Let mature debate prevail over lies, damned lies and statistics

“Ceilings and floors, my boy,” a banker once told me.

It was a phrase that baffled me well over a quarter-of-a-century ago as a trainee journalist writing about financial markets.

My topic: the inexorable rise of the Japanese stock market. In just five years the value of corporate Japan had trebled. The Nikkei stock index had soared to 39,000 and showed no sign of flagging.

“What’s ceilings and floors?” I asked.

“Don’t you know anything?” laughed the banker with just the right measure of scorn. “Once the price of the index hits its ceiling, then it’s the floor for its next rise. The only way is up. I expect to see the Nikkei at 40,000 in three months.”

As financial bubbles go Japan’s bubble was spectacular.

At one time the price of the land in the Imperial Palace in the heart of Tokyo was so inflated that, if you could have sold it, you would have had enough money to buy Canada. (And that’s including everything inside Canada too.)

And then came the crash. Floors dropped through ceilings. And then fell through floors again, inexorably downwards.

That same stock index just 12 months later was down at 22,000 — $2 trillion of value had dropped in the value of corporate Japan.

And, to make the point more brutally, that same index 33 years afterwards is standing at an average of 25,600 for this April.

So why mention all this in a magazine dedicated to reporting about batteries and the energy storage industry?

What’s true about financial markets is equally true about commercial ones.

This is now a key issue at the heart of the lead battery and energy storage markets. Very simply, the forces of hype and unreality loom large over the entire energy storage market — and vast swathes of information, misinformation, and disinformation are at play.

A quick glance at the world of start-ups reveals a huge number of extravagant claims about various technologies — many of which have yet even to leave the laboratory bench — which may or may not be true.

It’s in the nature of start-ups to boast technologies that are up-and-ready while still not finalized. But frankly they can’t all be true and we all know it.

Then there’s informed opinion.

One sector of the industry reckons that lead batteries are yesterday’s technology (and suppliers are moving away from the chemistry).

Yet other suppliers are predicting that all things will be well and there are huge untapped markets in the developing world about to be tackled.

And yet others see an imminent world energy shortage crisis. Although reputable market analysts predict steady and not explosive growth for lead battery sales, other super-optimists are preaching a gospel where lead batteries will become desperately needed in our decarbonized future.

A quick glance at the world of start-ups reveals a huge number of extravagant claims about various technologies — many of which have yet even to leave the laboratory bench — which may or may not be true.

Much as I respect the people who say this — one group sees the energy storage market at 585GW by 2030, and worth between $30 billion-$50 billion and that lead batteries can capture 20% of that market. Really? It presently captures less than 1% and its market share is falling?

Looking in another direction, what this magazine finds so puzzling is why are so many players, big and small alike, so entrenched in their thinking? Where is the balanced view? Where is the mature debate?

Each year our editorial team attends literally dozens of conferences and events. We dutifully try to follow the best presentations, hear the best speakers and keep up to date with an industry that is (perversely) both slow to change yet rocketing away at an unbelievable pace.

But choose the right conference and the right speaker and you may hear that lead acid is yesterday’s news (boo-sucks from the lithium ion community) or that lithium is explosive, costly and will probably bring you out in spots (courtesy of the lead acid gentlemen).

For this magazine we deliberately have to choose a middle path. Because, despite our occasional reservations, our job is to represent what people in this business say and are thinking, not our opinions.

For a profession where its leading lights see themselves as visionaries — and sometimes quite rightly too — there needs to be more coherence in that vision.

There are a host of issues facing this industry now that need to be dealt with in a concerted fashion. For example, irrespective of any belief that lithium/lead/nickel/ something-bright-and-shiny is going to save the planet, a reasonable debate has to be conducted over issues such as recycling batteries.

At the practical level there is a very real risk of an explosion if a lithium battery is smashed in a lead acid battery breaker. The chances of this happening are growing as both types of batteries can look similar.

Other super-optimists are preaching a gospel where lead batteries will become desperately needed in our decarbonized future

At the financial level, the commercialities of a huge range of recycling options need to be faced. At present it’s clear that it’s unlikely that anyone is going to be making a profit by selling the elements from a LiFePO4 cell (and other lithium variants also have question marks over them).

Is the world really crying out for more iron, phosphorous or oxygen?

So away from the world of hype will tolling arrangements be the future for most lithium recycling? Sensible discussions are needed over what that means for lead batteries too.

Let the debates begin.

Mike Halls, Editor-in-Chief