วิสัยทัศน์หนี้สาธารณะไทย

: E – BOOK

Email : juk@mof.go.th

2

2555

13.00 – 14.30

: ป็

ื

ใ

ื

: ป ใ ื

ฒ ป

ื

แ

(Pro-active Debt Management)

2. ฒ 3 ฒ

ป

: แ ป

Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort

ใ

ใ ป็ แ ็แ ป

ฎ

ื

แ ็แ

แ

แ

ฯ

Career @ PDMO 1

by AGE

PDMO is driven by young generation with wits & will

22

40%

60

23

24

25

26

27

28

HiPPS

50

40

ป 30

ื

ใ

20

10

HiPPS

0 AGE range

23-25 26-30

31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 Total = 223

130

2553 บริหารสูง (10)

1

ทรงคุณวุฒ ิ (10)

1

บริหารต้น (9)

1/10 1/10

133 235

1/57 1/53 1/35

1,200 2,000 3,600

1/100 1/100

4,700 18,500

1

1

อานวยการสูง (9 บส)

1

2

3

4

่ วชาญ (9 ชช) เชีย

1

2

3

4

อานวยการต้น (8 บก)

1

2

ชานาญการพิเศษ (8ว)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

ชานาญการ (6-7)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

ปฏิบ ัติการ (3-5)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

+1

2553

2553

5

+10

1 10 40

41

42

43

44

40

41

42

43

44

45

:

46

47

48

49

50

2

PDMO CFO ป “

”

3

หนีส้ าธารณะ (พ.ค. 55) หนีท้ รี่ ัฐบาลกูโ้ ดยตรง หนีท้ รี่ ัฐกูเ้ พือ่ ชดเชยความเสียหายให้แก่กองทุนเพือ่ การฟืน้ ฟูฯ หนีเ้ งินกูล้ ว่ งหน้าเพือ่ ปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ (Prefunding) หนีร้ ัฐวิสาหกิจทีไ่ ม่เป็นสถาบันการเงิน หนีร้ ัฐวิสาหกิจทีเ่ ป็นสถาบันการเงิน (รัฐบาลค้า้ ประกัน) หนีห้ น่วยงานอืน่ ของรัฐ รวม

รวม 2,215,727.68 1,133,973.76 80,450.00 1,033,898.03 195,230.07 8,820.00 4,668,099.54

9% 4.18 %

2.15 % 49.19 % (

FIDF) 24.29 %

Public debt/GDP continues to decline as annual GDP growth outpaces the debt growth

March

Direct Government Debt

FIDF

+ FIDF

Financial SOEs Debt (Guaranteed)

FIDF Debt

Non-Financial SOEs Debt Other Government Agencies Debt

% of GDP

GDP as of August 2011 is 10,613.43 million THB using weighted average NESDB Figures of 2010 GDP = and 2011 GDP = 10,867.73 i.e. (10104.82 x 4/12) + 10867.73 x 8/12)

4

0% 8%

14% 14% 12%

18% 11%

108. Hong Kong

18% 9%

107. China

8%

18% 18% 18% 17%

16%

ฒ

15%

8. Greece

15%

ฒ

ป

19%

ป

60%

19%

31. India

19%

ฒ

19%

ป

19%

ฒ

18%

24% 24%

24% 20%

30%

29% 28% 27% 26%

26%

28% 20%

31%

31%

30% 31%

89. Indonesia

42% 31%

56. Thailand

30%

69%

30%

22. England

ป

20%

33% 33%

32% 32% 32% 32%

108%

25%

36% 35% 35% 35% 34% 34%

41% 40% 39% 38%

38%

2012

33%

44% 44% 44% 43% 43%

48%

38%

47%

47% 47% 46% 46% 46%

53%

45%

42. America

42%

50%

49% 49% 49%

48% 48%

54% 54% 53% 52% 52%

59%

50%

59% 58% 58%

192%

58%

2. Japan

55%

192%

304%

304%

55%

64%

62% 61% 60% 60% 59%

72% 70% 69% 68%

185%

1. Zimbabwe

54%

50% 67%

77%

67%

108%

156%

18. Germany

64%

80% 80%

78%

78%

99%

% 105%

10 95%

150%

77%

87%

132%

200%

75%

83%

118%

% to GDP

115%

304%

Zimbabwe Japan Saint Kitts and Nevis Lebanon Jamica Singapore Italy Greece Sudan Belgium Iceland Nicaragua Sri Lanka Egypt France Hungary Israel Germany Portugal Canada Jordan United Kingdom Ghana Malta Austria Cote d'Ivorie Ireland Netherlands Croatia Norway India Phillippines Uruguay Mauritius Malawi Bhutan El Salvador Albania Kenya Morocco World United States Cyprus Vietnam Spain Panama Costa Rica Argentina Turkey Malaysia Poland United Arab Emirates Tunisia Brazil Aruba Columbia Thailand Pakinstan Bolivia Seychelles Switzerland Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina Dominican Republic Finland Yemen Denmark Bangladesh Montenegro Mexico South Africa Cuba Gabon Slovakia Pupua New Guinea Taiwan Czech Republic Guatamala Latvia Macedonia Syria Ethiopia Zambia Slovenia Lithunia Serbia Moldova Bahrain Ukraine Indonesia New Zealand Korea, South Trinidad and Tobago Mozambique Peru Tanzania Honduras Paraguay Senegal Saudi Arabia Ecudor Romania Iran Venezuela Uganda Namibia Australia China Hong Kong Botswana Nigeria Angola Gibraltar Bulgaria Luxembourg Cameroon Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Algeria Chile Kuwait Estonia

Public Debt to GDP (by country) WORLD 54%

6. Singapore

118%

2009 est.

ป

32. Philippines

50. Malaysia 91. South Korea

Source : CIA – The World Fact Book

Development of Government Debt Securities Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

50-year Benchmark Bond March 2nd 2011

12-year and 18-year

30-year

FY 2008

Fixed-rate Promissory Bond

Benchmark Bond April 23nd 2008

December 22nd 2010

10-year Inflation Linked Bond July 11th 2011

5-year Step-up Savings Bond

2009

6-year Step-up Savings Bond

July 15th 2009

June 7th 2010

4-year Floating Rate Bond July 27th 2009

3-year Retail Bond @ ATM September 12th 2011

2010 2011 2012-2013

5

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt (1.87 THB Trillion.) Profile Dramatically

ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

As of Dec 2007

What do we do @ PDMO? PDMO manages the Nation’s Portfolio… 4,248,399,540,000baht (42% of GDP) May 2011

As of Dec 2011

CFO ป

ATM

Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 2 yrs

7yrs 5mths ATM

5yrs 3mths

Research & Policy Planning Avg. cost

Avg. Cost LOWERED by 10 bps

4.5%

.

Avg. cost

Float

(Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 80 : 20)

10%

Float

Fixed

Fixed

90%

82%

Maturity Profile as of Dec 2009

18%

Debt management (SOEs)

24%

(Target : Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs ≤ 50% of Total Debt)

ใ (Pro-active Debt Management)

แ ็แ

1 ็

1.1

1.2

1.3

ปป แ

1.1.1

1.2.1 /GDP

1.3.1

1.2.2

1.3.2 /

ป

1.4.1 ใ

ป

next 5 yrs

็ ป

2.2

ื

2.1.1

2.2.1 Benchmark Bond

2.2.2 Floating Rate Bond

3.1

2.3

3.2

2.3.1

ื

ื

แ

3.1.1

3.2.1

ฒ IT

ใ

Legal

Audit

แ ็

PMQA

3.4

3.3

ป็

ป ื

ใ

HR

3

ฒ

ฒ

personnel

10 yrs +

็ ฒ แ ป

ใ ป็ ื

Benchmark แ

year 6 - 10

ป ป 2554-2556

ใ

แ ใ

10 yrs +

2 ็

2.1

1.4

แ

Debt Prepayment Allocation

28%

20%

15%

year 6 - 10

(แ

ป ฒ ป

ป

Settlement & forex

Benchmark bond / Asia Bond / Sovereign Fund Management

IT

ป

Financial market monitoring & execution

52%

Well-Distributed Maturity Profile

แ

Debt management (Gov’t)

Credit scoring / Yankee Bond / Samurai Bond

Bond market development

Maturity Profile as of Dec 2011

61%

next 5 yrs

Financing & monitoring MEGA projects

4.4%

(While ATM Lengthened by 2 yrs)

Well-Balanced Fixed/Float Ratio

Project Finance

Risk modeling / credit rating / loan negotiation

ื

3.3.1

3.4.1

ฒ แ

ฒ

3.2.2

แ

ฎ

ฒ

1.2.3

แ

แ แ

1.2.4

8

แ

4

5 :

ฒ

6

Career @ PDMO

3 ! Last Resort

ฒ

7

Capital Market Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

3 3 Pillars of Financial Market System Capital market

Loan Market

Equity Market

Debt Market

Market maker

Commercial banks

Corporate/SOE

Market participants

Borrowers/Savers

Investors1

Products

Loans/Deposits/LC

Stock

Loan Bond/Saving Bond/ T-bill/ Promissory Note

Returns

Interest rates

Dividend/Capital Gain

Coupons

1 - Yearly cumulative since 1 Jan 2012 – 17 Aug 2012 2 - As of July 2012

Retail 53% Domestic Institution 22% Foreign Institution 25%

Corporate/MOF/BOT/SOE Investors2

Retail 9% Domestic Institution 81% Foreign Institution 10%

8

1997 Asian Financial Crisis

The Rude Awakening Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

% Share of GDP

140% 128%

120%

Balanced

100%

90

%

80%

84 71

%

%

60%

8.2 THB Trillion 10 August 2012

40% 24% Asian Fin. Crisis

12%

0% Bank Loan /GDP

Equity/GDP

Bond Market / GDP

2012 (Jun)

20%

9

Thai Bond Market Has Grown Strongly for More Than a Decade Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

% Share of GDP

Domestic Bond Market Capitalisation = 8.2 THB Trillion As of 10 Aug 2012 (Classified by Types of Issuers)

140%

128% 120% 100%

Baht Bond

1%

Corp. Bond

18%

SOE Bond

7%

90%

80%

84%

71%

60%

8.2 THB Trillion 40%

10 August 2012

24%

Asian Fin. Crisis

20%

12%

Bank Loan /GDP

Equity/GDP

2012 (Jun)

0% Bond Market / GDP

BOT Bond 35%

Maturity Profile

2.9 THB Trillion

BOT vs GOVT Bond BOT ATM = 1yr GOVT ATM = 6yrs 10mths 14%

GOVT Bond

22%

62% BOT < 1y

33% 2-3y

17% 5% 3-5y

MOF 26%

21%

6-10y

11-50y

39% 3.2 THB Trillion 10

Bond Market Developed Rapidlyand andEfficiently Efficiently The The ThaiThai Bond Market hasHas Developed Rapidly Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

10

8

Post Crisis – 2000 :

2007 – 2010 :

 Bond Market Capitalisation tripled  Government Bonds Outstanding grew by 50 times  Government Bond Market Share jumped from 3% in 1997 to 44% in 2000

 Regular Benchmark Issuance  New Product Development  Regular Market Dialogue with BoT and PDs

Volume Oriented

Development Oriented

Next Step 2011-13:

100%

(Market Deepening Oriented)  50-yr Bond, ILB, Electronic Retail Bond  Upgrade PD Privileges  Regional Linkage (CGIF)  Amortizing Promissory Note  Bond Switching and Bond Consolidation

71% 60%

% of GDP

THB Trillion

6

4

80%

Pre-Crisis - Illiquid Bond Market - Absence of Benchmark Bond - Dominated by SoE’s Bonds

40%

20%

0

0%

2012 (Aug)

2

11

FY2007 – FY2013

Innovation of GOV’T Debt Securities

FY 2012-2013

FY 2011

FY 2007-10

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

30-yr Loan Bond

• Lengthen average-time-to-maturity ATM Government Debt Portfolio  5.7yrs to 6.1yrs • Meet long term investors’ demand

Floating Rate Bond

• Increase floating debt ratio (10% to 18%) • Promote BIBOR (Bangkok Interbank Offered Rate)

Step-up Savings Bond

• Broaden investor base – Retail investors • Low interest burden at the initial periods of bond

Fixed Rate Promissory Note

• Broaden investor base – Insurance / Long-term investors • Non-Benchmark tenors

50-yr Loan Bond

• Combat low interest rate + Lengthen average time-to-maturity • 4th country in the world (1st : UK 2nd : France 3rd : China)

Inflation-Linked Bond (ILB)

• • •

Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers

• Lower Minimum Amount to Purchase • Offer throughout the year • Can be purchased via ATM, in addition of Bank Retail Branches

Amortizing Bond

• Suitable financing instrument for the government’s investment mega-project in the form of PPP • Pay back the bond principal by installments  Promote the government’s fiscal discipline

Bond Switching & Consolidation

Strong anti-inflationary signal Deepen the Development of the Bond market 1st country in Emerging Asian Economies

• Allow both issuer and investors to manage and improve their portfolio • Larger outstanding size + Less bond series  more liquidity in the secondary market

PDDF

Upgrade PD Privileges

(Public Debt Restructuring and Domestic Bond Market Development Fund)

Baht Bond

CGIF

(Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)

12

Full Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments

1,150,000 THB Mil. ($40 bil)

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

LB 3 yr

150,000 THB Mil. ($5 bil.)

LB 5 yr

120,000 THB Mil. ($4 bil.)

LB 7 yr

80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)

LB 10 yr

80,000 THB Mil. ($3 bil.)

LB 15 yr

60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.)

LB 20 yr LB 30 yr

60,000 THB Mil. ($2 bil.)

30,000 THB Mil. ($1 bil.)

LB 50 yr

20,000 THB Mil. ($0.8 bil.)

Benchmark Bond 10 7 5

3

50 30 20

15 ($20 bil.)

Benchmark Bond

~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

($3 bil.)

Savings Bond

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

($3 bil.)

Promissory Note

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

($1.5 bil.)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($1.5 bil.)

Inflation-Linked Bond

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($1.2 bil.)

Floating Rate Bond

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

($7 bil.)

Bank Loan

($40 bil.)

Total

~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%) 13

2550 ป Strategy ป of Benchmark ใ ใ in 3 ways แ (FY2007-FY2013) 3แ PDMO Revised the Bond Issuance ,

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

from

I. Reduce Auction Frequency

Once a Week to Every Other Month

(to Create Even Distribution of the Benchmark Bond Supply over the Year)

II. Increase Auction Size

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 15,00020,000

Unit : THB Mil

4,000 FY

FY

FY

III. Increase Outstanding Size

12,00015,000

10,00012,000

8,00010,000

6,0008,000

FY

FY

FY

FY

F

Tenors: 3-5-7-10 yrs 150,000200,000

Unit : THB Mil

F

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Bond Market Development Bureau, Public Debt Management Office

Treasury Balance = 417,166 THB Mil.

0

Benchmark Bond

Non Benchmark Bond

THB Mil.

-51%

Total Funding needs decreased from: 1,140,000 THB Mil to 750,000 THB Mil

Savings Bond

(-34%) T-Bill (Outstanding)

Others

Treasury Balance = 542,144 THB Mil.

-

ILB

Float P/N

300,000

Fixed P/N

Plan

+5%

Actual

177,770

-23%

-16% 149,110

95,000

1,075

T-Bill (Outstanding)

-72%

+344%

Bank Loan (Outstanding)

200,000

100,000

0

-44%

Benchmark Bond

Non Benchmark Bond

-4%

+6%

Savings Bond

+116%

T-Bill (Outstanding)

-13%

ILB

Float P/N

+96%

Fixed P/N

-92% 30,030

approx. -390,000

Savings Bond

105,782

390,000 THB Mil. Undrawn Decree (Water + Insurance)

Non Benchmark Bond

-38%

THB Mil.

FY2012

-45% 154,000

170,000

100,000

+8%

Benchmark Bond

Treasury Balance = 510,180 THB Mil.

199,110

281,000

309,826

+118%

Actual

82,233

(-20%)

200,000

131,000

800,000 THB Mil to 640,000 THB Mil

0

400,000

Plan

60,000

Total Funding needs decreased from:

310,000

300,000

Others

THB Mil.

0%

Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery approx. -160,000 THB Mil.

T-Bill (Outstanding)

321,171

400,000

FY2010

Savings Bond

261,171

Treasury Balance = 278,694 THB Mil.

Non Benchmark Bond

110,850

Benchmark Bond

-26%

100,000

(- 36%)

59%)

(+

100,000

70,000

420,000 THB Mil. to 670,000 THB Mil.

Total Funding needs decreased from: 700,000 THB Mil to 400,000 THB Mil

345,751

+86%

+33%

330,000

Total Funding needs increased from:

400,000

200,000

88,249

THB Mil.

approx.+250,000 THB Mil.

45,000

approx. -250,000

Actual

190,514

+170%

300,000

54,014

Higher than expected Revenue collection

125,122

+2%

Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package

Plan

-3%

45,000

FY2011

THB Mil.

120,231

FY2009

400,000

Actual

40,000

+40% Plan

34,600

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

THB Mil.

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty

9,000

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty

52,180

FY

60,000

FY

204,000

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

FY

125,691

FY

30,000

FY

120,000150,000

64,659

FY

100,000120,000

349,500

80,000100,000

50,00080,000

FY

100,000120,000

339,900

40,000

15,00020,000

Bank Loan (Outstanding)

14

FY2012 Total GOVT Bond = 45 Series

TOP 5

(2,277,XXX THB Mil)

> 100,000 THB Mil in Size (45% of Trading Volume)

Next 10 > 50,000 THB Mil in Size

(28% of Trading Volume)

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Outstanding size (THB Mil.)

FY-to-date Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market (Oct 11-Apr 12)

Top 5 (>100,000)

3 3

Next 10

TOP 5

Next 10

Bottom 30

45%

28%

27%

0

50

100

(50,000-100,000) FY 2012 on-the-run Benchmark Bond

10

ILB 10

5

FRB 50

A

A LB

15

LB A LB326A LB DA LB27DA

A LB

A LB

LB A LB616A

OA LB

LB165A LB A

A

NA

LB

LB

A LB

LB A LB193A

NA LB

A LB

A

A LB

DA

A LB

LB

A LB

LB

A LB

LB A LB416A

A

DA

LB

A

DA

LB

LB

LB

A LB

A

A LB

DA

A LB 4

LB

A LB 1

LB

A LB 7

LB A LB176A

A

4

A

9 16

LB

NA

10

LB

5

LB

10

OA

6

LB

1

ILB217A ILB A

B LB

7

LB21DA LB DA

A

3

LB

2

A

3

LB

LB

B

LB155A LB A

TTM (Year)

LB DA LB15DA

20

LB

5

A

7

LB

30

15

2555

ใ ป ป

2555

6ป

80,000 3 % 3–

14

2555 (2

(

ื

ื

3 – .5 – .8 –

4 7 14

27 55 55 55

2555

(60 ป )

2 2

(1

)

1,000 1,100 1,050 1,000 850 4,000

ป

(2,000 (2,000

) ) ) )

ATM 8,600 8,500 7,500 7,000 31,600

16

1%

=

=

4%

*

* *

%

135,736 104,000

PAR

100,000

PAR

36,000

100,000

10,464 ป 1–9

ป 10

ป 1–9

ป 10

Structure of Thai Inflation Linked Bond (Inaugural ILB, July 2011) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Format Currency Tenor

Capital Indexed Bond (with Principle Protection) Thai Baht 10 years

Programme Size Interest Payment

40,000 THB Mil. (1.3 bil USD equiv.)

Every 6 months

Index Indexation Lag Index Ratio

Headline CPI 3 months CPIt /CPI0 (TBMA’s calculation)

Real Yield Repayment Method

1.2 Bullet

Next Step Continuing Issuance

PD’s responsibility

8 International AWARDS

+ 2 Domestic AWARDS

Allocations Foreign Institutions

Local Institutions

15,000 MB

20,000 MB

5,000 MB

Subscription : approx. 1.6 times

Local Retail

Enhance ILB liquidity  

FY 2012 : Develop regular annual auction plan (every quarter) FY 2012 : Top-up the existing tenor to enhance liquidity : 60,000 THB Mil. (2 USD Bil equiv.)

(15,000 THB Mil. each in Feb Apr Jun and Aug) FY 2013 : Issue other Benchmark tenors (5-15years ILBs)



FY 2012 : Maintain portion of successful bid in ILB primary market FY 2013 : Maintain portion of ILB trading in secondary market FY 2013 : Provide firm bid / ask spreads in secondary market  Best Sovereign Bond 2011  Best Thailand Deal 2011  Best Local Currency Bond 2011  Best Thailand Deal 2011  Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011  Deal of the Year from Asia  Outstanding Issuer of the Year  The Most Impressive Local Currency 2011  Deal of the Year 2011  Most Creative Issue 2011

Enhance Liquidity

: Asiamoney Awards : Asiamoney Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : FinanceAsia Achievement Awards : IFRAsia Asia Awards : Euro Money : Asset Asian Awards 2011 : Euroweek Asia : ThaiBMA : ThaiBMA

17

18

Funding Instruments : Local Bond Market VS Foreign Bond Markets Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Well Diversified Investors Ensures Funding Needs

FYFull2012 Full Capacity* : 1,150,000 THB Mil Capacity* of All Government Funding Instruments 1,150,000 THB Mil.

Potential Demand for Gov’t Bond 2012

Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

LB 3 yr

150,000 THB Mil.

LB 5 yr

120,000 THB Mil.

LB 7 yr

80,000 THB Mil.

LB 10 yr

80,000 THB Mil.

LB 15 yr

60,000 THB Mil.

LB 20 yr

60,000 THB Mil.

LB 30 yr

30,000 THB Mil.

LB 50 yr

20,000 THB Mil.

Benchmark Bond

CB 6% 50

SB

15

10

7 5 3

Benchmark Bond

~600,000 THB Mil. (52%)

Savings Bond

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Promissory Note

~100,000 THB Mil. (9%)

Fixed Rate Promissory Note ~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

35%

1,150,000 THB Mil. (100%)

400

Depository Corporations

400

- Retail - Non-profit org.

200

Outstanding of Foreign Debt Equiv. 41,000 THB Mil (1.4% of Gov’t Debt) Equiv. 28,000 THB Mil Soft Loans JBIC IBRD Other

Bank loan FRB / LB

Non-Residence

?

Source : CB (30 January 2012)

* Under favorable market liquidity + using All funding instruments

Equiv. 13,000 THB Mil

33%

15% Depository Corporation

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%) ~200,000 THB Mi (18%)

Bank Loan

Total

Household and Non-profit

THB Bil. - Life Insurance - Pension Funds

~50,000 THB Mil. (4%)

Inflation-Linked Bond Floating Rate Bond

Commercial Papers Samurai bond 5 yr 20,000 Yen Mil Samurai bond 7 yr 10,000 Yen Mil MTN 40 USD Mil

Insurance and Other Corporation

NR 12%

30 20

P/N LB

LB 5/10 ILB

64,800 Yen Mil 66 USD Mil 19 USD Mil (as of Oct 2011)

• To diversify portfolio of government debt • To keep the presence of KOT Bond (Kingdom of Thailand) in the foreign market

• To maintain KOT Bond as a reference benchmark yield for Thai private sector issuers • To avoid crowding out effect on domestic bond market Concerns : exchange rate risk / swap cost / natural hedging

Equilibrium of Thai Bond Market Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Issuers

• 81 percent of Thailand’s debt securities were issued by Government, Central bank and State-owned Enterprises

Credit Rating

• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade

Investors

• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types

Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)

Thailand Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)

Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)

BBB Non-rated

1% 2%

A AA

19

7

NR 10%

AAA

%

SOEs

CB 10%

7%

4%

Private Sector

Government

39%

%

Central Bank

35% Source : ThaiBMA (10 August 2012)

4%

Government

SOEs

39%

7

%

Central Bank

35% Source : ThaiBMA (10 August 2012)

Household and Non-profit

Insurance and Other Corporation

32%

9% Depository Corporation

39% Source : CB (30 June 2012)

19

Annual Funding Needs Will Always Be around 500,000 THB Mil. Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

Water Decree

TENTATIVE THB Mil.

1,000,000

Deficit Deficit Restructuring FIDF Restructuring TKK TKK Restructuring Water Management Decree Insurance Decree

June

350,000

06/13 50,000

Insurance Decree

80,000 98,161

TKK

340,122

260,000

500,000 67,740

FIDF FIDF

25,000 56,582

441,061

222,003

58,940

94,170

129,124

58,940

75,171

139,171

113,014

25,000

52,000

232,575

165,000

64,970

199,239 219,222

400,000 300,000

200,666

200,000 100,000

-

Annual Funding Needs (THB Mil.)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013 F

2014 F

2015 F

246,582

686,962

656,746

424,620

1,140,122*

536,973

622,533

453,333

*Not Including Pre-Mature Debt Restructuring of 167,000 THB Mil. (TKK = 149,000 THB Mil. & FIDF = 18,000 THB Mil.)

20 As of May 2012

Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort

! Last Resort ม

21

Huge stimulus package resulted

in 10-year high GDP growth despite political turbulence

Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

-

:

2,500

Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

50%

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect export and investment 2,070

18%

1,952

2,000

40%

1,700

1,660 1,566

1,500

13% 12%

12%

30%

1,420

1,360 1,360

1,000 843 843

715 715

1,023 1,000 825 800

860 750

9% 8%

1,064

%

910 805

823

8%

8%

9%

US financial Crisis

6%

%

%

2,000,000

9%

9%

8%

20%

825

11%

11%

1,350

1,250 1,250 1,164

984 984 923 923

Rajprasong Incident

14%

1,650

1,511

1,495

3,000,000

17%

Nominal GDP % growth (Q-on-Q) and GDP current price (million baht)

1,000,000

Military Coup

3%

500

10%

0% -2%

ื ื

:

.

–

-3%

-4%

Songkran Incident

% change (Q-on-Q)

million baht Q2

2010-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2009-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2008-Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

2007-Q1

-1,000,000 Q4

Q3

-6%

ปี งปม. 2541 - 2546 ปี งปม. 2547 - 2551 ปี งปม. 2552 - 2554 2.2% 4.6% 1.9% 10.7% 5.6% 21.2%

Q2

2554

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

-3%

ปป 2006-Q1

ค่าเฉลีย ่ GDP Growth ค่าเฉลีย ่ ร้อยละงบขาดดุลต่องบประมาณรายจ่าย

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

2540

2539

0% 2538

0

0

3

3

ฒ

ป

ื

ื

ื

:

ื

,

22

World

Thailand :

Major Central Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Policy Rate CUTS within 3 days NZ 7.50% CHI 6.93% AU 6.00% BOE 4.50% ECB 3.75% RP 3.75%

?

FED 1.50%

BOJ 0.5%

Source : compiled by KTC

23

0%

Source : CIA – The World Fact Book 108. Hong Kong

18% 18%

8%

14% 14% 12%

107. China

11%

ฒ

9%

8. Greece

8%

ป

18%

ฒ

18%

ป

60%

18%

31. India

17%

Vietnam

16%

5

15%

strongest rebound among ASEAN–5

15%

ฒ

19%

ป

19%

ฒ

19%

ป

19%

2010F

19%

0

18%

24% 24%

24%

28%

20%

30%

29% 28% 27% 26%

26%

69%

20%

31%

30%

31%

89. Indonesia

31%

31%

22. England

30%

108%

30%

Philippines

20%

33% 33%

2012

32%

42%

32%

56. Thailand

32%

Malaysia

32%

7.8%

25%

36% 35% 35% 35% 34%

2009

34%

41% 40% 39% 38%

38%

10

33%

44% 44% 44% 43%

48%

43%

Indonesia

38%

47%

47% 47% 46% 46%

53%

46%

42. America

45%

Korea

42%

50%

49% 49% 49%

48%

-5

48%

54% 54% 53%

59%

52%

Hong kong

52%

2008

50%

59% 58%

192%

58%

2. Japan

58%

304%

55%

1. Zimbabwe

55%

64%

62% 61% 60% 60% 59%

72% 70% 69%

304%

% change (Y-on-Y)

54%

50% 68%

77%

67%

18. Germany

67%

192%

India

64%

80% 80%

78%

108%

150%

78%

% 105%

10 99%

185%

200%

95%

156%

304%

77%

87%

132%

China

75%

83%

118%

% to GDP

115%

15

Zimbabwe Japan Saint Kitts and Nevis Lebanon Jamica Singapore Italy Greece Sudan Belgium Iceland Nicaragua Sri Lanka Egypt France Hungary Israel Germany Portugal Canada Jordan United Kingdom Ghana Malta Austria Cote d'Ivorie Ireland Netherlands Croatia Norway India Phillippines Uruguay Mauritius Malawi Bhutan El Salvador Albania Kenya Morocco World United States Cyprus Vietnam Spain Panama Costa Rica Argentina Turkey Malaysia Poland United Arab Emirates Tunisia Brazil Aruba Columbia Thailand Pakinstan Bolivia Seychelles Switzerland Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina Dominican Republic Finland Yemen Denmark Bangladesh Montenegro Mexico South Africa Cuba Gabon Slovakia Pupua New Guinea Taiwan Czech Republic Guatamala Latvia Macedonia Syria Ethiopia Zambia Slovenia Lithunia Serbia Moldova Bahrain Ukraine Indonesia New Zealand Korea, South Trinidad and Tobago Mozambique Peru Tanzania Honduras Paraguay Senegal Saudi Arabia Ecudor Romania Iran Venezuela Uganda Namibia Australia China Hong Kong Botswana Nigeria Angola Gibraltar Bulgaria Luxembourg Cameroon Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Algeria Chile Kuwait Estonia

Hugh stimulus pays off IMF foresees that Thailand will enjoy Bond Market Development Bureau, PDMO

(excl China & India)

NESDB (23 Aug 2010) doubled its 2010 GDP growth forecast from 4% to 7% due to higher-than-expect

export and investment

Real GDP (year on year percentage change) China India

4%

0.1%

-2.3% 2011F

Source : World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2010 Thailand

Public Debt to GDP (by country) Sufficiency Economy Philosophy

WORLD 54% /

6. Singapore

/ /

/

ป

32. Philippines

50. Malaysia

Source : Dr. Sumet Tantivejkul Member Secretary General Chaipattana Foundation EBA October 2006

Economy / Social / Environment / Culture

118%

Balance / Ability to cope

2009 est.

Middle path

Moderation

Moderation

91. South Korea

Reasonableness Self - immunity

Knowledge condition expert, carefully, Carefulness Moral/Ethical condition Honesty, integrity, Generosity, Harmlessness

24

Career @ PDMO ! Last Resort

ฒ

ใ

แ ็แ

ป

25

Achievements Inflation-Linked Bond:

1st

Research-Based Awards ใ

country in ASEAN

Asiamoney Award • Best Sovereign Bond 2011

15% : แ ป

ื

ื

ป

แ แป

Inflation Linked Bond : ILB)

ื

ใ

FIDF 2553

ป

FinanceAsia Achievement Awards • Best Local Currency Bond 2011 • Best Thailand Deal 2011

120,000

.

ป

(FIDF)

2559

2560

2561

2562

2563

2564

2565

2566

2567

2568

2569

2570

2571

2572

2573

2574

2575

2576

2577

2578

2579

2580

2581

2582

2583

2584

2565

2566

2567

2568

2569

2570

2571

2572

2573

2574

2575

2576

2577

2578

2579

2580

2581

2582

2583

2584

2558

2564

2557

2563

2556

2562

2555

2561

2554

2560

.

2584

23% ื

%

2554

2553 2542 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

2558

ป

2557

60,000

38%

Euro Money • Deal of the year from Asia

2554-58

2559

2553

2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 2553

2556

2542 2543 2542

2555

IFRAsia Asia Awards • Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011

Retail Bond - ATM:

ใ

52% 68% (FIDF)

2554-58

2584

1st time in Thailand

ฒ ป

แ

(LB)

แ

ื

ื

ใ

ปแ

ILB

, 15

5%

95%

Retail

Institutional = 1%

10

= 4%

*

= 1%

*

–

=

3

0.03%

= 34.3%

= = 1-5%

0.03%

3

แ

ป

5

0

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

3

150

PAR

PAR

PAR

100

100

100

50

5

แ

ป

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

PDMO Roadshow

ป 1010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ป 1010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ป 1010

ฒ

@ Universities

แ

7

2554

ป

4

11.00 – 13.00

PDD Fund

ป

w K-Asset, SCBAM n’ KTAM

แ ป ป ใ ป ป ใ ป

5

ใ

ป

ใ ป ใ ใ ื

ื

Best Sovereign Bond 2011 Best Local Currency Bond 2011 Best Thailand Deal 2011 Thailand Capital Markets Deal of the Year 2011 Deal of the year from Asia

Asiamoney Award FinanceAsia Achievement Awards FinanceAsia Achievement Awards IFRAsia Asia Awards Euro Money

4 3 ใ

ใ ป ใ

3

ื

2 1

33

ป

ป ใ

0

3

ใ

ใ

ใ

ป ป

3

ป

ใ ป ใ

ื

แ ใ

3 ใ

ใ ป

ื

แ ป

ป

แ

ป

Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers)

PDMO Roadshow & PDMO Camp 2011

Fact & Figures “ ื :

” ื

3 :

3.75 : 1,000 :

ื

ื (

: 1,000,000 )

:

:

: ATM 29

–9

26

ป

ื

ป

แ

ฒ

ใ ป

ป

ใ

ป

ป

ื

ื

ใ

:

ใ

ป

ื

ป

…

2553

ื

1. ป

ื GDP

2544

2545

2546

2547

2552

 65

 60

 55

 50

 60

 16

 16

 16

 15

 15

N/A

N/A

ใ

2.

N/A

 25

1.

ฎ

ฎ

50%

-

 25

2.

:

20% 10% 20%

ฎ

ื

(FIDF FIDF 3, TKK) (IMF, 1,FIDF3, TKK)

3.

61%

9,000,000

GDP

62%

61%

60%

57%

52%

51%

48%

49% 45%

43%

43%

44%

46%

48% 49%

49%

49%

48%

47%

40%

6,000,000

40%

37%

36%

1.

3,000,000

20%

0%

SCBAM

ป

3.

2562

2561

2560

2559

2558

2557

2556

2555

2554

2553

2552

2551

แ 2550

2549

2548

2547

GDP ( 2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

ื

KTAM

ป

ื

ใ

ป

แ

(LB)

แ

ปแ

ILB

, 15

5%

95%

Retail

Institutional = 1%

10

= 4%

*

=

= 1%

*

–

=

3

0.03%

= 34.3%

0.03%

= 1-5%

3

แ

ป

5

0

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

ป

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

3

150

100

ป

ื

3

PAR

PAR

PAR

100

100

100

50

แ

ฒ

2541

2540

ใ

K-Asset

2.

45%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ป 1010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ป 1010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ป 1010

27

ฒ

แ

3

ป

ป ป

แ ป

ป ใ

ป ใ แ ป ใ ป

ใ

PM 5

5

ใ

4 3

1/53 2/53

ใ

แ

2

50%

1

33 ื

0

ื

KPI

ใ

76

แ

PM

80% 70%

1 34

3

ใ

3 ป

ใ

ใ

ป ป

ป ป

2554

11.00 – 13.00

ป

ป ใ

3 19

4

ใ ป ใ

3

ื

65%

91

7

ใ ป ใ ใ ื

ื

2553

90%

85%

แ ใ KPI แ

ป ป

3 ใ

ใ ป ป

98%

็ ฒ ใ

88%

แ ใ

ใ ป ใ

ื

แ ป

ป

แ

ป

ป

PM: Performance Management

28

29

แ

-

-

-

็ แ แ -

-

Email Address : …………………………………………………………………………

1.

3.

-

-

………

-