JULY 2016
MARKET TREND
TURMERIC ďƒ’
Turmeric remained flat on account of reports of good sowing in turmeric sowing states. Though, losses were capped with shrunken arrivals and emergence of fresh demand. Expectation of rise in demand during AugustOctober ahead of festive season and export demand which picks up during the same period may push the prices up for the time being. Sowing operations are reported in full swing in most of the producing states thanks to good monsoon rains. Traders are expecting higher acreage this year. India's 2015-2016 output was hit by weak rains.
FENNEL ďƒ’
Fennel prices remained by and large steady to a tad weak for the want of demand. There is a moderate domestic as well as overseas demand. Rains have been good for the past sometime at the producing centers but this is not expected to dent the rates much. Arrivals in the market yard were limited due to rains. Market saw an inflow of about 2000 bags as against an equal off-take
CHILLY ďƒ’
Chili prices have almost doubled in the past year. With almost negligible carryover stock and encouraging demand the trend remained strong. Prices are expected to remain high until the start of the new season. However, with the prevailing substantially high prices the farmers in the Chilli growing areas would sow Chilli in every inch of their field which may result in a bumper crop next season. The stock of red Chilli in cold storages also seems limited.
ďƒ’
Goods from cold storages are usually sold from the middle of June, however with lower production from Madhya Pradesh this year the stocks from cold storages were traded from April resulting in depletion of the buffer stock. The news about sowing from the Chilli growing states has been encouraging with the early rounds of the monsoon rains.
CUMIN
Cumin prices continued to remain high with expectation of higher export demand in coming weeks. Lower arrivals due to rains too supported the uptrend.
India's 2015-2016 Cumin export fell to 98,700 ton from 155,500 ton a year ago but during the current fiscal year exports have grown up sharply due to keen buying by China. As per the estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-2016, production was pegged at 213,000 ton up by nearly 7% from a year ago.
In Rajasthan, Cumin output was lower this year, compared to last year due to hot weather and lower acreage. Meantime, it’s learnt that the new crop supplies have started in Turkey and it may impact Indian Cumin demand in the global market. However, uncertainties prevail over export from Turkey due to the prevailing political situation.
CARDAMON ďƒ’
Green cardamom markets witnessed a firmer trend last week following sharp decline in arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Arrival of good quality material was thin at a time when there was a good domestic demand and this phenomenon has pushed up the prices of good capsules. Many small and medium dealers who needed small volumes were covering anticipating a delay in the arrival of the next crop. The next crop is also expected to be less and likely to hit the market only by next month end.
FENUGREEK ďƒ’
Fenugreek market remained stable with lack of interest. Fenugreek trade centers saw fewer activities during the last week. No substantial change was noticed in Fenugreek prices. The demand seen in the market was limited at the same time, the supply stood just enough to meet the demand. The prices in the coming days are expected to remain sideways.
PEPPER
According to report from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development; Vietnam has exported 17k tons in June 2016, valued at $ 139 million, bringing the of exports in the first 6 months of 2016 reached 107k tons (customs data) valued at 864 million, up 23% in volume and 6.6% in value compared to the same period in 2015. The average price first 6 months of 2016 reached $ 8,020 per tone, down 13.06% as 2015. The biggest Vietnam export market in the first 5 months of 2016 still the same are the United States, India, United Arab Emirates and Germany with 43.96% market share. We estimating 15 – 20ks tone was exported to Chinese through border traded (not including 107k tons of customs data). Domestic consumption is increasing year by year and roughly 8 - 10k tons (equivalent amount Vietnam bought from Cambodia). Conversion from black into white pepper around 3 - 3.5k tones (exported 11k tons during 6 months ) Therefore, we forecasting total amount for seconds half of 2016 is very tight around 30 – 35k tones . Pepper harvesting in India/Vietnam is almost complete and increasing tone in India, Sri Lanka while maintaining stability in other countries. In Lampung, Bangka and Sarawak, the price is relatively stable during june. Although sources available and coming during July but the price quite stable. May be more active when the harvest of pepper in Indonesia is beginning. Of course, Indonesian is higher level than Vietnam from 350-400 $ per tone Some report shows that Indonesia’s farming season will be reduced due to the weather conditions were not favorable.
GARLIC ďƒ’
The price of dehydrated garlic products in China is still increasing. From the beginning of July till now price increased a lot and very fast. It seems that price will continue increasing in the near future.
ďƒ’
As far as we know the reason is as follows: firstly, fresh garlic is less in market. Large quantity of fresh garlic is stored by the investor who expects to have more profit from fresh garlic. Without high price they refuse to sell out. Moreover a greater quantity of garlic bulb is kept by farmers as garlic seeds for next season. So the manufacturer of dehydrated garlic couldn't buy enough materials. Secondly, cost is too high. Even at present such a high price the manufacturer still have no much profit, which makes the passive production. Thirdly, the environmental policy from government is very strict. Most of factories are not allowed to operate, although some of them are producing secretly, which also causes higher cost and higher risk for them.