Russia and India Business Report

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WEDNESDAY MAY 14, 2014

Business Report RUSSIA&INDIA THE ECONOMIC TIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA, RUSSIA

ECONOMY: Moscow looks at Oregon model, Ministry of Economic Development has firmed up a blueprint for SEZ

Russia plans to create SEZ, offshore tax haven in Crimea

STATISTICS Ruble/Rupee dollar rates

The Russian government has set a record low rate for value-added tax (VAT) in Crimea and is offering a host of incentives to attract both Russian and foreign investors to convert the peninsula into an economic dynamo. ALEXEY LOSSAN

Stock Market Index

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Major stock markets ranked by P/E SHUTTERSTOCK/LEGION-MEDIA

mid the raging crisis in Ukraine, Russia is planning to make Crimea a special economic zone and a “civilized offshore” which will become a hub for investment. Unveiling the plan, Russia’s Minister for Crimean Affairs Oleg Savelyev said the government is planning a liberal model of development of the peninsula, and the creation of a “civilized offshore.” He said the new model will provide maximum delegation of federal powers to local authorities and help minimise costs, which will allow making deals according to the British law. Since early May, the Crimea State Council has established new rates on value-added taxes: 4 percent for regular wares and 2 percent for socially important ones, including foodstuff, children’s goods, and medicines. The NDS (VAT) is 18 percent throughout Russia. The lowering of the NDS is unprecedented for Russia. Such low taxes only occur in offshore zones. According to Investcafe analyst Mikhail Kuzmin, such a decision seems a logical step to attract additional investments into the region. “The Russian authorities will try to create maximum relief to get business onto the territory of Crimea,” says the expert. The new tax rate is set through the beginning of 2015. However, it may be extended in the future. “If this measure results in positive results and stimulates investment activity, then the given NDS rates for the Crimea will be retained after the end of the transition period,” says Victor Demidov, the Head of the Department of Legal Consulting at Finexpertiza. The VAT is a federal tax, but in the case

Crimea is poised to create ideal conditions for attracting more business and investment.

of Crimea, an exception has been made: the Russian federal legislation will start to function on the island only at the start of the New Year. “This tax zone will be interesting, first of all, for the enterprises operating in the Crimea, as well as for Russian and foreign investors – provided the tensions surrounding Ukraine are lowered,” says the UFS IC expert Vasiliy Ukharsky.

In other countries, the lowering of taxes has worked. For instance, the income tax was eliminated in the American state of Oregon, which helped transform this region into an attractive destination for shopping, e-commerce, and the development of new designs by major clothing brands. The Russian authorities have somewhat similar plans for Crimea. The Ministry of

Economic Development has worked out a plan for creating a special economic zone on the peninsula. If a company puts 150 million rubles ($4.2 million) into the economy of the region over a period of three years, then it will be relieved of all taxes except for the 10 percent tax on profit. However, this programme is still being finalised by the Russian government.

Poll: Will Russia’s isolation impact its fortunes?

MARKET: Rosneft, targeted by the US sanctions, is now being traded at 4.3 times than its annual profits

Undervalued companies: Wait for the tide to turn The Ukraine crisis has led to a fall in shares of Russian companies, making them more attractive to investors. IVAN BRIZOV RIBR

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ussian companies have traditionally been undervalued by the market, and the current crisis in Ukraine, combined with US and EU sanctions, have led to a further fall in prices. One way to determine the fair price of a company is considered as the ratio of its market capitalisation to its annual profits (PE ratio) – this factor acts as

an indicator of how much the company is undervalued by the market. Thus, the securities included on the main Russian index, the MICEX, are being traded at an average of five times their annual profits. In Turkey, this indicator is 9.4, in Poland 12.5, while in Brazil it is 13.1 Russian companies, on an average, are, therefore, valued at 2.5 times less than companies in Brazil. At the same time, in some Russian companies, the ratio of market capitalisation

to profits may exceed that of their foreign counterparts several times. For example, the capitalisation of Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest producer of nickel, is 41.7 times greater than its annual profits, a record for the Russian market. According to the investment holding company Finam, the most undervalued Russian company is Transneft, engaged in the construction and operation of pipelines. The second most undervalued company is Gazprom, which provides 40 percent of gas deliveries to the European Union. This company is worth $83.7 billion, which is just 2.7 times its annual profits. The shares of Gazprom are the most popular securities

among foreigners investing in Russia. Lukoil comes third, followed by Surgutneftegas – the most closed Russian oil company. Finally, closing the Top-5 list of the most undervalued companies, is the state-owned Rosneft, which is now worth only $66.87 billion and is being traded at 4.3 times its annual profits. It has been hit hard by the US sanctions as its president, former deputy prime minister Igor Sechin, was placed on the US’ “black list.” However, as they noted in Finam, once the sanctions’ issue disappears and investors return to the Russian market, then most likely they will turn their attention to Rosneft.

Poll: Will Russia become a great power?

THE OUTSIDER’S INSIGHT

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11

How unshakable is territorial integrity?

June

In its approach to the situation in Ukraine, the Indian leadership has consistently underlined its commitment to the principle of a state’s territorial integrity. However, if India had always followed this principle, the independent state of Bangladesh would not exist on the world map today. As the events in Ukraine become more terrible and tragic, I get a feeling of déjà vu more and more often. Judge for yourself. A country in which the division of East and West can clearly be seen; not only is the population of these parts simply unable to get along with each other within a single state, but also feels an absolute rejection of principles which one part of the population is trying to impose on the other. When the Eastern population begins to demand respect for their

legitimate rights and interests, the government, representing the interests of the West, unleashes a bloody massacre and genocide against its own people. Which country are we referring to? Ukraine in 2014? Yes, but not just Ukraine. Remember that the same thing happened over 40 years ago, much closer to the borders of India, which now takes a rather balanced position in relation to Ukraine, but for some reason still cannot openly admit who is right . The duality of India’s position can be partly understood. But let’s acknowledge that, for example, the Indo-Pakistani dispute over Kashmir has no parallels with the current situation around Ukraine. The referendum in the Crimea was held with the legitimate authorities being in full control of its territory, and nobody

prevented the citizens from making their choice. And the voting showed that 97 percent of the population was in favour of reunification with Russia. None of this is possible in today’s Kashmir; there is no need to talk about a referendum in a territory controlled by at least three administrations. And, of course, one cannot expect such a clear voting outcome. Here’s another parallel with respect to what is happening today in the south-east of Ukraine. It’s about the 1971 events in Bangladesh (East Pakistan at the time), the same struggle of the Eastern population for its vital national interests and the same attempt by the central government to crush protests by force. If during that time, nobody in the world had stood up for the rights of East Pakistanis, this would have led to greater scale of genocide, a complete infringement of the rights of the Bengali population, and a relegation of Bengalis living in East Pakistan to the level of second-class people who do not have any rights to their language, culture, or identity. In 1971, India had no doubt about how to act in this situation. As soon as the Indian troops, who entered East Pakistan and saved hundreds of thousands, the national liberation struggle of the Bengalis was a success, and the independent state of Bangladesh appeared on the world map. Of course, today it is not so easy

for India to take a similar position in relation to the Ukraine crisis. Firstly, Ukraine is far away. Secondly, India itself is at a crossroads, and the country’s leaders have to think more about their own political future in the country rather than about some actions in the international arena. Finally, over the decades that have passed since the events in Bangladesh, India’s foreign policy has evolved towards the West. However, today the West is an active supporter of pogroms in Kiev’s Maidan; it contributed to the rise to power of Nazis in Ukraine, encouraging genocide of the Ukrainian people, perpetrated by illegitimate authorities of that country. In these circumstances, there is hope that the current (or future) Indian leadership will still remember that the territorial value is not immune when it comes to people’ survival. There is still hope that following the example of India in 1971, Russia will not have to send troops to Ukraine to protect the civilian population. However, if the Nazis consolidated in Kiev continue to pursue a policy of genocide of their own people, Russia will have to take adequate measures. Then I would very much like to see India, while assessing the situation, recall Bangladesh rather than Kashmir.

The author’s blog in.rbth.com/blogs/ the_ outsiders_insight


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