SHIFTING GEARS
An Urbanist’s Take on Autonomous Vehicles May 2018
SHIFTING GEARS
An Urbanist’s Take on Autonomous Vehicles May 2018
Team: Alykhan Mohamed Margit Liander Rosa Herrero Christian Vitulli Siqi Zhu Kara Slocum
Contact ShiftingGears@Sasaki.com Cover and Illustrations Ben Jundanian
A Principled Approach // We believe that urban designers and planners have a significant amount of agency and an important role to play in ensuring that this transformative technology evolves in a way that makes our cities and towns stronger. // There are many alternative futures, and rather than simply wait and hope for the best, we must pick the ones to support through our designs, advocacy, and partnerships with our counterparts in the automotive, technology, and public sectors.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 06 Introduction + Position 08 The AV Landscape 10 12 14 16
The Public Sector The Tech + Auto Industries The Builders The Urbanists
18 Big Decisions 20 22 24 26 28
Social Impact and Equity Ownership Models Multimodal Integration The Public Realm Land Use and Urban Transformation
30 Urban Design Opportunities 32 34 36 38 40 41 42
Region & City Urban Neighborhoods Campus Downtown Airport Industrial Suburban
44 Urban Design Strategies 46 50 52 54 56 58
A Hierarchy of Destinations Digital and Physical Infrastructure Reclaimed Open Space Campus Downtowns Urban Neighborhoods
60 In Conclusion 5
introduction & position
Introduction + Position As a global design firm with clients from Houston to Ho Chi Minh City, Sasaki is uniquely positioned to shape the way in which the built environment evolves along with autonomous vehicle technology. While there has been extensive research on the technical, legal, and ethical aspects of autonomous vehicles, efforts to develop policies and prototypes for the built environment are still nascent.
This research initiative is intended to directly inform our practice and our clients—city governments, institutions, and private-sector developers —by developing a toolkit of policies, building typologies, and design guidelines. In order to make this a proactive initiative that helps to realize the highest potential of AVs in our cities, we view close collaboration with automotive and technology firms as an integral part of our research. This document, “An Urbanist’s Take on Autonomous Vehicles,” is the first component of Sasaki’s research initiative. It provides a brief overview of a complex and quickly changing landscape and, rather than an exhaustive compilation, it is meant to highlight key areas where urban design can be most impactful. Most importantly, this research takes a principled approach to autonomous vehicles. We believe that urban designers and planners have a significant amount of agency and an important role to play in ensuring that this transformative technology evolves in a way that makes our cities and towns stronger. There are many alternative futures, and rather than simply wait and hope for the best, we must pick the ones to support through our designs, advocacy, and partnerships with our counterparts in the automotive, technology, and public sectors.
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SASAKI
“There are some exciting possibilities with autonomous vehicles, but I think we need to remember what makes a great city, and that’s really about the people, not the cars.” — Janet Sadiq Khan Street Wars 2035: Can Cyclists and Driverless Cars Ever Co-Exist? The Guardian, June 2017
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The AV Landscape // Who is driving the evolution of transportation technology? // Who is shaping the infrastructure and technology to integrate this technology into our cities? // Who is designing the places and streets where autonomous vehicles will have the most impact on our lives? // And perhaps most importantly of all, can all of these interests align, creating a mobility network that will make our cities better for people?
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10 The Public Sector 12 The Tech + Auto Industries 14 The Builders 16 The Urbanists
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the AV landscape
The Public Sector Federal, state, and municipal governments are ultimately responsible for determining when and how AVs may operate. The technology itself has advanced to the point that legislators and public administrators must work proactively to anticipate the opportunities and challenges. The public sector wields significant influence in the design of vehicles and infrastructure through its role in ensuring the safety, sustainability, and efficiency of vehicles and roadways. It is imperative that the federal, state, and local governing institutions work together in the creation of policy and make way for the fast growing technology. Today, there is little research and policy guidance that exists around planning for AVs: only 6% of the country’s major cities’ have long-range transportation master plans that consider AVs. FEDERAL The Department of Transportation (DOT), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) are the three main federal institutions regulating AVs. At their core, these agencies are set up to ensure fast, safe, efficient, accessible, and convenient transportation systems that meet the interests and enhance the quality of life of the American people. In the case of AVs, these agencies must create and support policies that stay focused on this mission. 10
In September 2016, the DOT and NHTSA issued the Federal Automated Vehicle Policy. This policy was important in providing a path for future safe deployment of AVs. It outlines the necessary support of technological and industry innovation as well as encouraging stakeholder engagement. Most importantly, they are working to accelerate and update policy framework as necessary and are committed to working to match the pace of the private sector to ensure safety. In addition, the FHWA issued new guidelines for Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) architectures. These guidelines were released to help state and local government agencies understand and prepare for the technology that will enable connected and autonomous vehicles. The plan governs how AVs integrate with existing traffic management and communication networks, how new initiatives may be funded, and stresses cooperation across state and local boundaries in the integration process.
“Only 6% of the country’s major cities’ have long-range transportation master plans that consider AVs.” Brooks Rainwater, National League of Cities Here’s How Self-Driving Cars will Transform Your City. Wired, October 2016
SASAKI
STATUS OF AV INITIATIVES, 2017 14 14 5
Under consideration Initiative failed Passed initiative
STATE At a state and local level, regulators must work more closely to test technology and guidelines, as these are currently being tested. A case study of this implementation is in Boston, Massachusetts where the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (Mass DOT) established The Automated Vehicles Working Group in October 2016. This group came about from Executive Order No. 572 to encourage the safe development of AVs and their component parts in Massachusetts. Together Mass DOT and the AV Working Group will issue guidance to allow for safe testing on designated highways and other public roadways. They will work directly with companies to support innovation, propose changes to statutes and regulations that facilitate deployment, and ensure safety to the public in this process.
LOCAL At a local level, Boston is proactive about both testing AVs and providing space for conversation regarding urban impacts. AV implementation was discussed in the city of Boston’s transportation master plan Go Boston 2030. This plan included a wide variety of public engagement and visioning exercises. Having AVs in the equation is a productive step towards possible successful regulation and implementation. Additionally, in 2016 Boston was chosen for a year-long collaborative exercise with the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Boston Consulting Group to study the Future of Urban and Autonomous Mobility. This effort will help create proactive policy and support for on-street testing. This will be vital in developing future best management practices.
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the AV landscape
The Tech + Auto Industries Sticking with traditional strengths, most tech companies have focused on networks, remote sensing, and software platforms, leaving the design of actual vehicles to traditional automotive powerhouses. The Carmakers, Startups, and Planners Reshaping Urban mobility, Curbed, July 2017
From Audi to Volvo, almost every major auto manufacturer has begun to invest significant resources in AV research. Many are developing in-house expertise through dedicated R&D groups, such as Audi’s Urban Future Initiative and Nissan-Renault’s Future Lab. Traditional manufacturers are entering into complementary partnerships with newer companies that specialize in artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and network analytics. For example, General Motors is partnering with Lyft. At the end of 2016, Ford Motors unveiled a strategy to transition from an automobile manufacturer to a “mobility company” and pledged to have driverless cars on the road by 2021. AV technology has moved beyond the whimsical illustrations of the 1950s and the early experimental designs of Google. The technology is poised to disrupt the entire model of vehicle ownership, beginning with the industry that develops and manufacturing automobiles. While there has been significant speculation around the efforts by technology firms like Google, Uber, and Tesla to develop fully autonomous vehicles, it is important to understand that there are five levels of autonomy, as defined by the Federal Government. Each level of autonomy will
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have different implications on how autonomous vehicles will be able to interact with the built environment. For example, we will see the impact of conditional automation in controlled environments, such as campuses and freeways, much sooner than we will see fully automated vehicles that can navigate complex urban environments. Numerous public-private partnerships are already developing between cities and auto manufacturers to identify areas to pilot the today’s technology in controlled environments. Several car manufacturers, including Tesla, have claimed that their vehicles already contain the necessary hardware to operate without a driver. While these claims may be exagerated to some degree, the key takeaway is that the technology and automobile sectors are certainly moving forward.
“By 2035, more than 30 million autonomous vehicles will be sold each year” Boston Consulting Group
SASAKI
“By 2050, driverless vehicles will drive an economy worth over $7 trillion” Intel and Strategy Analytic, 2017
GM | Cruise Automation | Lyft
“Rumors of self-driving vehicles by 2018”
“Truly self-driving vehicles by 2021”
Ford | Argo AI
Honda | Waymo (Google)
“ Self-driving on the highway by 2020”
“2020 for autonomous cars in urban conditions
Toyota | Toyota Research Institute “2025 for truly driverless cars”
Renault | Nissan | Microsoft
“Self driving on the highway by 2021”
Volvo | Uber “Self driving on the highway by 2021”
Daimler | Uber | Bosch “Nearly fully autonomous by early 2020s”
Tesla
Self-Driving Car Timeline for 11 Top Automakers, Venturebeat, June 2017
“End of 2017”
2018
2019
2020
2021
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the AV landscape
The Builders As the ones responsible for the implementation and construction of much of our built fabric, real estate developers and universities are thinking progressively about building flexibility, the future of parking, and how their campuses can serve as ideal testing grounds for the new technlogy. REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS Developers understand that car culture is on its way out, even in some of the most autocentric parts of the country, and are beginning to rethink parking garages so that they are easily adaptable to other uses in the future. Projects such as AvalonBay Communities, a large residential complex in downtown Los Angeles, will include nearly 1,000 parking spaces at street level and two floors underground. Parking will be designed at level as opposed to with inclined floors, so the spaces can easily be repurposed, and with 13 foot ceilings to allow for future infrastructure (e.g. HVAC, plumbing, etc.). By the time the project is completed within four years, the developer has plans to convert many of the spaces into retail uses, a gym, and a movie theater. Other developers have also started to think about how to design parking structures for future office space. This would entail locating elevators and stairs in the middle as they are in office buildings, and ensuring that the facades of street level parking could easily be replaced with windows and match the rest of the building facade.
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In addition to repurposing parking garages, commercial retail developers have started to focus on how to best apply the latest technology to enhance the overall retail experience. Rick Caruso, one of Los Angeles’ most prominent shopping mall developers, has already designated ride-sharing drop-off and pick-up zones at the Grove, one of his upscale retail centers located downtown, in anticipation of the days when mall parking spaces are expendable. Caruso is well aware that the Grove is one of the city’s hottest Uber destinations and has partnered with Google’s Intersection division to improve the overall arrival and departure experience through new technology that integrates phones, street sensors, and license-plate recognition.
Now
Future
Parking in new buildings can be designed to easily be converted into retail or office space in the future
SASAKI
Designated ride-sharing drop-off and pick-up zones at Los Angeles’ the grove shopping center
UNIVERSITIES Universities around the country have also proved to be a big player in the AV landscape, as their highly controlled and enclosed campuses serve as the ideal testing grounds for new technology. Campus environments are predictable, safe, often unrestricted by municipal or state regulation, and pedestrian-friendly with their relatively low speed limits. The built environment is also easier to program as circulation systems are far simpler than those of typical urban areas with a diverse range of street types and traffic patterns.
CASE STUDY: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, ANN ARBOR Navya, a French startup developing driverless shuttles, has partnered with the University of Michigan’s TechLab at MCity. MCity is a unique test facility that simulates a variety of urban and suburban environments on a 32acre site on the University’s North Campus. MCity brings together partners from industry, government, and academia with the goal of implementing a working system of connected and automated vehicles in Ann Arbor by 2021. As a result of the MCity’s research, the University announced in June 2017 that they will have two 15-passenger fully-automated shuttles operating on North Campus this fall along a nonstop two-mile route.
University campuses are innovative places that have the ability to experiment with this new technology and embrace its associated risk, differentiating them from other parts of the public realm. Currently, there are several companies marketing both autonomous shuttle services for passengers and autonomous golf cart vehicles for facility maintenance to university campuses. Both Varden Labs and Auto Robotics have started deploying their vehicles to several universities in California including the University of California Los Angeles, Sacramento State, and Santa Clara University.
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the AV landscape
The Urbanists As a design firm, Sasaki is not alone in researching and postulating about the anticipated effects of AV technology on urban systems and the built form.
Several design, planning, and engineering firms across the globe have tackled the topic with the goals of generating discussion, increasing overall awareness around the imminence of the technology and potential future scenarios, and developing both multidisciplinary and industry partnerships. In addition to design firms, there are several urban thought leaders, such as think tanks, academic institutions, foundations, and professional organizations, that play a significant role in the future of the AV landscape. Although not directly involved in developing technology or designing cities, the research and recommendations they produce can have a substantial impact on and reflect the views of their constituents and audiences. While the planning and design industry may have similar interests and end goals around AV technology, design firms and other urban thought leaders have taken a variety of different approaches toward research material including white papers, collaborative industry events, and tech partnerships, among others. Firms such as Arup, WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff, and HR&A have developed informative reports, policy roadmaps, and position papers, while engineering firms like Buro Happold Engineering have orchestrated and documented a series of design sprints across several cities worldwide. Other 16
firms, such as IDEO, have focused on graphically visualizing the potential user experience, as well as forming partnerships with several auto companies. The planning and design industry has also generated several design competitions around the topic, one of the most recent being the Driverless Future Challenge, which called for proposals to actively shape New York City’s response to driverless technology. This competition, organized by Blank Space together with the City of New York, New Lab, AIA New York, and Fast Company, resulted in proposals from over 25 countries worldwide.
RECENT PUBLICATIONS Arup “Future of Highways” Bloomberg Associates “Taming the Autonomous Vehicle: A Primer for Cities” Buro Happold Engineering “Global Design Sprints: How to Reimagine Our Streets in an Era of Autonomous Vehicles” HR&A, Arcadis Design & Consulting, Sam Schwartz “Driverless Future: A Policy Roadmap For City Leaders” IDEO “The Future of Automobility” WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff “Driving Towards Driverless: A Guide for Government Agencies”
SASAKI
Industry research to date has focused on a range of design and policy topics across a variety of scales from streetscape design to the nature of public transit. Several research institutions, such as the RAND Corporation, have developed reports that seek to provide a comprehensive and balanced overview of the technology for policymakers at the state and national level, focusing on five key areas: safety, mobility, congestion, land use, and the environment. Professional organizations such as the National Association of Transportation Officials (NACTO) and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) have speculated about the potential effects of AV technology on transit and traditional types of mobility and on real estate products such as retail, self-storage, and parking. The majority of design firms have honed in on the potential physical implications of the technology for the urban public realm. For example, the four finalist teams from the Driverless Future Challenge chose to address issues such as reclaiming the street through adaptable public squares, improving food access, increasing transit access in underserved neighborhoods, and managing high-volume AV pickup and dropoff locations near transit hubs. Most peer firms, urban think tanks, and professional organizations have accepted the imminent future of driverless cars, although opinions vary about timing of the technology and the impacts on land use patterns. Thought leaders such as RethinkX, an independent think tank focused on technology-driven disruption and one of the boldest proponents of AV technology, has asserted that “by 2030, within ten years of regulatory approval of fully autonomous vehicles, 95% of all US passenger miles will be served by transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) providers who will own and operate fleets of autonomous electric vehicles.”
Others are not as convinced and argue that there will be a greater transitional period with a mix of semi-autonomous and autonomous vehicles on the road. The majority of the industry has also opted to focus on the potential positive impacts of this technology on urban areas such as reduced space for parking, more pedestrian-friendly spaces, and enhanced access for the disabled or elderly. However, not everyone shares this optimistic perspective. In a recent ULI publication, urbanists Peter Calthorpe and Jerry Walters assumed a more cautious attitude by questioning how AVs will affect the number of cars on the road and total miles driven and whether or not they will exacerbate sprawl if people are more inclined to travel longer distances in cars. They argue that shared use of these vehicles is essential in order to maintain thriving urban areas centered around walking, biking, and mass transit. As urbanists, we are all driven to guide the ongoing technology race in the right direction to ensure optimal future urban conditions. The planning and design industry has established itself as a key player in the discussion around AV technology and now must boldly assume an active role in how we integrate the technology into our cities.
“Cities and countries must actively shape the introduction of AVs.” Robin Chase, Founder of Zipcar Self-Driving Cars Will Improve Our Cities. If They Don’t Ruin Them. Wired, August 2016
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Big Decisions // As AVs evolve and eventually become mainstream, we have the opportunity to make some big decisions. // Is there anything intrinsic about AVs that will make our cities more equitable, efficient, and safe? // Or is it about taking a stance and developing an urban design vision that will guide the development of this technology alongside the engineering and economic factors? // A principled approach can catalyze change and help to achieve the goals we have collectively agreed upon for our cities.
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20 Social Impact + Equity 22 Ownership Models 24 Multimodal Integration 26 The Public Realm 28 Land Use + Urban Transformation
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big decisions
Social Impact + Equity Will the impacts of AV technology on the built realm help mitigate social divides and public health challenges, or simply exacerbate them?
94% of serious vehicle crashes in the US are due to human error. Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety. USDOT, September 2017
Our Stance
Sasaki carefully considers the social impact of our recomendations and designs. We will seek to harness the potential of AVs to make transportation networks more equitable, safe, and transparent.
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Safety Will AVs help reduce the 1.3 million road deaths each worldwide?
Access How affordable will AVs be? Will the private sector play a larger role in transit?
Jobs What will happen to the four million people who drive for a living?
Data Will the ability to monitor almost every aspect of transportation lead to better management or a loss of privacy?
SASAKI
Vision Zero
Mixed Messages
AV technology evolves in tandem with roadways and other supporting infrastructure, creating safer streets and improving the quality of the public realm.
The absence of strong Federal standards results in a messy transition between partial and complete autonomy. Manufacturers prioritize driver safety, but the safety of pedestrians and quality of the public realm are overlooked.
vs Expanded Access
Increasing Disparity
Shared ownership platforms will be developed in tandem with the public transit system and all will benefit from increased mobility.
There will be a lag between private AV ownership and the development of public AV transit options and socioeconomic divides will grow.
Adaptation
Displacement
These jobs will be replaced through government initiatives or through new innovative approaches by the affected industries to reinvent themselves.
There will be a transitional period where many displaced workers are unemployed.
Shared Data
Proprietary
Open access to comprehensive data on VMTs and routes travelled will lead to more efficient transportation planning and operations.
Fragmented propietary data sets will create a missed opportunity for coordinated planning and can be misused, leading to intrusions on privacy.
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big decisions
Ownership Models There is a broad consensus that the biggest gains in terms of sustainability, affordability, and mobility will come from shared ownership of AVs.
Vehicle Ownership per Household, Projection 2.1
1.2
Today
20XX
Ownership Models Ownership
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Sahred Occupancy Single Occupancy
Occupancy
Public
Private
Autonomous rapid transit
Car sharing
ART would be a great option for AVs when sharing with manual driven vehicles. The dedicated lanes allow the AVs to function at peak performance therefore making the transportation network run as efficient as possible.
Ride sharing is the most efficient system if integrating AVs. Cities would only require 10% of the cars on the road if the transportation system was 100% shared.
SASAKI
Our Stance
Sasaki anticipates and advocates for shared ownership models, paying close attention to the implications on parking requirements, roadway capacity, and curbside uses.
Fleets
AV single taxis
Personal AVs
Car manufacturers are testing the idea of partnering with ride hail and car rental companies, in anticipation that private ownership will decrease and shared rides will increase.
Single passenger AV taxis have few road capacity benefits and many of the same issues found with personal AVs. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) would increase due to taxi repositioning and driving long distances without a rider to pick someone up. There are benefits though, such as lower parking needs and improved mobility for the elderly.
Individually owned AVs will provide a significant convenience for owners, but this will result in more traffic, more carbon emissions, and more VMTs.
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big decisions
Multimodal Integration Will AVs play nice with bikes, pedestrians, and transit? Our Stance
Sasaki considers AV technology as a tool to strengthen multimodal transportation networks. Sasaki recommends a proactive approach to ridesharing and mobility-on-demand through public-private partnerships. Special consideration is given to the medium density contexts that favor smaller vehicles over traditional mass transit.
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Competition with Transit Will AVs replace mass transit? AVs have the potential to complement other modes of travel — rail, bus, cycling and walking — and fill in gaps where other modes are less efficient. However, without a thoughtful and context-sensitive strategy for integration, there is a significant possibility for destructive competition between AVs and mass transit.
Interaction with People How will autononomous vehicles share the right of way with cyclists and pedestrians? Improved safety and the potential to achieve ‘vision zero’ is a significant opportunity that all stakeholders seem to agree upon. There are diverging opinions, however, on whether this will involve segregation or mixing of modes. The ability of AV technology to quickly become sophisticated enough to navigate complex environments combined with intelligent regulation and design will be key to finding the right balance.
SASAKI
Complementary
Competing
In Singapore, for example, AV technology is primarily seen as a last-mile solution to support a robust transit network in a dense city.
AVs ‘steal’ ownership from public transit systems, but the cost per mile does not become low enough to serve a large portion of society. Welcome to Uberville. The Verge, September 2016
$2.00
How Do AV Travel Costs Compare? National Center for Transit Research, 2016
$0.48/mile $0.26
$0.65
$0.50 $0.20
Personal Vehicles
Transit
TNC
Projected AV
Mixed environment
Segregation
NACTO envisions a world where driverless cars are limited to 25 mph on city streets and integrated into the dense, complex environments where people are increasingly choosing to live.
The promise of efficiency and the long transition between partially and fully autonomous vehicles leads to a mobility network defined by segregation between vehicles and people.
Policy Statement on Autonomous Vehicles. NACTO, June 2016
vs
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big decisions
The Public Realm How will autonomous mobility support efforts to reclaim the public realm? Our Stance
Regardless of who owns and operates city streets, Sasaki will continue to emphasize the public realm’s importance as an inclusive urban space for community, not simply transportation infrastructure. As roadway standards evolve along with AV technology, Sasaki seeks opportunities to create innovative streetscapes centered on people and a vibrant urban experience.
Ownership + Operation Who will be responsible for constructing roads and other major infrastructure?
Changing Roadways How will AV technology affect ROW dimensions? Will we need on-street parking?
Reclaiming the Street Will more efficent use of our travel lanes create more space for landscapes and people?
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SASAKI
Coordinated Partnerships
Weak Governance, Fragmented Ownership
Infrastructure continues to expand with predominant funding coming from local, state, and federal sources but developed using a method to accomodate AVs.
Tech companies such as Google, Nest, and Fiber may forge partnerships with State DOT’s to manage and develop road systems that are suited to their AVs.
Innovative Alignments
The efficiency of shared AVs allows for more flexible streets with fewer lanes and new curbside uses. The residual right of way can be reclaimed for public space or new development, leading to healthier, safer, and more affordable cities.
Status Quo
21st Century Main Street
As AVs become mainstream and traditional retail is transformed by new distribution chains, streets are valued more than ever as civic spaces for community and recreation.
Poor coordination between public and private entities leads to inefficient adoption of new technology and inconsistent standards.
vs Missed Opportunities
Affordability, convenience, and efficiency of AVs creates a demand for more travel. Roadway capacity is simply allowed to increase, offsetting the benefits of shared ridership and more efficient navigation technologies.
Driverless Future?
Interstitial Spaces
The evolution of roadways into high-tech infrastructure leads to new standards and designs that focus on creating an environment compatible with AVs at the expense of the human experience.
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big decisions
Land Use + Urban Transformation The automobile and ability to travel on a regional scale led to an era of urban expansion and transformed land use in existing cities. How will AVs affect development patterns and land use? Our Stance
Sasaki will promote AV technology as a tool to enable more efficient, livable, and sustainable cities. From site designs to city and regional plans, Sasaki seeks to explore the potential to minimize the impact of our urban footprint at all scales.
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Driving How much will we choose to drive? Coordination among individual vehicles and increased ridesharing has the potential to increase roadway capacity by two to four times. However, as driving becomes cheaper and easier, will people choose to make more trips and longer commutes? Autonomous Vehicles and Commercial Real Estate. Cornell Real Estate Review, June 2016
Parking On average, 31% of urban space is devoted to parking. AVs bring the potential to free up valuable urban space by reducing the amount of parking needed and increasing the flexibility of its location. How will cities take advantage of this opportunity? The High Cost of Free Parking. Donald Shoup, 2011.
Living Where will We Choose to Live?
SASAKI
Lower VMT
Increased VMT
Coordinated driving and increased ridesharing reduce the amount of cars on the road by 70% during rush hour. Existing right-of-way can be redeveloped or used to create open spaces and an enhanced public realm.
vs
Urban Transit’s Uncertain Future. PBS, 2016
Unlocked Potential
The amount of parking space is reduced by up to 42%, and much of the remaining demand can be relocated to free up valuable urban space. Ten Ways Autonomous Driving Could Redefine the Automotive World. McKinsey & Company, 2015
x500 million parking spaces in the US
Lower costs and more convenience will lead to more VMTs, overall leading to more congestion and continued dominance of the public realm by vehicles.
=
3,590 sq miles
Missed Opportunity
The long lifespan of parking structures and a failure to anticipate reduced demand leads to a surplus of parking structures that cannot be repurposed and are expensive to redevelop.
=
State of RI
+
State of DE
Source: New York Times
Dense and Efficient
A range of new mobility options and building types will make urban living more convenient and affordable. Ridesharing and on-demand transit will support ‘missing middle’ neighborhoods, leading to less sprawl and blurring the distinction between suburban and urban densities.
Sprawling and Decentralized
The ability to be productive or social while traveling will enable longer commutes and encourage the growth of sprawling cities and regions.
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Urban Design Opportunities // How does this principled approach translate into urban design? // How can urban designers anticipate the places that will be most impacted by AVs? // What is our role as a mediator between the engineering and financial goals that influence mobility providers, and the desire to make our cities safe, sustainable, equitable, and pleasant places to live? // How can we design environments and systems that amplify opportunities and solve the challenges presented by new mobility platforms?
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32 Region + City 34 Urban Neighborhood 36 Campus 38 Downtown 40 Airport 41 Industrial 42 Suburb
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urban design opportunities
Region + City In many contemporary cities, highways and long commutes define regional connectivity. AVs have the potential to strengthen regional transit systems, scale back the need for highway infrastructure, and make regional commuting patterns more efficient.
1 Mile
“From an architectural point of view, the city of tomorrow won’t look fundamentally different from the city of today—just as ancient Rome doesn’t differ all that much from the cities we’re familiar with today. What will change, however, is the way we experience it— especially from the point of view of traveling.” Carlo Ratti How Driverless Cars Can Reshape Our Cities. Curbed, 2016
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1 Mile
Rail and Transit Hubs AVs could function as seamless last mile solutions for regional rail services, strengthening the demand for existing rail lines.
SASAKI
Arterial Roads Some arterial roads may be converted into efficient AV-only routes, allowing space for trails and open spaces.
Highways Highways and other limited access routes may be the first places where AVs can drive, creating more efficient regional commutes and freeing up complex intersections for open space and redevelopment.
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urban design opportunities
Urban Neighborhood AVs may have the most impact in a diverse range of urban neighborhoods that aren’t quite dense enough to support mass transit.
The emergence of AVs has the potential to complement the demand for neighborhoods that combine the urban amenties of city-living with the space and privacy of suburbia. These neighborhoods — where residential streets might be lined with townhouses, triple deckers and smaller single family lots — may be the ideal context for AVs because of their demographics and urban fabric.
Local Roads A need to create a segregated environment for AVs could lead to inhospitable neighborhood roads.
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SASAKI
Arterial Roads
Housing
AVs could eliminate many negative impacts of major arterials. Traffic signals, speed bumps and guard rails could be eliminated, and more space created for people.
Medium density neighborhoods that are not well served by mass transit could be transformed by the adoption of shared AVs.
Commercial Centers Commercial streets, where short-term parking often competes with space for bikes and pedestrians could be transformed by new curbside uses and safer pedestrian crossings.
Parking Opportunities to reduce surface and structured parking could free up valuable sites for new development and open spaces.
Transit Stations AV platforms could serve as a last mile connection, expanding access to regional rail and transforming the design of stations. 35
urban design opportunities
Campus The impact of AVs could complement the emphasis on communal living, the priority of landscapes over roadways, and the need for more academic space within a finite campus area. Suburban institutions, where shuttles are often needed to transport students across campus and large parking lots take up valuable space, will likely be see the most transformative impacts from AVs. Shared vehicles and shuttles may allow different uses to be dispersed among multiple campuses and create greater flexibility for off-campus housing and commuter students.
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Student Housing AVs could disperse campus uses, leading to more diverse housing options but a less vibrant student experience.
SASAKI
Campus Connections
Parking Areas
Loading Areas
Classes might begin when students step into a mobile classroom to go to campus, allowing more efficient academic scheduling and space allocation.
Reduced parking requirements could unlock valuable infill opportunities for academic and student life.
Loading docks could be reduced in size due to automatization. Service can happen during the night.
Recreation Tailgating before a big game might disappear without privately owned cars (or maybe not).
Roadways The amount and scale of on-campus roadways could be reduced, creating more space for iconic and recreational open spaces.
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urban design opportunities
Downtown In downtown areas, often the densest areas in their regions, AVs may allow cities to use valuable space more efficiently. In the public realm, the need for fewer vehicles could allow cities to prioritize streets for people, with safer intersections, dynamic curbside uses, and more space devoted to sidewalks and open space. Eliminating the need for surface and structured parking could lead to innovative new building types, making downtown living more affordable and convenient. Dynamic mobility platforms could help manage peak traffic, decrease congestion, and reduce the impact of highway interchanges on the urban fabric.
Curbside Parking Curbside parking could be replaced with public spaces. Dynamic pick-up and dropoff zones could chase major events around the city.
Structured Parking Podium and underground parking in existing buildings could be converted to usable space, or replaced with innovative new building types that are not constrained by the need to provide parking.
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SASAKI
Historic Downtown Landmarks and historic squares that are isolated by confusing intersections can become connected public spaces.
Historic Street Network Narrow historic streets designed before automobiles could be pedestrianized and incorporated into dynamic superblocks according to demand and events.
Infrastructure Network Car-oriented infrastructure such as highway interchanges and bridges free up space for infill opportunities.
Transit Hubs Multimodal transit hubs could be designed to coordinate a range of transportation options, from autonomous minibuses to regional rail.
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urban design opportunities
Airport AVs could help to significantly improve access to airports by transforming parking and ground transportation. However, a revenue stream may need to replace the significant income provided by parking fees. Parking Areas
Rental Car Center
Airport parking could become a regional center for AV parking and maintenence.
Rental car company infrastructure could be reused as pick-up and drop-off locations or as charging and storage locations for AV fleets.
Drop-Off / Pick-Up Areas Airport drop-off becomes simpler and more coordinated. 40
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Industrial AVs could help to reduce the negative impacts of freight and logistics, allowing industry to better coexist with other types of urban fabric.
Waterfronts More efficient automated ports with smaller footprints could coexist with other types of waterfront development.
Warehouse & Logistics Center Logistic centers could become more compact and efficient due to 24-hour scheduling, reducing the space needed for parking and narrower turning radius. 41
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Suburb Sprawling Subdivisions
AVs bring the potential to create more compact and connected suburbs. However, there is a very real possibility that the convenience of AVs could incentivize low density sprawl. AVs would allow a greater freedom of mobility for children, the elderly, and other people who are not able to drive. The ease of mobility could encourage residential sprawl, but also reduce the footprint of retail and lead to more compact, sustainable, and walkable town centers.
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The convenience of AVs could encourage greater development of low density subdivisions and neighborhoods streets that prioritize vehicles.
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Schools AVs could bring greater freedom of mobility to students too young to drive and reduce the need for drop-off and parking areas.
Vehicle Storage Areas As parking is eliminated in more urban areas and individual properties, regional AV hubs for storage and maintenance could be located in suburban areas.
Commuter Rail Stations AVs could serve as seamless lastmile solutions, boosting commuter rail ridership and allowing for smaller stations with reduced parking.
Malls and Big-Box Retail The vast seas of surface parking around suburban retail could be replaced by infill development and open space, allowing for more sustainable stormwater management. As online shopping and other retail innovations become more commonplace, suburban shopping centers may become places for entertainment and recreation, or even evolve into town centers. 43
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Urban Design Strategies // Each of the urban design strategies presented here are linked to policies and strategies that emerged from conversations with policymakers and city leaders. // By imagining how urban streets and destinations could be improved by AVs, we can inform the broader initiatives shaping the development of AVs, and help to craft them in a way that facilitates the future we hope to live in. // As city leaders and engineers develop policies and standards for the coming decades, urban designers can create compelling visions to test and support these initiatives.
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46 A Hierarchy of Destinations 50 Digital + Physical Infrastructure 52 Reclaimed Open Space 54 Campus Strategies 56 Downtown Strategies 58 Urban Neighborhood Strategies 60 Conclusion
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A Hierarchy of Destinations As ridesharing becomes more prevalent, can a hierarchy of mobility hubs integrate different scales of AVs with public transit, creating new neighborhood centers around local and citywide destinations?
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Designated Drop-off and Pick-up Areas Rather than allowing AVs to drop of passengers anywhere, they are incentivized to use designated areas consolidated along neighborhood corridors.
Expanded Public Realm
Urban Ecology
A combination of building design guidelines and streamlined roadway design creates an expanded public realm around mobility hubs
An expanded public realm includes opportunities to invest in rain gardens and other green infrastructure that increases resilience of city streets.
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Integrated and Accessible Interfaces
Intelligent Infrastructure Prioritizes Safety
As federal, state, and local governments play a leading role in developing connected networks, mobility hubs include platforms that seamlessly integrate public transit with private options.
Consolidating pick-up and dropoff points at designated zones increases network efficiency and encourages connections to transit
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urban design strategies
A Hierarchy of Destinations Today, ridesharing often contributes to congestion as drivers double park, waste time circling to find the exact location of a passenger. The alternative is a wellinformed hierarchy of destinations and streets that defines where vehicles and passengers can wait. Local roads might be accessed primarily by residents, delivery and emergency vehicles. Designated pick-up and drop-off spots can be created along commercial streets and intersections. Finally, community destinations, like schools, hospitals, and parks, can be designed with larger pickup and drop-off zones that allow surface parking to be converted into public spaces and amenities. Whether enforced by policies, or encouraged by incentives, a coordinated network of streets and destinations will help to maximize the potential of shared AVs. 48
Support Destinations Along Main Streets Consolidating pick-up and dropoff points at designated zones increases network efficiency and encourages connections to transit
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Prioritize Local Access Limiting access to residents or charging more for drop-offs along local streets activates the public realm.
Create Areas for Major Destinations and Events Dynamic pick-up and drop-off zones can be permanent near major destinations, or temporary spaces that follow events and festivals as needed.
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urban design strategies
Digital + Physical Infrastructure
Transi
How can we create more efficient transportation networks, from vehicle navigation to curbside management, reducing the width needed for roadways and allow streets to be prioritized as public spaces?
provid cho
Reduced Righ Dedicated to
Fewer lanes, intellig management, and e on-street parking allo be prioritized as publ
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Provide a Range of Mobility Platforms
Coordinated Navigations and V2V Communication
Intelligent Infrastructure to Guide Vehicles
it authorities work to develop partnerships with mobility ders, ensuring that a range of oices are available at different price points and accessibility options.
Federal, state and city governments develop open standards, enact policies, and build the capacity to coordinate data for planning and operations of AVs across different platforms.
Public Works and Transportation Departments introduces infrastructure to guide AVs, adding an extra level of safety and reinforcing standards for liability.
ht of Way o Vehicles
gent curbside elimination of ow streets to lic spaces for people.
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Compact Urban Building Types Cities develop regulations and incentives that encourage architects and developers to explore new compact urban building types
Connecting Landscapes and Amenities Digital and physical interfaces blend public and private space, allowing ground floor spaces to function as an extension of the public realm as passengers wait for their rides
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Opportunities for Open Spaces and Amenities Digital and physical interfaces blend public and private space, allowing ground floor spaces to function as an extension of the public realm as passengers wait for their rides
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Reclaimed Urban Space As shared AVs become a viable last mile solution and development becomes more evenly distributed across neighborhoods, how can landuse and building codes create opportunities for designers and developers to explore more compact building types and integrated site designs?
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urban design strategies
Campus
Active Edges Reduced surface parking allows the edge of campus to be reclaimed as green space or developed as an urban edge
Neighborhood Gateway Fewer vehicles and safer infrastructure enables the streets around campuses to be redesigned to prioritize pedestrians and cyclists
Main Street Partnerships Opportunities for infill development to create a stronger campus entrance, activate the public realm, and provide economic opportunities for local businesses and developers.
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Inter-Campus Connections Small, frequent shuttle services connect campuses, allowing for greater collaboration and learning opportunities.
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Room to Grow Surface parking can be developed as new areas of campus to provide much-needed student housing, academic, or research facilities and create a stronger campus edge.
Community Connections Fleets of autonomous shuttles connect with communities across the city and, providing opportunities for nontraditional learning and easier faculty commutes.
Neighborhood Amenities Surface parking can be converted as recreational buffer space, providing recreational amenties for both students and adjacent communities. 55
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Downtowns
Dynamic Superblocks Prioritizing local roads for residents, service, and emergency vehicles allows them to be redesigned as shared streets.
Pedestrian Crossings Sensors embedded in infrastructure communicate with cars to prioritize pedestrians based on the time of day, creating safer and more flexible crossings.
Downtown Destinations Larger drop-off and pick-up zones can be designated at major destinations and events to reduce congestion at specific times .
Last Mile Connections Autonomous shuttles at outlying stations support commuter transit, and increase access to downtowns while reducing congestion.
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Flexible Streets Open data standards and real-time traffic management can allow the flow and use of lanes to change across different times and days, leading to more efficient and compact urban roadways.
Activated Podiums Podium and underground parking in existing buildings could be converted to active uses, or replaced with innovative new building types that are not constrained by the need to provide parking.
Reclaimed Public Spaces AVs will free up space that can be reclaimed for transformative community spaces, green infrastructure, or infill development.
Vehicle service and storage Facilities for servicing vehicles located in interstitial spaces free up valuable downtown locations and provide capacity to calibrate the supply of cars on the road.
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Urban Neighborhoods
Main Streets for People An AV shuttle network can allow space for people to be prioritized along main streets lined with businesses and cafes.
Local Access Designated streets for pick-up and dropoff improve safety and efficiency.
Residential Streets Limiting access to certain street for vehicles creates safer neighborhoods for families.
Mixed-Use Hubs Large surface parking lots provide opportunities to create housing and workspaces around mobility hubs.
Community Spaces Surface parking around churches and other destinations can be used as community space. 58
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Micro-Mobility Options
Neighborhood Centers
A range of AVs can be optimized to create a fine-grained network that complements rail and bus service along main streets.
Better routing, consolidated pickup spots, and coordination could streamline intersections and allow them to be reclaimed as neighborhood centers.
Dynamic Mobility Hubs Mobility hubs located along main streets improve ridesharing efficiency and support neighborhood destinations.
Schools and Community
Service and Storage
A combination of shuttles, transit, and personal AVs could reduce the need for driveways and create more pleasant places for learning.
In a future of electric vehicles, new types of repair shops and vehicle storage facilities will be strategically located. Corners occupied by gas stations can be remediated and converted. 59
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In Conclusion // There are many alternative futures, and rather than simply wait and hope for the best, we must pick which ones to support through our designs, advocacy, and partnerships with our counterparts in the automotive, technology, and public sectors. // The most visionary design strategies and concepts will be bold, intentional, and aware that new technology is a means to achieve larger goals for our cities and societies. // Representations of the built environment are powerful tools around which to shape a dialogue. As urban planners and designers, we have the opportunity to envision how an emerging technology — AVs — can lead towards more equitable and livable cities. At the same time, we must not be naive. It is our responsibility to advocate for these principles and use our agency to realize the cities we envision.
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Further Reading The AV Landscape Street Wars 2035: Can Cyclists and Driverless Cars Ever Co-Exist? The Guardian, June 2017 Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action. Stanford Center for Information and Society, April 2017 Here’s How Self-Driving Cars will Transform Your City. Wired, October 2016 Self-Driving Car Timeline for 11 Top Automakers, Venturebeat, June 2017 Accelerating the Future: The Economic Impact of the Emerging Passenger Economy. Strategy Analytic, July 2017 Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Study. Boston Consulting Group, 2017 Self-Driving Cars Will Improve Our Cities. If They Don’t Ruin Them. Wired, August 2016
Big Decisions Automated Driving Systems 2.0: A Vision for Safety. USDOT, September 2017 Welcome to Uberville. The Verge, September 2016 Evaluation of Autonomous Vehicle Technology for Transit. NCTR, April 2016 Policy Statement on Autonomous Vehicles. NACTO, June 2016 Urban Transit’s Uncertain Future. PBS, 2016 Ten Ways Autonomous Driving Could Redefine the Automotive World. McKinsey & Company, 2015 Autonomous Vehicles and Commercial Real Estate. Cornell Real Estate Review, June 2016 How Driverless Cars Can Reshape Our Cities. Curbed, 2016
