APRIL 2013 VOL. 25, NO. 4
FOCUS
观点 新国五条将对二手住宅市场产生重大影响
REPORT KNIGHT FRANK POINTS TOWARD THE BEST COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS AROUND THE WORLD
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE 商业地产
Reaching capacity 极速膨胀 Commercial real estate surges on a residential cool off 如火如荼的商业地产
CONTENTS 目 录 FOCUS Published monthly since 1990 Publisher China Economic Review Publishing Co-Editor Philip Liu, Don Weinland Contributors Sam Reynolds Kelvin Panitpichetvong Designer Jennifer Zhang
CREDIT: ImagineChina
Editor at Large
12 封面报道
Graham Earnshaw
商业地产如火如荼
Associate Publisher Gareth Powell Director of Sales
对部分一二线城市零售物业和写字楼市场的
Pierre Zolghadri
回顾与展望
20 REPORT
In every direction
CER FOCUS This is the 78th in a series of special reports in CHINA
Commercial property is back as private investors look to increase their exposure to the global economic recovery. Knight Frank’s The Wealth Report 2013 shows Chinese investors where the smart money is heading
6/8 焦点 News Briefs 地产行业重要新闻
Commercial real estate news
2013年4月刊
Looking for a green future 寻找绿色能源
Illustrator：Twoqee
电动汽车再发力 徒步穿越中国 医改突破口
Advertiser index Kerry Plaza Shenzhen inside front cover Chengdu Bai Yang Industry p4-p5
9
p7 REDEV p11 IFC Guangzhou p13
观点: 解读房产新政
“新国五条” 将对二手住宅市场产生重 大影响
FOCUS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Could China’s residential property restrictions lead to over investment in the commercial market?
REDEV
ECONOMIC REVIEW.
APRIL 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 4 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com
18 Report: Bubbling over
10 访谈: 调则立 不调则退 关于房地产市场中长期发展趋势及发 展路径的思考
AtlasBlue Property p15 Sino-Ocean/Swire Properties inside back cover Sun Hung Kai Properties outside back cover
China Economic Review • April 2013
3
目前的10%逐步扩大到20%。去年 万科在全国拿下纯商业用地达122 万平方米，纯商业拿地约占去年万 科所拿商业综合用地总量11%，比 2011年增加4倍以上。
恒隆拟武汉投120亿建综合体 恒隆地产近年将业务重心转移至内 地，去年内地租金收入增长18%， 增幅远高于香港。恒隆地产目前已
焦点
在上海、沈阳、天津、大连、济 南、无锡、昆明开发项目。今年2 月，恒隆地产于武汉市投得一黄金 地块；作商用物业发展用途，作价 人民币33亿。拟投资120亿元建大 CREDIT: ImagineChina
保利地产销售额超过千亿
型综合购物中心。
达到千亿，超过李嘉诚净资产总和。
人均商业物业超发达国家
继万科之后，保利地产成为全国第 二家年销售额超过1000亿的房地
任志强称房价总体稳中有升
中国指数研究院上海研究总监陈延
产企业。保利地产董事长宋广菊表
华远地产董事长任志强在美国沃顿
彬表示，发达国家人均商业物业面
示，保守估计到2020年公司将实现
商学院发表演讲时称，由于商品房
积1.2平方米，而在中国，上海、广
2000亿目标。对于海外项目拓展，
新增供应增长仍可能处于下降态
州等一线城市人均商业物业面积已
今明两年或先进入非洲。保利地产
势，房价总体呈现稳中有升态势。
超过了这个数字，二线城市也在快
今年将有近300亿资金用于投资土
他也承认，如果政策调整会对房地
速向这一数字靠近。
地储备。
产市场的变化产生影响。
大型购物中心或现泡沫化 恒大地产年销售额近千亿
3月六成楼盘价格上涨
根据世邦魏理仕统计，目前全球在
恒大地产发布2012年度业绩报告显
根 据网易房产楼盘库统计，今年3
建购物中心面积最多的10个城市
示，全年销售额923.2亿元，净利
月，在调查的一百个楼盘中，成交均
中，有7个位于中国，其中天津、沈
润为91.8亿元，位列中海、万科之
价较上月有所上涨（涨幅超过1%）的
阳、成都位列全球前三。天津目前
后。恒大2012年在建面积、竣工面
项目猛增至61个，而成交均价持平（涨
约有16个在建购物中心项目，沈阳
积等多方面继续蝉联内地第一；而
跌幅不超过1%）的项目有28个，成
市中心区域在建综合体项目超过40
在销售额、营业额、总资产等指标
交均价下降（跌幅超过1%）的项目
个，成都已开工建设的商业综合体
则位居在港上市房企第一。
仅11个。3月份市场成交量爆发，房
高达104个。中国购物中心产业资
价也开始攀升。
讯中心保守估计，到2012年年底，
李嘉诚在内地香港加速卖楼
全国购物中心累计投资额或突破1万
李嘉诚近期再次表达了继续投资中
商业地产投资或将翻番
亿。引发业内人士对购物中心泡沫
国内地的浓厚兴趣，他称看好深圳
仲量联行今年1月发布的研究报告预
化的担忧。
前海作为金融中心发展潜力，可能
计，2030年前全球每年商业房地产
部署投资。长实集团今年内地楼盘
直接投资额将在现有基础上增长1倍
外资零售商出现关店潮
销售占集团总销售额的比例将由
以上，达到1万亿美元。目前投资者
从去年至今，卜蜂莲花、家乐福、
10%增至逾20%，创历史新高；
已将更多资本投入商业地产，这一
沃尔玛、乐购等洋超市巨头出现关
并将在香港继续推五大项目，套现
趋势在亚太市场尤为明显。
店潮。沃尔玛将在今年4月关闭沃尔
300亿港元。
6
玛无锡红星路店、深圳园岭店和上
万科加速布局商业地产
海闵行店，称此举是为了优化商业
严介和扬言投百亿建沪最高楼
一线城市纯住宅地块供应减少，万
布局。外资零售商本土化陷困境，
上海苏商集团董事长严介和近日宣
科商业地产发展明显加速。最新统
人工成本和租金上升以及电商冲击
称，苏商集团要做上海最大的民营
计数据显示，截至去年12月初，万
是导致利润下降的主要原因。
企业，计划5年内投资100亿建成上海
科在全国已经有17个城市综合体项
第一高楼，2016年旗下企业净利润将
目正在操作，非住宅业务占比将从
China Economic Review • April 2013
（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）
黄金区域 低风险、高回报的投资机遇，坐享加拿大西部经济繁荣的优势及 其堪比任何发达国家的商业地产连锁效应
当
今动荡的全球经济使众多投资者
投资者提供丰厚的利润。
自2003年起长期维持在95%以上）成
感到迷茫。中国住宅房地产市场
在30年的经营历史中，自2001
为租金上升的推动力。在亚伯达，租金
一蹶不振，人民币汇率也经历了表现最
年迄今，REDEV的创始人已经开发了
仍保持低位，为未来的租金和资本价值
差的一年。然而，在世界的某些区域，
逾11,000单元的住宅地产，并帮助逾
上升提供了空间。
经济却持续繁荣。如加拿大西部富产石
5,000投资者成为加拿大29座商场的合
油的省份亚伯达及其邻省萨斯喀彻温，
伙所有人。
而加拿大元则是投资者安全的避险天
加拿大西部的人口统计数据令全世 界艳羡。该地区房产价格可承受，人口
在投资者中，三分之二是加拿大居
不断增多，失业率下降。零售额增长快
民，很多人就住在商场附近，这充分说
于地区人口增长，通胀较低，经济学家
全球经济衰退对加拿大西部影响甚
明了其地理位置的优越和地产的价值。
预测，这个拥有4百万人口的地区，在
微，该地区因丰富的石油、天然气、农
这一模式为投资者提供直接和持续的现
未来10年将新增60万个就业机会。
田、钾肥、钻石和铀储藏，正处于资源
金流和可观的资本收益。当地产出售
加拿大商业地产为亚洲投资者在
推动的经济繁荣期。传统的石油和天然
时，投资者支付相对低廉的税收，同时
当今动荡的全球经济中提供安全的避险
气储藏覆盖亚伯达的半数地区，而过去
从加拿大严格的商业法中受益，也无需
天堂。商业地产为通胀提供风险对冲，
10年的技术革新正在打开该地区丰富的
承担政府限价政策的风险。
比住宅地产更稳健，比股票的波动更
堂。
含油沙储藏。包括道达尔(Total SA)和
REDEV公司不是投机性公司。公
少。然而，对于投资者而言，很难或
中石化(Sinopec)在内的世界最大的能
司从经济迅速增长地区现有的、区位优
几乎不可能靠自己的力量进入商业地
源公司，在该地区大举投资，其目的是
越的主要商业地产中获得稳定收益。该
产。REDEV公司给投资者提供可承受
帮助亚伯达在2018年之前将石油产量
模式紧扣加拿大经济和商业地产稳定性
的市场进入水准，使投资者轻易获得低
翻番。
的两大积极趋势，特别提供5年期固定
风险，高回报的投资机遇。当今全球经
中国的投资者或许会疑惑于如何
利率抵押贷款，并以REDEV Proper-
济充满不确定性，还有什么时候比现在
才能在这强劲增长的盛宴中分一杯羹，
ties名义提供5-10年的租金逐年递增
转向安全投资、乐观银行账户余额渐增
请访问REDEV P roperties(www.re-
形出租。
更加理想呢？
devproperties.com)房地产公司，为您 呈现低风险、高回报的投资机会。
加拿大的资源繁荣刺激了经济其它 部门的增长。零售业空间供应短缺。加
成立于1981年的REDEV Proper-
拿大人均零售面积仅为美国的一半，零
ties公司向投资者提供在经济不断增长
售需求持续飙升。而亚伯达和萨斯喀彻
的加拿大城市成为现存主要商业地产合
温省尤其如此，这里的居民拥有加拿大
伙所有人的机会。REDEV公司帮助提
最高的可支配收入和最低的失业率。加
升购物广场的盈利潜能，在这一过程中
拿大对零售业空间不断上升的需求使进
使投资者收益最大化。在4到7年后，公
驻率高企（据国际研究咨询公司高力公
司出售这些购物广场或进行再融资，为
司(Colliers)的数据，埃德蒙顿的进驻率
更多信息，请致电本公司上海办事处 +86 21 6103 7119 访问www.redevproperties.com或 发送电邮至 infocanada@redevproperties.com
News briefs
CREDIT: ImagineChina
Demand for Beijing’s commercial real estate spikes in March Beijing’s commercial real estate market spiked in early March with sales rising by 320.5% even as the Chinese government pushes measures to cool the housing sector. As of March 1, the authorities levied a 20% tax on the profit of the sale of residential real estate, forcing investors to move to commercial real estate and lower-taxed residential real estate. The previous tax had been up to 2%. A spokesman for Century 21, a real estate brokerage, said that 759 commercial units changed hands during the first 10 days of March. Registration for pre-sales of Jin Mao Place, a yetto-be constructed tower in Beijing’s Central Business District, closed after one day due to huge demand. Unlikely market players enter commercial real estate A potential commercial real estate boom coming on the wings of a rapidly urbanizing China has resulted in some unorthodox players entering the market. In July 2012, Chinese beverage maker Wahaha started the trend with its announcement that it would diversify into commercial 8
China Economic Review • April 2013
real estate. Fellow beverage maker Kingway Brewery followed suit in February, selling its beer-making business to rival Snow Beer and converting its Shenzhen factory into a commercial district. Soybean milk producer VV Group announced it would also enter the market on February 20 with a US$12.73 million (RMB 80 million) joint partnership with another firm to invest and manage real estate. Overseas investors eye Chinese commercial real estate China’s commercial real estate market, particularly the one in Shanghai, will see an uptick in the number of large-scale property transactions as international investors bet big on China’s continuing growth. Andy Zhang, a director at real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield China, said several deals are in the pipeline after long negotiations last year. Shanghai is a focal point for many multinational firms looking to expand into the Asia-Pacific, said Regina Yang, of research firm Knight Frank Shanghai. Due to limited supply, the average vacancy rate of Shanghai’s Grade-A office real estate stayed steady at 5.1%.
CICC pessimistic on China’s commercial real estate boom China’s International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicted a recent boom in commercial real estate is not likely to last. CICC said that China’s new monetary policy that looks to tighten access to credit will mean shrinking the financing options available for commercial real estate transactions and therefore dampen growth in the sector. According to CICC, real estate sales will decrease during the second and third quarters of 2013. Hong Kong commercial properties attract mainland investors State-owned enterprises, large private firms and other mainland investors are increasingly targeting commercial real estate in Hong Kong, the US, the UK and Australia. Jones Lang LaSalle estimated US$2.5 billion in offshore investment transactions in commercial real estate took place last year. About 44% of the investments have been targeted at Hong Kong and the property firm expects to see this trend continue. The first eight months of last year saw non-financial outbound direct investment increase 39.4% year-on-year.
观点
解读房产新政 新国五条将对二手住宅市场产生重大影响 文 | 翁琳 高力国际华东及西南区暨物业投资服务中国区董事总经理
去
年下半年以来，随着首套刚需
供应量有所增加，这同时会对业主的
税负压力转嫁给买家，
购房人群以及改善型购房人群
对外报价产生一定的下行压力，尽管
需求量的变化主要取决
业主大幅降价抛售的可能性不大。
于买家对于更高价格的
的入市，全国大多数一二线城市的房 价和销售额双双上涨。国务院出台的
从需求方面来看，由于担忧政策
接受程度。尽管首套刚
新国五条旨在促进房地产市场健康平
落实之后卖家可能将新的税负压力转
需及改善型买家对于价
稳发展，抵制房价过快上涨与投机性
嫁到买家身上，之前处于观望的买家
格变动的敏感度相对投
购房行为。
在短期可能尽快出手。所以，短期内
资型卖家而言较低，从
首套刚需和改善型需求会有所增加。
而该类需求的影响较
新国五条主要包括以下七个要
翁琳
点：完善和贯彻房价调控工作，制定
综上所述，尽管二手住房成交均
小，但也不排除部分买家暂时搁置他
年度新建商品住房价格控制目标；进
价的变化将取决于供应增大相对于需
们的置业计划，以等待未来政策的利
一步完善现行住房限购措施；进一步
求放大的幅度，不过可以预见的是未
好变化，所以总体需求量还会下降。
提高第二套住房贷款的首付款比例
来细则落实前的一段时间内，二手住
和贷款利率；对出售自有住房按差额
房的成交量将会集中释放。
总体而言，在供给和需求均下降 的情况下，成交量会降低，但我们预
20%征收的个人所得税；加快推进扩
地方执行细则落实后，可能对二
大房产税试点工作；增加住房用地供
手住房市场产生两方面影响。首先部
高端住宅市场方面，调控新政对
应；加快保障性安居工程规划建设。
分卖家将出现观望心态，而导致挂牌
其影响或将更为明显。改善型以及投
量以及供应量的下降。另外部分卖家
资型买家是高端住宅市场的两大主
可能会通过提高挂牌价的方式将额外
力需求，这两类客户对于价格更加敏
地方政府和人民银行分支机构将
税负转嫁给买方。对于第一种情况，
感。受价格增长（卖方将税负压力转
具体负责政策的落实情况。政策效果
卖家之前持有物业的期限会对其决策
嫁给买房）、买卖净收益下降（所得
可以从两个时间段来论述：即从目前
产生一定影响，由于之前的规定是持
税）以及持有成本上升（房产税）的
到地方配套细则落地这段时间以及细
有满五年且是唯一住房的可免征个人
影响，买家可能会搁置他们的置业计
则落地之后。
所得税。如果该规定继续执行，未满
划，从而会使高端住宅的需求量相比
在地方细则出台和落实之前，卖
五年持有期限的卖家可能会采取等待策
低端市场有更为明显的下降，而导致
方出于规避额外税负的考虑，可能增
略，这会进一步降低二手住房挂牌量。
成交价格的下降更为显著。
加二手住房的挂牌量，使二手住房的
在第二种情况下，如果卖方要将
新政的出台将对国内二手住宅市 场的供求产生重要的影响。
计成交均价可能保持平稳。
总的来说，在新政执行细则出台 之前，二手住房成交量将会有一波成 交高峰。而在政策落实之后，我们预 计成交量会下降。然而，在高端住宅 市场方面，成交均价将可能出现更为 显著的下降，普通住宅市场的成交均 价预计将保持相对平稳。 一手住宅市场方面，受调控新政 的影响，总体成交量会有所下降。然 而，考虑到二手住宅市场销售报价 CREDIT: ImagineChina
的提高，部分买家会转而进入一手市 场，使需求量下降幅度有限。但从长 期来看，鉴于未来需求减少的考虑， 开发商会相应地调整开工进度和拿地 策略。
China Economic Review • April 2013
9
访谈
调则立 不调则废 关于房地产市场中长期发展趋势及发展路径的思考
目
前中国房地产市场反映出来 的真实需求和潜在需求仍然
比较大，但从投资的角度看，更关 注行业发展的中长期趋势。近期， 诺亚财富管理中心助理研究总监孙 治香在回答本刊提问时，就影响房 地产市场的中长期因素做出分析， 并对中国房地产行业的中长期趋 势、发展路径和价值链的变迁做出 自己判断。
问：影响房地产市场发展的主 导因素是什么？ 答：国际经验显示，实际房价指数 与人口年龄结构密切相关，人口逆
CREDIT: ImagineChina
抚养比的上升会导致青壮年人口增
问：推进城镇化的主要难点在 哪里？为什么？
散释放，在控制房地产泡沫的前提
而产生新增住房需求的增加，并通 过影响储蓄和收入增加改善性住房
答：用工荒和居住成本对城镇化的
为经济的转型和改革争取时间。因
需求。房价上涨会提高城镇生活成
制约作用将越来越强。要解决这两
此，房地产调控和农村土地改革带
本，制约城镇化的推进。因此，城
个问题，必须进行更深层次的改
来的将是长期稳定的行业发展机
镇化与房地产市场的发展既是促进
革，其核心在于农村土地改革。通
会。面对目前的市场及政策，我们
关系又是制约关系。房价收入比与
过农村土地改革，进行土地集约化
认为“调则立，不调则废”。
多种因素相关，对房地产市场的影
和规模化经营，中国的农业效率和
响受到所处时期和所处市场的制
土地利用率将得到提高，这将产生
问：房地产开发的前景如何？
约。人口年龄结构、城镇化和收入
三个结果：一，农村效率的提高将
答：在客观环境和政府调控的制约
三大因素中，人口年龄结构是影响
继续释放农村劳动力，为城镇化的
下，中国房价收入比将继续下降，
房地产市场发展的主导因素。
继续推进提供人口基础。二，单位
房价增长空间将进一步收窄。随着
加速度大于老年人口死亡速度，从
土地产量增加，可以释放部分土
市场的改变和改革的进行，房地产
问：未来房地产继续发展的主 要动力是什么？
地，住房土地供应增加，房价上涨
行业的产业价值链和投资机会将发
得到抑制，利于城镇化的继续推进。
生改变。在改革和调控过程中，房
答：中国人口和收入的现状是：人
三，土地确权和农村宅基地流转后，
地产市场二级市场资产升值空间逐
口逆抚养比自2010年出现拐点，形
农民工财产性收入增加，购房能力提
渐收窄，土地供应机制的改变也将
成下滑趋势，人口红利对房地产市
高。以上结果均利于城镇化的继续推
抑制土地升值空间。城镇化的继续
场的推动作用将逐渐消失。城镇化
进和房地产业的发展。
推进，将弥补人口红利的下降，住
率比较低，仍有继续推进的空间。
10
下，延长房地产行业的生命周期，
宅需求仍将存在，地产开发的空间
房价收入比偏高，居民平均购房负
问：房地产调控是否应坚持？
仍然很大。城镇化的继续推进和消
担较重。随着人口红利的下降，城
答：政府针对房价的调控政策可以
费的扩张将带来商业地产的发展机
镇化的继续推进将是未来房地产继
降低市场的价格上涨预期，降低潜
会，地产运营的利润空间扩大。城
续发展的主要动力。但是在体制不
在需求提前集中入市、房价大幅上
镇化结束后，新增需求量萎缩，地
变的情况下，城镇化的继续推进面
涨和投资短期内过度增长的风险，
产开发空间收窄，地产利润将主要
临挑战。
可以使目前的需求在未来几年分
集中于地产运营。
China Economic Review • April 2013
All eyes on Canada Commercial real estate in the Canadian province of Alberta is a safe, hasstle-free investment for investors worldwide, says Regan Richardson of REDEV Properties What are the advantages for investors in looking at the shopping mall and commercial real estate segment of the market in Canada? We find it interesting that many investors seem to think that buying residential property is the best investment in real estate. The truth of the matter is that if they do not plan to live in the property it is really not a worthwhile compared to ease of owning and managing retail commercial. Residential property has the tremendous burden on the landlord or resident to pay all the costs of taxes, maintenance, fees, compared to retail commercial where the tenant pays all these expenses. This is commonly called triple net leasing. In retail commercial real estate, the tenant pays all the costs and the landlord nets substantially more than residential property with almost no hassle. As Warren Buffet says, “any investor should only own two residential properties: one to live in and one for vacation.” REDEV makes it easy for overseas investors to invest in shopping malls through direct equity shares starting at CAD $50,000 to the millions of dollars. What economic factors make many people view Canada as a “Safe Haven” for investment in these volatile times? The Canadian banking sector is rated to be the best in the world.
mall investment opportunities? The answer is simple, “location, location, location” and a strong and complimentary tenant mix. REDEV has a proven formula of 100% success. Because we purchase existing shopping malls, we are able to review the history and look at “true data” before we acquire a retail property.
Regan Richardson
The country’s high standard of living and abundant resources make Canada one of the most desirable places to live in the world. The province of Alberta is often spoken of as a highpotential investment region these days. What the main advantages you see for investors in looking at Alberta? Alberta is benefitting from a strong economy that has been the cornerstone for Canada’s economic security. The abundance of natural resources has drawn Canadians from every province in search of jobs and a better life. This means Alberta’s provincial economy will continue to experience growth for decades due to the high global demand for oil, gas, uranium, and potash. What are the key factors investors should consider when making a choice between different shopping
CO-PUBLISHED Q&A
INTERVIEW • REGAN RICHARDSON
What factors would make now a good time for investors to look at this kind of opportunity? Our shopping malls benefit from Alberta’s low unemployment, extremely low vacancy rates, and robust job growth over the next decade, if not decades. Investors looking for low risk investments with high yield returns reinvest over and over again with us because we have 100% record of success. This investment is perfect as a medium hold investment that can produce returns in 4-7 years of 15%-20% P.A. on average. How does Canada stack up against other countries as a place for foreign investment? Why? Canada stacks up quite impressively against other countries in the foreign investment category. It has the most stable banking system in the world and a strong currency that puts it at the top for foreign investment. This is why REDEV’s motto is “simple, stable, secure.” China Economic Review • April 2013
11
封面报道
CREDIT: ImagineChina
商业地产如火如荼 对部分一二线城市零售物业和写字楼市场的回顾与展望
12
文 | 晗军
商
业地产的发展在中国各大城
经济学人智库数据显示，中国
办公楼，为市场带来亟需的高品质
市可谓如火如荼。仲量联
零售业销售总额预计在去年底将占
物业。报告还称，成都、重庆、大
行今年1月发布的最新研究报告预
亚太地区53%，与2008年相比增
连、杭州、南京、沈阳、苏州、天
计，2030年前全球每年商业房地产
长43%。中国消费能力渐被世界认
津和武汉等9座城市已从竞争中脱
直接投资额将在现有基础上增长一
可，国际零售商争相进入中国拓展市
颖而出，正借力大规模的基础设施
倍以上，达到1万亿美元。目前投资
场。不可否认的是，这个充满潜力巨
建设和经济发展。成都已崛起为新
者已将更多资本投入商业房地产，
大的市场极具独特性和挑战性。
兴城市50强中首屈一指的房地产市
这一趋势在亚太市场尤为明显。而
北京、上海、深圳和广州在全国
场，重庆、沈阳和天津的增长势头
中原地产的数据显示，自2010年开
范围内有着最多的奢侈品网点，但
最强劲，武汉和西安具备综合多个
始，中国内地商业地产的月均开发
高力国际发表的最新分析报告《解锁
物业类别的良好上行潜力。
增速达到了25%以上，是同期住宅
中国的零售潜力》指出，包括西安、
新兴城市商业物业发展势头良
开发投资增速的1.5倍，去年上半年
沈阳、哈尔滨以及长春在内的二线
好。以下是根据高力国际的研究报
更是扩大到2倍。
城市在奢侈品零售店除以每1000亿
告，对上海、北京、广州以及成
商业地产主要包括购物中心、
人民币销售额的比率已超越广州，
都、杭州、南京的零售物业和甲级
百货商场、超市、商业街、主题商
与北京、上海和深圳相比仍有一定
写字楼市场所做的回顾和展望。
场、专业市场、写字楼和酒店等；
差距，说明二线城市有赶超一线城
从经营模式、功能和用途上区别于
市的巨大潜力。
上海商业物业吸引外资进入
普通住宅、公寓和别墅等。商业地
仲量联行《中国新兴城市50
上海有着五方杂处、中西交融的
产是将地产、商业与投资融合为一
强》预计，未来10年内，中国新兴
文化特色，90%以上的国际品牌首
体的综合性行业，与当地的消费能
城市50强将新建8000万平方米的
选上海作为进入中国的第一站。浦
力密切相关。
零售物业和3000万平方米的甲级
东金融中心的崛起也为商铺的选
China Economic Review • April 2013
封面报道 择提供了多元化，从南京路以及
到2015年末，次中心商务区的
奢侈品市场榜首，消费能力不容忽
淮海路的商业中心扩大到浦东陆家
甲级写字楼存量将翻倍。尽管未来
视，但由于优质项目分布相对集中
嘴。但是，逐年提升的上海商铺租
次中心商务区将有一定量的新增供
供应量十分有限，在市场需求远大于
金也使许多商家望而生畏，高力国
应，但租金预计会进一步增长，特
供给的情况下铺位租金节节升高，对
际华东区商铺服务部董事洪淑慧认
别是随着这些经验丰富的开发商打
于零售商来说是极大的挑战。”
为，为保持上海零售业发展的领先
造的优质项目入市对该区域整体氛
地位，如何持续引进原先没有计划在
围的提升。
中国开店的国际品牌将是上海零售物
另外，北京比其他城市更容易受 到政策的影响，而略偏传统的城市
鉴于去年上海零售物业市场的
文化也影响了北京的消费观念，本
稳定表现和活跃的交易活动，今年
地人仍然以家庭式消费为主，对超
上海去年吸引外商直接投资累计
又将是值得期待的一年。尽管一些
前消费的接受程度较小。因此北京
超过150亿美元，与全国外商直接
原定于去年入市的项目推迟至今
的市场行为对于国外零售商而言相
投资总额的下降产生鲜明对比。上
年，但开发商们仍看好市场的长期
对复杂，不容易理解。
海完善的基础设施配套以及良好政
前景。预计今年将有新增供应量入
去年第四季度，北京写字楼物
策将吸引大量的投资者，这一趋势
市，如嘉里中心二期和K11购物艺
业市场需求减弱。由于新项目入市
将在今 年得以延续。
术中心将使市场总存量增加33%。高
及一些租户退租，市场整体空置率
业开发商的一大课题。
上海写字楼市场在今年会得到进
力国际预测今年至2016年期间将会
小幅上升。受制于市场租金门槛及
一步发展，租赁市场会受益于来自
有248万平方米的购物中心入市，
有限可租赁面积，一些跨国公司和
跨国企业与本土企业的设立、扩张
届时零售物业总存量较目前存量接
国内企业选择将写字间从传统核心
与升级带来的需求，尤其是金融产
近翻番。尽管今年新增供应体量较
地区迁移或扩张至较偏远区域。本
业与服务业的新增需求。政府推动
大，但是来自国内外的需求仍将保
季，资产表现维持平稳，租金和资
经济发展和产业结构优化会使写字
持旺盛。
本值录得小幅上升。
北京写字楼投资回报率萎缩
险等行业的自用型内资企业仍十分
楼市场受益。今年，核心商务区的 甲级写字楼市场预计有五个项目交
一些来自IT、金融、银行及保
付，包括华敏帝豪大厦、静安嘉里
高力国际商铺服务部中国区执
中心二期、金虹桥、南京西路688
行董事杨广安说：“北京位列全国
积极地寻求物业。相比之下，写字 楼散售市场季内交易活动更为活
号与金外滩广场。尽管未来将有一 定量的新增供应入市，平均空置率 在今 年将维持在10% 以下的健康水 平，并伴随租金的稳定增长。 在核心商务区，稳定的需求、 新入市的优质楼宇以及较低的空置 水平会使得租金年增速维持在5%到 10%的水平。由于在浦西地区的核 心地段越来越难以找到整层或多层 的大面积空间，这部分租户可能将 转移至次中心商务区，甚至是快速 发展的商务园区。成本控制也将成 为租户考虑换址的一大因素。 截至去年底，次中心商务区与商 务园区的平均租金较核心商务区的 租金水平低约40% 到60%。鉴于核 心商务区土地供应紧张，今年次中 心商务区将迎来更快的发展，如虹 口、杨浦、闵行、后世博等次中心 区域。这些区域将涌现多个写字楼 集聚区，比如位于闵行虹桥枢纽的 湾城的铁狮门尚浦领世项目，以及 位于杨浦五角场的瑞安创智天地项 目等等。
14
China Economic Review • April 2013
北京中央商务区的甲级写字楼
CREDIT: ImagineChina
瑞安虹桥天地项目，位于杨浦新江
封面报道 跃。高力国际预计，今年北京写 字楼市场需求将趋于稳定，许多国 内企业和一些跨国公司将积极寻找 写字楼面积进行搬迁和扩张。 展望未来，6个写字楼项目计划 于今年入市，将给甲级写字楼市场 带来18万平方米的新供应。因此， 市场中紧张供应和平稳需求的不平 衡有望获得某种程度的缓解。由于 新项目入市且预租率偏低，预计今 年整体空置率将小幅上升。然而， 同期资产表现预计将相对平稳，租 金和资本值将小幅上升。鉴于有限的 投资机会和自住型买家强劲的需求， 预计包括金融街和CBD等在内的一些 子市场的投资回报率萎缩仍将持续。
广州珠江中央商务区夜景
广州甲级写字楼租金下降 自2010亚运会举办以来，广州
多。为应对市场竞争，部分项目的
本季度中央商务区写字楼租赁
已逐渐从传统的百货模式转型进入
业主方通过提供租金优惠、延长免
市场表现稳定，区域空置率环比下
购物休闲娱乐为一体的购物中心新
租期等手段吸引租户。然而受年末
降；尽管整体市场平均租金连续两
时代。在两年内广州已经有近20个
会计年度结算等行政因素影响，大
季度出现下降，但该区域的租金水
大型购物中心陆续开业，这将给广
多数企业紧控财务支出，对搬迁及
平仍保持上涨趋势。中央商务区作
州的消费者带来全新的购物理念并
扩张办公场所持谨慎观望态度，本
为拥有区位、交通、配套等优势的
改变人们的消费习惯，这也意味着
季度甲级写字楼租赁市场成交表现
传统商圈，甲级写字楼市场表现长
商家在选址时也将有会新的偏好。
较为平淡，市场整体成交量有所下
期以来都较为稳定，而未来24个月
高力国际商铺服务部中国区执行董
滑，主要成交来自医疗器械、物流、
内该区域内的优质甲级写字新增供应
事林明瀚表示，在未来的一年多里
航空、金融、食品制造等行业。
有限，届时该区域的租金水平或将被
广州还将有至少80万平方米的全新
去年第四季度，广州市甲级写
项目入市，会有越来越多的品牌入
字楼销售市场延续上季度的活跃状
来福士广场的多宗租赁成交，有
驻广州，而新兴的珠江区、白云区
态，成交量与成交均价均较上季度
效拉低人民南路区域空置率。本季
以及番禺区将会成为国际品牌选址
有所上升。本季度录得全市甲级写
度该区域平均租金继续回落。本轮
的目的地。
字楼整体平均售价环比上涨1.6%。
租金下降的主要原因在于自上季度
去年第四季度，甲级写字楼市
日趋激烈的市场竞争进一步加大业
开始，部分入市较早的项目租金有
场进入传统淡季。受年末会计年度
主招租压力，租金谈判空间加大，或
所下调以应对新进优质项目竞争，
结算的影响，企业紧控财务支出，
面临一定下行压力。本季度全市甲级
在无其他宏观政策及经济环境利好
对扩张或搬迁办公场所较为审慎，
写字楼平均租金延续下降趋势。
等因素影响下，预期这一价格策略
市场对优质写字楼的租赁需求有所 减弱。尽管广州市甲级写字楼租赁
16
持续增长的租赁需求继续推高。
还将延续一至两个季度。
成都甲级写字楼竞争加剧
东大街区域在最近两个季度表现
市场表现相对平淡，本季度仍然录
成都甲级写字楼市场在去年第四
稳定，优质甲级写字楼的整体空置
得多宗租赁成交，主要来自医疗器
季度未有新项目入市。本季度优质
率和平均租金维持在5%以下和150
械、物流、航空、金融等行业。成
项目的租赁表现依然理想，空置面
元/平方米/月，预期未来两至三个
交较为活跃的天河区本季度迎来两
积去化明显；市场整体空置率环比
季度内将有新增甲级写字楼供应入
座优质办公物业的落成，进一步扩
上季度下降。近期入市的项目在空
市，届时该区域市场租金水平或将
大企业对写字楼物业的可选空间，市
置率正快速下降的同时，租金尚未
受一定冲击。
场竞争更趋激烈，部分项目亦采取延
出现明显上涨，同时个别入市时间
随着优质新项目的陆续落成、
长免租期等优惠措施以吸引租户。
较长的项目则下调了租金水平，上
投运，成都甲级写字楼市场正逐步
新项目的入市，使得优质办公
述因素共同导致本季度整体甲级写
进入升级成熟的过程，在这一过程
物业密集的珠江新城板块竞争将更
字楼市场平均租金延续上季度小幅
中，市场上的“马太效应”将愈
为激烈，市场可选择的办公场所更
走低趋势。
发明显——品质优越、配套条件完
China Economic Review • April 2013
CREDIT: ImagineChina
去年第四季度，跨国公司以及国
市场表现相对平稳。由于无优质写字
内企业升级带动了市场需求，杭州优
楼项目入市，去年年南京优质写字楼
质写字楼市场的表现活跃，但大量新
物业累计净吸纳量同比下跌60%。受
增供应的入市也推高了全市的空置
此影响，到去年末，南京优质写字楼
率。一些租约已满的金融公司持续从
物业整体空置率从2011年的14%下
市中心搬到钱江新城，以换取其对较
滑至9%，为2007年以来的最低点。
大的办公空间和相对较低的租金。同
玉桥商业广场三期（零售物业部
时，因为新增项目较低的开盘价，优
分）于去年第四季度正式开业，该项
质写字楼的平均租金下降黄龙地区的
目是中央门商圈的首个综合体项目，
写字楼的平均租金仍为全市最高。
集购物、餐饮、休闲、娱乐、酒店式
杭州写字楼投资市场也表现良
公寓于一体，总建面积约为14万平
好。位于武林地区的写字楼德信置地
方米。其中9层楼的购物中心定位于
广场，以总价人民币3.98亿元被国
中端市场，引入了屈臣氏、艾格、南
内买家购得。
京大丰收以及金逸国际影城等商户。
杭州地铁一号线的正式运营无疑
玉桥购物中心的入市，将能有效推动
将对市场的中长期带来积极的影响。
中央门商圈租户结构的换代升级，从
在第四季度中，品牌便利店是最先的
而对提升该商圈的总体租金水平起到
收益者。罗森在杭州新开两店，并计
一定的积极作用。
善、服务水准较高的写字楼项目未来
划在今年增加20个新店。预计今年杭
此外，第四季度新街口商圈艾尚
将延续乐观态势，租金或资产价值还
州将新增各种品牌的便利店约300家。
天地购物中心开始试营业。该项目以
有上升空间；而欠缺上述因素的项目
杭州零售物业市场保持积极平稳
年轻和时尚为主题，坐落于德基广场
则需要面对不断增大的市场压力：项
态势，主要商圈平均首层商铺租金约
的北面和凯润金城一期的南面，总建
目去化速度减慢或租金增长乏力，甚
稳定在每天每平方米人民币35元。
面积约为3万平方米。艾尚天地的问
至租金得不到有效支撑出现下滑，导
随着全市城镇居民人均可支配收入的
世将和德基广场以及凯润金城一期相
致物业资产贬值。预期今年将有超过
增长，不少商场纷纷调整策略，调整
呼应，从而使新街口“南闹北雅”“南
30万平方米的甲级写字楼供应入市，
升级品牌来满足市场需求。中高端商
中北高”的商业定位逐步成形。
届时成都写字楼市场的竞争将加剧。
场也接二连三地入市，例如由港商联
为了迎接今年亚青会以及2014
截至去年第四季度，来自金融
合海威公司投资成立的香港四季百货
年青奥会的顺利召开，南京城市基础
业、制造业、能源业、房地产业的企
与杭州厚仁商业街开发经营有限公司
设施建设正如火如荼地推进着。今年
业成成都甲级写字楼的主要租户群
共同创建了杭州香港城。项目位于西
南京预计将投入人民币740亿元用于
体。根据对近期宏观政策的解读，尽
湖区，涉及购物与娱乐。娃哈哈集团
城市基建。今年将有4条轨道交通基
管针对住宅市场调控短期内仍将延
投资运营的娃欧商场也正式开业，主
本实现贯通。于此同时，南京市政府
续，但促进消费扩大内需、扶持实体
要将引进欧洲品牌。据报道，公司计
将重点推进河西新城的建设，其中包
经济、推进城镇化建设等信号，则间
划在未来3至5年内在全国范围内新
括青奥城、海峡城、金融城等重要项
接传递出对于商贸、零售、制造、金
开100家商场。
目。下关滨江商务区今年也将全面启
融、建筑等行业的利好消息，来自上 述行业的租户群体或将保持稳定增 长。
杭州零售物业保持平稳 去年第四季度杭州土地市场极为 活跃，预示杭州物业市场将继续保持
动建设，该项目将重点打造国际航运
南京优质零售物业租金增长
和物流中心。
去年南京全市经济运行保持平
今年第一季度南京优质写字楼物
稳，全年地区生产总值同比增长
业平均租金或将保持平稳。全年预计
11.7%。去年年南京城镇居民人均可
将有不少优质项目入市，如亚太商
支配收入达人民币36322元，同比增
务楼、斯亚财富中心、德基广场二期
幅高于当年地区生产总值增幅。
（写字楼部分）以及金奥大厦，届时
上扬趋势。尽管杭州国土局下发政
去年第四季度南京优质写字楼物
将给整个优质写字楼物业市场带来约
策，对溢价率超过49%的商品住宅
业平均租金继续维持在每天每平方米
25万平方米的供应面积。整体空置
地块已配建保障房的方式调整竞价方
人民币4元，无新增项目入市。截至
率也将随之攀升。
式，大型房企依然迎刃而上，万科、
去年末，南京优质写字楼物业市场
受地方政府刺激内需政策的带
中海、嘉里置业以及绿地等大型房地
空置率从2011年年末的14%下降为
动，今年南京优质零售物业平均租金
产开发商均在上一季度内拿下多宗地
9%，是2007年以来的最低点。
或将继续平稳增长。新增供应方面，
块，主城区成交地块中有45%的地 块以超过20%的溢价率成交。
受第三产业增加值持续增长的支 撑，四季度南京优质写字楼物业租赁
今年将有夫子庙水平方和河西新城雨 润国际广场两个购物中心项目入市。
China Economic Review • April 2013
17
CREDIT: ImagineChina
Bubbling over Could China’s residential property restrictions lead to over investment in the commercial market?
T
he New South China Mall in Dongguan, Guangdong province, has received much media attention, but not for the reason its owners hoped. The mall has space for 2,350 stores – making it the world’s largest such monument to consumerism – but it has been largely empty since it opened in 2005. Shiny new malls sit vacant in other parts of China as well, disproving the mantra, “if you build it they will come.” The nearby city of Huizhou has 600,000 square meters of shopping malls, roughly half a square meter of shopping space for each of its 1.15 million residents. In the northern city of Shenyang, vacancy rates for shopping centers were more than 20% at the end of 2012, according to property management firm Jones Lang LaSalle. Most observers in China this year have been paying attention not to commercial property but to the residential market. Beijing recently handed down even stricter regulations to keep China’s exorbitant house prices in check, and analysts are debating whether more rules will follow. But these changes in the residential market are also likely to have powerful knock-on effects for commercial real estate. The restrictions have caused a number 18
China Economic Review • April 2013
of developers to channel more investment towards commercial property, global real estate agency Knight Frank said in a recent report. Brokerage Cushman & Wakefield projects that newly constructed retail space will account for 56% of the inventory of China’s 20 largest cities in three years. The question is whether the market can absorb it. Whacking moles Chinese home prices have begun inching skyward again since the beginning of the year. Prices in 70 Chinese cities increased 1% between January and February, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal, the highest monthly increase in two years. Compared with a year earlier, housing prices in February were up 1.75% on average. To head off this growth, the State Council in March urged local governments to slow rising home prices by imposing higher down payments and mortgage rates for buyers of second homes. It also asked local governments to strictly enforce a 20% capital gains tax on second-home sales; in the past, many purchasers evaded this tax, paying 1-3% of the sales price to the government instead.
REPORT In the longer run, as the prospects of investing in the residential sector look less rosy, more funds are likely to flow toward the commercial market. This trend is already visible as restrictions have tightened on the residential sector in the last four years: China’s commercial property development and investment has grown by 46% in the past four years, far outpacing the 14% growth in the residential property sector, Sunny Zhang, China director at Cushman & Wakefield, wrote in an emailed response. There are several reasons for this trend. First, developers, especially listed ones, are eager to maintain their growth rates, as are local governments. At least 10% of China’s GDP comes directly from real estate, but the industry’s economic impact is far wider considering related industries such as cement, machinery and home furnishings. For local governments, building high-end shopping malls helps improve their image, provides extra taxes and creates job. Finally, local governments still generate much of their revenue from land sales, so when the residential market slows down they are incentivized to shift their energy to the commercial market. Finally, Beijing is unlikely to impose the same restrictions on the commercial market. The central government is desperate to control the price of residential property to keep its citizens happy but in comparison the commercial market has little connection to social stability. How much is too much? This shift in capital towards the commercial market should spark concerns about a potential property bubble. China’s commercial property market is just a fraction of the size of the national residential market, and it’s unclear exactly how much investment the market can absorb. Steve McCord, the local director of research at Jones Lang LaSalle in Shanghai, argues that further investment in the commercial market is not a major issue, as China’s consumer markets are growing quickly. The balance between supply and demand of commercial property in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen should not change much between now and 2015, because the consumer base is growing in tandem with the supply of commercial real estate, he said. In addition, the commercial market isn’t as suited to speculative investment as the residential sector, McCord said. Buyers tend to snap up residential properties relatively quickly, affording the developer quick returns. With commercial property, however, the developer can
reap much larger gains with a “build and hold” structure in which the company maintains ownership and leases the property to various retailers. Despite their seeming similarities, commercial and residential real estate are actually very different investment products. For this reason, JLL does not believe the majority of speculative capital will rush into offices, McCord said. Instead, restrictions are prompting individual investors and developers to find ways to send their money abroad, he said. However, other analysts caution that some cities show signs of an emerging bubble in commercial property. Cushman & Wakefield argues that what it calls “tier 1.5 cities” – Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing and regional hubs like Wuhan – have enough consumer demand to absorb supply. However, smaller cities where purchasing power remains more limited could suffer. Shifting trends in retail are compounding this problem. Chinese are increasingly shopping online, and international retailers are scaling back their brick-and-mortar expansion plans in China as they observe slightly slower growth. Some investments are at risk “particularly due to the large amount of office and retail space in the development pipeline in Tier-2 cities,” Zhang of Cushman & Wakefield wrote. Location, location, location China’s smaller markets are likely more at risk than its major cities from an influx of investment into the commercial property market. But regardless of what city a commercial property is located in, the difference between success and failure often comes down to other factors. A lack of planning and an inappropriate location within Dongguan is what ultimately killed New South China Mall, McCord said. Whether a company can successfully carve out a niche in commercial property depends on how they manage their assets, including selecting tenants, maintaining the building’s appearance and positioning its brands correctly so it isn’t competing head-to-head with neighboring centers, he said. Ultimately, the New South China Mall is an outlier by China standards, McCord argues. In Shanghai “we have two or three bad eggs out of 57 malls,” he said. “To put things into perspective, the US has far more problematic malls than China right now … Some of them have vines growing on them and ceilings falling down and stuff like that. So we are still pretty good in China.” China Economic Review • April 2013
19
REPORT
In every direction Commercial property is back as private investors look to increase their exposure to the global economic recovery. Knight Frank’s The Wealth Report 2013 shows Chinese investors where the smart money is heading
T
he Wealth Report’s Attitudes Survey of wealth advisors and private bankers confirms that high net wealth individuals are taking a greater interest in commercial property. Globally, a net balance of 25% of respondents said their clients planned to invest more this year, with the strongest increases reported in the Middle East & Africa (52%), Australasia (33%), North America (33%) and Russia and CIS (33%). The increase was second only to that for equities. “This shows private investors plan to increase exposure to traditional recovery-play investments 20
China Economic Review • April 2013
in 2013. Property in a rising economy can provide steady growth to balance against the volatility that equities experience,” says Deborah Watt of Knight Frank’s Global Wealth team. Such sentiment should help global property investment to stabilize in 2013 after falling by 7% in 2012 to US$403 billion. Market conditions will remain difficult in the first half of the year, but recovery in North America and Asia should counterbalance subdued activity in Europe. Knight Frank then predicts global investment to increase by 8% to
US$434 billion in 2014, as the economic recovery spreads. However, not all locations and asset classes will benefit immediately. Private investors will assess markets based on their appetite for risk, taking into account factors such as a potential target’s position in the economic recovery cycle. A move away from residential property investments and the impact of exchange rates will also have an effect in different parts of the world. Some cities retain the ability to lure investors from around the globe, even when their host coun-
tries are putting in a lackluster economic performance. These are what we call safe havens and they often benefit when there is economic and political turmoil in other parts of the world. Recovery play While safe havens will retain their luster, we see property investment in 2013 being driven increasingly by a desire to gain exposure to economic recovery around the world. Those looking to invest will divide cities into those where recovery looks imminent, and target prime properties, and those that will see no recovery this year, which they will avoid. Globally, market conditions vary hugely. In New York, London, Paris, Hong Kong, San Francisco and Sydney property investment markets are moving into recovery, while in Madrid and Milan prices remain under pressure. Investors may see values drop a little further before they rise. However, the lesson from London
‘Many of those holding prime income-producing commercial assets in key Asian cities are reluctant to sell at present, pushing investors to look outside their domestic markets.’ (among the first cities to recover) is that some investors will accept a small loss in order to secure the right asset before the turning point, rather than wait until the market is crowded with bidders. Commercial property investment in the US held up well compared with other regions, supported by steady GDP growth. The estimated full year commercial property investment volume
in North America for 2012 was US$158 billion, in line with 2011, compared with a 19% fall in activity in Europe. Of the top 10 cities in the world by investment volume six are in the US, and New York holds the number one spot, according to RCA. Last year saw a revival of commercial mortgage-backed securities in the US, which has combined with improving economic news to support property investment. Private investment in the US is dominated by domestic buyers, but the country’s comparatively stronger GDP figures may encourage more overseas private investors to consider investing there rather than in Europe. Where to go in Asia Demand for commercial real estate has been generally robust in Asia, where markets have been largely driven by high savings levels, negative real interest rates and a desire to find safe havens due to volatility in the equity and residential markets. Now a new impetus is China Economic Review • April 2013
21
REPORT buoying demand. “In Hong Kong and Singapore, particularly, we are seeing more private investors who previously favored residential investment looking at lower price point commercial property,” says Nicholas Holt, Asia-Pacific Research Director at Knight Frank. “Cooling measures, such as taxes and lending restrictions, intended to decelerate house price growth, have generated more interest in ‘strata’ commercial investments, where a commercial building is sold off in floors or sub-units that are affordable to private buyers.” A growing desire to diversify is resulting in more cross- border investment, adds Mr Holt. “We expect Asian investors to continue to look for investment opportunities abroad. Many of those holding prime income-producing commercial assets in key Asian cities are reluctant to sell at present, pushing investors to look outside their domestic markets. I would expect Japan to continue to draw investment as it remains Asia’s second largest economy, with a large volume of investable property stock. Tokyo is a liquid market, and one
22
China Economic Review • April 2013
of the region’s big financial hubs and gateway cities.” Australia is a popular location with investors from Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America. Economic links are strong, and business and legal structures are similar to those in many Asian markets. The flow of capital from private investors in Asia into Australasian commercial property was the second largest inter-regional movement in 2012, according to RCA. Value added So what do these trends mean for commercial property values? We expect a graph of future prices to resemble a tick: a small initial drop followed by a gradual recovery, as investors buy recovery-tracking investments. The shape of the tick will vary, with a steeper initial decline for peripheral European cities, say, than for Tier 2 cities in triple A-rated European countries. Gateway international cities like London and New York, as well as cities in some emerging markets, are already past the drop and on the rise. Knight Frank is forecasting a gradual acceleration of central London office rents over
the next few years, as economic growth combines with low availability in the leasing market. We forecast rent rises of 16% in the City and 10% in the West End over the next three years. The market will therefore in our view refocus on redevelopment opportunities in 2013 and 2014. We see the business environment becoming gradually stronger in 2014 and 2015, creating opportunities for investors to buy into recovery in economies that for the next year will likely remain the preserve of the experienced investor. As we move into a more normalized global economy, property investors will be looking for development opportunities beyond the big international gateway cities. For private investors venturing across borders to seek high returns, partnering with local developers may be the best way into a new market. Bank finance could remain hard to obtain for years as banks work to meet new regulatory targets on capital levels. In this context, private investors could become the venture capitalist investors of property, filling the development finance void left by the banks.