DAY 2 FINALS

Monday, July 26

(10:30 a.m. - 12:40 p.m. Japan Standard Time)

WOMEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY | MEN’S 100 BREASTSTROKE | WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE | MEN’S 4x100 FREESTYLE RELAY

WOMEN’S 100 BUTTERFLY

World Record and 2016 Olympic Champion: 55.48WR Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden—Rio de Janeiro 8-7-16

No 100 fly final has ever seen multiple women break the 56-second barrier, but expect a scorching fast race in Tokyo. Three swimmers have already been under 56 this year: USA’s Torri Huske, China’s Zhang Yufei and Australia’s Emma McKeon—all who have a realistic shot to reach the podium.

Huske was extremely impressive at the U.S. Olympic Trials, swimming a 55.66 to finish less than 2-tenths off the world record. Zhang has burst onto the scene with 55-second swims in late 2020 and in the spring of 2021, and McKeon has been a consistent podium presence in the 100 fly at the last two World Championships.

But the pick here is Maggie MacNeil, ranked fourth in the world at 56.14, but less than two years removed from stunning the world by upsetting Sarah Sjostrom to win the 2019 world title. MacNeil did not have to swim at her best to qualify for Canada’s Olympic team, so expect a huge Tokyo performance, particularly after she smashed the fastest time ever in the 100 yard fly in capturing the NCAA championship earlier this year.

Sjostrom, meanwhile, is the defending champion and world record holder, but after fracturing her elbow earlier this year, she might not even swim the 100 fly in Tokyo. Even if she does compete, her season-best time is a 57.65, so she faces an uphill battle to get on the podium. —David Rieder Gold: Maggie MacNeil, Canada Silver: Torri Huske, USA Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China

MEN’S 100 BREASTSTROKE

World Record: 56.88sf Adam Peaty, Great Britain—Gwangju 7-21-19 2016 Olympic Champion: 57.13WR Adam Peaty, Great Britain

Only one man in the last two years has swum under 58 seconds in the 100 breaststroke. That man also happens to be under 57 seconds.

If Adam Peaty does what Adam Peaty usually does, everyone else is swimming for silver. The British swimmer isn’t just aiming for a gold medal. He’s swimming to solidify his place as possibly the greatest men’s breaststroker in history. Double Olympic gold would just about do it, given his pedigree.

Beyond Peaty, there are plenty of challengers in the 58-range. Michael Andrew was outstanding at the U.S. Olympic Trials, but will have a busier schedule in Tokyo than most breaststrokers. Arno Kamminga was 58.10 in May, but was just outdueled by Nicolo Martinenghi at Sette Colli. Both are medal contenders, but it’s going to take something special to unseat Peaty from his breaststroke throne. —Matthew De George

Gold: Adam Peaty, Great Britain Silver: Michael Andrew, USA Bronze: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy

>> KATIE LEDECKY, UNITED STATES

WOMEN’S 400 FREESTYLE

World Record and 2016 Olympic Champion: 3:56.46WR Katie Ledecky, USA—Rio de Janeiro 8-7-16

Barring a surprising development, the battle for Olympic gold will be a two-woman duel between American Katie Ledecky, the reigning champ, and Australian upstart Ariarne Titmus. When the women clashed at the 2019 World Championships, Titmus upset Ledecky, who was dealing with a stomach virus that left her in lessthan-optimal form. At the Australian Olympic Trials, Titmus scared the world record with a mark of 3:56.90. Ledecky was only 4:01.27 at the U.S. Trials, but a big drop is expected in Tokyo.

China’s Li Bingjie has been 4:02 this year and will challenge for the podium, along with Italy’s Simona Quadarella. Although stronger in the 800 freestyle and 1500 freestyle, Quadarella cannot be discounted over eight laps.

An interesting storyline is Canada’s Summer McIntosh, a 14-year-old phenom who was 4:05-low in May and is on a huge improvement curve. The youngster, with range from the 200 distance through the 1500, has the potential to drop even more time and enter the mix for the bronze medal. —John Lohn

Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia Bronze: Summer McIntosh, Canada

MEN’S 4x100 FREESTYLE RELAY

World Record: 3:08.24 United States (Michael Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Cullen Jones, Jason Lezak)—Beijing 8-11-08 2016 Olympic Champion: 3:09.92 United States (Caeleb Dressel, Michael Phelps, Ryan Held, Nathan Adrian)

One cannot mention the men’s 4x100 free relay at the Olympics without first mentioning the United States, winners of nine of the 12 gold medals in this event at the Games—the last coming in 2016.

This Olympiad, however, Team USA is without the leadership of Michael Phelps and Nathan Adrian, and will need to rely on 24-year-old Caeleb Dressel to lead the team to a gold medal this time around. Behind Dressel is Olympic rookie Zach Apple, who has been known to step up on relays, along with two-time Olympian Blake Pieroni, and rising upstart Brooks Curry.

On paper, Russia looks to be the team to beat with world No. 1 Kliment Kolesnikov (47.31) and Olympic rookies Andrei Minakov and Vladislav Grinev, who both reached the podium individually at the 2019 Worlds with Minakov garnering silver in the 100 fly and Grinev bronze in the 100 free. Add in three-time Olympian Vladimir Morozov, and Russia’s speedy quarter is faster than the United States with flat-start times added up.

Dressel and Apple have been known to step up on relays, but how much of an edge can they gain on the Russians, who were right behind them at the 2019 Worlds? And behind those two nations, the bronze looks to be up for grabs among six other countries. Australia, Hungary and Brazil have all reached the podium since the U.S. won in Rio, but who will lock up the bronze in Tokyo? Our pick is Italy, who is led by Alessandro Miressi (47.45) and Thomas Ceccon (48.14) with several others in the mid-48 range. —Andy Ross

Gold: United States Silver: Russia Bronze: Italy 