DAY 7 FINALS

Saturday, July 31

(10:30 a.m. - 12:20 p.m. Japan Standard Time)

MEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY | WOMEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE | WOMEN’S 800 FREESTYLE | MIXED 4x100 MEDLEY RELAY

MEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY

World Record: 49.50sf Caeleb Dressel, USA—Gwangju 7-26-19 2016 Olympic Champion: 50.39 Joseph Schooling, Singapore

When Caeleb Dressel climbs atop the blocks for the final of the 100 butterfly in Tokyo, his race is expected to be with the clock, not the field. The American enters the Games with five of the sixfastest performances in history, and an effort in the 49-low range is expected, with a push for sub-49 not out of the question. The two-time defending world champion was as fast as 49.76 at the U.S. Trials.

If anyone is capable of giving Dressel a scare, it is Hungarian ace Kristof Milak, who is the overwhelming favorite for Olympic gold in the 200 butterfly. Milak is the European champion in the 100 fly and 200 fly and has been 50-low in the shorter distance, but he must deliver a major improvement to enter the realm of Dressel.

Among the contenders for the bronze medal are Russia’s Andrei Minakov, the silver medalist at the 2019 World Championships, and South African veteran Chad le Clos. Australia’s Matt Temple set a Commonwealth record of 50.45 at the Aussie Trials, but replicating that effort might prove difficult in a short time frame. —John Lohn

Gold: Caeleb Dressel, USA Silver: Kristof Milak, Hungary Bronze: Andrei Minakov, Russia

WOMEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE

World Record: 2:03.35sf Regan Smith, USA—Gwangju 7-26-19 2016 Olympic Champion: 2:05.99 Maya DiRado, USA

Get ready to hear this remarkable reality a lot: The world record holder in the women’s 200 back is in Tokyo, but not swimming the event. That was the shock of the U.S. Olympic Trials when Regan Smith found herself in third place behind Rhyan White and Phoebe Bacon. Despite the fact that Smith’s best time is more than twoand-a-half seconds ahead of what it took to win gold in Rio, she won’t be in the pool to chase it.

Only Smith has broken 2:04. Only she and Kaylee McKeown have cracked 2:05.5 in the last two years. That shifts the favorite’s mantel directly to the Australian, who travels to Tokyo with a newly minted 100 back world record.

Kylie Masse showed well at the Canadian Trials, with training in that country disturbed more than most by the COVID-19 pandemic. The two Americans will contend, as will Italian Margherita Panziera off a strong spring. And veterans such as Emily Seebohm and Katinka Hosszu should never be discounted. —Matthew De George

Gold: Kaylee McKeown, Australia Silver: Kylie Masse, Canada Bronze: Rhyan White, USA

WOMEN’S 800 FREESTYLE

World Record and 2016 Olympic Champion: 8:04.79WR Katie Ledecky, USA—Rio de Janeiro 8-12-16

Katie Ledecky set the world record in the last Olympic Games in the women’s 800 free and easily won her race at the U.S. Olympic Trials. But she hasn’t swum the 800 at a major international meet in several years. At the 2019 World Championships, Ledecky was sick and was forced to pull out of the event, which was shaping up to be a pretty tight race between Ledecky and Italy’s Simona Quadarella on paper—but the moment was lost after the illness.

Ledecky, who has the top time in the world this year at 8:14.62, will be the favorite again, but it will be more than Quadarella standing in her way. Australia’s Ariarne Titmus and Kiah Melverton have the second- and third-fastest times in the world this year at 8:15.57 and 8:19.05, with Quadarella (8:20.23) and upstart U.S. 15-year-old Katie Grimes (8:20.36) close behind. —Dan D’Addona

Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia Bronze: Simona Quadarella, Italy

MIXED 4x100 MEDLEY RELAY

World Record: 3:38.41p China (Xu Jiayu, Yan Zibei, Zhang Yufei, Yang Junxuan)—Qingdao 10-1-20 2016 Olympic Champion: Olympic debut

After making its debut at the 2015 World Championships, the mixed 4x100 medley relay is set to make its Olympic debut in Tokyo. What makes this race so exciting are the strategies involved in determining which two legs will be swum by the women and which two by the men.

On paper, the favorites look to be the three medalists from the 2019 Worlds: Australia (gold), United States (silver) and Great Britain (bronze), as all three teams have at least one world record holder. But Team USA has three (Ryan Murphy, Lilly King and Caeleb Dressel. Great Britain boasts one (Adam Peaty), while Australia also has one (Kaylee McKeown).

China holds the world record in this event as the only global mark set in 2020, but they’ll need a perfect race to be able to compete with the three World Championship medalists from 2019. —Andy Ross

Gold: United States Silver: Great Britain Bronze: Australia 

>> SIMONA QUADARELLA, ITALY