DNT n° 11/12/13/2000 by Cilenti/Nickles REPORTAGE REPORT

HAIDER & TOURISM AUSTRIA - DAVOS WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM U.S. PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON-UK PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR - U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS n° 11-12-13/2000

4-5-6 FEBBRAIO 2000

Editors: Domenico Cilenti email: nicocilenti@gmail.com/Joan Nickles email: joannickles@gmail.com

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REPORTAGE

REPORT

Comments “The inclusion of an extreme right-wing party...in the government of a European country such as Austria should outrage every citizen of the free world.”

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak in an official statement “If...this party should take part, there is not and will not be a place for an Israeli ambassador in Austria.”

Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy

"ATTENTION Danger!

One Man can Hide Another" reads the sign at a protest rally near the Austrian embassy in Paris. Several hundred demonstraters protested against the entry of Joerg Haider's extreme-right party members into the Austrian government.

PROTESTERS holding banners climb onto the Pallas Athena statue in front of the Austrian parliament, demonstrating against a center-right coalition government between the conservative Peoples' Party and the far-right Freedom Party.

A MEMBER OF THE ULTRA-RIGHT UNA-UNSO organization waves his fist and shouts as he takes part in a meeting in front of the Austrian embassy in Kiev.

Members of UNA-UNSO (Ukraine's National Assembly and Ukraine's National Self-Defence) gathered to support the Austrian far-right Freedom Party led by Joerg Haider that won 30% of votes in the last election.

A WOMAN DISPLAYS A POSTER, in the photo below, which reads “No to Fascism” during a demonstration

A MAN HOLDS A BANNER reading: “Fascism never again” as he listens to a demonstration's leader during a protest in front of the Austrian consulate in Antwerp, northern Belgium. Some 100 people, most of them Jews, gathered to protest against comments by Austrian far-right leader Joerg Haider describing the Belgian government as corrupt.

outside the Austrian Embassy in Brussels.

“The message from the world is clear. The participation of a radical right-wing party in a democratic country in Europe will simply not be accepted. Those times are over, and I’m glad they’re over.”

EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenther Verheugen “The new Austrian coalition would force an unacceptable breach in the resistance to a resurgence of fascist ideas in Europe.”

Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel “How could we have the same trustful relations with a government that does not share the same objectives?”

French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine “This new government, which I believe is nothing but a partnership of convenience to seize power, will find it very difficult to achieve international credibility.”

Austrian Social Democrat general secretary Alfred Gusenbauer “We are not any more in a kind of European Community in which we have no principles to abide by. We are now in a European Union.”

Portuguese Secretary of State for European Affairs Francisco Seixas da Costa “Austria does not need lessons in democracy. We are not a developing country as far as human rights are concerned. Freedom and human rights are just as secure here as in all other European countries, and that’s the way it will stay.”

Austrian Chancellor-elect Wolfgang Schuessel “Mr. Haider...democratically won almost 30 percent of Austrian votes, and, according to elementary rules of democracy, he should be able to take part in a coalition government.”

French hardliner Jean Marie Le Pen’s National Front “If Austrians do not want Europeans to meddle into their political kitchen, they must understand that they’d better keep clear of poor recipes.”

French business daily La Tribune “What cheek from Brussels! It’s utter nonsense to say that Haider is a second Hitler. Why on earth do people bother voting if this is what can happen?”

Max Kainz, an Austrian farmer “To intervene at this sensitive stage, when nearly a third of voters have backed this party, is not very clever politics.”

Ingo Friedrich, German EU official

PROTESTERS WAVING RED FLAGS climb onto the Pallas Athena statue in front of the Austrian parliament, demonstrating against a center-right coalition government between the conservative Peoples' Party and the far-right Freedom Party.

“We absolutely reject the possibility of accepting that foreigners can decide over us. We must now keep a cool head but it must be totally beyond dispute that Austria can in no way yield to this pressure from abroad.”

Austrian acting Defence Minister Werner Fasslabend “I regret it very much that such a step (the threat by EU countries to isolate Austria) was taken without consulting Austria. This has never happened in the history of the EU and it contradicts, in my opinion, the spirit of the (EU) treaties.”

Austrian Chancellor-elect Wolfgang Schuessel

Austria, l’ascesa di Haider danneggia il turismo Il possibile ingresso al governo dell’estrema destra frena i visitatori stranieri

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a prospettiva che l’estrema destra possa salire al potere in Austria sta danneggiando l’industria del turismo, un caposaldo dell’economia del paese. Il Freedom Party di Joerg Haider, conosciuto all’estero per aver minimizzato i crimini nazisti, sta dialogando con i conservatori per formare un nuovo governo che potrebbe essere attivo già dalla prossima settimana. I primi effetti dell’atteggiamento xenofobo di Haider hanno cominciato a farsi sentire, soprattutto nel settore turistico. Thekla Erler, responsabile del turismo nella popolare regione tirolese di Mayrhofen dice: “Due gruppi provenienti da Israele hanno cancellato il loro soggiorno e hanno preferito andare in Italia a causa della situazione politica.

Sta succedendo con Israele e io temo che possa accadere anche con i Paesi Bassi, la nostra più grande risorsa di turisti, dopo la Germania”. Non si prevedono cancellazioni dai tedeschi, i turisti più numerosi durante l’alta stagione invernale.

L’Austria aveva già vissuto un periodo di chiusura internazionale durante la presidenza di Kurt Waldheim dal 1986 al 1992. Waldheim fu accusato di aver mentito circa il suo passato di giovane ufficiale nell’esercito tedesco nei Balcani e gli Stati Uniti gli rifiutarono l’ingresso.

Anche questa situazione danneggiò il turismo e i soggiorni dei visitatori americani precipitarono al 7,5% nel 1998.

Dopo le esportazioni industriali, il turismo è la principale fonte di valuta straniera dell’Austria. Lentamente decaduto dal 1992, negli ultimi due anni il turismo ha ripreso vigore. Nel 1999, è stato registrato un incremento di presenze del 2,2% anche grazie a delle intense nevicate che hanno permesso di aprire gli impianti sportivi prima del solito. La stagione invernale provvede più della metà delle entrate del turismo austriaco. Nel 1998-99 i ricavi del turismo invernale hanno raggiunto i 7,52 bilioni di dollari.

La Camera del Commercio austriaca ritiene che la reazione alla prospettiva di Haider al governo sia esagerata. Sembra che l’elezione di Haider come governatore della Carinzia lo scorso anno, non abbia danneggiato il turismo locale. Michael Raffling, responsabile del turismo della Camera di Commercio, ha detto che i turisti sono stati felici di visitare diversi paesi a prescindere da chi era al governo.

Intanto, il presidente austriaco Thomas Klestil ha dichiarato: “I nostri amici in Europa possono stare sicuri che i valori dell’Europa comune, come la democrazia e il pluralismo, continueranno ad essere applicati”.

Austria’s 14 European Union partners on Monday took the unprecedented step of threatening the country with political sanctions if the far right were allowed to join its governing coalition. In a statement issued by EU president Portugal, Austria’s allies said they would freeze all bilateral political contacts, limit the role of Vienna’s ambassadors in their capitals and not back any Austrian candidacy for international organizations. “The governments of the 14 member states will not promote or accept official contacts at a political level with an Austrian government which includes the FPO (Freedom Party),” it said. The EU was under mounting pressure to take a stand against Joerg Haider’s Freedom Party, which is near to closing a deal with the conservative People’s Party to form a coalition. Haider has opposed EU enlargement plans, appeared to play down Nazi crimes and is hostile to East European immigrants.

Austria’s envoy to Paris said the European Union threat to isolate his country was counterproductive and would boost those who want far-rightist Joerg Haider to join the government. “I fear that the number of those in Austria who favor such a government has increased since the threat of sanctions,” Ambassador Franz Ceska commented. Ceska called the EU threat “extraordinary and unprecedented” as it meant putting a partner in the stocks for something it had yet to do. He said Haider’s Freedom Party was leftist rather than on the extreme right. “Haider’s party is not a far-right party. It is today rather a left-wing party: 47 percent of workers vote for Haider and only 33 percent for the Socialists. This is food for thought,” he said.

AUSTRIA'S NEW CENTER-RIGHT COALITION GOVERNMENT with the People's Party (OeVP) and the Freedom Party (FPOe) pose for a family photo after they were sworn in by President Thomas Klestil February 4.

Front row(left to right): Elisabeth Sickl (FPOe, Work, Health, Social Affairs), Elisabeth Gehrer (OeVP, Education, Culture & Arts), Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel (OeVP), Susanne Riess-Passer (FPOe, Vice-Chancellor and Womens Affairs), Benita Ferrero-Waldner (OeVP, Foreign Affairs), Mares Rossmann (FPOe, Economics state secretary). 2nd row: Alfred Finz (OeVP, Finance state secretary), Karl-Heinz Grasser (FPOe, Finance), Reinhart Waneck (FPOe, Work, Health, Social Affairs state secretary), Franz Morak (OeVP, Chancellery state secretary), Michael Schmid (FPOe, Science, Infrastructure), Martin Bartenstein (OeVP, Economics), Michael Krueger (FPOe, Justice),Ernst Strasser (OeVP, Interior), Wilhelm Molterer (OeVP, Agriculture & Forestry), Herbert Scheibner (FPOe, Defence).

AUSTRIA'S FAR-RIGHT FREEDOM PARTY LEADER JOERG HAIDER waltzes with his wife Claudia at a ball organized by the Freedom Party in Klagenfurt in Austria's southern province of Carinthia after president Thomas Klestil swore in a new center-right coalition government including the Freedom Party (FPOe) and the conservative People's Party (OeVP).

JOERG HAIDER skis during his 50th birthday party in

Gerlitzen in Austria's southern province of Carinthia January 29. Haider, again brushing off international concern about the prospect of his Freedom Party entering government, said Israel and other countries should get more information about the situation in Austria. Afterwards they should make their conclusions - first to think and afterwards to speak, he said in response to a question from journalists.

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BLUE SKY AND SNOW COVERED MOUNTAINS greeted the world's corporate and poltical elite arriving for the World Economic Forum in Davos. Dozens of heads of state and hundreds of senior corporate executives are among the 3,200 participants at the summit in the chic Swiss ski resort.

Message of Prof. Klaus Schwab, Founder and President of the World Economic Forum “What we need is a close cooperation between governments and business to meet the challenges which we confront. The world is so complex that we cannot create some kind of all-encompassing business-government organization. It would lack democratic legitimacy. But what you can do is create networks, flexible networks, where you put together governments, international organizations and business to look at the new issues on the global agenda. It is also important that those

30th World

Davos

networks also integrate the best scientists and academics, because you have to put the discussion between business and government into the framework of the latest state of knowledge. You have to integrate the media because you have to make this process transparent - and you have to integrate civil society at large.”

Prof. Klaus Schwab, Founder and President of the World Economic Forum

Upcoming events: Aprile 16-18 China Business Summit 2000 Beijing, China Aprile 26-28 Eurasia Economic Summit 2000 Almaty, Kazakhstan May 7-9 Mercosur Economic Summit 2000 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil May 23-24 USA Meeting 2000 Washington, D.C.

June 21-23 Southern Africa Economic Summit 2000 Durham, South Africa June 28-30 Central and Eastern European Economic Summit 2000 Salzburg, Austria September 11-13 Asia/Pacific Economic Summit 2000 Melbourne, Australia

PEDESTRIANS walk past the brightly lit conference center; venue of the World Economic Forum, in Davos

DEMONSTRATORS BURN A U.S. FLAG as they staged a protest against the World Economic Forum in Davos the day U.S. President Bill Clinton arrived in Davos to speak to the forum.

Violence in the Swiss Alps Police and Swiss army soldiers ward off anti-globalization demonstrators

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A POLICEMAN STANDS GUARD behind a fence of barbed wire near the conference center venue of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Hundreds of Swiss police and federal army security specialists greeted the world's corporate and political elite arriving for the annual business summit.

n estimated 2,000 demonstrators bent on disrupting an exclusive business summit in the Swiss Alps smashed shop windows but failed to penetrate tight security to get near the conference center.

Police in riot gear and backed by water cannon surrounded the anti-globalization protesters, who smashed car windscreens and at the local McDonald’s restaurant in the ski resort about two hours after U.S. President Bill Clinton spoke.

One of the hundreds of police officers brought in to seal off the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting had been injured. Local police declined to give any details.

Dozens of Swiss army soldiers were on hand to support police following threats by anti-free trade groups to upset the high-profile conference, as they did a World Trade Organisation meeting in Seattle in December.

Protesters, many wearing masks over their faces, carried signs reading “Fight the WEF” and “WEF - Meeting of Murderers” as they marched towards the conference centre, which police sealed off.

Clinton was in a nearby hotel where he was meeting Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and U.S. business executives.

RIOTERS SMASH WINDOWS OF A MCDONALDS RESTAURANT

after fights broke out between police and demonstrators protesting against the World Economic Forum in Davos. The protestors, many of them wearing masks over their faces, carried signs reading “Fight the WEF” and “WEF-Meeting of Murderers”.

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4-5-6 FEBBRAIO 2000

Economic Forum U.S. Presidente Bill Clinton at Davos U.S. President Bill Clinton issued a plea to developing nations to consider trade policies to protect labor rights and the environment, issues that helped sink Seattle trade talks.

Two hours after he spoke, some 2,000 demonstrators bent on disrupting the World Economic Forum summit in this Swiss Alps ski resort smashed windows but failed to penetrate tight security to get near the conference center.

In his speech before the summit, Clinton called the protesters who disrupted Seattle “dead wrong”. “Those who wish to roll back the forces of globalization because they fear its disruptive consequences I believe are plainly wrong,” he said. “Fifty years of experience shows that greater economic integration and political cooperation are positive forces.”

Clinton used his appearance before the World Economic Forum, an annual gathering of world leaders and business executives, to promise to try to launch a new global trade round as soon as possible, after failing to do so in Seattle.

Clinton’s appeal for WTO sanctions against countries that fail to impose better protections for their workers and environment angered leaders of developing nations at the meeting of the 135-nation WTO in Seattle. They fear that costly labor and envi-

British Prime Minister Tony Blair at Davos British Prime Minister Tony Blair outlined fundamental reforms he believes are needed for the European Union to flourish. If regulation were cut to free up business and new hi-tech opportunities were embraced by the 15-nation bloc, it might even transform sceptical British attitudes to Europe, he said.

During a visit of a few hours to the Swiss resort of Davos, where politicians and corporate chiefs were gathered for the World Economic Forum annual meeting, Blair targeted the EU’s Lisbon summit in March as the key forum to decide the way ahead.

“Does Europe continue with the old social model...rooted in the ‘60s and ‘70s or does it recognise that the new economy demands a redirection of European economic policy for the future?” he asked.

“I would like to see Lisbon mark a definitive turning point towards the reform agenda.” That meant cutting red tape that tied up business, an end to big government and reform of rigid labour markets that kept unemployment levels too high, Blair said.

He restated his long-held policy on the euro — that his Labour government was in favor of joining in principle as long as the economics were right. Either way, he said, a successful euro was in Britain’ interests because it should act as a spur for price transparency that will unmask inefficiencies and boost competition.

Blair cited the experience of the United States, where he said the exploding hi-tech revolution had increased productivity growth and offered the possibility of much lower unemployment hand in hand with benign inflation.

“So far, not all of these advantages from the new economy have crossed the Atlantic,” he said. “If it does, it will make a big difference to rebuilding confidence that Europe can move forward again and it will make a big difference to British attitudes to Europe.”

European Free Trade Association (EFTA) pushes to widen the nternational links Switzerland’s Economy Minister Pascal Couchepin is spearheading a push to widen the international links of the fournation European Free Trade Association (EFTA). Couchepin, chairman for the first six months of the year of the grouping which accounts for over three percent of world trade, built contacts in talks at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

He signed an agreement with U.S. Commerce Secretary William Daley setting up a joint economic commission between the United States and Switzerland - which is linked in EFTA with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.

But in Davos, he has also met Mexico’s Commerce Minister Herminio Blanco Mendoza, whose country has just become the first in Latin America to have free trade accords with both the United States and the European Union. Officials said they discussed sending to Mexico soon an EFTA delegation headed by current Secretary General Kjartan Johannsson of Iceland and his Swiss successor William Rossier, who takes over later this year, to sound out contacts.

Couchepin has also met senior Argentine officials who went to the Forum

with the countr y’s new president Fernando de la Rua. He is to travel to Argentina and Chile in October.

The Geneva-based EFTA, created in 1960 as a counter weight to the then European Economic Community and to which at different times six of the current members of the European Union belonged, is keen for links with the South American grouping Mercosur. Argentina is a key member of the four-nation alliance linking it with Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. Chile, with Bolivia, is an associate member of Mercosur.

EFTA, three of whose members excluding Switzerland are tied to the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA), has free trade agreements with nearly all former communist and ex-Soviet states in eastern and central Europe. It also has pacts with several countries across the Mediterranean, including Morocco, Turkey and Israel, as well as the Palestinian Authority. It is also in negotiations with Tunisia, Egypt, Cyprus and Jordan.

Next month EFTA is expected to finalize a free trade accord with Canada in Ottawa — the first agreement the small but weighty grouping in sectors like

banking, insurance and shipbuilding has reached with a major trading power outside Europe.

Officials say that if this timetable is met the Canada pact - still lacking final details on market access for agricultural products and ships - would be signed at EFTA’s next ministerial meeting in Zurich in June.

Trade diplomats said EFTA was also looking to Asia and Africa for new links, adding that signals of interest had been coming from Singapore, South Korea and even Japan. Japan has long resisted bilateral free trade deals with other countries, but the collapse of a World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial meeting in Seattle that was due to launch a new global trade round appears to have brought a change.

Swiss officials said South Africa’s Trade Minister Alec Erwin, who has been voicing growing frustration over delays in finalizing a free trade pact with the EU, had told Couchepin in Davos he wanted to get talks going with EFTA. The officials said preliminary contacts were now set to begin next month, with the first formal negotiations later in the year.

ronmental protection will increase the costs of their exports and make them less competitive in the markets of rich countries.

Clinton said developing nations should be able to achieve growth without making the mistakes the developed countries made on their own paths to industrialization.

“I know that the words ‘labor and environment’ are heard with suspicion in the developing world when they are uttered by people in the developed world. I understand that these words are code for rich country protectionism. “So let me be as clear as possible on this. We shouldn’t do anything to stunt the economic growth and development of any developing nations. I have never asked any developing nations, and never will, to give up a more prosperous future,” he said.

But he added: “We simply cannot expect trade alone to carry the burden of lifting nations out of poverty. It will not happen.”

Clinton urged the WTO to answer protesters by making more documents public more quickly and opening up dispute hearings.

“The more we hunker down and refuse to devote time systematically to discussing these issues and letting people express their honest opinions, the more we are going to fuel the fires of protectionism, not put them out,” he said.

To reach the World Economic Forum,

The Tecnology Gap “In Europe, e-business is a revolution waiting to happen” Chief executives from major global companies are overwhelmingly upbeat about business prospects over the next three years as the Internet reshapes the competitive landscape.

But European CEOs are worried that they were falling behind their U.S. counterparts in the race to make the Internet the key way to make business boom, reported a survey released at Davos.

The survey also found half of CEOs thought the Internet would widen the gap between rich and poor countries, but 38 percent took the opposite view.

The third annual poll of more than 1,000 business leaders, released at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting of political and business bigwigs, underscored optimism about the communications and technology sectors.

Nine of out 10 executives were either extremely or somewhat optimistic about overall medium-term growth prospects, according to the survey by the Forum and the Pricewaterhouse/Coopers professional services group.

Bolstered by the technology-led boom in the United States, North American bosses had the highest hopes. The poll found 42 percent extremely optimistic and 55 percent somewhat so.

Only 21 percent of corporate chiefs in Asia were extremely optimistic, “but the large contingent of CEOs (63 percent) who are ‘somewhat’ optimistic means that the region as a whole looks to the future with considerable confidence.”

In Europe, a quarter of CEOs were extremely optimistic and 71 percent somewhat so.

Four out of 10 executives in the communications and technology sectors were extremely optimistic, easily outpacing other business segments. In comparison, only 24 percent of banking CEOs were extremely upbeat.

Most respondents cited the increasing importance of electronic business for their blue-chip companies, but the survey found European business leaders were concerned they were far behind their U.S. counterparts.

More than 85 percent pointed to the gap that exists with rivals across the Atlantic. A full one quarter thought European companies were “significantly” behind the U.S. leaders. “In Europe, e-business is a revolution waiting to happen,” said James Schiro, chief executive of PricewaterhouseCoopers.

“On the one hand, we see broad confidence about the future of business on the Internet.

Yet on the other hand, the findings about the growth of e-business portray the region as the slowest worldwide to adopt business models based on new Internet-related technologies.”

He said it was clear European companies would have to invest heavily in the new technologies.

Clinton flew overnight from Washington to Zurich then boarded his Marine One helicopter for a half-hour trip through the snowcloaked Swiss Alps on a grey day.

The failure to launch a new round of trade talks while on Clinton’s home turf was a deep disappointment to the president, who has only a year left in office to prod the talks ahead.

“I will keep working for consensus on a new round,” Clinton told an audience including leaders from rich and poor nations and European and U.S. labor bosses sceptical about free trade. “We will show flexibility and will ask our partners to do the same,” he added.

Clinton predicted a tough fight in the U.S. Congress to gain approval of normal trade relations with China, a vote seen as Congress’ chance to have its say on the market-opening deal the Clinton administration reached with China late last year on Beijing’s entry into the WTO. “I think it would be a mistake of monumental proportion for the United States not to support China’s entry,” he said.

He called on the European Union to agree to negotiate over its agricultural subsidies, saying that would give a huge boost to the economies of developing countries exporting farm produce.

Quotes from the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum: “I think it would be fun to own a movie studio, but I don’t have the expertise, so I’m going to stay away from that.”

Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp.

“Five years ago people only used AOL about an hour a week and now they use it about an hour a day, which is progress, but there are 23 other hours in a day.”

America Online Inc. Chairman Stephen Case “People do not watch technology. People do not watch distribution. People watch what’s on.”

Viacom Inc. Chairman Sumner Redstone “It is a lot like walking across the path here and slipping occasionally, then getting back on track, or moving from summit to summit through valleys and basically trudging along through snow and ice and trying to get to an end.”

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on Middle East peace talks “I will ask him, to use a polite word, ask him to resign.”

Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid on the planned sacking of General Wiranto after an inquiry found he was implicated in causing last year’s mass violence in East Timor “Most of us keep talking about that we want peace for our children and their children. I think that we have it all wrong; we need to have peace now and for us and our children and we don’t need to lose any more time.”

King Abdullah of Jordan “I would not encourage any Serb who has fled to return to Kosovo at this time.”

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Sadako Ogata, discussing ethnic antagonisms in the Balkans and violence against Serbs by Albanians in the separatist Serbian province “A purely free market economy is like a free fox in a free henhouse.”

Renault SA Chairman Louis Schweitzer “There will always be brutal bosses and there will always be militant workers. What we are aiming for is responsible cooperation with employers.”

Bill Jordan, General Secretary of the Brussels-based International Confederation of Free Trade Unions “With cash on cards, only the crooks and poor people will still hold cash.”

Professor Willem Buiter, a member of Britain’s Monetary Policy Committee “For an archaeologist, the past is changing all the time.

For an economist, the future is changing all the time.” former Bank of Israel Governor Jakob Frenkel “It’s crazy, it’s maybe a little bit bubbly, but that’s OK, I accept that.”

Masayoshi Son, founder and president of Softbank Corp, on Internet share prices. His Internet investments made him one of the wealthiest men in the world.

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4-5-6 FEBBRAIO 2000

Ora comincia la vera battaglia McCain crushes front-runner George W. Bush in New Hampshire, the first primary of the 2000 elections. Al Gore ekes out a tense victory over Bill Bradley in New Hampshire

The next big Republican showdown of the campaign on February 19 in South Carolina Al Gore now heads for New York City, while Bradley flies later in the week to California

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL candidate George W. Bush speaks on the Sumter County Courthouse in South Carolina.

STEVE FORBES

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a storia delle elezioni presidenziali in America parla a favore dei candidati più forti, i cosìdetti “front-runners”. È quella la ragione principale per cui il processo per la nomination presidenziale può effettivamente prendere il via dopo le primarie del New Hampshire, che cadono a poca distanza da quelle dello Iowa.

Con due vittorie consecutive del governatore repubblicano del Texas, George W. Bush e del vice presidente democratico Al Gore, si spegnerebbero le speranze di tutti gli altri candidati. E anche se nel New Hampshire si verificasse una clamorosa vittoria imprevista da un “underdog”, potrebbe rallentare, ma non fermare la corsa dei due candidati principali.

La buona notizia, per i candidati di secondo

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL candidate Bill Bradley greets cheering supporters in Hanover, New Hampshire.

JOHN McCAIN

piano, è che la vittoria nello Iowa non significa un successo in New Hampshire. Infatti solo Jimmy Carter, tra i vecchi presidenti, nel 1976 ha ottenuto vittorie consecutive in questi primi confronti nazionali.

La cattiva notizia è che il New Hampshire è qualche volta solo il New Hampshire. Il democratico Gary Hart nel 1984 e il repubblicano Patrick Buchanan nel 1996 sconfissero i candidati più forti, ma non conquistarono la nomination del partito.

I numeri uno sono sempre duri da battere - non perchè i votanti stimino meno gli sfavoriti, ma perchè apprezzano di più i vincitori.

In questa periodo di pace, prosperità e soddisfazione in America, i candidati emergenti non hanno trovato nulla che stimoli le reazioni appassionate dei votanti e metta pressione sui numeri

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL candidate Arizona Senator John McCain's shadow hits a wall covered with his campaign posters in Concord, New Hampshire.

GEORGE W. BUSH WITH FORMER PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH

uno.

Tra i Repubblicani, la campagna sulla riforma delle finanze, che ha caratterizzato in Arizona l’attività del Sen. John McCain, il più importante avversario di Bush, non ha stimolato gli elettori. In base ai risultati delle votazioni, la riforma delle finanze è importante solo per il 2% degli elettori che hanno seguito la politica Repubblicana dello Iowa.

L’editore Steve Forbes, che ha conquistato un notevole secondo posto nello Iowa, si sta impegnando su tasse e aborto, argomenti affini ai conservatori. Ma Bush è abbastanza cauto su questi argomenti. Le votazioni hanno visto Bush aggiudicarsi il 40% dei voti contro il 30 dell’altro avversario conservatore.

Tra i Democratici, il senatore Bill Bradley può avere più intenzione di Al Gore di estendere la co-

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL candidate Steve Forbes speaks to cheering supporters through a bull horn at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire.

BILL BRADLEY

pertura sanitaria e di combattere la povertà, ma non è una differenza sufficiente a convincere gli elettori. Nello Iowa, Gore ha battuto Bradley guadagnando il 56% delle preferenze di chi ha posto la sanità al primo posto delle proprie necessità, contro il 33 ottenuto dal suo avversario.

Nell’attuale situazione solo Forbes potrebbe beneficiare di un risultato a sorpresa nel New Hampshire, con un miracoloso balzo verso un altro secondo posto finale, mentre McCain e Bradley - che hanno il vantaggio nei sondaggi a New Hampshire hanno bisogno di una netta vittoria. Diversamente avranno perso per la seconda volta.

Se Bradley vincesse nel New Hampshire e andasse ragionevolmente bene il 7 marzo, quando California, New York, Ohio e diversi altri stati andranno alle primarie, una settimana più tardi do-

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL candidate U.S. Vice President Al Gore during an address in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

AL GORE

vrebbe tornare al sud per gareggiare in Texas, Florida e altri quattro stati del sud e di confine.

Per annullare il vantaggio che Gore ha nel sud, Bradley dovrebbe probabilmente aggiudicarsi il resto della nazione.

Le speranze di McCaine poggiano sulle vittorie consecutive nel New Hampshire, in Sud Carolina il 19 febbraio e nel suo stato, l’Arizona, il 22 febbraio.

Nonostante questo scenario fantastico, potrebbero ancora mancargli l’organizzazione e le risorse per misurarsi il 7 marzo. Allora dovrebbe affrontare Bush in casa, alle primarie del sud, il 14 marzo.

Le ultime previsioni dicono: Gore ferma Bradley in New Hampshire. Forbes non riesce a ripetere la sorpresa dello Iowa. McCain vince e va a perdere a Bush in Sud Carolina.