NEWS & OPINION FEATURE
TOO MANY CHILDREN LEF T BEHIND
Researchers estimate more than 3,600 children have lost caregivers in North Carolina due to the COVID-19 pandemic BY KATIE DUKES, EDNC.ORG
Research published in October in the Journal of Pediatrics revealed the high toll caregiver deaths are taking on children nationwide, particularly Native American, Hispanic and Black children. The researchers used fertility, household composition data, and COVID-19 and excess death rates to estimate what they termed “COVID-19associated orphanhood.” They estimated at least 1,855 children in North Carolina lost a caregiver between April 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021. Updated estimates now put this number even higher. A new report published in December by the COVID Collaborative used a similar methodology to expand on the previous estimate, including deaths from January 2020 through midNovember 2021. That study estimated 3,626 children have lost caregivers in North Carolina during that time. For the purposes of both studies, “caregivers” are parents, custodial grandparents, or grandparents who live in the same household as the children and provide for at least some of their basic needs. The death of any caregiver can have negative impacts on the learning and health outcomes of children over the course of their lives. Children who’ve lost caregivers are more likely to experience mental health problems and lower self-esteem. They’re also at higher risk of suicide, violence, sexual abuse and exploitation. Additionally, this type of loss is associated with shorter schooling.
Pg. 4 - JAN 26 - FEB 9, 2022
Undercounting caregiver deaths
In the original research paper and in subsequent interviews, the researchers acknowledge their methodology likely resulted in an undercount of the true number of children experiencing caregiver death. This is due in part to the period they studied. From April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021, North Carolina recorded almost 14,000 COVID deaths. In
Researchers estimate that at least 3,600 children in North Carolina have lost caregivers during the pandemic. the six months since the study’s completion, more than 5,000 additional deaths have been reported. There are also many children who live with aunts, uncles, or other guardians whose deaths would not have been included in either study’s methodology. While the more recent study includes those additional deaths, the likelihood of undercounting is still present, in part because states such as North Carolina are months behind in processing death certificates. According to Summer Tonizzo, a representative from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, the transition from a paper system to a digital database for tracking death certificates means “there can be 3 to 5 month delay from the
date of death before that death record is included in [State Center for Health Statistics] data files.” This means some of the data used by researchers to estimate the number of caregiver deaths is out of date. Susan Hillis, a COVID-19 response researcher with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and lead author of one of the studies, said that’s why her top priority for addressing this crisis is getting an accurate, timely accounting of how many kids have experienced the death of a caregiver and who those children are. In response to learning about North Carolina’s death record delays, Hillis stressed, “The estimate of the number of children affected will only be as good as your death estimates.”
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In general, Hillis says it’s a reasonable estimate that for every four COVID-19 deaths, one child is orphaned. North Carolina’s COVID death toll surpassed 20,000 on Jan. 20, according to the NC Department of Health & Human Services. By Hillis’s broad estimation, there may be as many as 5,000 children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. That’s approximately one of every 462 children across the state. The report helps stakeholders begin to predict where those losses have occurred. By comparing county COVID-19 death rates with the proportion of the population under age 18 in each county, it’s possible to find counties where both of those rates are high. These counties likely have higher proportions of children who’ve experienced caregiver loss.
