Global Challenges and Solutions in Cotton Kai Hughes Executive Director International Cotton Advisory Committee
International Cotton Advisory Committee
What are the challenges for cotton ahead?
International Cotton Advisory Committee
Global Cotton Challenges • • • • • •
Climate change Ethical sustainability Traceability Sustainable inputs Yields Land-use
• • • • • • •
Water usage Quality Use of data Recycled garments Youth employment Child/forced labour Women empowerment
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• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Seed development Trade tariffs Contract sanctity Price volatility Synthetic Fibres Bad press, cotton v cotton Cotton promotion Pesticide & fertilizer usage Insect resistance Lack of small scale mechanization Synthetic fertilizers and pesticides To innovate Value addition Knowledge Transfer
Trade Tariffs www.icac.org
Exports: Share of World Total 50% USA
40% 30%
India
20% 10%
W. Africa
0%
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Brazil
World Cotton Exports Uzbekistan
17/18
0.1
35%
18/19
Australia
0.9
India
0.8
W. Africa
1.3
Brazil
The US remains the world’s largest exporter of cotton
1.4
USA
3.3 0
1
2
3
4 million tonnes
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China had been the largest trading partner with the United States for cotton China Cotton Imports by Country
‘000 tonnes
4,000
U.S.
ROW
80%
U.S. share
3,000
60%
2,000
40%
1,000
20%
www.icac.org Source: GTI – Global Trade Atlas
2018
2015
2012
2009
2006
0% 2003
0
China's cotton imports from the U.S. averaged 33% in the last decade
The US-China trade dispute is indirectly helping other cotton exporting countries China Cotton Imports by Country Quarterly Series 2016 - 2018
千 500
Brazil
400
USA
Australia
India
The share of Brazil’s cotton exports to China rose to 30.3% in 2018, which is 20% above the previous year
ROW
300 200
www.icac.org Source: GTI – Global Trade Atlas
2018:Q4
2018:Q3
2018:Q2
2018:Q1
2017:Q4
2017:Q3
2017:Q2
2017:Q1
2016:Q4
2016:Q3
2016:Q2
0
2016:Q1
100
Tonnes
China: Monthly Cotton Imports by Country 2018 120,000
Brazil
Australia
90,000 60,000 30,000 -
www.icac.org Source: GTI – Global Trade Atlas
U.S.
India
ROW
USA Cotton Exports by Destination Thousand Tonnes 2017/2018
2018/19 Vietnam 730
Vietnam 947
ROW 980
ROW 1,267 China 571 Pakistan 318
Indonesia 347
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Turkey 412
Pakistan 327
China 359 Indonesia 359
Turkey 294
Climate Change
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The Effects of Climate Change -ve effects: Higher temperatures cause; fruit loss Lower yields Lower fibre quality Reduced water use efficiencies Extreme weather events such as droughts heatwaves and floods can affect the bio diversity and yields Affects the local crop season Changes the bio diversity so certain pests and diseases may flourish Increase competition for declining water resources
International Cotton Advisory Committee
The Effects of Climate Change +ve effects: Increased CO2 may increase yields in well watered crops Higher temperatures will increase the growth of the plant
International Cotton Advisory Committee
How Could Climate Change Affect Cotton Production? Lint Yield: 1999 - 2018 Kg/ha
Changes in rainfall patterns
900
Gujarat
Maharashtra
India
750 600 450 300 150
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2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
0
How Could Climate Change Affect Cotton Production? Higher temperatures create conditions where both Insects and Diseases can easier spread or flourish
Photograph: Amos Gumulira/AFP/Getty Images
Slight changes in Humidity and Heat could cause outbreaks of the Whitefly www.icac.org
Possibility of other food pest spreading to other crops: the fall armyworm prefers maize, but can feed on more than 80 plant species including COTTON, rice, sorghum, millet, sugarcane and vegetable crops
What can be done? • Develop climate resilient cultivars • Understand which insects are naturally selected in rising CO2 levels • Need to understand the physiological determinants of cotton crop growth and development • Build resilience through diversity in crops • Increase soil fertility and protection from erosion through the inclusion of rotation and cover crops • Need to address climate change effects regionally • Need to assess the impact at business level • Understand the global changes in cotton markets • Produce simulation models to assess the impacts and adaption options for future climate change • Producing global policies to mitigate the causal factors of climate change www.icac.org
Yields www.icac.org
World Population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030 Billion
Africa
India
China
2.0 1.5
1.0 0.5
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2030
2022
2014
2006
1998
1990
1982
1974
1966
1958
1950
0.0
By increasing the yields to the world average in Maharashtra alone, lint production would increase by 1.83 million tonnes
334 kg/ha
1.38 MT
780 kg/ha
3.21 M T
4.12 M Ha
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By increasing the yields in India to the world average, lint production would increase by 3.67 million tonnes
480 kg/ha
5.87 MT
780 kg/ha
9.54 M T
12.23 M Ha
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If cotton yields are increased is all Sub-Saharan Africa then lint production would increase by an additional 2 million tonnes
351 kg/ha
1.64 MT
788 kg/ha
3.68 M T
4.67 M Ha
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Cotton Quality: Ginning International Cotton Advisory Committee
Selection of Ginning Technology Depends primarily on: • Harvesting practices • Trash content • Moisture content • Fibre length • Fuzziness It should not depend on; Capital cost, the country or funding institution www.icac.org
Double Roller Ginning • Suitable for clean cotton
• Above 28mm length fuzzy long staple varieties or black/naked seeded varieties • 35% share of world ginning. Used extensively in India and Eastern Africa • Cotton varieties with medium strength • Micronaire in range of 2.2 – 4.2 • Trash size below 6 mm • Seed can be crushed for oil milling without delinting and oil to seed ratio is better • Neps lower www.icac.org
Cotton Quality Ginning % Cote D’Ivoire
45.2
Mali
43.7
Cameroon
43.5
Australia
43.0
Burkina Faso
42.0
China USA Brazil
40.6
Pakistan
39.0 33.5
India (upland) -
10
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20
30
40
50
Sustainability and Traceability – The ‘Green Button’
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Knowledge Transfer International Cotton Advisory Committee
Solutions & Initiatives www.icac.org
Soil & Plant Health App
International Cotton Advisory Committee
What the App will do? • • • • • • • • • •
•
Unique voice based- Talking App for the illiterate farmers Four Indian languages (Hindi, Gujarati, Telugu & Kannada) Works on GPS location of the field and connects to weather data and background soil health data Runs software to monitor plant growth with heat units Runs software to measure air and soil temperature Runs software for water stress to recommend irrigation 56+ Animations on insect pests, diseases and diagnostics 146+ images related to diagnostics Printable pdf data sheets of information and recommendations related to the final diagnosis Compiles all diagnostics and issues voice advisories to communities within a zip-code area Image analysis to be linked to Artificial intelligence
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What the App will do? • Complete diagnosis for •
Soil health and plant health
•
Soil nutrient deficiencies
•
Insect pests and beneficial insects
•
Diseases and nematodes
•
Agrochemical toxicities
•
Extreme weather changes
• Based on diagnosis, the App provides eco-friendly recommendations as animation movies and data sheets • Connects data to ‘core environmental and social sustainability indicators www.icac.org
Soil & Plant Health App Can be used to; Measure environmental sustainability indicators Record levels of pesticide and water usage Measure and record climatic conditions Issue extreme weather advisories Issue warnings on pests and diseases to local farmers Analyse the effect of weather on insects Improve yields Improve quality International Cotton Advisory Committee
Virtual Reality Training
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4 Modules: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Pests and Diseases Improving Yields Dirt to Shirt Virtual Laboratory www.icac.org
Finally: Cotton Promotion ‘The Good the Bad and the Ugly’ International Cotton Advisory Committee
The Good: • Natural • Poverty alleviating • Semi Arid plant • 100% of the plant used • Numerous By Products www.icac.org
By Products: Cotton Seed Oil Seed meal cake briquettes & Pellets Particle Board Natural cotton compost Linters www.icac.org
The Bad (but may be not justified): • Water usage • Pesticide usage • The Aral Sea disaster • Cotton Versus Cotton “Organic cotton uses less water than conventional cotton” www.icac.org
The Ugly: • Child labour • Forced labour www.icac.org
Clear Cotton Social Media ICAC Website #TruthAboutCotton IFCP www.icac.org
Now for some breaking news International Cotton Advisory Committee
World Cotton Day th 7 October International Cotton Advisory Committee
Thank You International Cotton Advisory Committee