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Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Australian prospects for multinational drugmakers are mixed. In the first quarter of the year it was announced that eight medicines would not be included in the country's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), which accounts for 75% of medicine spending, until 2013. On a more positive note, however, the second quarter of 2011 saw 13 drugs approved for inclusion on the PBS from September 2011, allowing patients to access these drugs at a significantly lower cost. Having a drug listed means consistent high volume sales for these companies. Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.41bn (US$11.41bn) in 2010 to AUD12.38bn (US$12.63bn) in 2011; -0.3% in local currency terms and 10.7% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. - Healthcare: AUD123.07bn (US$113.10bn) in 2010 to AUD129.04bn (US$131.65bn) in 2011; +4.8% in local currency terms and 16.4% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. - Medical devices: AUD5.28bn (US$4.85bn) in 2010 to AUD5.60bn (US$5.71bn) in 2011; +6.0% in local currency terms and 17.6% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. Business Environment Rating: In BMI's Q411 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Australia is placed in third position in the regional matrix, scoring an above-average score of 65.2. Its Country Rewards score (80) is the highest in Asia Pacific, primarily due to significant urbanisation and the high prevalence of elderly people. Australia also posts the second highest score in Asia Pacific for Country Risks (behind only New Zealand), which comprises economic structure, policy continuity, bureaucracy, legal framework and corruption. Key Trends & Developments - In July 2011, the Australian government issued draft terms of reference for a strategic review of health and medical research in Australia. The strategic review of health and medical research will focus on optimising Australia's capacity to produce world-class health and medical research up to 2020, taking into account broader government policies in fiscal and other areas. BMI Economic View: The Australian economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q, seasonally adjusted) in Q410, dragged down by weak performance in both investment and private consumption, a trend we believe will remain prevalent in 2011. Full-year growth came in at 2.7% (slightly lower than our estimate of 2.8%) and should decelerate to 2.4% and 2.6% respectively in 2011 and 2012 respectively. BMI Political View: The Liberal-National coalition's dramatic victory in the New South Wales state election raises the probability that independent members of parliament (MPs) friendly to the incumbent Australian Labour Party (ALP) would switch sides. With only a one-seat majority in parliament, the risk of a collapse of the incumbent government has risen significantly, which would have broad-based implications for national issues such as broadband connectivity, carbon tax and industrial relations.
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Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 (From Issuu)
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