond

Commercial Papers Samurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen Mil Samurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen Mil MTN 40 USD Mil

Insurance and Other Corporation

NR 12%

30

THB Bil.

P/N LB

LB 5/10 ILB

• To diversify portfolio of government debt • To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market • To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers

Equiv. 28,000 THB Mil Soft Loans JBIC IBRD Other

64,800 Yen Mil 66 USD Mil 19 USD Mil

• To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market

(as of Oct 2011)

Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Trillion.) Profile Dramatically

ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

As of Dec 2007

As of Dec 2011 ATM

Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 2 yrs

7yrs 5mths ATM

5yrs 3mths Avg. cost

Avg. Cost LOWERED by 10 bps

4.5%

.

Avg. cost

4.4%

(While ATM Lengthened by 2 yrs)

Float

Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)

10%

Float

Fixed

Fixed

90%

82%

Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009

61%

Well-Distributed Maturity Profile next 5 yrs

Maturity Profile as of Dec 2011

52% 24%

(Target : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs ≤ 50% of Total Debt)

18%

year 6 - 10

20%

15% 10 yrs +

next 5 yrs

year 6 - 10

28%

10 yrs +

Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Issuers

• 80 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned Enterprises

Credit Rating

• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade by local rating agencies

Investors

• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types

Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)

Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)

Government Bonds (Classified by Types of Investors)

BBB Non-rated

2% 2%

A

Private Sector

20% SOEs

CB 10%

7%

AA

NR 9%

5% AAA

Government

36%

6%

4%

Government

SOEs

36%

6

%

Household and Non-profit

Insurance and Other Corporation

Central Bank

Central Bank

Depository Corporation

38%

38% Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)

32%

9% 40%

Source : CB (30 April 2012)

Source : ThaiBMA (12 April 2012)

Annual Funding Needs Will Always Be around 500,000 THB Mil. Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Water Decree

TENTATIVE THB Mil.

1,000,000

Deficit Deficit Restructuring FIDF Restructuring TKK TKK Restructuring Water Management Decree Insurance Decree

June

350,000

06/13 50,000

Insurance Decree

80,000 98,161

TKK

340,122

260,000

500,000 67,740

FIDF FIDF

25,000 56,582

441,061

222,003

58,940

94,170

129,124

58,940

75,171

139,171

113,014

25,000

52,000

232,575

165,000

64,970

199,239 219,222

400,000 300,000

200,666

200,000 100,000

-

Annual Funding Needs (THB Mil.)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013 F

2014 F

2015 F

246,582

686,962

656,746

424,620

1,140,122*

536,973

622,533

453,333

*Not Including Pre-Mature Debt Restructuring of 167,000 THB Mil. (TKK = 149,000 THB Mil. & FIDF = 18,000 THB Mil.)

As of May 2012

Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

-

:

2,500

50%

2,070 1,952

2,000

1,700

1,660 1,566

! Last Resort

1,495

1,500

40%

1,650

1,511

30%

1,420

1,360 1,360

1,164

1,000 843 843

984 984 923 923

715 715

1,023 1,000 825 800

860 750

1,350

1,250 1,250

1,064

%

910 805

823

20%

825

%

% %

500

10%

คาเฉ ย ี่ GDP Growth คาเฉ ย ี่ ร้อย ะงบ าดดุ ตองบประ าณราย าย

Fiscal Stimulus averaged 7% TKK 2012 : 1,296 Billion of GDP (FY2009 - FY2011) additional public borrowing Budget Deficit % to GDP (RHS)

Baht (2008-2012) others 107 Public Health 8% 108 8% Community Investment 141 11%

Billion Baht

Education 144 Energy 11%

157 12%

Logistic 370 29%

Agriculture 269 21%

20%

TKK Source : Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance

= 34

2554

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

2540

2539

0% 2538

0

ปี งป . 2541 - 2546 ปี งป . 2547 - 2551 ปี งป . 2552 - 2554 2.2% 4.6% 1.9% 10.7% 5.6% 21.2%

Huge stimulus package resulted

in 10-year high GDP growth despite political turbulence Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment 18%

3,000,000

17%

Nominal GDP % growth (Q-on-Q) and GDP current price (million baht)

Rajprasong Incident

14%

13% 12%

12%

11%

11% 9% 8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

2,000,000

9%

9%

US financial Crisis

6%

1,000,000

Military Coup

0%

0

-2% -3%

million baht Q2

2010-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2009-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2008-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2007-Q1

-1,000,000 Q4

Q3

Q2

% change (Q-on-Q) 2006-Q1

-6%

-3%

-4%

Songkran Incident

3

:

.

:

â&#x20AC;&#x201C;

,

World

Thailand

How many Thailand?

:

Source : TIME, October 6, 2008

Major Central Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Policy Rate CUTS within 3 days NZ 7.50% CHI 6.93% AU 6.00% BOE 4.50% ECB 3.75% RP 3.75%

?

FED 1.50%

BOJ 0.5%

The FED led a coordinated round of global official rate cuts on easing by a half-point, as did the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss, Canadian and Swedish banks because of growing evidence of weaker economic activity and reduced inflationary pressure.

Source : compiled by KTC

IMF foresees that Thailand will enjoy

Hugh stimulus pays off

strongest rebound among ASEANâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;5

(excl China & India)

Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment

15

% change (Y-on-Y)

Real GDP (year on year percentage change) China

10

India

7.8%

4%

5

0

0.1% -2.3%

-5 2008 China

2009

India

Hong kong

2010F

Korea

Indonesia

2011F

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

Thailand

Source : World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2010

What will likely be the cause of the next crisis?

15

Sufficiency Economy Philosophy /

Financial Liberalization

/

/

Financial liberalization

10

/

Economy / Social / Environment / Culture Balance / Ability to cope

Japanese Wave

Tsunami

Middle path

GDP Growth rate

5

Moderation

0 Bubble tech Asian Fin. crisis

Persian Gulf War

Fin. Crisis (Lehman bros.)

Reasonableness Self - immunity

2nd Oil Crisis

-5

Knowledge condition expert, carefully, Carefulness

-10

Tom Yum Kung Crisis Thailand

United States

WORLD

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

-15 Year

Moderation

Source : Dr. Sumet Tantivejkul Member Secretary General Chaipattana Foundation EBA October 2006

Moral/Ethical condition Honesty, integrity, Generosity, Harmlessness

Bond Market Development Bureau Tel. Government Bond Market Development Division

FAX

E-mail Pimpen Ladpli Pothirat Kijsriopak Ittipong Kanluan Raveewan Buanung Anong Chaithong

pimpen@pdmo.go.th pothirat@pdmo.go.th ittipong@pdmo.go.th raveewan@pdmo.go.th anong@pdmo.go.th

02-271-7999 02-357-3576

Extension 5802 5812 5806 5801 5817

Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division E-mail Nattakarn Boonsri Onpreeya Chungpanich Puttipong Kanna Taninrat Wongsuppapat Wantanee Po-ngam Wilawan Prachasin

nattakarn@pdmo.go.th onpreeya@pdmo.go.th puttipong@pdmo.go.th taninrat@pdmo.go.th wanthanee@pdmo.go.th wilawan@pdmo.go.th

Extension 5803 5805 5808 5811 5814 5816

International Bond Market Policy Division E-mail Chatmanee Sinsiri Busabong Tantamaneerat Veeraya Julamont Laksika Tengpratip Thatree Intharasut Sindruthai Pulsirivong

chatmanee@pdmo.go.th busabong@pdmo.go.th veeraya@pdmo.go.th laksika@pdmo.go.th thatree@pdmo.go.th sindruthai@pdmo.go.th

Extension 5804 5818 5807 5813 5815 5819