STRATEGIC VISION for

Taiwan Security

Tom Yang

Submissions: Essays submitted for publication are not to exceed 2,000 words in length, and should conform to the following basic format for each 1200-1600 word essay: 1. Synopsis, 100-200 words; 2. Background description, 100-200 words; 3. Analysis, 800-1,000 words; 4. Policy Recommendations, 200-300 words. Book reviews should not exceed 1,200 words in length. Notes should be formatted as endnotes and should be kept to a minimum. Authors are encouraged to submit essays and reviews as attachments to emails; Microsoft Word documents are preferred. For questions of style and usage, writers should consult the Chicago Manual of Style. Authors of unsolicited manuscripts are encouraged to consult with the executive editor at xiongmu@gmail.com before formal submission via email. The views expressed in the articles are the personal views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliate institutions or of Strategic Vision. Once accepted for publication, manuscripts become the intellectual property of Strategic Vision. Manuscripts are subject to copyediting, both mechanical and substantive, as required and according to editorial guidelines. No major alterations may be made by an author once the type has been set. Arrangements for reprints should be made with the editor. The editors are responsible for the selection and acceptance of articles; responsibility for opinions expressed and accuracy of facts in articles published rests solely with individual authors. The editors are not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts; unaccepted manuscripts will be returned if accompanied by a stamped, self-addressed return envelope. Strategic Vision remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover photograph of a US marine in a parachute operation during Exercise Eagle Resolve over Qatar is courtesy of Christopher Stone.

Editor

Fu-Kuo Liu

Executive Editor

Aaron Jensen

Editor-at-Large

Dean Karalekas

Editorial Board

Chung-young Chang, Fo-kuan U

Richard Hu, NCCU

Ming Lee, NCCU

Raviprasad Narayanan, JNU

Hon-Min Yau, NDU

Ruei-lin Yu, NDU

Li-Chung Yuan, NDU

Osama Kubbar, QAFSSC

Rashed Hamad Al-Nuaimi, QAFSSC

Chang-Ching Tu, NDU

STRATEGIC VISION For Taiwan Security (ISSN 2227-3646) Volume 12, Number 55, April, 2023, published under the auspices of the Center for Security Studies and National Defense University.

All editorial correspondence should be mailed to the editor at STRATEGIC VISION, Taiwan Center for Security Studies. No. 64, Wanshou Road, Taipei City 11666, Taiwan, ROC.

Photographs used in this publication are used courtesy of the photographers, or through a creative commons license. All are attributed appropriately.

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© Copyright 2022 by the Taiwan Center for Security Studies.

From The Editor

The editors and staff of Strategic Vision would like to wish our readers well as we continue to follow the events that shape the security landscape in the region, and in the world.

We open this issue with an examination of the large and growing internal desire for change across the Middle East, and how this represents a shift in the traditional forces driving change in that region, in an article by Professor Osama Kubbar, a senior policy advisor and analyst at the Strategic Studies Center of the Qatari Armed Forces.

Next, Guermantes Lailari, a visiting scholar at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and National Defense University, offers his thoughts on Dr. Edward Luttwak’s recent proposal that Western planners should, in the event of a cross-strait war, target Beijing’s unique weaknesses. After this, security analyst Ashton Cho analyses the second-order consequences of a war in the Taiwan Strait from the perspective of South Korea.

Next, Moh’d Ali Khawaldeh, a lecturer at the Royal Police Academy in Jordan, examines the rise of combat and reconnaissance drone usage in the Taiwan Strait, and how the effectiveness of these tools has yet to be determined. Dmytro Burtsev, a visiting scholar from Ukraine, offers his thoughts on some of the parallels between the situation in Taiwan and that in his country. Finally, Tom Yang, a student in the Graduate Institute of International Security of the ROC National Defense University, offers an analysis of the US Navy’s Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the Indo-Pacific region.

We hope you enjoy this issue, and that our coverage helps to develop an understanding of the events that unfold in the AsiaPacific. We look forward to bringing you the finest analysis and reporting on the issues of importance to security in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.

Dr. Fu-Kuo Liu Editor Strategic Vision