USERS’S MANUAL:
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
www.goethe.de/ins/hu/
Thinking together Artificial Intelligence and Us The technological enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) is skyrocketing. While newspaper articles report about the fear of intelligent robots eliminating jobs, the current use of AI is not entirely dystopian: from ragweedidentifying drones to immediate detection of diseased cells, this technology also avoids traffic jams and long lines. We collect data to make our lives calculable and the world predictable, but it is also important to recognize the potential for manipulation inherent in tools that come with power. How can we, social scientists, engineers, artists, architects, philosophers, city dwellers and villagers, young people influence where the development of AI is headed? In our workshop targeting Generation A (A as an algorithm) for 18-30 year olds, we asked with the help of a deeper understanding of AI technology and the social phenomena around it: Is it possible to create a rational and reasonable AI user guide for the society of the future? ? The publication is also the documentation of a workshop organized by Goethe Institute Budapest 12-13 March, 2020. Workshop leaders: Eszter Bajkai-Németh, Anna Tüdős Participants: Ádám Balatoni, Réka Cserháti, Kristóf Göncző, Claudia Gulyás, András Klein, Kristóf Koczka, Györgyi László, Laura Lévai, Béla Somogyi, Dániel Szalai, Réka Tersztyánszky, Kitti Tóth, Bernyett Venyige
CONTENTS -Introducing the basics - Is artificial intelligence intelligent? - Branches and applications - Artificial intelligence in our environment - Self-driving cars - How is artificial intelligence changing our concept of work? - Ethical questions - Artificiall intelligence and the future -Manipulation/politics -Warfare -Cyborgs, human/machine
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How could our civilisation form a shared set of values with AI?
AI, KI, OK? Q. What is artificial intelligence? A. It is the science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent computer programs. It is related to the similar task of using computers to understand human intelligence, but AI does not have to confine itself to methods that are biologically observable. Q. Yes, but what is intelligence? A. Intelligence is the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world. Varying kinds and degrees of intelligence occur in people, many animals and some machines. Q. Isn’t there a solid definition of intelligence that doesn’t depend on relating it to human intelligence? A. Not yet. The problem is that we cannot yet characterize in general what kinds of computational procedures we want to call intelligent. We understand some of the mechanisms of intelligence and not others. If doing a task requires only mechanisms that are well understood today, computer programs can give very impressive performances on these tasks. Q. Isn’t AI about simulating human intelligence? A. Sometimes but not always. On the one hand, we can learn something about how to make machines solve problems just by observing our own methods. On the other hand, most work in AI involves studying the problems the world presents to intelligence rather than studying people or animals.
Q. Do computer programs have IQs? A. No. IQ is based on the rates at which intelligence develops in children. It is the ratio of the age at which a child normally makes a certain score to the child’s age. Making computers that can score high on IQ tests would be weakly correlated with their usefulness. Q. What’s the difference between machinic and human intelligence? A. Intelligence is the mixture of speed, short term memory, the ability to form accurate and retrievable long term memories and the ability of someone or something to make right decisions. Computer programs have plenty of speed and memory but their abilities correspond to the intellectual mechanisms that program designers understand well enough to put in programs. The matter is further complicated by the fact that the cognitive sciences still have not succeeded in determining exactly what the human abilities are. Very likely the organization of the intellectual mechanisms for AI can usefully be different from that in people. Q. When did AI research start? A. After WWII, a number of people independently started to work on intelligent machines. The English mathematician Alan Turing may have been the first. He gave a lecture on it in 1947. He argued that if the machine could successfully pretend to be human to a knowledgeable observer then you certainly should consider it intelligent. This test would satisfy most people but not all philosophers.
Q. How far is AI from reaching human-level intelligence? When will it happen? A. A few people think that human-level intelligence can be achieved by writing large numbers of programs. Most AI researchers believe that new fundamental ideas are required, and therefore it cannot be predicted when human-level intelligence will be achieved. Q. What about making a ‘child machine’ that could improve by reading and by learning from experience? A. This idea has been proposed many times, starting in the 1940s. However, AI programs haven’t yet reached the level of being able to learn much of what a child learns from physical experience. Nor do present programs understand language well enough to learn much by reading. Algorythms are capable of implementing a winning strategy in complex games such as chess or the Asian game Go by being aware of all possible steps and making the right moves at the right time.
Q. Aren’t computability theory and computational complexity the keys to AI? A. No. These theories are relevant but don’t address the fundamental problems of AI.
Source: John McCarthy, Stanford University
Q. Don’t some people say that AI is a bad idea? A. The philosopher John Searle says that the idea of a non-biological machine being intelligent is incoherent. The philosopher Hubert Dreyfus says that AI is impossible. Various people have said that since artificial intelligence hasn’t reached human level by now, it must be impossible. Still other people are disappointed that companies they invested in went bankrupt.
Branches of AI Logical AI Search Pattern recognition Representation Inference Common sense, reasoning Learning from experience Planing Epistemology Ontology Heuristics Genetic programming
Applications of AI
Games, logical tasks Speech recognition Understanding natural language Computer vision Expert systems Heuristic classification
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*pigeon
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IMAGINE T H A T YOU’RE THE AI!
*trash *
*false detection
SELF-DRIVING CARS 1
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THERE SHOULD BE AN OFF BUTTON
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NEW TECHNOLOGY SHOULD BE SAFER THAN OLD TECHNOLOGY
Human decisions have to be able to control
Accepting the fact that accidents won’t cease to
technology.
exist, however they should be fewer.
LET’S NOT WAIT UNTIL THE TECHNOLOGY FULLY DEVELOPS WITH REGULATION
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INSURANCE COMPANIE SHOULD CREATE NEW DEAL PACKAGES
The appearance of a single self-driving car can
For liability regarding planning, executing and
already cause problems!
usage.
WE SHOULD SET UP CRITERIA
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MINIMISE MISTAKES ORIGINATING FROM MISLEADING INFLUENCING FACTORS
A person without driving licence should be able
Currently, systems can be mislead by unexpected
to drive a self-driving car without a worry.
sound, change of brightness or a well-placed sticker.
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RESPONSIBILITIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
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DEVELOPMENT AND USAGE SHOULD HAVE A COMMUNITY ELEMENT
Different traffic situations and accidents result
Eg. route planning, asking for help, systems
in different actors being responsible.
learning from each others experiences
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Like with everything involving technology and parts, seld-driving technology has bigger chances of breaking too, so I don’t trust it in the current environmental conditions.
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*crime, missing people
s X public bike-sharing system X facial recognition, X automated shops s jam ic ff X controll of tra X shopping assistance
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hat impact do technological innovations and artificial intelligence have on urban change? How can (or can they at all) help the comfort of urban people, or increase their happiness? Can AI provide an answer to the general problems of urbanism?
*alert (hospital)
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*public transport (eg.buying tickets)
* *park maintenance
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ogistics is already strongly supported by AI. In the near future, this may also apply to public transport and individual mobility: everyone has heard of self-driving cars; algorithm-based car sharing; redesigning
the ways we find a parking spot; drone taxis; magical tubes sending people and goods from one place to the other. In many ways, AI can expand and optimize mobility and make it more economically and ecologically sustainable.
HOW IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE CHANGING OUR CONCEPT OF WORK? Automation - and all the advantages, disadvantages, fears that come with it - has always been an influential factor. Every tool, every machine has historically replaced something or someone. However, AI and robotics might be accelerating this development. Nowadays we can speak of a fourth industrial revolution that builds on the third, digital revolution, but marks a separate new era. This is due to the impact of new technological developments on speed and scale within various systems ( production systems, management, or governance). Some jobs or even professions may disappear in the coming years. Emerging new occupations are more likely to favor the highly skilled, and it is precisely the less skilled workers that will be made redundant.
There are more questions, than answers
H W S H P
ow are we going to spend free time when we won’t have to work 5x8 hours? ho benefits from new technological developments and who will suffer the consequences?
hould there be a universal basic income? ow do we regulate working hours?
roductivity is growing worldwide thanks to new forms of automation, while average salaries are not following this pace. The fundamental crisis of the current concept of work is bigger than problems of AI: who could buy a house by the age of 30 today? Or earn well as a professor?
ETCHICAL QUESTIONS *
*policeman
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*trash
How can we adapt machine systems to our own goals? First, we need to define our goals and stick to them. Okay, we want AI to be ethical - but what exactly do we mean by ethical AI? “Science should operate according to its own rules, not on the basis of power or commercial interests, nor over the pressure of bureaucracy. “ In every calculation that can have multiple outcomes, there will be regular and irregular results. There will always be unintended consequences for which we cannot define obvious responsibilities. Advertisers of open access to AI (AI Commons) aim to put democratization at the heart of areas of continuous development and application. The operators of any technology have power in their hands. (Think of the Chinese digital civic system, or Russian influence through Facebook over the U.S. election.) For our part, we can also identify a problem: ignorance about the need for transparency.
HOW CAN WE USE AI TECHNOLOGY TO DO ‘GOOD’?
Hiring employees Protection of understanding of human rights Animal protection Protecting our environment Customization - offers, music, ...
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Example of ethical problems: Let’s say we want to stop famine: >restriction of population growth > emotions, ethics <> rationalisation
THE FUTURE technooptimism vs. technopesszimism
Technology plays a role not just in the prediction of future but also the OUTCOME.
1 What can be done about manipulation of information at the individual level? Not much. But in general it can be said that: the problem has to be discussed in public education tools that block fake news must be used
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we must rely on trustworthy sources we need to pay special attention on channels popular among the elderly
Instead of wanting to make machines smarter, AI should make people smarter.
2 The Internet was also developed for warfare purposes. Conversely, they want to â&#x20AC;&#x153;deployâ&#x20AC;? AI for military purposes after perfection. Illegal armaments can be detected by monitoring trade. However, it is unsure whether it will be revealed from exports / imports if someone is using a technological weapon. Artificial intelligence will play a main role in perfecting defense systems. Distopic scenario: War of Machines ABC conventions (on atomic, biological, chemical weapons)> should be supplemented with D (data)
3 Cyborgs are popular topics in sci-fi, literature, and film. Principles: obey, protect the human and protect itself The consequences need to be thought through in relation to each instruction. For example, if you say “protect me!” it can be interpreted in various ways. If you’re locked in a room, you’re protected too, but it’s not ideal for you. There is a risk of hacking: mistakes, security threats
Main questions: Can machines have emotions and rights? What is better for us if they have or do not have them? Who owns a human-like machine? The state? Anyone? Or an autonomous entity? Where do we set the boundaries for self-improvement and free will? How do we distinguish them from ourselves?
M
ovie from
recommendations the
Goethe
Workshop participants:
- Blade Runner -Ex Machina -A.I. Artificial Intelligence -Matrix -Her -Surrogates -I, Robot -Space Odyssey -Better than us -Black Mirror
AI
CONTACT: Goethe AI Workshop Facebook group
2020
www.goethe.de/ins/hu/