Bear With Us: What Is To Be Done About Russia Recommendations on the conditions for normalizing economic activity with Russia BACKGROUND From October 18-21, 2023, Salzburg Global Seminar hosted an off-the-record, high-level dialogue, “Bear With Us: What Is To Be Done About Russia?” to explore scenarios and questions about what to do about Russia in the mid- to long-term. Russia’s current war against Ukraine has made it plain that the hope for Russian liberalization and Europeanization after the Cold War has run aground. The war has dramatically changed the shape of Russian politics and likely the Russian state itself, with a future that is both uncertain and potentially more dangerous. Post cold-war efforts to account for Russia in the existing transatlantic and European security architecture have broken down, and newer and even bigger threats might continue to emerge from a weakened and perhaps further disintegrated Russian Federation. The Wagner Group mutiny in June 2023 also gave the impression that the power of President Vladimir Putin might fray, that his regime could be more fragile than many observers had assumed, and that events can unfold quickly once a fuse is lit. In this context, all likely scenarios for the future of the Russian state are worrying. How to bolster Europe and the wider region against these acute and worsening threats, while continuing to engage and work with Russian youth, civil society, artists, scientists, and the private sector will present a significant and long-term challenge for the future of Europe. Against this backdrop, there is an urgent need to think radically about present and future engagement with Russia. Discussions focused on what options exist for managing and mitigating increasing uncertainty and danger exuding from Moscow. Fellows shared insights into political, economic, and security developments within and across Russia, as well as on the dynamics of other ongoing conflicts on Europe’s periphery. Discussions also looked beyond the current war on Ukraine to other regions affected by Russian encroachment as well as other historical conflicts where lessons can be drawn. At the end of the program, three working groups developed a number of recommendations. These recommendations do not necessarily represent consensus among participating Fellows, nor do they necessarily represent the positions of Fellows’ respective organizations or institutions. However, Fellows wished to make these recommendations public with the goal of helping policy-makers develop new thinking and clearer approaches for dealing with the intractable problem: What is to be done about Russia?
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UNDER WHAT CONDITIONS CAN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY - INCLUDING PRIVATE SECTOR ACTORS - NORMALIZE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WITH RUSSIA? 1. Russia should withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian territory (within its internationally recognized borders), as well as from all other jurisdictions (including, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia). Russia should also cease any hostilities and other forms of existing coercion and hybrid warfare both directly or indirectly through third states in relation to any other countries (also including Armenia). 2. The territorial integrity of Ukraine should be restored (Russia should unconditionally and unequivocally recognize the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. Russia should take all necessary steps to implement this, including changing its own Constitution and legislation, and lifting all kinds of control, including administrative and financial, from all the Ukrainian territories now controlled by Russia in any way). 3. Russia should pay reparations to Ukraine (either the amount and procedure agreed upon in a peace treaty, or via committing to international compensatory mechanism, e.g. recognizing the jurisdiction of the international compensation commission and committing to abide by its decision, creating a mechanism for filling the fund which should be used for payment of compensations awarded by the commission; e.g. via direct immediate payment of the required amount or in an “automatic” manner, e.g. via a “tax” on Russian oil and gas trade operations). 4. Russia should cooperate to create an international tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine, and to find and give the criminals to the international justice (including the war criminals from Russia and Belarus). Likewise, Belarus should do the same. 5. Russia should release and return to Ukraine all persons kidnapped or deported from the Ukrainian territory and all Ukrainians detained or imprisoned in Russia/Belarus and/or occupied territories. 6. Until conditions (1) to (5) are met, a special “tax” should be imposed by the international community on Russia’s oil and gas trade operations to finance Ukraine’s military needs for defending itself from Russian aggression and for eliminating its consequences in the Ukrainian territory. The United States and European Union should take measures to prevent third countries (for example, Azerbaijan) suspected of laundering Russian gas from re-exporting it as their own for a higher price in Europe. 7. However, normal economic activity should not be restored in military and defense sectors for at least 25 years. That would include: a. Strict export control for dual use and military goods; b. Prohibition of G7 members‘ (or a wider group of countries) investments into the Russian military and defense industry and of Russian investments in the G7 (or a wider group of countries) members‘ military and defense industry. 8. Normalization of economic activity should be fully reversed in case of a breach of any of the conditions (1)-(5) or (7). 9. In addition to the reparation mechanism described in (3) above, an international trust/ fund should be created to collect part of the proceeds from Russia’s oil and gas trade operations to compensate any claims of any foreign (non-Russian) creditor based on a foreign judgment, foreign arbitral award, or a decision of any other international body – for a period of at least 25 years with a possibility of further extension (to pay off all existing debts of Russia and to ensure some additional security for foreign investors in Russia).
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