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Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary BMI forecasts that Italy will account for 12.37% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2015, while contributing 4.25% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption in 2010 was an estimated 13.02mn barrels per day (b/d). It is set to recover to around 13.18mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 averaged an estimated 4.40mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.53mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2015, they are expected to have reached 9.65mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. Italy's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 17.29%, while it contributed around 2.93% to production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 17.41%, with a 2.76% contribution to regional supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. Italian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.2% in 2010. We are forecasting 1.7% average annual growth in 2011-2015. By 2015, we expect to see the country consuming 1.52mn b/d of oil. A rise in near-term domestic oil production is also expected. We are assuming oil production of 150,000b/d in 2015, but imports are set to reach 1.37mn b/d. Use of gas in power generation is the key to demand growth and consumption looks set to reach 85.6bcm by 2015. Imports are likely to hit 78.6bcm at this stage. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Italian oil production of 15.1%, with output peaking at 165,000b/d in 2013 before slipping to 90,000b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.57%, imports can also be expected to rise from an estimated 1.44mn b/d in 2010 to 1.42mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 76.1bcm to 94.6bcm by 2020. Production of an estimated 7.6bcm in 2010 is expected to fall to 5.0bcm by 2020, requiring imports up from 68.5bcm to 89.6bcm, in the form of pipeline gas and LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Italy's long-term political risk score is 80.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 61.6, below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. Italy has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a significant upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic and foreign operators. Downstream oil is highly competitive and involves a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and domestic companies. Both the gas and power markets are privatised and open to
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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Table of Content Executive Summary
... 5
SWOT Analysis
.... 7
Italy Political SWOT
7
Italy Economic SWOT
..... 7
Italy Energy Market Overview
.. 8
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 11
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 11
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 12
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 13
. 14
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 15
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 16
. 17
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario
.... 17
.... 18
Oil And Gas Reserves
. 18
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 18
Gas Supply And Demand LNG
.. 14
... 15
... 19
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 20
Revenues/Import Costs
22
Table: Italy Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
Table: Italy Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
..... 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 29 29
Table: Refineries In Italy Service Stations
..... 29 .... 30
Oil Storage Facilities
.. 30
Oil Terminals/Ports Oil Pipelines LNG Terminals
.... 30 . 31 .... 31
Gas Storage Facilities Gas Pipelines Macroeconomic Outlook
. 33 33 . 38
Table: Italy - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape
Italy Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
. 27
... 27
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook Oil Refineries
.. 23
25
. 40 .. 41
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Executive Summary
..... 41
Table: Key Players ' Italian Energy Sector Overview/State Role
..... 42
.... 43
Licensing And Regulation
.... 43
Government Policy
43
Table: Key Upstream Players
..... 45
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Eni
45
..... 46 .. 46
Royal Dutch Shell ERG
52 55
Po Valley Energy
. 58
ExxonMobil ' Summary
62
Enel ' Summary
..... 62
Petroceltic ' Summary
.. 63
Mediterranean Oil and Gas ' Summary
... 64
Total ' Summary
.... 65
Saras ' Summary
... 65
Lukoil ' Summary
.. 66
Northern Petroleum ' Summary
. 66
AuDax Resources/Kairiki Energy ' Summary Others ' Summary
.. 68
. 69
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 70
. 70
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 70
.... 71
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
71
...... 72
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
... 72
73
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
73
... 74
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Italy Country Overview Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms BMI Methodology
... 74
...... 74 74
... 76 ..... 77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
...... 77
..... 77
Cross Checks
.. 78
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
..... 78
Table: Structure Of BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings Indicators
. 80
. 80
Table: BMI's Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology Table: BMI's Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings ' Methodology Sources
. 80 .... 81
.... 83
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