Trading Plan in Wave Riders Style by Pragasit Thitaram

TRADING PLAN In Wave Riders Style http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Obstacles to Success 1.NO Goal

 Set GOAL

2.NO Plan

 Make Plan

3.NO How-to

 Gain Knowledge

4.NO Action

 Self-Discipline

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and Practice

Break down Goal to Milestone • Milestone แบ่ง Target

เป็ นสว่ นย่อย เป็ นรายปี ั ดาห์ รายเดือน รายสป • ทา Action Plan ั ดาห์ ทุกสป • ทา To-Do Lists ทุกวัน • ทบทวน Milestone ทุก 6 เดือน http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Goal

Target

Milestone

Timeline

Action Plan

To-Do Lists

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Risk in Trading • Market Risk  Economic ,World events • Lack of Methodology  Selection, Trade Setup • Lack of Discipline  Practice & Skill • Position Risk  Overtrade , Wrong sizing • Unrealized Expectation  Overview Market • Tempo Risk  Timing and Frequency • Psychological Risk  Mental & Emotional http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Asset Risk and Return

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Control the Risk • Learn about the Market • Make Trading Plan and Record Journal • Control Loss of Capital • Diversified Portfolio • Keep Calm and Mindfulness

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Elements of Trading Plan 1 Risk Control

2 Entry Rules

- Amount of Capital

- % Risk of Capital - %Risk per Trade - Control Losses

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- Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Trading Style Trend Follow? Swing? Day?

- Trade Setup - Position Sizing

3 Exit Strategic

- Stop Tools - How to Trailing Stop

- Profit Target - Combination of Indicators

Why 2% Loss ? Can be More ? • 2% of Loss Capital • Max. 5% of Loss Capital (Based on Trade Performance)

• 20% Max. Loss per Trade • No more 5 Losing Trades in

Consecutive • Reduce % of Loss Capital if Loss more than Limit http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

2% Loss of Capital • Control Loss not more than 2% of Capital

• Max. Loss = Capital x 2% • Capital = 1,000,000 Baht • Loss = 1,000,000 x 2% = 20,000 Baht

• Stop Loss = Buy Price – Stop Price • Position Size = Max. Loss / Stop Loss

ื้ หุ ้นหลายตัว ใชวิ้ ธแ • ซอ ี บ่ง Capital เป็ นหลายก ้อน

ง่ายในการคานวณมากกว่า http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

2% Loss of Capital Example • Buy Price = 12 , Stop Price = 11.5 • Stop Loss = 12 – 11.5 = 0.50 (4%) • Capital = 1,000,000 • Max. Loss = 1,000,000 x 2% = 20,000 • Position Size = 20,000 / 0.5 = 40,000 shares • Buy = 12 x 40,000 = 480,000 Baht http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Position Size in each Stop Loss

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Buying Price = 20 Stop Loss = 18.50 Target = 24.5 (100%) RR = 4.5/1.5 A = 3.0 0

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100% 61.8% 38.2%

Internal

Position Sizing  Cash Capital = 500,000 Baht  Limited Loss 2% = 10,000 Baht  Buying Price = 20 , Stop Loss = 18.50  Loss 20 – 18.5 = 1.50 baht (7.5%)  Position Size = 10,000/1.50 = 6,667 shares  1st Buy 20 x 6,500 = 130,000 Baht http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

1st Buying Price = 20 Stop Loss = 18.50

200%

Buying Price = 22.50 Stop Loss = 21 Target = 29 (161.8%) A RR = 6.5/1.5 = 4.33

161.8%

2nd

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138.2% 100% 61.8% 38.2%

Internal

Adding 2nd Buy • 1st Buy 130,000 Baht , Price above 1st Buy • Remain Capital = 370,000 Baht • Limited Loss = 10,000 Baht

• 2nd Buy = 22.50 , Stop Loss = 21 • Loss = 22.50 – 21 = 1.50 Baht (6.67%) • Position Size = 10,000/1.5 = 6,667 shares • 2nd Buy 22.5 x 6,500 = 146,250 Baht http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

1st Buying Price = 20 Stop Loss = 18.50

261.8% 17

2nd Buying Price = 22.50 Stop Loss = 21

3rd Buying Price = 29 Stop Loss = 26 Target = 35 (261.8%) RR = 6/3 = 2 0

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200% 161.8% 138.2% 100% 61.8% 38.2%

Internal

Adding 3rd Buy • • • •

1st Buy 130,000 Baht , 2nd Buy 146,250 Baht Total = 276,250 , Remain = 223,750 Baht Total Shares = 13,000 shares Average Price = 21.25 Baht

• • • •

3rd Buy = 29, Stop Loss = 26 Loss = 29 – 26 = 3.0 Baht (10.34%) Position Size = 10,000/3 = 3,333 Shares 3rd Buy 29 x 3,000 = 87,000 Baht

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1st Buying Price = 20 Stop Loss = 18.50

19261.8%

Exit EMA15 = 32

161.8%

2nd Buying Price = 22.50 Stop Loss = 21 3rd Buying Price = 29 Stop Loss = 26

138.2% 100% 61.8% 38.2%

B 0

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Internal

Rewards

Not Buy 3rd

Buy 3rd

Total Shares

13,000

16,000

Total Buy

276,250 (55.25%)

363,250 (72.65%)

Average Price

21.25

22.7031

32 – 21.25

32 – 22.7031

Exit @ 32

= 10.75 (50.59%)

= 9.2969 (40.95%)

10.75 x 13,000

9.2969 x 16,000

139,750 / 500,000

148,750 / 500,000

Profit % of Port

= 139,750

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= 27.95%

= 148,750 = 29.75%

Trading Records

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Trading Action Plan

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Trading Summary

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KPI to measure Trade performance  Winning Ratio  %Wins = # of Winning Trades / Total Trades

 Profit Factor  = Winning Amount / Losing Amount

 Payoff Ratio  = Average Winning / Average Losing

 Commission Ratio  = Total Commission / Gross Profit http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

6% Compounding Table Start Capital

6 Years Compounding Table Mth#

Capital

Profit

Profit/wk

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

1,000.00 1,060.00 1,123.60 1,191.02 1,262.48 1,338.23 1,418.52 1,503.63 1,593.85 1,689.48 1,790.85 1,898.30 2,012.20 2,132.93 2,260.90 2,396.56 2,540.35 2,692.77 2,854.34 3,025.60 3,207.14 3,399.56 3,603.54 3,819.75

60.00 63.60 67.42 71.46 75.75 80.29 85.11 90.22 95.63 101.37 107.45 113.90 120.73 127.98 135.65 143.79 152.42 161.57 171.26 181.54 192.43 203.97 216.21 229.18

15.00 15.90 16.85 17.87 18.94 20.07 21.28 22.55 23.91 25.34 26.86 28.47 30.18 31.99 33.91 35.95 38.11 40.39 42.82 45.38 48.11 50.99 54.05 57.30

Total Capital Mth# 1,060.00 1,123.60 1,191.02 1,262.48 1,338.23 1,418.52 1,503.63 1,593.85 1,689.48 1,790.85 1,898.30 2,012.20 2,132.93 2,260.90 2,396.56 2,540.35 2,692.77 2,854.34 3,025.60 3,207.14 3,399.56 3,603.54 3,819.75 4,048.93

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

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1,000,000

Capital

Profit

4,048.93 4,291.87 4,549.38 4,822.35 5,111.69 5,418.39 5,743.49 6,088.10 6,453.39 6,840.59 7,251.03 7,686.09 8,147.25 8,636.09 9,154.25 9,703.51 10,285.72 10,902.86 11,557.03 12,250.45 12,985.48 13,764.61 14,590.49 15,465.92

242.94 257.51 272.96 289.34 306.70 325.10 344.61 365.29 387.20 410.44 435.06 461.17 488.84 518.17 549.26 582.21 617.14 654.17 693.42 735.03 779.13 825.88 875.43 927.96

%profit per month

Profit/wk Total Capital Mth# 60.73 64.38 68.24 72.34 76.68 81.28 86.15 91.32 96.80 102.61 108.77 115.29 122.21 129.54 137.31 145.55 154.29 163.54 173.36 183.76 194.78 206.47 218.86 231.99

4,291.87 4,549.38 4,822.35 5,111.69 5,418.39 5,743.49 6,088.10 6,453.39 6,840.59 7,251.03 7,686.09 8,147.25 8,636.09 9,154.25 9,703.51 10,285.72 10,902.86 11,557.03 12,250.45 12,985.48 13,764.61 14,590.49 15,465.92 16,393.87

49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72

Unit

Capital

Profit

16,393.87 17,377.50 18,420.15 19,525.36 20,696.89 21,938.70 23,255.02 24,650.32 26,129.34 27,697.10 29,358.93 31,120.46 32,987.69 34,966.95 37,064.97 39,288.87 41,646.20 44,144.97 46,793.67 49,601.29 52,577.37 55,732.01 59,075.93 62,620.49

983.63 1,042.65 1,105.21 1,171.52 1,241.81 1,316.32 1,395.30 1,479.02 1,567.76 1,661.83 1,761.54 1,867.23 1,979.26 2,098.02 2,223.90 2,357.33 2,498.77 2,648.70 2,807.62 2,976.08 3,154.64 3,343.92 3,544.56 3,757.23

x 1000 Baht

Profit/wk Total Capital 245.91 260.66 276.30 292.88 310.45 329.08 348.83 369.75 391.94 415.46 440.38 466.81 494.82 524.50 555.97 589.33 624.69 662.17 701.91 744.02 788.66 835.98 886.14 939.31

17,377.50 18,420.15 19,525.36 20,696.89 21,938.70 23,255.02 24,650.32 26,129.34 27,697.10 29,358.93 31,120.46 32,987.69 34,966.95 37,064.97 39,288.87 41,646.20 44,144.97 46,793.67 49,601.29 52,577.37 55,732.01 59,075.93 62,620.49 66,377.72

4% Compounding Table Start Capital

6 Years Compounding Table Mth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Capital 1,000.00 1,040.00 1,081.60 1,124.86 1,169.86 1,216.65 1,265.32 1,315.93 1,368.57 1,423.31 1,480.24 1,539.45 1,601.03 1,665.07 1,731.68 1,800.94 1,872.98 1,947.90 2,025.82 2,106.85 2,191.12 2,278.77 2,369.92 2,464.72

Profit 40.00 41.60 43.26 44.99 46.79 48.67 50.61 52.64 54.74 56.93 59.21 61.58 64.04 66.60 69.27 72.04 74.92 77.92 81.03 84.27 87.64 91.15 94.80 98.59

Profit/wk 10.00 10.40 10.82 11.25 11.70 12.17 12.65 13.16 13.69 14.23 14.80 15.39 16.01 16.65 17.32 18.01 18.73 19.48 20.26 21.07 21.91 22.79 23.70 24.65

Total Capital 1,040.00 1,081.60 1,124.86 1,169.86 1,216.65 1,265.32 1,315.93 1,368.57 1,423.31 1,480.24 1,539.45 1,601.03 1,665.07 1,731.68 1,800.94 1,872.98 1,947.90 2,025.82 2,106.85 2,191.12 2,278.77 2,369.92 2,464.72 2,563.30

Mth 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

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Capital 2,563.30 2,665.84 2,772.47 2,883.37 2,998.70 3,118.65 3,243.40 3,373.13 3,508.06 3,648.38 3,794.32 3,946.09 4,103.93 4,268.09 4,438.81 4,616.37 4,801.02 4,993.06 5,192.78 5,400.50 5,616.52 5,841.18 6,074.82 6,317.82

1,000,000 Profit 102.53 106.63 110.90 115.33 119.95 124.75 129.74 134.93 140.32 145.94 151.77 157.84 164.16 170.72 177.55 184.65 192.04 199.72 207.71 216.02 224.66 233.65 242.99 252.71

%profit per month

Profit/wk Total Capital Mth 25.63 2,665.84 49 26.66 2,772.47 50 27.72 2,883.37 51 28.83 2,998.70 52 29.99 3,118.65 53 31.19 3,243.40 54 32.43 3,373.13 55 33.73 3,508.06 56 35.08 3,648.38 57 36.48 3,794.32 58 37.94 3,946.09 59 39.46 4,103.93 60 41.04 4,268.09 61 42.68 4,438.81 62 44.39 4,616.37 63 46.16 4,801.02 64 48.01 4,993.06 65 49.93 5,192.78 66 51.93 5,400.50 67 54.00 5,616.52 68 56.17 5,841.18 69 58.41 6,074.82 70 60.75 6,317.82 71 63.18 6,570.53 72

4% Capital 6,570.53 6,833.35 7,106.68 7,390.95 7,686.59 7,994.05 8,313.81 8,646.37 8,992.22 9,351.91 9,725.99 10,115.03 10,519.63 10,940.41 11,378.03 11,833.15 12,306.48 12,798.74 13,310.68 13,843.11 14,396.84 14,972.71 15,571.62 16,194.48

Unit Profit 262.82 273.33 284.27 295.64 307.46 319.76 332.55 345.85 359.69 374.08 389.04 404.60 420.79 437.62 455.12 473.33 492.26 511.95 532.43 553.72 575.87 598.91 622.86 647.78

x 1000 Baht

Profit/wk Total Capital 65.71 6,833.35 68.33 7,106.68 71.07 7,390.95 73.91 7,686.59 76.87 7,994.05 79.94 8,313.81 83.14 8,646.37 86.46 8,992.22 89.92 9,351.91 93.52 9,725.99 97.26 10,115.03 101.15 10,519.63 105.20 10,940.41 109.40 11,378.03 113.78 11,833.15 118.33 12,306.48 123.06 12,798.74 127.99 13,310.68 133.11 13,843.11 138.43 14,396.84 143.97 14,972.71 149.73 15,571.62 155.72 16,194.48 161.94 16,842.26

Reward - to â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Risk %Loss 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

RR 3:1 3:1 3:1 4:1 4:1 4:1

%Return 3% 6% 9% 12% 8% 4%

Diversified Risk • More Stocks , More Sectors

• More Investment Vehicles • Cash , Bonds

• Stocks , Mutual Funds • Futures , Options

• More Markets , More Country • More Asset Classes http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

8 WAYS TO STOP TECHNICS

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8 Ways to Stop Technics ① Initial Stop – Breakout Pyramid ② X – Bars Stop

③ MA Stop ④ Resistant – Support

⑤ Trend Line – Speed Line ⑥ Volatility Stop by ATR

⑦ Parabolic SAR ⑧ Timing Stop http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

1. Initial Stop â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Breakout Pyramid

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1. Initial Stop â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Breakout Pyramid Entry

Entry

Initial Stop

Entry Initial Stop Initial Stop

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1. Initial Stop â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Breakout Pyramid Initial Stop

Open Short

Initial Stop

Open Short

Initial Stop

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2. X-Bars Stop Live Bar 1st Bar Stop 2nd Bar Stop

• Trend Up :

Low ของแท่ง X เป็ น Stop

• Trend Down :

3rd Bar Stop

High ของแท่ง X เป็ น Stop

3rd Bar Stop 2nd Bar Stop 1st Bar Stop

Live Bar http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

• เริม ่ Entry ใช ้ 3rd Bar Stop

(Safety Belt) ั ลดจานวน • ราคาวิง ่ ไป กระชบ Bar เพือ ่ Lock Profit

2. X-Bars Stop 2-Bars Stop Open Long Open Long Initial Stop Trailing Stop by 3-Bars Stop Open Long

3-Bars Stop After Open Gap Initial Stop

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3. MA Stop • ใช ้ Moving Average ในการวาง Stop

้ ้ทัง้ EMA , SMA • ใชได ้ นให ้ ิ ค ้า และ • เลือกใชเส ้เหมาะกับสน

ความเร็วในการ Run Trend • ตัวอย่าง  EMA 5, 15 , 35  SMA 9, 20

 Alligators http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

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4. Resistant - Support • ใชกั้ บการ Breakout จาก Trading Range , Triangle ,

หรือ Neckline ของ Reversal Pattern ต่างๆ • ใชกั้ บ Gap ในกรณีราคาปิ ด Gap

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Throwback & OK False Break

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5. Trend Line and Speed line ้ น้ Trend Line หรือ Speed Line ในการ Lock • ใชเส

Profit • ราคาข ้าม Trend Line หมายถึงราคากาลังปรับตัว หรือ เปลีย ่ นทิศทาง • เหมาะกับ การ Take Profit หลังจากที่ Run Profit มาพอสมควรแล ้ว ั ขึน ั ใกล ้ราคา • เมือ ่ ราคาวิง่ ชน ้ ตี Speed Line ให ้กระชบ เพือ ่ Lock Profit

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6. Volatility Stop by ATR • Volatility = ความผันผวน เปลีย ่ นแปลงอย่าง

รวดเร็วของราคา • ATR = Average True Range , by J. Welles Wilder • ATR indicate Volatility of Price • TR = True Range

Image by StockCharts.com

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ATR Stop Tools • ATR period use 10 – 20 bars • Multiply use 1.5 – 3.5 Times

ั เจน • เหมาะกับ ราคาทีม ่ ี Trend ชด • ATR Trailing Stop • Volatility Stop

• ATR Band • Keltner Channel http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Volatility Stop • SIC = Significant

Close • Uptrend:

• SIC = Highest Close • Stop = SIC – (ATRx3)

• Downtrend: • SIC = Lowest Close • Stop = SIC +(ATRx3) • Flip when Price

Break last V-Stop

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Keltner Channel Keltner Channel SMA20 , 1.5xATR Use for Exit  Initial Stop and

Run Trend by SMA20  Lock Profit by using Channel

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7. Parabolic SAR • SAR = Stop And Reverse • Default Parameter : Step Factor = 0.02,

Max. Step = 0.20 ั เจน ไม่เหมาะ • เหมาะสาหรับราคาทีม ่ ี Trend ชด กับ Sideway เพราะ SAR จะกลับตัวไปมาใน Sideway เร็วมาก • Stop เมือ ่ Price วิง่ เข ้าหา SAR แล ้ว Price ทะลุ SAR อันสุดท ้าย http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Parabolic SAR • SAR show price

direction in Price Trending • Trailing Stop using the last SAR • Stop out when SAR change reverse and Price Break thru the Last SAR

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Parabolic SAR

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Parabolic SAR vs Volatility Stop • SAR อยูห ่ า่ งราคามาก

ไม่เหมาะสาหรับ Initial Stop • V-Stop ขยับด ้วย ATR เหมาะเป็ น Initial Stop มากกว่า • SAR บีบเข ้าใกล ้ราคา เมือ ่ Sideway • V-Stop ออกข ้าง เมือ ่ ราคา Sideway http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

8. Timing Stop ี่ งสูง หรือ มี Time • ใน Product ทีม ่ ค ี วามเสย Dilution อาจนา Timing Stop มาชว่ ยได ้ ้ • ใชในการหา Tempo of Price หรือ Potential Time to Exit • Fibonacci Time Target • Swing Counting • TD Sequential Count http://waveridersclub.blogspot.com

Fibonacci Time Target

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Swing Count Tactics

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TD Sequential Count

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