Hindsight 2020

Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 48 (December, 2020)

Over the past year, Beijing leaders have turned up the heat in Taiwan Strait

Shao-cheng Sun

Cross strait relations have become extremely tense in 2020. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) blamed Taiwan for having a one-sided policy and becoming too close to the administration of US President Donald Trump, with Beijing lashing out over the prospect of high-ranking US officials being allowed to visit Taiwan and meet with Republic of China (ROC) leaders. The Trump administration also approved several advanced weapons sales to Taiwan. China responded to these highprofile visits and arms sales by threatening military action. According to the PRC Foreign Ministry, these activities have encouraged Taiwan independence, and China will make the necessary response.

Taiwan is being threatened with invasion by voices within the Chinese state-run media, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced it would defeat Taiwan independence at all cost. Since 2020, the PLA has been flexing its military muscle more frequently by flying aircraft and sending warships close to Taiwan proper. In September, PLA aircraft repeatedly breached the median line in the Taiwan Strait.

A photograph of the Taiwan Strait taken during the Gemini X mission in 1966 shows Taiwan’s proximity to China.

photo: NASA

Even though China has done this in the past whenever cross-strait relations take a turn for the worse, the frequency of these incursions has been much greater in 2020. In response to China’s mounting military threat, the ROC government has taken steps to try and de-escalate the rising tensions. Foreign Minister Joseph Wu stated that Taiwan did not seek to establish a diplomatic relationship with the United States, while ROC President Tsai Ing-wen expressed a willingness to hold bilateral talks with Beijing. PRC leaders ignored Taiwan’s goodwill gestures, however, with Chinese official media releasing a video of an amphibious military attack on an island very much like Taiwan. According to China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, the reason for the rise in tensions is that ROC leaders refuse to accept the “one-China” principle, and they continue in their collusion with the United States. While China’s perception of current rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait seem to deviate from reality, it is important to understand their perspective on the issue, and why they continue to escalate the military threat.

The 1992 Consensus

The Chinese government asserts that the mounting cross-strait tensions can be attributed to increased US-Taiwan “collusion,” but mostly to President Tsai’s refusal to accept the 1992 Consensus—a term that refers to an agreement by negotiators at a 1992 meeting who found a way to sidestep Beijing’s longstanding precondition that, before talks could begin, both sides must verbally declare that there is only one China. These negotiators decided to agree to disagree, in that each had—in his mind and in his heart while making the affirmation—a different interpretation of what that “China” is: for the Taiwan delegates, this was the Republic of China, whereas the Chinese delegates had in their minds the People’s Republic. Additionally, Chinese leaders have observed that the ROC government is moving toward de-Sinicization by removing Chinese history from Taiwanese textbooks and portraying the Chinese government as an enemy. They think that if the trend does not cease, the Tsai administration will eventually move toward de jure independence.

The Chinese government and media have repeatedly accused the Tsai administration of promoting de-Sinicization, claiming that Taiwan has moved toward the path of separatism by severing its connection with China, moving toward independence,

“Taiwan’s medical diplomacy and its exemplary handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has garnered positive coverage in the international press.”

and allying itself with the United States. The Chinese 2019 Defense White Paper claimed that Taiwan separatist forces and their actions remain the gravest threat to peace in the Taiwan Strait and the biggest barrier to a peaceful unification. Indeed, the percentage of ROC citizens who identify as Taiwanese rose to historic heights, according to a 2020 survey conducted by the Taiwan Think Tank, with only 2.0 percent of respondents saying they self-identified as Chinese, compared to 62.6 percent self-identifying as Taiwanese. The trend of a rising Taiwanese identity, and a continued drift away from a Chinese identity, has frustrated PRC authorities who would prefer not to have to use force to annex the island.

ROC President Tsai Ing-wen poses for a group photograph with ROC air defense troops. Taiwan’s air defense units are on the front lines of Taiwan’s defense.

photo: ROC Presidential Office

The Chinese government has increased its diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, frustrating Taiwan’s efforts to participate in intergovernmental organizations such as the World Health Organization, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and the International Criminal Police Organization. Taipei has earnestly sought international recognition, but there are only 15 countries that still recognize the ROC as a sovereign state, and most intergovernmental organizations bar Taiwan’s participation at China’s behest. During the Coronavirus pandemic, Taiwan donated millions of masks and medical supplies to its diplomatic allies and friendly countries around the world, including the United States and several European countries. Taiwan’s medical diplomacy and its exemplary handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has garnered positive coverage in the international press, whereas China’s image has suffered due to PRC intervention in Hong Kong, its culpability for the spread of Coronavirus worldwide, and its aggressive territorial expansion in the South China Sea, among other behaviors. Taiwan’s active pursuit of international recognition has been interpreted by the Chinese government as an attempt to disrupt the status quo of cross-strait relations.

Support for Taiwan

The Trump administration has publicly ratcheted up support for Taiwan. First, it did this by sending high-ranking cabinet members on visits to the island. In August and October 2020, Trump dispatched Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar and Under Secretary of State Keith Krach to Taipei, the highest-level American officials to visit Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979. The arrival of US officials enraged Chinese leaders, who view the move as a violation of China’s internal affairs. Second, the US Congress has shown strong bipartisan support to Taiwan. In March 2020, President Trump signed the bipartisan TAIPEI Act, subsequently passed by the US Congress, which commits the US government to help Taiwan improve its international standing. Third, some government officials have proposed that the United States should adopt a position of strategic clarity on Taiwan and send a clear message to Beijing that it would defend the island should the PLA attempt an invasion. Fourth, US arms sales to Taiwan have increased. Between May and October 2020, Washington approved almost US$5 billion in arms sales to Taipei, including submarine-launched wire-guided torpedoes, high-mobility artillery rocket launchers, and Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems, among others.

The PRC government has perceived Taiwan’s deSinicization, Taipei’s international recognition seeking, and the aforementioned US support as a threat to the very survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime. Thus, Beijing has employed a host of methods in response, including coercive rhetoric, aggressive diplomacy, and even more worrying, belligerent military posturing against the Tsai administration.

Promulgated in 2005, China’s Anti-Secession Law is ambiguous about what actions it would consider a casus belli. The law gives Beijing legal cover for the use of military force to respond to any attempted Taiwanese secession from China, as well as if Chinese leaders perceive “major incidents entailing secession,” or if all possibilities for peaceful unification are exhausted. In a desire to bolster his legacy, PRC President Xi Jinping may take aggressive actions in response to the rise of Taiwan’s independence movement coupled with soured US-China relations. According to the legislation, the tripwires for China’s use of force include a declaration of Taiwan independence or indefinite delay of cross-strait dialogue on unification. With this law in place, China’s current saber rattling poses a grave threat to Taiwan’s security.

In 2020, Chinese leaders used strong rhetoric against Taiwan, with Xi claiming that China reserves the right to use all necessary measures against the island. On May 22, 2020, PRC Premier Li Keqiang delivered a speech at the National People’s Congress in which he reiterated his country’s desire to unify with Taiwan, though he left out the word “peaceful.” On September 21, after PLA warplanes made sorties over the Taiwan Strait, PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesman Wang Wenbin denied the very existence of a median line in the Taiwan Strait, opining that “Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory; there is no socalled median line of the strait.” The PLA ramped up this rhetoric, with Defense Ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang telling reporters, on the Taiwan issue, that “those who play with fire are bound to get burned.” Moreover, throughout 2020, the Chinese mouthpiece media was constantly threatening Taiwan with invasion.

The US Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS John Finn conducts underway replenishment in the Indo-Pacific area of operations.

photo: Chris Cavagnaro

Since early September 2020, China has been conducting a show of force in the Taiwan Strait, with PLA warplanes flying increased patrols around Taiwan to prepare for the future military invasion and test Taiwan’s response time. PLA warplanes and naval ships have roamed the strait almost daily, many breaching the median line, bilateral acknowledgment of which has helped keep the peace through several previous generations of Chinese leaders.

An F-16DJ approaches a barrier cable at Yokota Air Base, Japan, with Mount Fuji visible in the background.

photo: Jan David De Luna Mercado

Nor is Taiwan the only intended victim of these thinly veiled military threats. In September, the PLA released a video of Chinese H-6 bombers making a

“The downside of strategic ambiguity is that Washington is not able to send a clear, consistent message of deterrence to leaders in Beijing.”

simulated strike on a runway that bore an uncanny resemblance to Anderson Air Force Base on Guam. On October 10, to mark the ROC’s National Day, the PLA staged a large-scale island-invasion military exercise, and broadcast the drill. It was the first time this decade that the Chinese media ran full coverage of the entire exercise of a staged military landing on Taiwan, stoking nationalistic sentiment. Thanks to Beijing ramping up military pressure against Taiwan this way, tensions have risen to levels not seen in decades.

The PLA could conduct a campaign designed to force Taiwan into unification. According to the US Department of Defense’s 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, the PLA could initiate the following options, individually or in combination: an air and maritime blockade, a limited force or coercive options, an air and missile campaign, or a military invasion of Taiwan. China’s State broadcaster CCTV warned that “the first battle would be the last battle.” It is very likely that if China attacks Taiwan, it would be an invasion. The Taipei Bureau Chief of Bloomberg News, Samson Ellis, also believes that a PLA attack against Taiwan prior to a military invasion would utilize cyber and electronic forces to target Taiwan’s key infrastructure. Airstrikes would target Taiwan’s top leaders in a decapitation attack, and an invasion would follow, with PLA warships and submarines traversing the Taiwan Strait.

In the face of the mounting threat from China, the ROC military said its armed forces have the right to self-defense and counterattack amid “harassment and threats,” though it vowed to follow a guideline of no escalation of conflict, and no triggering incidents. Taiwan has also taken steps to prepare for future military conflict. Taiwan will enhance its asymmetric capabilities which include offensive and defensive information and electronic warfare, shore-based mobile missiles, fast mine-laying, minesweeping, and drones.

In the past 40 years, the United States government has adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity to govern its approach to cross-strait relations. However, the downside of strategic ambiguity is that Washington is not able to send a clear, consistent message of deterrence to leaders in Beijing. Most Chinese people think that if a military conflict were to occur across the Taiwan Strait, the chances that the United States would deploy military forces to defend Taiwan are slim. This perception has encouraged the Chinese government to become more aggressive. Thus, some scholars and US government officials have recently floated the idea of strategic clarity; that Washington should send a clear message of US military support to defend Taiwan against any Chinese military action. In general, the United States opposes unilateral actions aimed at altering the cross-strait status quo. If China attacks Taiwan, the US reaction would likely be to mobilize the international community and put sanctions on China. In the face of China’s mounting military threat against Taiwan, the US security policy has come to a critical juncture. Some American security strategists have suggested that Washington abandon its policy of strategic ambiguity. Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, asked the administration to come to Taiwan’s defense. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argued that the United States should unequivocally state it would intervene to deter China and reassure US allies. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Haass declared that the time had come “for the United States to introduce a policy of strategic clarity: one that makes explicit that the United States would respond to any Chinese use of force against Taiwan.” To prevent China from launching a military invasion, the ROC government should encourage the United States to adopt such a policy of strategic clarity: this would go a long way toward making China think twice before launching any military attacks against Taiwan.

A US Navy ensign prepares a surface contact report while navigating the USS Barry during underway operations in the Taiwan Strait.

photo: Samuel Hardgrove

Dr. Shao-cheng Sun is an assistant professor at The Citadel specializing in China’s security, East Asian affairs, and cross-strait relations. He can be reached for comment at ssun@citadel.edu