Ltm2008 기조강연

International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Keynote Speech

10•2008국토해양 R&D 국제심포지엄

Keynote Speeches

Ocean 2.0: Resources and Challenges for the 21st Century Tony Haymet

Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Trends and Technology Issues in the Construction and Transportation area to meet Climate Change Jerome C. Glenn

President, The Millennium Project World Federation of UN Associations, USA

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Keynote Speeches

Ocean 2.0: Resources and Challenges for the 21st Century

Dr. Tony Haymet Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Dr Tony Haymet is a highly distinguished researcher. His personal scientific interests include Antarctic fish antifreeze proteins and nucleation. Between 1981 and 1991 Dr Haymet worked in the USA at Harvard University, Berkeley University and University of Utah. He returned to Australia in 1991 and worked as Professor and Chair of Theoretical Chemistry at the University of Sydney. In 1998, Dr Haymet became Distinguished University Professor of Chemistry at the University of Houston, and two years later founded the University of Houston Environmental Modeling Institute. In January 2003, Dr Haymet became Chief of CSIRO Marine Research, and in July 2005, became Chief of the newlymerged CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research.

Abstract Societies throughout the world continue to expand the use of the oceans for commerce, food, and recreation. Many challenges await us in the next 30 years. The world’s mega-ports continue to expand, and some, including Los Angeles – Long Beach, will soon be at capacity. Blue water fisheries continue to expand with even more sophisticated “high-tech” equipment more familiar from military operations, even as the cost of the catch continues on an alarming decade-long rise. The rising price of fuel has caused a rethinking of manufacturing and distribution strategies, especially in the Pacific Rim, while the global community continues to negotiate agreements on CO2 reduction. In North America, both cod (East Coast) and salmon (West Coast) fisheries have crashed, even while under strict professional fisheries management, humbling even the most optimistic scientists. Marine ecosystems from Thailand to the north Atlantic show unprecedented changes. Coastal real estate continues to be prized in developed and developing economies, as the recreation and inspiration human beings derive from the ocean becomes ever more precious. Due to human encroachment over the last 50 years, it is likely that our oceans will never return to their original state, Ocean 1.0.

Faced with such daunting challenges, it may seem surprising that there are new opportunities.

Thanks to a combination of satellite technology, and economical in situ diving robots, we are now within reach of gathering all the information we need to monitor the “health” of the ocean, in the same way as we have for many centuries for productive terrestrial land. The networks also provide cheap monitoring of this “ocean commons” to prevent rogue national or groups from destroying communal resources. The United Nations Law of the Sea Convention provides a framework for managing the world’s most important communal resource. The year 2009 brings new opportunities for countries to join and strengthen this management framework.

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Ocean 2.0 : Resources and Challenges for the 21st Century November 6, 2008 Professor Tony Haymet Director

• We are land animals and mostly look at the surface of the ocean.

• It all looks much the same and fine on the surface.

• But what is going on beneath the surface?

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Keynote Speeches

Thomas Huxley (1883) “all the great sea-fisheries are inexhaustible; that is to say nothing we can do seriously affects the number of fish.”

Northern Bluefin Tuna International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology•15

International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

The oceans, life and humans – our growing use of the ocean

•Growth in population and energy use ! lights from cities

•Coastal development

•Oil and gas extraction

•Fishing more species in more places with better technology

•Coastal aquaculture

•Size and number of ships

population and energy use !humans lights from cities • Growth in The oceans, life and

– our growing use of the ocean

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Keynote Speeches

Oceans are Becoming More Acidic North Pacific (near Hawaii)

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Ocean Oxygen-Minimum Zones Expanding

Image: Janet Sprintall

Global Mean Sea Level from Satellite Altimetry

[Mitchum and Nerem, 2007]

Average Rate = 3.5 mm/year (1993-2006)

Thermal Expansion: 1.2 - 1.6 mm/year Mountain Glaciers: ~0.9 mm/year Greenland Ice Melt: ~0.5 mm/year Antarctic Ice Melt: ~0.4 mm/year Land Water Storage: ?

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Keynote Speeches

Ocean Noise Rising • Tenfold noise increase since

the 1960s • Culprit appears to be global shipping trade • Unknown impacts on marine animals and their habitats

Photos: Scripps Oceanography, John Hildebrand

Fish Stocks Disrupted • Fishing disrupts targeted fish stock species’ population bases • Using CalCOFI data, scientists found that fished species “age pyramid” is disrupted • Removing older members leaves population dynamically unstable • “Throw the big ones back” Photos: Scripps Oceanography, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, George Sugihara

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Threats to Marine Ecosystems Rise of “Slime” Due to: • Habitat Destruction • Overfishing • Pollution

Photos: Scripps Oceanography

Threats to Marine Ecosystems Rise of “Slime” Also due to: • Increased Ocean Acidification • Ocean Warming • Climate Change Photos: Scripps Oceanography, Ocean Champions, and Jennifer E. Smith

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Keynote Speeches

Scripps Data in Google Earth

Scripps Data in Google Earth

Insert Movie 1 here

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Distribution and Abundance of Near-surface Fish Eggs

Pacific sardine Northern anchovy Jack mackerel

Photo: E. Venrick

17

http://swfsc.nmfs.noaa.gov/frd/CalCOFI/CurrentCruise/images/0104APR.jpg

Garbage in the Oceans • Ocean

currents in subtropical gyres converge at the surface, create "dead maelstroms.”

• One gyre NE of Hawaii could contain Texas-sized mass of mostly plastic garbage.

• Scripps drifters find larger convergent gyre in south Pacific. Even more trash?

Images: NOAA, Nikolai Maximenko/ Univ. of Hawaii

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Keynote Speeches

Garbage in the Oceans • Ocean

currents in subtropical gyres converge at the surface, create "dead maelstroms.”

• One gyre NE of Hawaii could contain Texas-sized mass of mostly plastic garbage.

• Scripps drifters find larger convergent gyre in south Pacific. Even more trash?

Argo: Taking the “Pulse” of the Planet

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Argo: Taking the “Pulse” of the Planet

Insert movie 2 here

All is Not Lost “It may be that the oceans are the last, best hope of the earth."

--Roger Revelle

Photos: Scripps Oceanography

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Keynote Speeches

THANK YOU - Any Questions?

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Keynote Speeches

Trends and Technology Issues in the Construction and Transportation area to meet the Climate Change Jerome C. Glenn President, The Millennium Project World Federation of UN Associations, USA

Jerome C. Glenn is co-founder and Director of the Millennium Project of the World Federation of UN Associations. He is known for inventing of the Futures wheel technique and is cited as an expert on Future studies methodology by RAND Corporation. Millennium Project is a leading global participatory think tank supported by international organizations, governments, corporations, and NGOs, which produces the internationally recognized State of the Future annual reports for the past ten years. He is also the executive director of the American Council for the United Nations University since 1988, which represents the UNU in Washington, D.C. Glenn received a BA in Philosophy at The American University and holds an MA in Teaching Social Science focused on Futuristic Curriculum Development from the Antioch University New England.

Abstract The accelerating rate of change will make the changes of the last 25 years appear slow compared to the next 25 years. The build environmental will have ubiquitous artificial intelligence imbedded. Humans will also have nanotech imbedded on and in there bodies with transceivers making a continuum of the built environment, human bodies, and our minds. Before we get to this “Conscious-Technology” age we have to address climate change in a variety of ways. Carbon based fuel systems have to be retrofitted with carbon sequestration systems and as much of constructed surfaces should be retrofitted with solar electric and thermal systems.

We have to shift from petroleum to electric-based transportation systems and change the base-load electricity systems of the world eventually to Solar Power Satellites (Japan is the first country to make this a national goal). The new field of “Urban Systems Ecology” should be taught in universities and developed as the basis for urban planning and construction industries. A collective intelligence fro the transportation, construction, and marine industries to address climate change will be helpful as will the integration of archeology, urban systems ecology, and cyberspace.

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

The Millennium Project

Trends and Technology Issues in the Construction and Transportation area to meet Climate Change

Outline • • • • • • • •

Accelerating rate of change Conscious-Technology Carbon Sequestration Shift to Electric transportation Solar Power Satellites (Japan) Urban Systems Ecology Construction retrofit with solar energy Transportation and Construction Collective Intelligence for Climate Change • Integration of archeology, urban systems ecology, and cyberspace

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Keynote Speeches

Just 25 years ago, who would have believed that Korea’s…

• Businesses could compete successfully with the USA in • Transportation • Communications • Information systems

• GDP would be 13th in the world and close to both Russia’s and India’s GPD

• GDP per capita (PPP) would be US$10,000 more than Russia’s

• Computer games would be played by millions around the world?

Just 25 years ago, there was no • Euros, WTO, or NATO in Afghanistan • Internet, camera-phones, few PCs • Talk of globalization, genetically modified food, stem cells, or AIDS pandemic

• Asymmetrical warfare, and • … and most believed that a nuclear WW III would have destroyed the world by now

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

2050 2025 2007

25 Years from now, what will we construct?

30•2008국토해양 R&D 국제심포지엄

Keynote Speeches

What’s possible in next 25 years?

•

Nanotech in all transportation and construction for efficiencies and reduced environmental impacts

• • • • •

Urban systems ecology as well established field

•

More than half the world spends more than half its time in cyberspace being more “real” that 3D reality

• •

A global brain(s) emerging from Internet

Collective Intelligence software (personal, local, and global) “Just in time knowledge” in the build environment The race to connect anything not yet connected Lines of genetic code written like software code making biotecture (integrating biology and architecture)

…evolving into Conscious-Technology

Conscious-Technology (Post-Information Age) When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the

Post-Information Age

HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT

2030 2015 2000 1985

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Simplification of History and an Alternative Future Age or Era

Product

Power

Wealth

Place

War

Time

Agricultural Extraction

Food/Res

Religion

Land

Earth/Res

Location

Cyclical

Industrial

Machine

NationState

Capital

Factory

Resources

Linear

Information

Info/serv

Corporatio n

Access

Office

Perception

Flexible

ConsciousTechnology

Linkage

Individual

Being

Motion

Identity

Invente d

Carbon Sequestration Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth 1500 Surprise Geothermal Solar

Carbon sequestration

1000 Exajoules

Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro

500

Gas Oil &NGL

0 1860

Coal Trad. Bio.

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

800-1,000 Coal plants without carbon capture and storage are in planning or construction

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Keynote Speeches

We need an overview of Carbon Sequestration Options Technology Option

State of Scientific Knowledge now

Cost, benefit, Policy time-toOptions impact

Option 1 Option 2 Etc.

Low cost electric car batteries (batteries may fall to $2,000 for 10KW)

Lithium-Ion batteries from Thunder Sky in China could dramatically lower the costs of electric cars in Europe and North America when their new factories are completed in July 2007 in the US and the second half of 2008 in Finland.

Chinese bus companies have signed the long-term contracts. Chinese car companies could use these batteries to make as many as 100,000 by 2008 and 200,000 by 2009/2010.

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Solar Power Satellites … Global Electricity Issues By 2050 an additional ~2.4 billion people will be added, 5-7 billion of the 9 billion in 2050 will live in urban concentrations, economic growth will accelerate, 300-425 nuclear power plants will be closed, electric cars will increase. Where will the extra electricity come from ?

Fossil Fuels ?

Environmental Impacts Nuclear power ?

Security and Env. Impacts Alternatives from earth ?

Not enough for megacities Energy from Space ?

No greenhouse gases No nuclear waste Enough for the world

Space Solar Power Global Energy Grid

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Keynote Speeches

Urban Systems Ecology Ubiquitous computing Nanotech sensors Collective Intelligence To optimize efficiencies with just in time knowledge • City becomes a Conscious-Technology Meta-organism • Resilience Systems for anticipation, identification, response • • • •

No more please…

Source: www.transfuture.net

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

Today

Tomorrow, maybe

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Keynote Speeches

Retrofit for Solar Energy

Collective Intelligence (CI) to support future transportation and construction • CI is an emergent property from synergies among data/information/intelligence, software/hardware, and experts, that continually learns from feedback to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions than these elements acting alone.

• Wikipedia is an early example. GENIS is another.

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International Symposium on Land, Transport and Marine Technology

GENIS (Global Energy Network and Information System) • The Global Energy Network (GEN), providing communications and collaboration capabilities for a worldwide community of experts and others working on, or concerned with, energy issues;

• The Global Energy Information System (GEIS), a repository (knowledge base) and associated interactive access facility for as much of the world's total knowledge (actual content, pointers to external systems, and ability to mashup from other databases into one integrated set of outputs) about energy as can be accumulated.

Integration of archeology, urban systems ecology, and cyberspace

http://www.jvrb.org www.jvrb.org

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Keynote Speeches

For further information Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project 4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax JGLENN@IGC.ORG

WEB 1.0 www.StateoftheFuture.org WEB 2.0 www.mpcollab.org

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