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Norway Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Published on August 2011
Report Summary The latest Norway Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.8% of regional oil consumption by 2015, while accounting for 52.7% of supply. In Developed Europe, overall regional oil demand was an estimated 12.99mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2010 and is set to recover slightly to 13.02mn b/d in 2011, before climbing to 13.17mn b/d by 2015. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and estimated 4.33mn b/d in 2010, slipping to a forecast 4.20mn b/d in 2011 and potentially dropping to just 3.51mn b/d in 2015. Regional net imports are set to rise from an estimated 8.66mn b/d in 2010 to 9.66mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a growing net importer. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region consumed an estimated 428bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 468bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.4% growth. Production of an estimated 251bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 249bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 176bcm to some 219bcm by the end of the period. Norway's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 1.0%, while it accounted for 42.3% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.1%, while its share of production will be 46.6%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/barrel (bbl) and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. BMI assumes that Norwegian real GDP rose by 0.4% in 2010. We are forecasting 2.1% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Recent (January 2011) Norwegian oil and liquids production has averaged 2.15mn b/d. We expect the country's 2011 oil and liquids production to be about 2mn b/d, down from an estimated 2.14mn b/d in 2010. By 2015, liquids volumes look set to slip to 1.85mn b/d. Oil demand could rise to 242,000b/d by 2015, implying that net exports will slip from 1.9mn b/d in 2010 to 1.61mn b/d by the end of the period. 2010 gas production of 106.4bcm should continue to rise towards at least 116bcm by 2015. Rising domestic gas consumption, from 4.1bcm to 4.5bcm over 2010-2015, suggests that net exports will rise to 111.5bcm by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in Norwegian oil production of 29.8%, with output slipping steadily from 2.13mn b/d in 2010 to 1.5mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption over the period is also expected to fall, slipping 3.8%, resulting in a decline in exports from 1.90mn b/d to 1.27mn b/d by 2020. Gas production should rise from106.4bcm to a peak of 116bcm in 2015, before falling to 100bcm by 2020. Most exports will continue to be in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, Norway's long-term political risk score is 98.0 out of 100, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 71.7, above the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of the national oil company Statoil, formed in 2007 through a merger of Statoil and the oil and gas interests of Norsk Hydro. Norway
Norway Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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>> Get this Report Now by email! has a major, but mature and highly competitive, upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and deregulated.
Table of Content Executive Summary
... 7
SWOT Analysis
.... 9
Norway Political SWOT
.. 9
Norway Economic SWOT
...... 9
Norway Energy Market Overview
. 10
Regional Energy Market Overview
...... 12
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 12
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
... 13
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d) Oil: Downstream
...... 14
. 15
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Gas Supply And Demand
... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
...... 16
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm) Liquefied Natural Gas
.. 17
. 18
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm) Industry Forecast Scenario
. 19
Oil Supply And Demand
..... 20
Gas Supply And Demand
... 22
23
Refining And Oil Products Trade
..... 23
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Table: Norway Oil And Gas ' Historical Data And Forecasts Other Energy
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
..... 26
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
..... 27
Oil Refineries
27
Table: Refineries In Norway
27
Service Stations
.... 28 28 . 28
LNG Terminals
.... 28
Table: LNG Terminals In Norway
..... 28
Gas Processing Plants Gas Pipelines
... 25
... 25
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil Pipelines
..... 24
25
Table: Norway Other Energy ' Historical Data And Forecasts
Oil Terminals
.... 18
.... 19
Oil And Gas Reserves
LNG
.. 15
29 30
Macroeconomic Outlook Table: Norway ' Economic Activity
Norway Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
. 31 ... 33
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>> Get this Report Now by email! Table: Norway Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts Competitive Landscape
.. 34
Executive Summary
..... 34
Table: Key Players ' Norwegian Oil And Gas Sector Overview/State Role
... 35
.... 35
Licensing And Regulation
.... 35
Government Policy
36
Licensing Rounds
... 38
International Energy Relations
... 40
Table: Key Upstream Players
..... 42
Table: Key Downstream Players Company Monitor Statoil
.. 33
42
..... 43 ..... 43
ExxonMobil
... 53
Total E&P Norge Norske Shell
. 56 .. 59
ConocoPhillips
.... 62
BP ' Summary
65
Gassco ' Summary Eni ' Summary
65 66
Marathon Oil ' Summary
.... 67
Det Norske Oljeselskap ' Summary
... 67
Lundin Petroleum ' Summary
..... 69
DONG Energy ' Summary
... 71
Centrica ' Summary
..... 72
BG Group ' Summary
... 72
Wintershall Norge ' Summary OMV ' Summary
.... 72 .... 72
Faroe Petroleum ' Summary
...... 73
RWE Dea ' Summary
... 73
Petoro ' Summary
. 74
Norwegian Energy Company (Noreco) ' Summary Talisman Energy ' Summary
74
...... 75
Others ' Summary
. 75
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts Regional Oil Demand
.... 77
. 77
Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) Regional Oil Supply
.... 77
.... 78
Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Refining Capacity
78
...... 79
Table: Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) Regional Gas Demand
80
Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) Regional Gas Supply
80
... 81
Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm) Norway Country Overview
... 81
. 81
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts Glossary Of Terms
... 79
82
... 83
Norway Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 (From Issuu)
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.... 84
.. 84
Ratings Overview
. 84
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure Indicators
.... 85
...... 86
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology BMI Methodology
..... 87
..... 89
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts Energy Industry
.... 89
... 90
Cross Checks Sources
... 86
90 .. 90
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