DAY 6 FINALS

Friday, July 30

(10:30 a.m. - 12:10 p.m. Japan Standard Time)

WOMEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE | MEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE | WOMEN’S 100 FREESTYLE | MEN’S 200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY

>> RYAN MURPHY, UNITED STATES

WOMEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE

World Record: 2:19.11sf Rikke Moller Pederson, Denmark—Barcelona 8-1-13 2016 Olympic Champion: 2:20.30 Rie Kaneto, Japan

There are races that are close on paper. Then there’s the women’s 200 breast, which is downright congested. In the last two years, seven swimmers have posted times within 1.5 seconds of each other, led by Tatjana Schoenmaker’s 2:20.17 in April. Any of the seven could find themselves atop the podium.

Unlike the 100 breast, where Lilly King enters as the marked— if not untouchable—favorite, the field is much more open. Yuliya Efimova is the reigning world champ, though she’s now 29. King is a contender, as is American/Indiana teammate Annie Lazor. Molly Renshaw and Abbie Wood are in the picture for Great Britain. Kanako Watanabe is likely to factor in for the host country, and Canada’s duo of Kelsey Wog and Sydney Pickrem were both finalists at the last Worlds.

So, how to separate it all? Wait for two busy days of racing in Tokyo. —Matthew De George

Gold: Tatjana Schoenmaker, South Africa Silver: Molly Renshaw, Great Britain Bronze: Annie Lazor, USA

MEN’S 200 BACKSTROKE

World Record: 1:51.92 Aaron Piersol, USA—Rome 7-31-09 2016 Olympic Champion: 1:53.62 Ryan Murphy, USA

Defending Olympic gold medalist Ryan Murphy had a dominating U.S. Olympic Trials, taking the top spot in both backstroke events for the second consecutive Olympic qualifying meet. He heads to Tokyo as the second-fastest in the world this year at 1:54.20. Russia’s Evgeny Rylov has the top time at 1:53.23, making the showdown greatly anticipated.

Two more swimmers have been sub-1:55 in 2021, with Luke Greenbank of Great Britain clocking a 1:54.43 and USA’s Bryce Mefford a 1:54.79 to take the second spot on the American team. Meanwhile, Japan’s Ryosuke Irie will look to make a splash in his home country.

The U.S. has a long history in the men’s backstroke—six Olympic gold medals in a row in both the 100 and 200...ever since 1996—and Murphy is the latest to hold that torch. But this will be the toughest race of his international career, and he will have to be at his best if he wants to hold off Rylov. —Dan D’Addona

Gold: Ryan Murphy, USA Silver: Evgeny Rylov, Russia Bronze: Luke Greenbank, Great Britain

WOMEN’S 100 FREESTYLE

World Record: 51.71r Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden—Budapest 7-23-17 2016 Olympic Co-Champions: 52.70 Penny Oleksiak, Canada & Simone Manuel, USA

The women’s 100 free will be missing a key player with codefending champion and two-time world champion Simone Manuel missing the U.S. team in the event. World record holder and 2016 bronze medalist Sarah Sjostrom is still working her way back into form after an elbow fracture cost her months of training time. But with the way Emma McKeon is swimming this year, she might be favored for gold anyway.

McKeon became the sixth-fastest performer in history this year when she swam a 52.29 at Australia’s Olympic Trials, and countrywoman Cate Campbell (No. 2 all-time) is the secondquickest swimmer in 2021 at 52.59. Penny Oleksiak broke 53 earlier this year for the first time since tying Manuel for gold in 2016, and look for Dutch swimmers Femke Heemskerk and Ranomi Kromowidjojo (the 2012 gold medalist), China’s Yang Junxuan, Britain’s Freya Anderson and the USA’s Abbey Weitzeil to be among those also contending for the podium. —David Rieder

Gold: Emma McKeon, Australia Silver: Cate Campbell, Australia Bronze: Penny Oleksiak, Canada

MEN’S 200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY

World Record: 1:54.00 Ryan Lochte, USA—Shanghai 7-28-11 2016 Olympic Champion: 1:54.66 Michael Phelps, USA

The United States has long dominated the IM events at the Olympic Games. In 2016, Japan’s Kosuke Hagino snapped the Americans’ streak in the 400 IM that dated back to 1996, while the 200 IM streak began in 2004 with Michael Phelps winning the last four.

Flash forward to 2021, and with no Phelps or Lochte, the 200 IM is wide open. But enter 22-year-old Michael Andrew, who can finally validate his swimming career with an Olympic appearance. Andrew has been flirting with Lochte’s world record all year, but he did not have a fast-enough freestyle to close out his race at the Olympic Trials.

It is no secret Andrew will set the pace, and it may just leave everyone else disoriented and out of the gold medal race if he is to demolish everyone on the front half by turning a second under world-record pace. That could potentially leave the field scrambling on the freestyle leg, but nobody has been able to put up four solid 50s in the 200 IM quite like Japan’s Daiya Seto.

Seto was the 2019 world champ and looked to be the man to beat in his home country. And he may still hold that mantle, but does he have the strength and speed to match Andrew? He has only been a 1:57.4 this season, while Great Britain’s Duncan Scott and Australia’s Mitch Larkin, who relatively recently picked up this event at the international level, sit behind Andrew in the world rankings at second and third. —Andy Ross

Gold: Michael Andrew, USA Silver: Daiya Seto, Japan Bronze: Duncan Scott, Great Britain 

>> CATE CAMPBELL, AUSTRLIA