Road Risk In Oxfordshire
WELCOME Welcome to the SIGNPOST SERIES , a suite of reports to support professionals working in Road Safety. Designed by Road Safety Analysis, these profiles provide an authoritative overview of performance that can assist in directing investment and effort to reduce casualties on the roads. For more information on other services offered by Road Safety Analysis, please visit www.roadsafetyanalysis.co.uk
CONTENTS Welcome .................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Overview of Oxfordshire .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Overall road risk ....................................................................................................................................................... 4 Crashes of all severities........................................................................................................................................ 4 Fatal or serious injury crashes ............................................................................................................................. 4 Progress in reducing road risk.............................................................................................................................. 4 Road risk for pedestrians and pedal cyclists ............................................................................................................ 5 Pedestrian road risk ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Pedestrian risk on all roads .............................................................................................................................. 5 Pedestrian risk on urban roads ........................................................................................................................ 5 Pedal cycle road risk............................................................................................................................................. 6 Road risk for vulnerable motor vehicle users .......................................................................................................... 7 Motorcycle user road risk .................................................................................................................................... 7 Large motorcycle road risk............................................................................................................................... 7 Small motorcycle road risk............................................................................................................................... 7 Young driver involvement road risk ..................................................................................................................... 7 Appendix .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Data sources......................................................................................................................................................... 9
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SIGNPOSTS
IN ROAD SAFETY
CRASHES ON ROADS IN
2012:
RISK OF
OXFORDSHIRE
B Y R OAD S AFETY A NALYSIS
INTRODUCTION The SIGNPOST SERIES are road safety profile documents which provide comprehensive insight into risk faced by local communities. Each profile examines either road risk on the network of a specific highway authority, or risk experienced by the residents of a particular local authority district area. This profile examines risk of crashes on Oxfordshire's road network. All crash, vehicle, driver and casualty information in this document is derived from national STATS19 data for a six year period from 2006 to 2011. The figures in this profile refer to crashes recorded within the boundaries of the Oxfordshire council area. The STATS19 dataset is available to the road safety community for detailed analysis in MAST Online. A less detailed version can be downloaded as a raw dataset from HM Government's transparency website at data.gov.uk. This profile examines crashes on Oxfordshire's roads, rather than the individual casualties and drivers who were involved in them. This approach is the most suitable method of assessing risk on a road network, because the overall circumstances of each incident are more likely to be relevant to its safety performance than personal factors. Risk profiling for individuals is examined in separate profile documents in the SIGNPOST SERIES , since it is more appropriate to examine the 'people' aspect of risk on the basis of residency rather than crash location.
OVERVIEW OF OXFORDSHIRE The English County council area of Oxfordshire (ONS code E10000025) covers an area of 1,006.2 square miles approx and had a total population of 648,722 residents approx based on 2010 mid-year estimates. With 645 residents per square mile it falls in the 8th decile of national population density, lying 158th out of 205 highway authority areas. As a county authority, Oxfordshire consists of 5 separate local authority districts. SIGNPOSTS SERIES profiles which assess resident casualty risk on the basis of district residency are available separately. Based on statistics produced by the Department for Transport in 2009, the total length of roads in Oxfordshire was 2,896.8 miles. This places it in the 2nd decile of absolute road length, lying 27th out of 205 highway authority areas. 705.0 miles of the network (25%) consists of non-motorway urban roads, placing the authority in the 8th decile of urban roads extent with a ranking of 164th out of 205 highway authority areas. Oxfordshire had an average annual traffic flow of 4,576.29 million motor vehicle miles per year over the period 2006 to 2011. This places it in the 1st decile of absolute traffic flow, lying 14th out of 205 highway authority areas. The area's average traffic density per mile of road is around 4,325 motor vehicles per day, placing it in the 5th decile of relative traffic density with a ranking of 102nd out of 205 highway authorities.
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OVERALL ROAD RISK This section calculates risk based on all reported crashes on the roads of Oxfordshire over the six year period 2006 to 2011, regardless of age, residency or road user type of the casualties and drivers involved. It is likely that additional unreported crashes occurred, but no estimate of these can be included in this report. Crash figures in this section are also indexed and ranked relative to overall traffic flow, expressed as the average number of million motor vehicle miles travelled per reported crash. Oxfordshire's overall risk and progress in comparison to other areas is illustrated in Chart B.
Crashes of all severities On average, approximately 1,841 crashes per year are reported on Oxfordshire's roads. These figures include crashes resulting only in slight injuries such as minor cuts, bruises, shock and whiplash. Oxfordshire's overall road risk rate relative to traffic is 2.49 million mv miles per crash. In comparison, the national rate is 1.83 million mv miles per crash. Consequently, Oxfordshire's national road risk index is 74, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that road risk on Oxfordshire's roads is 26% lower than the national average. Oxfordshire has a national road risk ranking of 160th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 8th decile of road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain.
Fatal or serious injury crashes On average, approximately 326 crashes per year resulting in fatal or serious injury are reported on Oxfordshire's roads. This figure includes an average of 37.7 crashes per year resulting in one or more fatalities, but excludes crashes resulting in slight injuries only. Oxfordshire's fatal and serious road risk rate relative to traffic is 14.05 million mv miles per crash. In comparison, the national rate is 12.40 million mv miles per crash. Consequently, Oxfordshire's national fatal and serious road risk index is 88, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that fatal and serious road risk on Oxfordshire's roads is 12% lower than the national average. Oxfordshire has a national fatal and serious road risk ranking of 129th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 7th decile across 205 highway authorities in Britain.
Progress in reducing road risk These statistics measure the change in road risk over time on Oxfordshire's roads. A local trend is established by comparing a baseline period (2006 to 2008) to the most recent information available (2009 to 2011). Progress is assessed by evaluating this trend relative to nationwide change over the same period. A comparison of recent progress to overall risk is illustrated in Chart A. The average number of crashes reported on Oxfordshire's roads has changed by -314 crashes per year over three years. This includes a change of +11 crashes per year over three years which resulted in fatal or serious injuries. Oxfordshire has a road risk progress index of 98, where a value of 100 represents the national rate of progress and higher values indicate less progress. The corresponding fatal and serious road risk progress index is 118. This means that progress in improving Oxfordshire's road risk is 2% faster than the national rate over the last three years, while progress in improving fatal and serious road risk is 18% slower than the national rate. Oxfordshire's national road risk progress ranking is 82nd (where first place indicates the best progress), placing it in the 4th decile of progress across 205 highway authorities in Britain. The corresponding fatal and serious road risk progress ranking is 188th, placing it in the 10th decile of progress.
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ROAD RISK FOR PEDESTRIANS AND PEDAL CYCLISTS This section assesses the risk of crashes involving injury to vulnerable road users without motor vehicles. The scope of this section covers all crashes involving injury to such road users on Oxfordshire's roads over the six year period 2006 to 2011. It is likely that additional unreported crashes occurred. Crash figures in this section are also indexed and ranked relative to road network length, expressed as miles of road per reported crash. Since motorway regulations do not permit pedestrians and non motor vehicles, motorway crashes have been omitted from this analysis and motorway has been excluded from network length calculations. Progress indices and rankings are only available in categories where sample sizes are generally large enough for results to be meaningful. A comparison of risk between different road user groups is illustrated in Chart A.
Pedestrian road risk Pedestrian risk on all roads On average, there are approximately 187.3 crashes per year on the roads of Oxfordshire which result in at least one pedestrian casualty. This equates to an annual rate of 15.3 miles of road per crash in the area. In comparison, the national pedestrian crash rate is 9.0 miles of British road per crash each year. This calculation completely excludes motorways (both crashes and road miles) but includes all other urban and rural roads. Consequently, Oxfordshire's pedestrian road risk index is 59, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that pedestrian road risk in Oxfordshire is 41% lower than the national average. The authority has a national pedestrian road risk ranking of 159th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 8th decile of pedestrian road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain. The average number of crashes resulting in pedestrian injury has changed by -31 crashes per year over three years (excluding motorways). Oxfordshire has a pedestrian road risk progress index of 96, where a value of 100 represents the national rate of progress and higher values indicate less progress. This means that progress in improving pedestrian road risk in Oxfordshire is 4% faster than the national rate over the last three years. Oxfordshire's national pedestrian road risk progress ranking is 84th (where first place indicates the best progress), placing it in the 5th decile of progress across 205 highway authorities in Britain. A comparison of pedestrian progress to overall pedestrian risk is illustrated in Chart A. Pedestrian risk on urban roads On average, there are approximately 138.3 crashes per year on urban roads in Oxfordshire which result in at least one pedestrian casualty. This equates to an annual rate of 5.1 miles of urban road per crash in the area. In comparison, the national pedestrian crash rate is 3.7 miles of British urban road per crash each year. This calculation completely excludes all rural roads and motorways (in terms of both crashes and road miles). Consequently, Oxfordshire's urban pedestrian road risk index is 73, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that urban pedestrian road risk in Oxfordshire is 27% lower than the national average. The authority has a national urban pedestrian road risk ranking of 122nd (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 6th decile of urban pedestrian road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain. The average number of crashes on urban roads resulting in pedestrian injury has changed by -33 crashes per year over three years (urban roads excluding motorways). Oxfordshire has an urban pedestrian road risk progress index of 90, where a value of 100 represents the national rate of progress and higher values indicate less progress. This means that progress in improving urban pedestrian road risk in Oxfordshire is 10% faster than the national rate over the last three years. Oxfordshire's national urban pedestrian road risk progress ranking is 45th (where first place indicates the best progress), placing it in the 3rd decile of progress across 205 highway authorities in Britain. A comparison of urban pedestrian progress to overall urban pedestrian risk is illustrated in Chart A. 5|Page
Pedal cycle road risk On average, there are approximately 277.5 crashes per year on the roads of Oxfordshire which result in at least one pedal cycle user casualty. These figures include crashes involving injury to pedal cycle riders, pillion passengers or both. This equates to an annual rate of 10.3 miles of road per crash in the area. In comparison, the national pedal cycle crash rate is 14.0 miles of British road per crash each year. This calculation completely excludes motorways (both crashes and road miles) but includes all other urban and rural roads. Consequently, Oxfordshire's pedal cycle road risk index is 136, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that pedal cycle road risk in Oxfordshire is 36% higher than the national average. The authority has a national pedal cycle road risk ranking of 84th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 5th decile of pedal cycle road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain.
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ROAD RISK FOR VULNERABLE MOTOR VEHICLE USERS This section assesses road risk for motor vehicle users who may be among the most vulnerable to injury or crash involvement. The scope of this section covers all reported crashes involving selected road user types on Oxfordshire's roads over the six year period 2006 to 2011. It is likely that additional unreported crashes occurred. Crash figures in this section are also indexed and ranked relative to overall traffic flow, expressed as the average number of million motor vehicle miles travelled per reported crash. Progress indices and rankings are only available in categories where sample sizes are generally large enough for results to be meaningful. A comparison of risk between different road user groups is illustrated in Chart A.
Motorcycle user road risk In order to improve insight into local issues and priorities, motorcycle user road risk has been split into two categories for separate analysis. For the purpose of this report, large motorcycles include all powered two wheeled vehicles with a reported engine capacity of 125 cc or over. Small motorcycles include mopeds and other powered two wheeled vehicles with a reported engine capacity under 125 cc. All figures include crashes involving injury to riders, pillion passengers or both. Large motorcycle road risk On average, there are approximately 139.2 crashes per year on the roads of Oxfordshire which result in at least one casualty who was on a large motorcycle. This equates to an annual rate of 32.88 million mv miles per crash. In comparison, the national large motorcycle crash rate is 26.99 million mv miles per crash. Consequently, Oxfordshire's large motorcycle road risk index is 82, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that large motorcycle road risk in Oxfordshire is 18% lower than the national average. The authority has a national large motorcycle road risk ranking of 111th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 6th decile of large motorcycle road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain. Small motorcycle road risk On average, there are approximately 94.0 crashes per year on the roads of Oxfordshire which result in at least one casualty who was on a small motorcycle. This equates to an annual rate of 48.68 million mv miles per crash. In comparison, the national small motorcycle crash rate is 29.87 million mv miles per crash. Consequently, Oxfordshire's small motorcycle road risk index is 61, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that small motorcycle road risk in Oxfordshire is 39% lower than the national average. The authority has a national small motorcycle road risk ranking of 137th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 7th decile of small motorcycle road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain.
Young driver involvement road risk This section examines all reported crashes on Oxfordshire's roads involving young adult drivers, regardless of personal injury. This approach is used to scrutinise the exposure of younger drivers to road risk. All analysis within this section excludes riders of pedal cycles, motorcycles and mopeds, since risk for these road user groups has been considered separately. For the purposes of this analysis, young adults are all persons aged between 16 and 24 inclusive. Sixteen year olds have been included for consistency with other profiles in the SIGNPOSTS SERIES. This practice is followed because reliable population estimates are not available for age groups which start at seventeen, which precludes accurate analysis of resident risk. On average, there are approximately 460.0 crashes per year on the roads of Oxfordshire which involve at least one young adult driver. This equates to an annual rate of 9.95 million mv miles per crash. In comparison, 7|Page
the national young driver involvement crash rate is 6.94 million mv miles per crash. Consequently, Oxfordshire's young driver involvement road risk index is 70, where a value of 100 represents the national rate. This means that young driver involvement road risk in Oxfordshire is 30% lowerthan the national average. The authority has a national young driver involvement road risk ranking of 184th (where first place indicates the highest risk), placing it in the 9th decile of young driver involvement road risk across 205 highway authorities in Britain. The average number of crashes involving young adult drivers has changed by -109 crashes per year over three years (excludes pedal cycles and MCs). Oxfordshire has a young driver involvement road risk progress index of 100, where a value of 100 represents the national rate of progress and higher values indicate less progress. This means that progress in improving young driver involvement road risk in Oxfordshire is equal to the national rate over the last three years. Oxfordshire's national young driver involvement road risk progress ranking is 102nd (where first place indicates the best progress), placing it in the 5th decile of progress across 205 highway authorities in Britain. A comparison of young driver involvement progress to overall young driver involvement risk is illustrated in Chart A.
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APPENDIX Data sources Reported road casualties by residency: MAST Online http://www.roadsafetyanalysis.org/mast-online/ Subset of raw STATS19 dataset released by HM Government: Data.gov.uk http://data.gov.uk/dataset/road-accidents-safety-data Motor vehicle traffic by Local Authority: Department for Transport http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics/tables/tra8901/ Road lengths by Local Authority: Department for Transport http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics?post_type=release&series=road-lengths-series Population and area in England and Wales: Office for National Statistics http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Population+Estimates Population and area in Scotland: General Register Office for Scotland http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/population/estimates/mid-year/index.html
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100 74
88
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All Crashes
KSI Crashes
Pedestrian Crashes
Urban Pedestrian Crashes
Pedal Cycle Crashes
Large MC Crashes
Small MC Crashes
Young Adult Crashes
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[Dashed Lines] Progress Index - last three years (higher index = less progress)
[Solid Lines] National Road Risk Inde x (higher index = greater risk)
Chart A - Oxfordshire Road Risk and Progress Indices (2006 - 2011)
Chart B - Highway Authority Road Risk: Performance and Progress (2006 - 2011) 140
Low risk, less improvement
High risk, less improvement
130
Recent Progress Index
120
110
100
90
Oxfordshire 80
Low risk, more improvement
High risk, more improvement
70 0
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300 All Resident Casualties Index
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