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Global Palm Oil Market ----------------------------------------------------2014
View Report Details Executive Summary Palm oil, one of the least expensive and high yielding crop, is a derivative of the oil palm (Elaesis guineensis) and is an essential component of diet. The oil palm is known for production of two types of oils from its fruit; first; the oil derived from the flesh of the fruit that is mainly serves the purpose of cooking oil, shortening, margarines, as a milk fat replacement, and in cocoa butter substitutes. The other oil is primarily used in manufacturing of soaps, cosmetics, detergents, and toiletries and is derived from the kernel. Oil Palm, the world’s highest yielding crop, is capable of producing an output that is 5 to 10 times greater than the output of other vegetable oils per hectare thereby, making it one of the most widely consumed oil across the globe. To satisfy the rising demand of palm oil from biofuel, agrifood, and oleochemistry industry, the global palm oil production is anticipated to be on a continuous rise in the foreseeable future. Indonesia and Malaysia are the leading two producers of palm oil while India and China are the major consumers. However, due to stringent regulations in Europe regarding the use of biofuels, it is also emerging as one of the leading importers of palm oil. The demand for sustainable palm oil is anticipated to grow in the near future as it addresses the environmental concerns such as it develops new plantation on existing cleared land, conserves natural resources, etc. The key factors driving growth of the global palm oil industry include high oil yields and lower cost of palm oil against major vegetable oil, escalating demand for biofuels, rising global population apart from growing per capita consumption. Some of the noteworthy trends and developments of this industry include ongoing merger & acquisition activities, rising acceptance of certified sustainable palm oil, rising biofuels mandates. However, the growth of the industry is being hindered by rising climatic and environment concerns, reduced land availability, and escalating biodiversity risks. The report analyzes the global palm oil industry on a number of parameters such as production, consumption, imports and exports. Regional analysis has also been incorporated in the report along with extensive coverage of top two palm oil producing and consuming regions. The report also includes the company profiles of four major players of the palm oil industry i.e. Wilmar International, Sime Darby, IOI International, and PT Astra Agro. By combining SPSS Inc.’s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.
The primary uses of vegetable oil include culinary use, use in the manufacturing of biofuels, pet food additive, industrial use and hydrogenated oil. •
The global production increased from ….. million metric tonnes in 2011/12 to …. million metric tonnes in 2012/13 thereby representing an incline of …%. The growth in the overall production of the vegetable oil can be attributed to the increase in the demand for biofuels, convenience foods (particularly health foods), processed and other foods, and cost effectiveness.
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Marking an incline of ….%, the total consumption of vegetable oil reached …. million metric tonnes in 2012/13, compared to ….. million metric tonnes during the corresponding period a year ago. The same is anticipated to be noted at …. million metric tonnes during the period from March 2013 to March 2014.
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In terms of percentage share, palm oil held a share of ….% of the total vegetable oil consumption, globally. Soybean and rapeseed oil represented shares equivalent to ….% and ….%, respectively. Sunflower oil and palm kernel oil are other majorly consumed vegetable oil with respective shares of ….% and …. %. Percentage Share of Global Vegetable Oil Consumption –
Mar 2013/14
Feb 2013/14
Jan 2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
M illion MT
Global Production of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2009/10 – March 2013/14)
Figure 1.6: Global Consumption of Vegetable Oil –
by Type of Oil (2012/13)
M illion MT
by Volume (2009/10 - Mar 2013/14)
2009/10
2011/12
Jan 2013/14 a
Mar 2013/14
Palm
Soybean
Rapeseed
Sunflowerseed
Peanut
Cottonseed
Coconut
Olive
Palm Kernel
During the age span of 7 years to 21 years, the yield generated by oil palm plants is always greater than 20 tonnes per hectare and maximum yield is generated at the age of 11 years and 13 years.
Mar 2013/14
Feb 2013/14
Jan 2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
Million M T
Global Palm Oil Production (2008/09 – Mar 2013/14)
Percentage Share of Palm Oil Imports – by Countries (2012/13)
•
Reporting an incline of ….%, the total production of palm oil reached ….. million metric tonnes in 2012/13, compared to …. million metric tonnes during the corresponding period a year ago. The same is anticipated to increase to …. million tonnes during the period spanning March 2013 to March 2014.
•
The top three importing nations, India, China and European Union, collectively accounted for ….% of the total global imports in 2012/13. Individually, India held …% share of the total palm oil exports while China accounted for ….% closely followed by European Union with moderate ….% share.
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The global consumption of palm oil increased from …. million metric tonnes in 2011/12 to …. million metric tonnes in 2012/13. This represented an incline of ….%. The growth in terms of global consumption of palm oil grew at a CAGR of …. % during the period spanning 2008/09 to 2012/13.
Mar 2013/14
Feb 2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
Jan 2013/14
Others
China European Union Pakistan Malaysia The US
2009/10
India
2008/09
Million MT
Global Palm Oil Consumption (2008/09 – March 2013/14)
The key factors driving growth of the global palm oil industry include high oil yields and lower cost of palm oil, escalating demand for biofuels, rising global population, and growing per capita consumption
Mar 2013/14
Feb 2013/14
Jan 2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
M illion MT
Total Exports of Palm Oil from Indonesia (2009/10 - Mar 2013/14)
Malaysia- Export of Palm Oil by Selected Countries (2013)
•
The export volume from Indonesia reached …. million metric tonnes in 2012/13, compared to …. million metric tonnes in 2011/12 thereby representing an incline of ….%. The growth in export volume was observed at a CAGR of ….% during the period spanning 2009/10 to 2012/13.
•
China held ….% of the total palm oil exports from Malaysia. European Union represented ….% share, closely followed by ….% share of India. Further, top 8 importers of palm oil from Malaysia collectively accounted of ….% of palm oil exports
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The import of palm oil to India has been consistently increasing over the past couple of years. Palm oil import volume inclined by ….% reaching …. million metric tonnes in 2012/13, compared to … million metric tonnes during the corresponding period a year ago. The notable increase at a CAGR of ….% was observed in the import volume of palm oil during the period spanning 2009/10 to 2012/13 .
Million MT
Import Volume of Palm Oil to India (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14)
2009/10 China
EU
Japan Others
India Netherlands Pakistan The US Iran
2011/12
Jan 2013/14
Mar 2013/14
Major vegetable oils that are most widely used include palm, soybean, rapeseed, sunflower seed, peanut, cottonseed, palm kernel, coconut, olive, corn oil, grape seed oil, linseed oil, sesame oil, and rice bran oil. Worldwide Palm Oil Consumption Forecast by Volume (2008/09 – 2016/17F)
The import of palm oil to India has been consistently increasing over the past couple of years. Palm oil import volume inclined by ….% reaching … million metric tonnes in 2012/13, compared to …. million metric tonnes during the corresponding period a year ago. The notable increase at a CAGR of ….% during the period spanning 2009/10 to 2012/13 in the import volume of palm oil can be chiefly attributed to escalating population, rising income and changing consumer patterns. The same is projected to be noted at …. million metric tonnes during the period from March 2013 to March 2014.
The global consumption of palm oil is forecasted to reach …. million metric tonnes by the end of 2013/14, up by ….%, compared to …. million tonnes during the corresponding period a year ago. The same is projected to be recorded at …. million metric tonnes by the end of period 2016/17. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the growth in terms of global consumption of palm oil will be noted at a CAGR of …..% during the period spanning 2008/09 to 2016/17
During the period 2012/13, Indonesia was the leading exporter of vegetable oil with export volume of …. million metric tonnes. With export volume equivalent to …. million metric tonnes, Malaysia was the second largest exporter of vegetable oils. Other major exporters of vegetable oil include Argentina, Ukraine, Canada, European Union and Brazil. Further, the leading two countries represented ….% of the total exports during the aforementioned period.
Note: Market attractiveness is inverse of penetration. Low penetration means high attractiveness and vice-versa
2016/17F
2015/16F
2014/15F
2013/14F
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
Mar 2013/14
Feb 2013/14
Jan 2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
M illion M T
Million MT
Figure 4.4: Import Volume of Palm Oil to India (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14)
Table of Contents 1.
1. Vegetable Oil Market 1.1 Introduction
List of Charts & Tables List of Charts
1.1.1 Use of Vegetable Oil 1.2 Vegetable Oil Production 1.2.1 Global Production 1.2.2 Regional Production 1.2.3 Production by Type of Vegetable Oil 1.3 Vegetable Oil Consumption 1.3.1 Global Consumption 1.3.2 Regional Consumption 1.3.3 Consumption by Type of Vegetable Oil 1.4 Import Trend 1.5 Export Trend 2. Palm Oil Market 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Palm Oil – Supply Chain Analysis 2.3 Production 2.3.1 Global Analysis 2.3.2 Regional Analysis 2.4 Consumption 2.4.1 Global Analysis 2.4.2 Regional Analysis 2.5 Area Harvested and Yield 2.6 Import Trend 2.7 Export Trend
Global Production of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2009/10 – March 2013/14) Regional Production of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2012/13) Regional Percentage Share in Global Vegetable Oil Production (2012/13) Global Vegetable Oil Production – Volume Share by Type of Oil (2012/13) Percentage Share of Global Vegetable Oil Production – by Type of Oil (2012/13) Global Consumption of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2009/10 - Mar 2013/14) Regional Consumption of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2012/13) Percentage Share of Regions in Consumption of Vegetable Oil – by Volume (2012/13) Global Vegetable Oil Consumption – Volume Share by Type of Oil (2012/13) Percentage Share of Global Vegetable Oil Consumption – by Type of Oil (2012/13) Global Vegetable Oil Import Trend (2009/10 - Mar 2013/14) Global Vegetable Oil Export Trend (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14) Palm Oil Mill Process: Residue Utilization Palm Oil Yield Curve by Age Fresh Fruit Bunches (FBB) Yield Curve by Age Production Process of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) Crude Palm Oil Production Process Global Palm Oil Production (2008/09 – Mar 2013/14) Regional Production of Palm Oil (2012/13) Global Palm Oil Production – Volume Share by Country (2012/13) Global Palm Oil Consumption (2008/09 – March 2013/14) Regional Consumption of Palm Oil (20012/13) Global Palm Oil Consumption – Volume Share by Country (2012/13) Global Total Area Harvested for Palm (2008-2013) Total Yield for Palm (2008-2013) Percentage Share of Palm Oil Imports – by Countries (2012/13) Percentage Share of Palm Oil Imports – by Countries (2012/13) Total Planted and Harvested Oil Palm Area in Indonesia (2008-2013) Indonesian Oil Palm Plantation by Ownership (2012) Production and Consumption of Palm Oil in Indonesia (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14)
3. Major Oil Palm Producing Countries 3.1 Indonesia 3.1.1 Planted Area 3.1.2 Production and Consumption 3.1.3 Exports 3.2 Malaysia 3.2.1 Planted Area 3.2.2 Production 3.2.3 FBB and Crude Palm Oil Yield 3.2.4 Exports 3.2.5 Palm Oil Price Trend 3.2.6 Capacity of Palm Oil Sectors 4. Major Palm Oil Consuming Countries 4.1 India 4.1.1 Consumption 4.1.2 Import 4.1.3 Crude Palm Oil Price Trend 4.2 China 4.2.1 Consumption 4.2.1 Import 5. Market Dynamics 5.1 Growth Drivers 5.1.1 Capability to Produce High Oil Yield 5.1.2 Rising Demand for Biofuels 5.1.3 Escalating Global Population 5.1.4 Growing per Capita Consumption 5.1.5 Cost Effective 5.1.6 Lower Planted Area with High Productivity 5.2 Trend and Developments 5.2.1 Continuous Merger & Acquisition Activity
Total Exports of Palm Oil from Indonesia (2009/10 - Mar 2013/14) Oil Palm Planted Area in Malaysia (2005-2013) Malaysia’s Oil Palm Planted Area by Category (2013) Production of Crude Palm Oil in Malaysia (2007-2013) Production of Other Oil Palm Products in Malaysia (2009-2012) Malaysia- Export of Palm Oil by Selected Countries (2013) Malaysian Local Delivered Palm Oil Prices (2009-2013) Domestic Consumption of Palm Oil in India (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14) Consumption Share of Edible Oils in India (2001/02 & 2011/12) Import of Edible Oils to India by Type (2012/13) Import Volume of Palm Oil to India (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14) Annual Average Price of CPO in India (2006 - 2013) Domestic Consumption of Palm Oil in China (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14) Import of Palm Oil to China by Volume (2009/10 – Mar 2013/14) Total Palm Oil Imports from Malaysia to China (2005-2013) Oil Yield (in tonnes) per Hectare (2012) World Biofuels Production (2005-2012) Global Population (2003-2012) Per Capita Consumption of Palm Oil in Major Countries (2012) Comparison of Major Vegetable Oil Prices (Jan 2013- Jan 2014) Global Planted Area for Vegetable Oils – Share by Type of Oil (2012) Global Vegetable Oil Production - Share by Types of Oils (2012) CSPO Market Uptake per Year (2008-2012) CSPO Production Area (2008-2013) CSPO Annual Production Capacity Worldwide (2008-2012) Monthly Closing Stock of Palm Oil in Malaysia (Jan 2013 – Dec 2013) Wilmar International Revenue Share by Business Segments (2013) Wilmar International Revenue (2009-2013) PT Astra Agro Lestari Revenue Share by Business Segments (2012) PT Astra Agro Lestari Revenue and Net Income (2008-2012) Sime Darby - Revenue Share by Business Segments (2013) Sime Darby Revenues from Plantation Division (2009-2013) IOI Corporation Berhad Revenue Share by Business Segment (2013) Revenue and Income of IOI Corporation Berhad (2009-2013) Worldwide Palm Oil Consumption Forecast by Volume (2008/09 – 2016/17F)
5.2.2 Rising Acceptance of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO) 5.2.3 Rising Biofuels Mandates 5.3 Challenges 5.3.1 Rising Environmental and Climatic Concerns 5.3.2 Strict Shipment Compliances 5.3.3 Reduced Land Availability 5.3.4 Escalating Biodiversity Risk 5.3.5 Rising Palm Oil Monthly Closing Stock 6. Company Profiles 6.1 Wilmar International Limited 6.1.1 Business Overview 6.1.2 Financial Overview 6.1.3 Business Strategies -Expanding Global Footprint -Focus on New Partnerships 6.2 PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk 6.2.1 Business Overview 6.2.2 Financial Overview 6.2.3 Business Strategies -Focus on Intensification Programs -Expansion of Production Mills 6.3 Sime Darby 6.3.1 Business Overview 6.3.2 Financial Overview 6.3.3 Business Strategies -Focus on Sustainability Growth -Growth through Rigorous R&D 6.4 IOI Corporation Berhad 6.4.1 Business Overview 6.4.2 Financial Overview
List of Tables Major Types of Vegetable Oils Top Countries by Import of Vegetable Oil (2012/13) Top Countries by Export of Vegetable Oil (2012/13) Palm Oil Imports - by Country (2009/10 - 2012/13) Palm Oil Exports by Country (2009/10 to 2012/13) Malaysia’s Oil Palm Planted Area by States (2013) FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) Yield in Malaysia - by States (2009-2013) Crude Palm Oil Yield in Malaysia – by States (2008-2013) Volume of Palm Oil Exported by Types from Malaysia (2007-2013) Export Duty Rate of CPO in Malaysia (Effective from January 2013) Number and Capacity of Palm Oil Sectors (2013) Import Duty on Major Edible Oil in India (with effect from 28 February 2014) Palm Oil Industry’s M&A (2010-2013) Bio-diesel Admixture Mandates (2013-2014) Dependent & Independent Variables (2008/09 – 2012/13) Correlation Matrix Model Summary – Coefficient of Determination Regression Coefficients Output
6.4.3 Business Strategies -Expansion through Strategic Acquisitions -Research Focused on Enhancing Oil Yield 7. Market Outlook 7.1 Market Forecast 7.2 Forecast Methodology 7.2.1 Dependent and Independent Variables 7.2.2 Correlation Analysis 7.2.3 Regression Analysis
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