New Power Triangle

Old power balance in Middle East giving way to new trends driving change

Osama Kubbar

For the past five decades, since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Middle East has been going through so much geopolitical transformation, mainly as a result of external influence. However, the events of the last decade have seen changes to the region come increasingly from within. Since 2010, internal elements have been the key forces driving geopolitical change, with a great degree of influence coming not from the elites, but from the citizenry of the region, especially its youth.

External forces are still involved, of course, but there is a large and growing internal desire for change across the region; from Morocco in the west up to the Levant, and including the Gulf region, as well as Turkey and Iran, due to their tangled interrelationship and historical ties with the greater region. To get a sense of what is driving this metamorphosis, and whatever trajectory this is likely to put the region on in the future, it is critical that we examine how the Middle East has evolved up to this point. The region has been under brutal, dictatorial regimes for many decades, marked by severe human rights abuses, assaults on basic human dignity, and serious discrimination. The argument advanced herein is that the rise of a new, fearless generation of activists, coupled with the US retreat from the region, are the key factors triggering a rebalancing of power.

Despite claims of regional unity under the umbrella of the Arab League, the reality points to the fact that the region is divided into three main blocs. These three blocs are geographically associated, and they share a lot of common traditions, history, and cul- ture, with ties among tribes and families crossing borders. These three blocs are the Levant, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the Arab Maghreb Union.

The political history of the region shows that Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan, and Oman never belonged to any single bloc, although they have been associated or linked with one or another. All of these countries do act according to their own political agendas. Also, the traditional blocs—the Levant, the Gulf, and the Arab Maghreb—are classified based on proximity and common cultural roots, and not on political harmony. For example, the Algeria-Maghreb are entangled in a long dispute that has threatened military escalation a few times. While the same can be said about the Gulf region, with the Gulf diplomatic crisis—the Qatar blockade—being a good example.

Historically, the region has been under the influence of three countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria, which represented the traditional triangle of power and balance. This was especially true in the period following the end of the Second World War. However, this triangle has collapsed, or at least been seriously weakened. Egypt was frozen out of the region due to its peace accord with Israel in March of 1979. Iraq has been subject to plots and stress, both internal and external, since the first Gulf war in 1991, and eventually it collapsed with the US-led invasion in 2003.

Likewise, Syria has been weakened due to its long and ongoing civil war, as well as the Arab Spring protests, uprisings, and rebellions in 2011 in the Middle East and North Africa, which fundamentally changed the relationship that citizens have with the state. Meanwhile, external forces have worked through a calculated plan to dismantle the region and reshape it in accordance with what has been euphemistically called a “new Middle East,” which would see Israel integrated as a key player in the region.

Washington has played a key role in the region since at least the 1991 first Gulf War, aimed at liberating Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Since then, the United States has been the sole security provider for Gulf countries, and the security broker for the region at large. However, with recent developments in the international strategic environment and landscape, especially with the rise of China and the assertiveness of Russia, the United States has embarked on a new national security agenda with new set of priorities, starting with the “Pivot to Asia” initiative launched by former US President Barack Obama. This initiative entailed the refocusing of US attention to the Asia-

Pacific, and retreating or significantly reducing its commitments to the Middle East and surrounding countries. The US retreat has created a power and security vacuum in the Middle East, and resulted in the rise of a new power triangle that competes for regional superiority and dominance.

This new power triangle consists of Turkey, Iran, and Israel, each of which is capable of making a difference whenever it intervenes. While these countries are capable, in terms of military power and otherwise, ethnicity-wise, they are considered outsiders in a region predominantly made up of Arab nations. Add to this the dimension of religion, which plays a key role in the tangled relationships among the regional countries, with a long-rooted history of hatred and contention between Islam and Judaism, along with the Palestinian issue, as well the inter-Islam schism due to the often bloody dispute between Sunni and Shi’i.

For example, while Ankara is officially secular, Turkey’s population is predominantly Sunni, whereas Iran is a Shi’i theocracy, with Tehran’s vision and policies based on Shi’i supremacy and domination of the body politic. As such, these differences create a very complicated and heterogeneous strategic envi- ronment, and results in a dysfunctional and disharmonious power triangle. As a result, the countries making up that power triangle are incapable of acting as a source of stability or a peace broker unless they agree on a workable plan that meets their interests, and the long-term interests of the region as well, as much as the latter can be agreed upon.

Regional influences

Other regional powers aspire to play a key role as well, in particular Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser degree the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. Egypt is an important country in the region, due to its location, population, and history, while Saudi Arabia is the spiritual capital of the Muslim world, along with its outsized economic power. The UAE and Qatar have strong soft-power tools—diplomacy, economics, and the media—and are using these to play influential, albeit different, roles in the region, however, they find themselves in supporting roles to other regional powers and allies. It is important to highlight that, among the countries in the new power triangle, Turkey is the closest to the regional countries, since Turkey is a Sunni country and it is the inheritor of the long history of prosperity and cooperation seen during the Ottoman Empire. This makes Turkey the closest and most logical ally to the region compared with Israel and Iran.

This, along with the new power triangle in the region, has led to the emergence of a stability triangle consisting of Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, which has the potential capability of bringing peace and stability to the region, provided their leaders can agree on a collective formula that will fulfill their ambitions, interests, and the collective aspirations of the region.

These three countries have a lot in common in terms of sharing the same religious sect (Sunni) and a deep history, and all are capable of wielding both hard and soft power. Regional differences between Iran and Israel have deep roots and are difficult to resolve.

The countries of the aforementioned stability triangle—Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—exhibit a difficult dynamic that is hindering these three from coming together and preventing any real, meaningful rapprochement. Turkey aspires to be a key international actor, and Ankara is certainly capable. While Egypt and Saudi Arabia each aspires to the role of regional hegemon, they are sorely lacking in hard power, military strength, and the other necessary attributes that such a role demands. They lack a strategic vision and proficiency in planning, and there is a shortage of trust in their intentions and good will in the region.

In addition, external forces are also working against bringing Ankara, Cairo, and Riyadh together, as such a rapprochement would not be in the interests of Iran or Israel. With all these conflicting interests and interference, it is very difficult to envision a stable and prosperous Middle East region in the foreseeable future. The region does not own its destiny.

Balance of power

Many of the political developments and competition unfolding in the Middle East can be attributed to the balance of power theory in international relations. Today, the Middle East is torn between three competing geostrategic expansion projects, with different aims. Turkey, Israel, and Iran carry on serious, calculated, and well-thought-out plans for regional expansion that serve their long-term objectives of economic growth and political influence. With the lack of a regional geostrategic “Arab Project,” the region has no choice but to join one or another of those competing projects. This has resulted in the existence of three competing blocs, each of which is led by a non-Arab state.

As a result, three opposing coalitions in the Middle East define the rivalries that prevent the region from the aspired stability. As competition for dominance intensifies, the confrontation between Iran’s network of state and non-state actors, and a counter-front of traditional Western allies—centered on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel—is becoming the region’s central battleground. The third emerging bloc is led by Turkey, with Qatar as the only genuine strategic partner. The rivalry between the Iran- and Israel-led blocs is a zero-sum game, while the Turkeyled bloc has different ambitions, focusing primarily on economic partnerships and prosperity.

It is important to mention that the Israel-led bloc is gaining greater momentum since the Abraham Accords: Six Arabic nations—Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—have normalized relationships with Israel, and collectively are working on a comprehensive partnership plan that includes defense, political, and economic dimensions. It is expected that more Arab nations will join this bloc, with the jewel in the crown for Israel being the Saudi Kingdom. Israel and Saudi enjoy a good relationship, and they coordinate at all levels; however, the kingdom has yet to officially ratify the Abraham Accords.

It is very difficult to see Iran expanding beyond its current domain of influence in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. While the Turkey-led bloc might add Kuwait, Oman, Libya, and Algeria, it is difficult to see this happening soon. We should also acknowledge the fact that the United States and its Western allies are backing the Israel-led bloc, which will give a great advantage to this bloc.

This is simply the current situation in the Middle East, and it will likely feature in the upcoming era for the region. The Middle East is embarking on a period that is completely different than what it has seen thus far, and this signals the end of what has been called the Arab Era, with the region opening up for other partnerships and expansions beyond its borders. This may be a regional symptom of another new paradigm currently in ascendance, the New World Order.

Unfortunately, the leaders in the region are disjointed to the point that they have no real answers for how to face these enduring challenges. However, the majority of people in the region have remained resolute to make extraordinary progress on many fronts in recent years. The level of awareness at the individual level has reached a critical point, breaking the fear barrier of the dictatorship regimes, and led to grassroots revolutions.

The people demanded a change from the era of dictatorships, and aspire to a new era of democracy, in which the people of this region might finally be allowed to govern their own destiny. Are these transformative changes being recognized in the West? Unfortunately, the West has failed to live up to the expectations of the people of this region, and resisted any transformations whose outcomes they cannot control.

In short, the old, traditional motivators in the Middle East have given way to new mobilizers that are driving the current trend of change in the region. Generational transitions across the region bring new perspectives to the public debate in key countries.

New, younger, and more digitally attuned generations, unburdened by the politics of the past, are coming to the fore of the political scene in the region, and forcing change at all levels.

Regional powers aspire for new roles, both regionally and internationally. Economic changes in the region have opened the door to economic cooperation in new fields. Many regional governments are working hard to diversify their economies in order to reduce their dependency on oil. With this comes other economic opportunities for cooperation with foreign countries and companies.

The potential consequences of these balancing and counterbalancing dynamics for the future of the Middle East are grim. These dynamics further complicate the prospects for reaching a political solution to key regional issues, De-escalation between IsraelIran and Iran-Saudi is very important, while encouraging a proper dialogue between Turkey-Egypt-Saudi is very important for the region’s future.

The United States, Russia, and increasingly, China, will have influence in shaping the region as well, either directly or through their regional allies. Already we have seen China’s endeavor to fill the influence vacuum left by a retreating America, in the Beijingbrokered deal to restore relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This represents big face for China as a global power player, and a black eye to the United States. Moving forward, the onus will be on the regional powers to reconcile, and find common ground protecting the interests of these outside powers.

There is no doubt that the Middle East is moving out of its traditional cultural outlook, and is entering a new era that will see its influence expand beyond its traditional borders. This New Middle East has yet to be defined, but already polarization is forming around the new power triangle of Turkey, Iran, and Israel. The final face of the region will depend on how far these three regional powers can agree on a workable plan for regional stability and prosperity. n