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Australia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI View: Australian prospects for multinational drugmakers are mixed. In the first quarter of the year it was announced that eight medicines would not be included in the country's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), which accounts for 75% of medicine spending, until 2013. On a more positive note, however, the second quarter of 2011 saw 13 drugs approved for inclusion on the PBS from September 2011, allowing patients to access these drugs at a significantly lower cost. Having a drug listed means consistent high volume sales for these companies. Headline Expenditure Projections - Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.41bn (US$11.41bn) in 2010 to AUD12.38bn (US$12.63bn) in 2011; -0.3% in local currency terms and 10.7% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. - Healthcare: AUD123.07bn (US$113.10bn) in 2010 to AUD129.04bn (US$131.65bn) in 2011; +4.8% in local currency terms and 16.4% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. - Medical devices: AUD5.28bn (US$4.85bn) in 2010 to AUD5.60bn (US$5.71bn) in 2011; +6.0% in local currency terms and 17.6% in US dollar terms. Our forecast remains broadly unchanged. Business Environment Rating: In BMI's Q411 Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs), Australia is placed in third position in the regional matrix, scoring an above-average score of 65.2. Its Country Rewards score (80) is the highest in Asia Pacific, primarily due to significant urbanisation and the high prevalence of elderly people. Australia also posts the second highest score in Asia Pacific for Country Risks (behind only New Zealand), which comprises economic structure, policy continuity, bureaucracy, legal framework and corruption. Key Trends & Developments - In July 2011, the Australian government issued draft terms of reference for a strategic review of health and medical research in Australia. The strategic review of health and medical research will focus on optimising Australia's capacity to produce world-class health and medical research up to 2020, taking into account broader government policies in fiscal and other areas. BMI Economic View: The Australian economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q, seasonally adjusted) in Q410, dragged down by weak performance in both investment and private consumption, a trend we believe will remain prevalent in 2011. Full-year growth came in at 2.7% (slightly lower than our estimate of 2.8%) and should decelerate to 2.4% and 2.6% respectively in 2011 and 2012 respectively. BMI Political View: The Liberal-National coalition's dramatic victory in the New South Wales state election raises the probability that independent members of parliament (MPs) friendly to the incumbent Australian Labour Party (ALP) would switch sides. With only a one-seat majority in parliament, the risk of a collapse of the incumbent government has risen significantly, which would have broad-based implications for national issues such as broadband connectivity, carbon tax and industrial relations.
Table of Content Executive Summary SWOT Analysis
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Australia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT Australia Political SWOT
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Australia Business Environment SWOT
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Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
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Table: Asia Pacific ' Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q411 Rewards Risks
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Australia - Market Summary
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Regulatory Regime
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OTC Switching Climate
15
Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
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Recent Regulatory Developments
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Intellectual Property Issues
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Trade Agreements
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Pricing and Reimbursement
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Table: Historical PBS Co-payments Price Cuts
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Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments Table New PBS Formularies
23
Industry Trends and Developments
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Epidemiology
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Communicable Diseases
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Mental Health Issues E-Health
. 22
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Prescribing Patterns
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Biotechnology and Research
30
Recent Developments in the Biotechnology Sector Clinical Trials
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Recent Developments in the Clinical Trials Industry Medical Device Market
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Table Examples Of Medical Devices Classifications Industry Forecast Scenario Overall Market Forecast
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Table: Australia Pharmaceutical Sales ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Growth Factors ' Industry
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Table: Australia Healthcare Expenditure ' Historical Data and Forecasts Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic
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Table: Australia - Economic Activity, 2007-2015 Prescription Drug Market Forecast
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Table: Australia Prescription Drug Market ' Historical Data and Forecasts Patented Drug Market Forecast
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Table: Australia Patented Drug Market ' Historical Data and Forecasts Generic Drug Market Forecast
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Table: Australia Generic Drug Market ' Historical Data and Forecasts OTC Medicine Market Forecast
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Table: Over-the-counter (OTC) medicine sales
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Table: Pharmacy OTC Medicine Sales In Australia (US$), 2008 Medical Device Market Forecast Table: Pharmaceutical sales
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Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
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Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario Competitive Landscape
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Pharmaceutical Industry
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Recent Company Developments
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Pharmaceutical Distribution
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Table - Top 20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers by Value from Processed Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) Prescriptions in FY08/09** . 64 Table - Top 20 Pharmaceutical Suppliers by Volume from Processed Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) Prescriptions in FY2008/09** . 65 Company Profiles
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Sigma
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Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API) Alphapharm (incorporated by Mylan) Herron Pharmaceuticals CSL
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Sanofi-Aventis
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GlaxoSmithKline
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Merck & Co Glossary BMI Methodology
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Mayne (Hospira)
Novartis
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How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology Ratings Overview
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Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators Weighting
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Table: Weighting Of Components Sources
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