ANNUA L REPOR T
REAL ESTATE CENTER 2015–16
DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE In what became a downright
corporations in the world
their informed opinions of
ugly if not surreal election
compete for these honors.
what is likely to happen.
Conducting research and
Our progress is the result of
communicating results
the maturity and experience
in a way that is clear and
of the Center’s research
appealing to a broad
and communications staff.
audience distinguish the
Maturity is a key word.
Center from other sources of
Retirement of key individuals
real estate information.
has begun. The Center’s
year, Peggy Noonan’s commentary in the Wall Street Journal hit home with me. She said America needs seriousness, sincerity, and normality. Normalcy comes from adherence to a strong set of core values. Over the Center’s 45 years, our core values—particularly commitment to excellence— have driven us.
These accomplishments mirror the underlying strength of the Center’s research agenda. As a result of the Center’s data warehouse and the skills
longtime attorney, Judon Fambrough, retired at the end of August and others are soon to follow. The Center is a close-knit team, and finding new talent is the most strategic challenge we face
Among numerous awards
of our analytics team, we
won this year, we earned a
can now take our analysis
Gold Quill Award from the
of residential markets to
A top CEO once quipped,
International Association of
much more meaningful
“One great person equals
Business Communicators.
geographical levels. In
three good.” You will be
The Gold Quill is the top
many cases, that includes
seeing some new names
recognition awarded to
to the neighborhood level.
and faces at the Center over
organizations throughout
Forecasting business and
the next few years. But you
the world for excellence in
economic activity has
can count on this: we will be
communicating information.
replaced reporting history,
serious, sincere, and very
The largest institutions and
and the research team is
selective. After all, change
accepting the risk of offering
is the one constant we can
today.
count on.
GARY MALER DIRECTOR
FORTY-FIVE YEARS The Center celebrated its
economic forecasting to
notably by state lawmakers
45th anniversary this year.
inform your decisions about
and public policy directors
Several of our staff members
buying a house, relocating a
who look to the Center for
have been along for most
business, or planning urban
the most reliable, up-to-
of the ride—Director Gary
growth? College Station.”
date information they can
Maler for 38 years, Attorney Judon Fambrough for 39, Research Economist Charles Gilliland for 39, and Senior
For over 45 years, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University has proven
use when addressing our state’s long- and short-term economic needs.”
to be the most reliable
The Real Estate Center is
source of information on
the nation’s largest publicly
housing sales, economic
funded organization
trends, land-use initiatives,
dedicated to conducting real
trade, and several other
estate research. A little-
issues as they relate to real
known fact about the Center
A blog post on the Texas
estate and their impact
is that it is funded almost
Association of Realtors site
on the Texas economy.
entirely by Texas real estate
perhaps says it best.
This research is used by a
license fees.
“Where do you go for reliable
variety of sources—most
Editor David Jones for 40. Their longevity has brought wisdom and is at the heart of one of the key services the Center offers: experience.
OUR FRIEND, THE FED
The Center’s collaboration with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (pictured left) continued this year. Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres teamed up with Fed Economists Jesus Cañas and Keith R. Phillips to create an economic index that estimates the timing and length of future upswings and downturns in Texas residential construction. The value of the index is explained in “Home Construction Ahead: Forecasting Ups and Downs,” a Tierra Grande article (January 2016). In February, the Center cosponsored a conference with the Dallas Fed. “Finding Shelter: Assessing Texas Residential Real Estate Amid the Oil Slump” explored the trends, challenges, and outlook for the residential market with a focus on supply constraints affecting the ongoing expansion. Dr. Torres also collaborated with Enrique Martínez-García and Valerie Grossman on “Curb Your Enthusiasm: Keeping an Eye on Exuberant Home Prices,” published in the July 2016 issue of the magazine. That article prompted the International Monetary Fund Global Housing Watch newsletter to request an interview with the authors to discuss Texas home prices and how they have been affected by the oil downturn.
PUBLISHED WORKS “2015 Legislative Changes” Judon Fambrough
“Green Light on Transportation Legislation” Harold Hunt
“2016 Economic and Housing Outlook: Q&A with James Gaines” James Gaines and Bryan Pope
“Home Security: Understanding and Negotiating Title Insurance” Judon Fambrough
“A Leading Index for Texas Residential Construction” Jesus Cañas, Keith Phillips, and Luis Torres
“How the West Was Won: Selling of the Waggoner Ranch” Charles Gilliland
“Ag-Use Exemption: Fact or Fiction?” (Revised) Judon Fambrough “Curb Your Enthusiasm: Keeping an Eye on Exuberant Home Prices” Luis Torres, Enrique Martínez-García, and Valerie Grossman “East Side Story” Harold Hunt
End-of-Life Documents (Revised) Judon Fambrough
TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT JAMES P. GAINES
CHIEF ECONOMIST
WAYNE DAY
LUIS B. TORRES
RESEARCH ECONOMIST
RESEARCH ASSISTANT TECHNICAL REPORT
2 1 2 0
M A R C H 2 016
Real Estate Center: First 45 Years (Revised) David Jones “Glad You Asked: Questions from Readers” Judon Fambrough “’Good Facts’ Can Reduce Taxes” Jerrold Stern
Is There Still a Message in the Inverted Yield Curve? Luis Torres
Landlords and Tenants Guide (Revised) Judon Fambrough Landlords and Tenants Guide for Manufactured Home Communities (Revised) Judon Fambrough
TR
Monthly Review of the Texas Economy Ali Anari
Outlook for the Texas Economy Luis Torres and Wayne Day
Negative Interest Rates: Rewriting Economic Textbooks Luis Torres
“Profit Motive: Key for Part-Timers” Jerrold Stern “Real Estate Payday: Texans’ Compensation Competitive” Ali Anari
“Nonresidential Construction and the Texas Business Cycle” Luis Torres and Harold Hunt
“Regional Contribution of Texas’ Home Sales Recovery from the Great Recession” Ali Anari
“Not Back Yet: Some States Still Lagging After Great Recession” Harold Hunt and Luis Torres
Obtaining a Texas Real Estate License (Revised) Judon Fambrough
“Rent: Natural Vacancy Rates in Major Texas Markets” Ali Anari and Harold Hunt “Sizing Up Surveys” Rusty Adams “Surface Tension: Accommodation of the Estate Doctrine” Judon Fambrough
JULY 2016 ™
JOURNAL OF THE REAL ESTATE CENTER AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
LANDLORDS “Tax or Consequences” _ AND TENANTS Charles Gilliland G U I D E
MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITIES J U D O N F A M B R O U G H • AT T O R N E Y AT L A W
No_ 1549 S P E C I A L
R E P O R T
SEPTEMBER 2016
“Tax Rules for Vacation Home Sales” Jerrold Stern
Texas Housing Insight James Gaines, Luis Torres, and Wayne Day The Texas Deer Lease (Revised) Judon Fambrough Tierra Grande, Vol. 22-4 — October Tierra Grande, Vol. 23-1 — January Tierra Grande, Vol. 23-1 — April Tierra Grande, Vol. 23-1 — July
“Trends: Texas Commercial Real Estate” Luis Torres and Harold Hunt “Oil Price Collapse: Is the Worst of Its Impact Over?” Ali Anari, James Gaines, Luis Torres, and Harold Hunt “Oil’s Impact on Midland and Odessa Housing” Harold Hunt “On the Rise: Abundant Land Keeps Texas Flexible” Ali Anari
“Water Planning and Groundwater Management” Charles Gilliland “What’s in Your Wallet? Texans’ Income Fares Well During Oil Busts and Booms” Luis Torres and Wayne Day
AWARDS As mentioned in the
Tierra Grande, the Real
Silver Quill Awards from
director’s message, the
Estate Red Zone podcast,
the IABC Southern Region,
Real Estate Center’s Tierra
and the 2014–15 Annual
which includes 13 states,
Grande magazine won
Report+Calendar also won
the Caribbean, and Latin
an international award
Bronze Quill Awards from
America.
this year, the Gold Quill,
the Houston chapter and
which is the highest honor awarded by the International Association of Business Communicators (IABC).
The magazine is executed to a high standard. This was an excellent team effort and kudos to the team for managing their budgets and producing the product on deadline;” and “It is nice to see that based on the measurable feedback available, the audience clearly likes the publication or they wouldn’t have almost 100% reading at least one article. - IABC Awards judge
DON’T WORRY, BE HAPPY contenders for favorite Texas
To celebrate Happy’s win,
small-town name.
Center Senior Editor David
Cut and Shoot came in a distant second with 30 percent of the votes followed by Dime Box with 19
The Real Estate Center’s summer-long online poll, “Small Towns, Great Names,” was intended as a fun way of drawing attention to the state’s rich legacy of interesting small-town names. The Panhandle city of Happy overwhelmingly beat out more than 120 other
Jones visited “the town without a frown” and presented a certificate to Mayor Sara Tirey.
percent. A couple of towns
Tirey told Jones she first
that didn’t quite make the
learned about the contest
grade are worth mentioning
through her children in
nonetheless for sheer
Dallas, who kept her posted
creativity: Granny’s Neck and
as Happy advanced through
Lick Skillet.
the various rounds. She said
A number of radio stations around the state got into the spirit, promoting the poll on their Twitter feeds. Bryan-
there were so many towns in the contest, she really didn’t think they would make it to the finals, much less win.
College Station’s WTAW even
“I guess folks just want to be
devoted whole segments to
Happy,” she said.
the contest on its morning show.
A representative of Habitat for Humanity in Granbury wrote to say he was interested in purchasing more copies of the Center’s English-Spanish Glossary. “About one-fourth of our applicants and families are more comfortable reading legal documents in Spanish than English. English is the language of our country, and while we think we do these families no favors by making it easier for them not to learn English, on a matter as important as the purchase of a home, we believe it necessary that they understand as much as possible about the real estate transaction. We have found the bilingual glossaries produced by TAMU very useful for these families.”
POPULAR PUBLICATIONS • Outlook for the Texas Economy
• Monthly Review of the Texas Economy • Texas Housing Insight • Obtaining a Texas Real Estate License • “How the West Was Won: Selling of the Waggoner Ranch” • “Profitability of Texas Homes” • Landlords and Tenants Guide • “Oil Price Collapse: Is the Worst of Its Impact Over?” • “Home Security: Understanding and Negotiating Title Insurance” • “Oil’s Impact on Midland and Odessa Housing” • “2015 Legislative Changes” • “Trends: Texas Commercial Real Estate” • “Rent: Natural Vacancy Rates in Major Texas Markets” • “Tax or Consequences” • “Curb Your Enthusiasm: Keeping an Eye on Home Prices” • “Going Up? What Mortgage Rate Changes Mean for Homebuyers” • “IRS Audits Intensify” • “Modular Housing” • “What’s in Your Wallet? Texans’ Income Fares Well During Oil Busts and Booms” • The Texas Deer Lease
THE COWBOY RIDES AWAY The most prolific author in
on Negotiating an Oil and
Landlords and Tenants Guide
the 45-year history of the
Gas Lease was first printed in
also has two distinct sets of
Real Estate Center retired
1980. Since then, it has been
admirers and detractors.
this year.
revised many times and is
As the Center’s legal expert, Judon Fambrough answered thousands of emails, letters, and telephone calls from Texans seeking advice. He traveled the state delivering lectures on property rights,
researching articles, he
popular. A revision of his
found many discrepancies
Landlords and Tenants Guide
in the law and frequently
was posted online recently
pointed them out. He was
and quickly shot into the
among the first, for example,
Center’s top ten downloads
to discuss wind rights.
for the month.
including oil and gas, wind
Among his other “best
power, hunting leases, and
sellers” are The Texas Deer
landowner liability.
Lease and Obtaining a Texas
Judon authored some 300
Judon was a visionary. While
still among the Center’s most
Judon has bought a farm in his home state of Missouri. We wish him all the best as he rides the range on
Real Estate License.
his tractor. We could not
Center publications, many of
Who “likes” a Judon article
let him ride into the sunset
them consistently among the
sometimes depends on
without thanking him for his
most downloaded from the
whose ox is getting gored.
contributions to the Center
Center’s website. His Hints
Landowners love his Hints on
and for his service to our
Negotiating an Oil and
nation for which he was
Gas Lease, oil companies
awarded two Purple Hearts,
not so much. One Texas
a Bronze Star, and a Silver
oil baron tried to get his
Star while serving in Viet Nam.
employment at Texas A&M terminated. As the
Happy trails, Judon.
name suggests, Judon’s
I am a civilian legal assistance attorney at Fort Bliss, Texas. While preparing a training briefing for my office, I came across your
Landlords and Tenants Guide. It is fabulous! I wish I had known about this when I started handling landlord/tenant issues earlier in my career.
Mr. Fambrough, I took your agricultural law course during the spring of my junior year in 1978 and enjoyed it very much. Many of the things that you discussed tonight came back to me, so you must have been a good teacher to get that info into my hard head. That information has served me well over the years, and I wanted to take this opportunity to express my appreciation to you for your dedication, time, and efforts as an instructor. I always enjoyed visiting with you when I would come by your office with a question. You always had time and a genuine interest. I graduated in the spring of 1979 and then spent the next 34 years as a high school agricultural sciences teacher/FFA advisor.
SOCIAL MEDIA CONNECTION The Center’s social media
At one point, a Real Estate
In many cases, infographics
activity is increasing every
Center media tweet focused
can make ideas and statistics
day, meaning that our
on a visa status that was
accessible to a broader
messages are reaching
proving to be confusing for
audience.
significantly more people
many readers.
than in the past. Several of
So Adams and
our students—Hayley Rieder,
Gillin took on
RECON intern, and Camilla
the challenge of
Adams and Heather Gillin,
making it clearer.
The Center tweeted a great infographic on when permits are needed in the city of Houston. Is it possible to get this image?
NewsTalk Texas interns— have been key in every step of the process, from creating some of the Center’s social
@reccommunications 275 subscribers
media accounts, to creating infographics, and recording podcast “ads” that promote other Center publications
@tex.rec 148 followers
@realestatecenter 2,463 friends
and products.
@texrec 14,600 followers
txrec.io/2gpQOCv 392 followers
42 Edie (Craig), the work you and your NewsTalk Texas team at the Center do is
14
21
JUDON
FAMBROUGH JAMES
143
MALER
on NewsTalk Texas catching up and reading articles.
29
Thank you for all you do!
BROKER RESPONSIBILITY TRAINING DECEMBER 2015 - 20 ATTENDEES
26th ANNUAL OUTLOOK FOR TEXAS MARKETS APRIL 2016 - 447 ATTENDEES
LEGAL UPDATE TRAINING 357 ATTENDEES
19th ANNUAL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE COURSE OCTOBER 2015 - 129 ATTENDEES
FORT WORTH COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SUMMIT SEPTEMBER 2015 - 42 ATTENDEES
29th ANNUAL LEGAL SEMINAR ON AD VALOREM TAXATION SEPTEMBER 2015 - 449 ATTENDEES
TORRES DENISE
WHISENANT
HUNT
almost two hours
LUIS
PRESENTATIONS HAROLD
Saturday, I spent
8
KLASSEN
GAINES
GARY
incredible. On
GERALD
CHARLES
GILLILAND
11
5
I always tell people involved with land transactions that if I only had enough money to make one meeting a year it would be the annual Outlook for Rural Land Markets put on each year by the Real Estate Center. The Center is one of the best kept secrets in the state, and all of the people involved in it are top-rated industry experts. Their articles are timely and informative and their data is the best in the state.
13
INFORMATION FOR ALL MySanAntonio.com has a feature called “Ask George & Chuck.” One reader asked, “Where can I find reliable housing statistics for the Texas market?” How did Chuck and George respond? “The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University has enough statistics on this to fill a bathtub. Go to its web site, www.recenter.tamu.edu, and have at it.” A professor of economics from Madrid, Spain, wrote to ask for a copy of one of the Center’s publications. What was unusual about his request is that the report he wanted was published in 1978. It took a bit of digging through our archives, but we found the report and sent a pdf of it to him. The title? “Market Value versus Use Value of Agricultural Land in Texas.”
HOUSTON 30 DALLAS 12 FORT WORTH 11
AUSTIN 20 PRESENTATIONS BY LOCATION
SAN ANTONIO 13 OTHER 32
EL PASO OUT OF STATE 4 3
Dr. Gaines, we met and have visited at the Ad
Valorem Taxation Seminars in San Antonio. You are one of the most interesting and effective presenters I have encountered in my rather lengthy life. It is obvious that you have more than a little knowledge and background as well as a keen sense of humor.
OUR NEW WEBSITE Three months after our redesigned website debuted, we asked users
what they thought about it. A majority of readers responded positively.
I like the new website. I like the way Much cleaner to
things are organized and presented
navigate. Good
on the home page. And the drop
redesign.
down menus at the top make it easy to find what you are looking for.
I am a new real estate agent and find that your website is extremely important in my job to gain knowledge to pass to my clients. It is easy to navigate, and
Informative and well designed.
I find the information I need.
Easy to use and looks great. I like that you can filter the news and research results by topic or by area.
Great, easy to read. I like the way it is formatted with cities and regions. I can go directly to the areas that are of interest to me.
Love it! As a Texas Realtor, recenter.tamu.edu is my "go to" Attractive and convenient.
resource for state and local area real estate information. I also share these articles and valuable data with my clients.
WEB CONTENT MANAGEMENT In September, the Real
warehouse. New geographies
impact of the 2013 fertilizer
Estate Center launched its
for political districts, school
plant explosion in the city
new website and content
districts, and neighborhoods
of West on residential
management platform.
were added to the database.
real estate and found no
This platform vastly
Housing statistics for these
statistically significant
improves the ability of the
geographies will help policy
impact. In another study,
communications team to
makers remain informed
the Center provided data to
release news stories and
about real estate in their
evaluate the effectiveness
articles on a timelier basis
local areas of jurisdiction
of the City of Houston’s
according to a “digital first” strategy. That means articles are released digitally on the website first rather than waiting for the quarterly
Tierra Grande magazine. The platform also represents the Center’s first foray into cloud computing. It is hosted in Microsoft’s Azure cloud
New statistics by price cohort for all geographies
The Center continued to build on the capabilities of its Texas housing data
program inside Loop 610.
also were added to the data
The Center also started
warehouse. Price cohort
delivering monthly and
statistics are informative
quarterly data files to the
because they highlight
Texas Association of Realtors
the differences in market
for use in generating media-
conditions between houses
friendly infographics for all
in different price segments.
MLS boards in Texas. Many
The Center used the housing
environment.
homeownership assistance
data warehouse to support research and reporting. One study examined the
MLS boards are using these infographics to inform the media about local real estate markets and to disseminate information to MLS members.
PRODUCED BY THE REAL ESTATE CENTER AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY © 2016 The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, 1700 Research Parkway, Suite 200, College Station, TX 77843-2115
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12
05
29
Tuesday
FIRST QUARTER MOON
NEW MOON
LAST QUARTER MOON
FULL MOON
3/16 Hole for hanging Set 3/16 inch from edge.
4
27
20
13
6
30
Wednesday
SEPTEMBER 2017
5
AUGUST 2017 1 2 6 7 8 9 13 14 15 16 20 21 22 23 27 28 29 30
6
29
First Day of Fall
Rosh Hashana
28
22
15
08
1
3 4 5 10 11 12 17 18 19 24 25 26 31
Friday
21
14
07
31
Thursday
Saturday
OCTOBER 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
7
Yom Kippur
30
23
16
09
02
JP BEATO III
oak tree swing near Piano Bridge, Schulenburg
09 9
08
16
23
30
6
15
22
29
05 5
www.recenter.tamu.edu
Monday
Columbus Day
02
1
Sunday
7
Halloween
31
24
17
10
03
Tuesday
OCTOBER 2017
3/16 Hole for hanging Set 3/16 inch from edge.
8
01 1
25
18
11
4
Wednesday
9
2
26
19
12
5
NEW MOON
LAST QUARTER MOON
FULL MOON
Thursday
3 4 5 6 7 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28
1 2 8 9 15 16 22 23 29 30
FIRST QUARTER MOON
SEPTEMBER 2017
10
3
27
20
13
06
Friday
Saturday
NOVEMBER 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
11
4
28
21
14
07
JAMES PHARAON
sagebrush and ocotillo bloom, Chisos Mountains
www.recenter.tamu.edu
3
4
27
26
FIRST QUARTER MOON
20
19
5
28
21
14
13
12
7
31
Tuesday
Election Day
6
5
Monday
Daylight Saving Time Ends
30
29
Sunday
3/16 Hole for hanging Set 3/16 inch from edge.
6
29
22
15
8
1
Wednesday
NOVEMBER 2017
7
30
Thanksgiving
23
16
9
2
Thursday
5 6 7 12 13 14 19 20 21 26 27 28
LAST QUARTER MOON
OCTOBER 2017 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 11 15 16 17 18 22 23 24 25 29 30 31
8
1
24
17
10
3
Friday
NEW MOON
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
DECEMBER 2017
9
2
25
18
FULL MOON
Saturday
Veterans Day
11
4
JP BEATO III
sunset, corn fields along the Brazos River
www.recenter.tamu.edu
31
1
NEW MOON
Monday
Christmas
25
24
11
18
LAST QUARTER MOON
17
10
4
03 3
FULL MOON
27
26
Sunday
2
26
19
12
05
28
FIRST QUARTER MOON
Tuesday
Wednesday
3/16 Hole for hanging Set 3/16 inch from edge.
3
27
20
Hanukkah
13
06
29
DECEMBER 2017
4
28
First Day of Winter
21
14
07
30
Thursday
6 JANUARY 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NOVEMBER 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
30
23
16
09
02
Saturday
5
29
22
15
08
01
Friday
GREG COOKSEY
windmill in prairie grasses
C ALE NDAR 2017