Agrarian Evolution

АГРАРНАЯ ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ

АГРАРНАЯ ЭВОЛЮЦИЯ: ПРОБЛЕМА ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ В ЭРУ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ КАТАСТРОФ

ИНСТИТУТ STRELKA

2015

AGRARIAN EVOLUTION

INSTITUTE

AGRARIAN EVOLUTION: REVIVING RUSSIA’S FOOD SYSTEM IN THE AGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

НАЛЕТАЙ! Еда — ключевой стимул развития человечества. Она вдохновляет на творчество и изобретения, вызывает боль и удовольствие, вносит в нашу жизнь распорядок. Неизбежная потребность в пище сплачивает нас как цивилизацию и связывает с самыми древними предками. Процесс производства пищи — от поставщиков до обработки, от дистрибуции до утилизации — позволяет взглянуть на мир как бы с высоты птичьего полета и дает основу для продуктивных размышлений о будущем. В России, как и во многих других странах, производство продуктов питания индустриализировано. Применение индустриальных методов и принципов позволило победить голод и обеспечить ранее невообразимое разнообразие продуктов. Промышленное производство еды создало благоприятные условия для урбанизации и кардинально поменяло структуру рабочей силы. Однако пользу из всех этих трансформаций смогли извлечь лишь люди. Для растений, животных и планеты в целом переход на индустриальный метод производства оказался крайне губительным. Основанная на идее продуктивности, возведенной в абсолют, агропромышленность стремится преодолеть «неэффективность» природы с помощью технических инноваций. В ходе этого процесса, начинают происходить перебои в снабжении продуктами питания, интенсифицируются процессы климатических изменений, а люди забывают, откуда берется их пища. Данный проект призван показать альтернативу существующей тенденции. Проект «Аграрная эволюция» предлагает новую модель производства и потребления пищи, созданную на основе новейших открытий в агрокультуре, логистике и коммуникационных технологиях. Проект стремится внести вклад в мировую дискуссию об изменении климата, нейтрализуя присущие ей луддитские и техно-утопические крайности. Проект призывает к разработке гибридного подхода, который бы сочетал новейшие технологии с более локальным, устойчивым, и, во многом, до-модерным представлением об агрокультуре. Основываясь на современных тревогах о продуктовой независимости и растущий интерес ко всему органическому, проект прослеживает российский путь «от самоистязания к выздоровлению» и переосмысляет опыт отедельно взятой страны в качестве модели для всего мира.

— Брендан Магетрик, куратор проекта

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EAT UP! Food is humanity’s ultimate provocation. It inspires art and invention; it triggers pain and pleasure and gives pattern to our days. Our inescapable need for food bonds us as a civilization and connects us to our earliest ancestors.

The process of its production — from food sourcing to processing, distribution to disposal — offers an aerial view of the world’s current state and provides a base for thinking productively about its future.

In Russia, as in many parts of the world, food production is essentially industrial. Applying the tools and principles of industry to agriculture has reduced hunger and generated a greater diversity of diet than the world has ever known. It has enabled urbanization and reshaped the global workforce. But the positive effects of industrializing agriculture have been limited to humans. For the plants and animals involved, and for the earth itself, the industrial approach to food is unremittingly abusive. Based on a philosophy of productivity above all else, it applies technology to overcome the inefficiencies of nature. In the process, it distorts the food supply, disconnects us from our diet, and exacerbates climate change. This project shows that there is another way.

‘Agrarian Evolution’ assembles recent developments in agriculture, transportation, and communications technology to make a new model of food production and consumption. It contributes to the climate change debate but neutralizes its Luddite and techno-utopian extremes by calling for a hybrid approach that merges 21st century tools with a more intimate, sustainable, and in many ways premodern idea of agriculture. Building on contemporary concerns over food sovereignty and a growing interest in organics, the project charts a Russian path from self-harm to health and recasts the country as a model for the world.

— Brendan McGetrick, tutor

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Industrial agriculture is failing on ecological as well as socio-economic grounds and is pushing us past our planetary boundaries. In the age of climate change, Russia is uniquely positioned to be at the vanguard of developing agroecological methods of production within a more decentralized, networked food system.

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AGRARIAN EVOLUTION

Definition of the Trend During the past 200 years, agricultural production has expanded greatly — but at the cost of ever increasing quantities of external inputs and the disconnection of consumers from their sources of food.

An agricultural field during irrigation. Monocultures of high-yielding varieties require vast amounts of irrigation, fertilizers and pesticides.

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DEFINITION OF THE TREND

In the 20th century, agriculture was revolutionized by the introduction of so-called hybridized seeds.* These high-yielding varieties of staple crops have been instrumental in boosting production, but require vast amounts of synthetic fertilizer and irrigation as well as pesticides in order to perform. Typically, they are grown in vast monoculture plantations and require expensive machinery for planting and harvesting.

* Rather than replanting the seeds of their best crops, farmers have to purchase hybridized seeds anew from the companies that own them every year.

Global food production has expanded in response to increased use of synthetic fertilizers, irrigation and pesticides.

Moreover, growing demand for meat and dairy products has In the 20th century, agriculture was been met by the development revolutionized by the introduction of factory farming of livestock, of so-called hybridized seeds which requires large amounts of fodder crops such as soy or corn.

As a result, around 36% of the world’s crop calories are used for animal feed.

Revolutions in modern transportation such as the railway, long haul trucking and cargo shipping underpin increasingly global food supply chains. Grocery shops replaced farmers, selling their products directly to urban consumers, before then being edged out by large supermarkets.

Increasingly, distribution and retail are dominated by 6

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large corporations like Walmart or Tesco, which own logistics infrastructure and control large shares of our food supply.

In the USA, as in most high-income countries, the food retail market has come to be dominated by a few large companies.

At the end of the food chain, consumers know increasingly little about the origin of their food. They spend less time cooking and consume processed (fast) food full of sugar, salt and preservatives. Calorie intake and obesity have increased dramatically across the globe.

In high-income countries such as the USA, obesity has been on the rise and is expected to continue to grow.

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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

Global Development Based on the assumption that feeding a growing global population only requires increasing production, the industrial food system is perpetuated by neglect of its long-term negative environmental and social consequences.

A fluid pattern of small agro-ecological plots next to a rigid monoculture plantation. (Agnès Stienne)

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Due to the use of fertilizers, land-use change and livestock raising, agriculture’s contribution to climate change via greenhouse gas emissions has been constantly growing. At the same time, industrial agricultural practices decrease longterm productivity as well as resilience to adverse climate impacts.

Global temperatures are expected to rise by up to 4°C if no concerted global mitigating action is taken.

However, from a socio-economic perspective, the system fails in some regards, too. The required external inputs make it highly capital intensive, favoring large agro-businesses over smaller farms.

At the same time, while large retailers may be able to provide cheap food to consumers, they have enormous power over producers, who often do not receive fair prices.

As a consequence, farming livelihoods are lost and rural to urban migration sets in. This is a problem, since small and medium sized farms are important for sustainable rural development. Moreover, particularly in developing economies with excess unskilled labor, self-employment in agriculture provides an income and direct access to food.

Lastly, due to unhealthy consumption patterns associated with the industrial food system, calorie intake and obesity have increased dramatically across the globe. Obesity has 9

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become perhaps the major public health problem in the developed world. According to the WHO, globally, being overweight kills more people than being underweight and is a major strain on the welfare state.

Prices for agricultural inputs have been rising faster than the commodity prices farmers receive.

Although the industrial food system was successful at feeding a growing global population, in the 21st century we need new approaches that support smaller producers, improve public health and help us mitigate as well as adapt to climate change.

EMERGING TRENDS Against this background, agro-ecological techniques are increasingly recognized as viable alternatives. Agro-ecology treats the land as a specific ecosystem that needs to be Although the industrial food carefully managed, employing system was successful at feeding techniques such as intercropa growing global population, in ping, natural fertilizer, agro-forthe 21st century we need new estry and biological pesticides.

Due to its non-reliance on exter- approaches that support smaller nal inputs, it is also a method of producers, improve public health production particularly suitable and help us mitigate as well as adapt to climate change for smaller farms.

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Agro-ecological small- and medium-scale production is more socially and environmentally sustainable than industrial agriculture.

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GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

Another important development is precision agriculture.

Complex sensor systems, drones and use of meteorological information will allow for the optimization of farming practices and inputs in response to changing climate patterns.

A third trend is the development of synthetic meat in laboratories. It is expected to be available at competitive prices by 2020 and could take stress off agricultural production by largely replacing livestock husbandry.

In the realm of consumption, two trends stand out. First of all, in medium and high-income countries, there is a growing demand for healthy and sustainable food, causing a considerable expansion of the organic market.

The area of land under certified organic cultivation has grown enormously over the past decade.

Second, there is a trend towards the use of applications for health monitoring. In the future of the ‘internet of things’, your home may be equipped with sensors to optimize your food intake and minimize food waste.

In retail, the market for online food purchases has been growing everywhere.

In high-income countries in particular, there is a wave of consumers who actively want to reconnect with produc-

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ers and help them achieve greater financial security by making advance purchases via online platforms.

In addition, distribution In the future of the ‘internet will become more autoof things’, your home may be mated and decentralized, equipped with sensors to optimize with electrical driverless your food intake and minimize trucks and small drones food waste responsible for last-mile delivery. This, too, will help improve direct connections between producers and consumers while reducing food waste.

Last, public policy is already becoming more holistic and conscious of the need to facilitate the emergence of a new system through regulation. For example, there are debates around the creation of environmental taxation that discourages unsustainable economic practices by making product prices reflect the true ecological costs of their production.* On the other hand, in public health interventions, taxation or benefit payments have also been used as incentives to encourage healthy behaviors and to fight obesity.

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* Carbon taxation could be one of the most efficient means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It imposes a fee on products based on how much carbon was emitted during their production and distribution.

THE RUSSIAN CONDITION

The Russian Condition As a post-socialist transition economy, Russia’s agricultural sector faces a unique mix of challenges, but contains the seeds for a spectacular transformation.

Women working on a Soviet collective farm in the 1930s.

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The agricultural sector in Russia exhibits a dual structure deriving from its Soviet legacy: large, inefficient Agricultural Organizations (AOs), privatized successors to collective farms, exist in symbiosis with small subsidiary household plots. Although large farm enterprises control 79% of agricultural land in Russia, they produce only 43% of national food output.* Small plots, on the other hand, occupy only 7 % of agricultural land, but produce 47% of national food output.

As in the Soviet Union, the majority of them are operated informally on the side by employees of large agro-businesses. While AOs continue to use industrial practices that have been degrading soils and contaminating food, smaller plots often employ close to agro-ecological methods since they cannot afford industrial inputs.

* As one of the sectors with the least productivity gains since 1991, the share of agriculture in national GDP has dropped from over 16% in 1990 to 3.9% in 2013.

Inefficient agro-businesses control most of the land in Russia, but produce less food than household plots..

Next to this dual structure, a small independent farming sector emerged after the land reform of 1991 but never gained the same importance as its counterparts in market economies. This was due to a variety of factors: an unfavorable demographic situation in the countryside, decreased numbers of loans and subsidies for small scale producers since the mid-1990s as well as lack of market access. Furthermore, land acquisition as well as registration procedures remain too cumbersome and expensive, causing the majority of rural dwellers to rent their land 15

THE RUSSIAN CONDITION

shares to AOs rather than starting their own enterprises.

Although private farming never really took off, agricultural production and proximity to nature remain close to the heart of Russians. Even urban dwellers spend weekends on their dachas or household plots in the countryside.

While small farms across the globe are capable of competing with larger operations in terms of productivity, in Russia they even outperform highly inefficient larger operations. Unfortunately, the Russian state has never understood how to harness this potential. If Russian owners of small plots and urbanites interested in starting an operation were properly supported, this could form the basis for Russian economic growth, prosperity and food sovereignty.

RUSSIAN POTENTIAL Already, there is a small but growing grassroots movement aiming to unlock the potential of Russian agriculture. For example, Russia’s foremost organic cooperative LavkaLavka, connecting more than 100 farmers to urban consumers, helps farmers to sell While small farms across the their produce through their netglobe are capable of competing work and assures the ecological with larger operations in terms of quality of sold products by inproductivity, in Russia they even specting suppliers.

outperform highly inefficient larger

Although organic food accounts operations for only 0.2 % of total food sales in Russia, the market has been growing steadily. In 2012, sales amounted to 148 million euros, a 7.8% growth compared to 2011. While this has been possible due to a growing demand for healthy food, the majority of consumers cannot yet afford the still very expensive organic products.

Ultimately, however, the key to the transformation of Russia’s food system lies in its current geopolitical standoff with the West. As far back as 2010, the government became interested strengthening its domestic production in order to be more independent as a geopolitical

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player. After the introduction of sanctions against Western food imports in 2014, the authorities claimed that Russian domestic production would fill the gap in supply and that Russian agriculture would prosper.

Over the past 25 years large swaths of arable land in Russia fell into disuse, and are ripe for redevelopment. Ecologically restored by the passing of time, they are suitable for agro-ecological production.

So far, some initiatives have been proposed to aid this development. For example, the government has been discussing an organic certification law that will clearly define the ‘organic products’ term and its compliance with international standards.

Expected to be passed by Ultimately, however, the key to the transformation of Russia’s the end of 2015, the law will make Russian organic food system lies in its current products more competigeopolitical standoff with the West tive, while also providing further financial support for organic farmers.

Furthermore, the government is planning to open an agricultural cluster in Skolkovo to develop technologies for precision agriculture. High-tech innovation will allow Russian food producers not only to meet domestic demand, but also to produce food for export.

Nevertheless, current efforts fall short of what is needed to truly transform Russia’s food system.

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RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES

Russian Trajectories Strategic investments in small farms as well as R&D for agro-ecological techniques and precision technology will turn its agricultural sector into the most productive in the world.

Female farmers in the 2030s after the countryside has been reclaimed, with Dom Agrikultury, precision drones and a meteorological station in the background.

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If Russia is actually serious about achieving food sovereignty, it needs to take decisive and strategic action to strengthen its sector of small producers and promote sustainable methods of production. What would need to happen to make this a reality?

In 2018, the Russian government will introduce the ‘Reclaiming the Countryside’ Campaign. First, land privatization procedures will be Climate change will bring simplified and AOs will be forbidden to rent land additional advantages to Russian plots from rural dwellers. farmers by 2030 In addition, the project stimulates small-scale producers through a wide range of instruments such as subsidies for buying farm equipment, low-interest loans and lowered taxes for small-scale producers. Moreover, the government allocates money to improve the accessibility and quality of social services (education, health care, accessible housing) in rural areas.

Climate change will bring additional advantages to Russian farmers by 2030. Although Russia will suffer from extreme climatic events just like any other country, it will also gain additional arable land.

While some highly fertile areas in Southern Russia will be negatively affected by climate change, other regions will gain in arable land.

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RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES

Most importantly, small-scale farms in Russia that have already adopted agro-ecology by that time will be resilient to adverse impacts of climate change. After the international community finally agrees on binding global carbon taxation in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Russia’s small farming sector will slowly outcompete larger industrial operations at home as well as abroad.

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Moscow and its hinterland in 2065.

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RUSSIAN TRAJECTORIES

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The Future Settlement By 2065, land ownership has been democratized and individual farms dot the Russian countryside. Decentralized networks between producers and consumers as well as technology-driven precision and automation have increased sustainability.

Frank Lloyd Wright’s project Broadacre City (1932) is perhaps the first and most significant vision of a future agrarian urbanism.

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THE FUTURE SETTLEMENT

Production has become agro-ecological and the use of inputs is optimized through sensor systems and drones.

Agriculture encompasses not only food production but also ecosystem management.

Despite increased automation of processes such as planting and harvesting, the proliferation of technology has turned farming into a high-skilled profession and has created new jobs. Among the most important positions are farm manager, ecologist, Energy & IT specialist and insect farmer.

In this networked society in Production has become agrowhich land is fairly distributed, ecological and the use of inputs many farmers choose to work is optimized through sensor together in cooperatives in order to pool their resources. systems and drones. Agriculture Many cooperatives have their encompasses not only food own storage and processing production but also ecosystem facilities, while others even own management. shops in urban centers. Each district has its Agricultural Community & Training Center (Dom Agrikultury). The Center is a platform for farmer-to-farmer exchanges on best practices and innovation in agricultural production run by the state.

The transformation of food production has led to changes in the whole food system, particularly impacting consumption patterns. Communication technologies have allowed consumers to be connected to farmers and have direct insight into the way their food is produced.

Urban dwellers can place orders via online platforms.

Middle class families in particular are interested in meeting farmers when they come to cities to sell their produce in farmers’ markets.

The more affluent, on the other hand, rely on their sensor equipped homes to monitor their nutrition needs, generate precise and customized meal plans and place automatic orders for them.

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Ensuring healthy nutrition for all, the Russian state also provides a Basic Food Income (BFI) to the unemployed in urban centers. As poor families have limited amounts of food, they have to ration their consumption with precise measurement tools. In order to combat chronic diseases and cut public expenditure the state works together with insurance companies to incentivize people to consume healthy food.

Food distribution has been decentralized and automated. Instead of large distribution hubs dominating contemporary urban centers, the city is dotted with small, fully automated ports from whence electrical driverless trucks swarm out to deliver food. Smaller In order to combat chronic purchases are transdiseases and cut public ported by drones. expenditure the state works

together with insurance companies to incentivize people to consume healthy food

Large supermarkets have all but disappeared and pop-up food markets as well as cooperative shops shape the cityscape. Other distribution arrangements such as food assemblies flexibly make use of underused urban spaces such as schools or libraries for food exchanges.

Overall, food has become even more central to public space than today. Food markets in particular take center stage in the city and function as sensuous spaces of collaborative consumption and social interaction.

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PROJECT PARTICIPANTS

PROJECT PARTICIPANTS TUTOR Brendan McGetrick STUDENTS Philipp Friemann, anthropologist, Germany; Iryna Lunevich, urban sociologist, Belarus; Mihailo Popovic, architect, Serbia; Felipe Rodriguez, architect, Colombia; EXTERNAL EXPERTS Vera Boerger, FAO Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean Alexander Nikulin, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Evgeniy Goncharov, LavkaLavka

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