Potential Partnership

Strategic Vision vol. 6, no. 32 (April, 2017)

India and Taiwan must strengthen relations to balance against China’s rise

Prakash Katoch

A US Navy officer provides a tour of the USS Carl Vinson to Indian Naval officers during Exercise Malabar.

photo: James Evans

China is obsessed with Taiwan. Both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have made unification a high priority, especially since Taiwan holds historic importance stemming both from the Chinese Civil War and the legacy of foreign intervention. More importantly, Taiwan straddles important sea lanes and is a potential base for foreign military forces. Failure to unify Taiwan with China in the future is considered by the CCP as potentially dangerous to its political hold on the country, in addition to the loss of face the PLA would suffer. Chinese concerns that Taiwan could be used as a foreign military base underscore the importance of Taiwan’s geostrategic position.

In the past, there has been a great deal of speculation about whether the United States should defend Taiwan or abandon it in favor of better relations with China. However, it is clear that purely from the point of view of its geostrategic location, Washington will continue to have a great interest in maintaining the status quo between Beijing and Taipei. China, having added her first domestically built aircraft carrier, is already in the process of establishing a carrier battle group.

Five E2-D Advanced Hawkeye airborne early warning aircraft taxi down the runway after arriving at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan.

photo: Gabrial Weber

China has massive plans for the development of a blue-water navy, which will enable it to project power far into the Indo-Pacific. In geographical terms, China feels somewhat boxed in by the first island chain—a string of islands which begins with Japan and Japan’s Ryukyu Island chain and extends through to Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia. This geographic handicap helps explain China’s extensive maritime claims in the Pacific Ocean and its frantic activities to reclaim reefs, establishing military facilities and airstrips, and extending ADIGs.

Extending influence

If Taiwan is annexed by China, the PLA Navy will be able to extend its reach to the second island chain, right down to Guam, the Marianas, and even some other smaller islands in the central Pacific. Taiwan’s ports and harbors would provide Chinese submarines with quick access to the deep waters of the Pacific. Therefore, Taiwan must logically remain critical to US interests in the region, both strategically and militarily.

China’s strategy of claiming territory in contested areas around its borders deserves closer inspection. When China began emphasizing its claims on contested territory, this mainly applied to Tibet (annexed by China) and Taiwan. Over time, China’s territorial claims have grown to include vast tracts of the South China Sea (SCS) and the East China Sea (ECS), and areas to the south of its border including Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley. Chinese claims over Indian territory encompass 90,000 square kilometers of the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh, which was claimed as late as 2005.

An underlying problem is that China’s thinking is increasingly driven by the Middle Kingdom syndrome, which is fueled by a deep sense of historical injustice, combined with a desire for a Chinese renaissance which seeks to regain former glory. In light of its growing power and potent nationalism, Chinese attempts to gradually change the status of contested territories must be opposed. If China can bully Taiwan into accepting the name “Chinese Taipei,” what would stop it from demanding that Arunachal Pradesh be called “Chinese Arunachal Pradesh” or “Chinese South Tibet?” It is about time that the Chinese bluff be called, and that China be taken to task.

China’s actions and activity in the area of Kashmir are also a serious concern for India. China has guaranteed Pakistan’s territorial integrity without clarifying its stand on Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), which is a highly contested area with India. China is also deploying missiles in Gilgit-Baltistan, is driving the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Indian Territories under illegal occupation of Pakistan and provides tacit support to Pakistan’s proxy war against India. Recent reports also indicate that Chinese intelligence organizations have played a role in the cooperation and merger of nine militant groups in Northeast India, including the NSCNKhaplang and the ULFA faction led by Paresh Baruah (sheltered by China in the past several months) to form the “United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia.”

Greater participation

From the discussion above, it should be clear that any past Indian support to China’s territorial claims should be reconsidered in light of past and present Chinese actions which affect India’s security. At the same time, Delhi’s One China Policy should be challenged to allow greater international participation for Taiwan. The global community must do more to facilitate Taiwan’s participation in the international arena.

India can also play a role in strengthening Taiwan’s economy and its international status. Recently, India and Taiwan have made some progress in economic and cultural relations. In December 2012, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) approved the opening of a branch office (an unofficial consulate) of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in the city of Chennai. Both countries are making efforts to significantly expand bilateral trade and investments, especially in the fields of information technology, energy, telecommunications and electronics.

It would be in the interests of both India and Taiwan to engage strategically at the diplomatic and security levels through institutionalized dialogues both at Track I and Track II levels.

Major Indian exports to Taiwan include waste oil and naphtha, cereals, cotton, organic chemicals, copper, aluminum, and food residues. Major Taiwanese exports to India include integrated circuits, machinery and other electronic products. India is also keen to attract Taiwanese investment, particularly in hi-tech and labor-intensive industries.

By the end of 2013, more than 70 Taiwanese enterprises had invested or set up factories in India, with cumulative investments amounting to more than US$1.4 billion. In 2013, bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to US$6.17 billion. Today, more than 80 Taiwanese companies and entities have a presence in India. Bilateral trade and Taiwanese investments in India are likely to grow exponentially after the conclusion of a free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries, a move initiated by the MEA in 2011.

As part of science and technology cooperation, 29 Indo-Taiwan joint proposals were under implementation last year, as a follow up to the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Taiwan’s TECC and India’s ITA in 2007, and another MoU between Taiwan’s Academia Sinica and the Indian National Science Academy signed in 2012. In the field of education, MoUs to recognize each other’s university degrees were signed between the Foundation for International Cooperation in Higher Education of Taiwan (FICHET) and the Association of Indian Universities (AIU) in 2010. This has resulted in close cooperation and frequent exchanges between the two countries.

Landing craft air cushion (LCAC) assigned to Naval Beach Unit 7 conduct well deck operations with the amphibious transport dock USS Green Bay.

photo: Chris Williamson

Academic cooperation

Four Taiwan Education Centers have been set up in India as platforms for academic cooperation, including the teaching of Mandarin Chinese. Knowledge of Mandarin Chinese is important because it will enable students and professionals in India to understand the primary language in both Taiwan and China. In Taiwan, Chinese-language enrichment scholarships are being provided to Indian students. Taiwanese universities and colleges also provide scholarships to attract outstanding Indian students. On an average, about 600 Indian students study in Taiwan annually.

India and Taiwan should build upon these recent agreements by signing a free trade agreement. An FTA would automatically enhance economic relations, in addition to expanding people-to-people relations, education, culture, and cooperation in science and technology. China has very carefully invested in countries surrounding India with unambiguous strategic objectives while India is pursuing the Act East Policy. It is only now that the present government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started to engage countries on China’s periphery. Through India’s Act East Policy, and Taiwan’s new Southbound Policy, the two governments can begin to forge a closer strategic alignment.

Given that India and Taiwan both face militaryrelated challenges from China, the two governments should also increase exchange and dialogue between military and security personnel. With its similar culture and language, as well as its long history facing military and security challenges from the PRC, Taiwan’s scholars could greatly contribute to India’s understanding of Chinese strategy and thought. It would be in the interests of both India and Taiwan to engage strategically at the diplomatic and security levels through institutionalized dialogues both at Track I and Track II levels.

General Prakash Katoch (ret.) is a former ranking officer in the Indian Army. He can be reached for comment at prakashkatoch7@gmail.com