Demand for skills provokes salary rises 3 Theatre fan wins French trip in grand draw 5 Call for Top Businesswomen nominations 6 £13m for sustainable transport schemes 8
January 2015 getsurrey.co.uk/business in association with
Election result rules 2015 Business leaders are keeping a watchful eye on the outcome of May’s General Election as they prepare for further growth By Tom Smurthwaite
tom.smurthwaite@trinitymirror.com
As the main parties position themselves for the impending General Election, businesses will be watching carefully for any knock-on effects to the economy.
BUSINESS figures from across the county have given their predictions for the upcoming year, with many pointing to the importance of the General Election result in May. Richard Arris, head of Reigate investment company Brewin Dolphin, is anticipating a ‘significant year’. He said: “The unpredictable election and talk from all sides about more devolution will give us much to consider and be sure any changes will advantage our clients and our business here in Reigate. “While we are impressed with the Government’s reform of savings to date, now is perhaps the time for some stability, as too many shortterm changes to long-term savings plans can dent the confidence savers need to invest for their futures.” And David Nicol, chief executive of Brewin, highlighted the ‘most uncertain political landscape in living memory’. “There is very little idea of how this drama will play out. The biggest challenge to our industry is to ensure savers can benefit from the veritable savings revolution that starts on Flexiday in April, and for the years to come.” At Guildford law firm Charles Russell Speechlys, Jamie Cartwright, a senior associate, thinks 2015 will see the rise of mediation between businesses. He said: “With the General Election only months away all parties are gearing up
to tell us what they plan to do about the deficit, and an area that is always under scrutiny is legal reform. “Recently, the Government implemented both a rise in the cost of bringing a claim in court and also penalties for organisations that don’t seek the option of mediation before undertaking a more costly (to the taxpayer) courtbased ruling.” When used correctly, Mr Cartwright added, mediation can often be a successful way of avoiding both the risks and costs of litigation, and the wrath of the court.
‘As economic recovery has led to falling unemployment, small businesses have been disproportionately responsible for creating new jobs.’ – John Allan. Ian Miller, managing director of Shackleford pallet company Frederick Miller, believes economic recovery must be sustained throughout 2015. He said: “While no party has an ideal set of solutions, I very much hope there is no major change in power at Westminster. As for Frederick Miller, I am feeling very positive about 2015. We are anticipating significant growth from our storage and fulfilment business and will be investing further in our staff, vehicles and infrastructure in order to fuel further growth.”
Steering clear of political comment, John Allan, national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), is struck by a ‘feeling of optimism’ as he looks ahead. He said: “It feels like small business owners are finally receiving the recognition and support from across the political spectrum that has long been the mission of the FSB. “Small firms still face many issues, not least the scandal of late payment and supply chain bullying, but it seems like there has never been such a strong opportunity to make a positive impact on the outlook for small firms.” Looking back on 2014, Mr Allan noted that the number of small businesses broke five million for the first time. “There are now more entrepreneurs, sole traders and freelancers than ever. There are also more small firms taking on their first employee, growing and innovating across the UK,” Mr Allan said. “As economic recovery has led to falling unemployment, small businesses have been disproportionately responsible for creating new jobs. Our latest Small Business Index found small business productivity was in positive territory in 2014 for the first time since 2010. Mr Allan said that small business exporting is also up, along with wages in sectors like personal services, construction and agriculture. “This growth and economic contribution has not gone unnoticed,” he added.
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January 2015
My first job A PAIR of mums from Guildford and Dorking are set to expand their award-winning family club Busylizzy. Jude Hurst and Helen Oates will open their fourth Surrey club in Reigate on Monday, adding to their already established clubs in Guildford, Farnham and Woking. The company offers more than 20 different post-natal fitness, baby and toddler classes each week, and members can choose daily which ones to attend. Classes in Reigate are held at Reigate Hill Golf Club in Gatton Bottom, the Holy Family Centre in Reigate town centre, and Earlswood Common. They cost £39.50 for eight classes per month or £7.50 per single class, and a 14-day trial is available for new members. A ROSY future awaits a budding horticulturist at Merrist Wood College in Guildford, who has received a £1,000 scholarship. Charlotte Bancroft is one of six students across the UK to receive this scholarship from the David Colegrave Foundation (DCF). The 30-year-old is completing an RHS Level 3 certificate in the principles of plant growth, health and propagation at the college, as well as a three-year apprenticeship scheme at the Royal Botanic Gardens, in Kew. Her interest in horticulture stems from when she started working at a garden centre, and she has since done work experience at some of the most beautiful gardens in Europe. Charlotte said: “I really can’t believe that I have won this award. “This grant will help me so much to fund my course fees, and also the exam costs and travelling expenses to college. “Without it I would struggle to do this course. I am so grateful to everyone at DCF.” More than a third of small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) across the South East have been negatively impacted by increased operating costs, according to a leading financial services provider. Close Brothers Asset Finance surveyed 700 SMEs across the country and found that 61% are experiencing increased operating costs and, of that figure, 57% of owners say it is having a negative impact on their cash flow. Of those impacted in the region, more than two-fifths (43%) stated that rising energy bills are creating the greatest problems. The cost of raw materials and stock is causing the most pressure for more than 27% of affected firms.
Nicky Kriel, social media coach, trainer and author What was your first job? My first job after university was a marketing assistant for Lever Brothers in Durban. I was lucky to get on to the Unilever Graduate Training programme, which provided me with a very solid background in marketing. How did you get from there to where you are today? I left South Africa to see the world and my first stop was London. I’m still here 24 years later. I may not have got far, but Heathrow and Gatwick are very close by. I worked in marketing for Spillers Pet Foods (part of Nestlé now) and then took a career break to raise my three children, doing all sorts of things from selling Tupperware, books, aromatherapy and jewellery, IT recruitment and helping a friend with his start-up. I then retrained as a master NLP practitioner. I learned to use Twitter as part of marketing my life-coaching business. I was blown away
by the opportunities it created on a shoestring budget and then realised there was a great need to teach business owners how to use social media as a marketing tool. What lessons has your career taught you? I thought my career was disjointed but looking back at it, all the dots have been joined. My journalism degree, which I thought I hadn’t used, has been very useful for social media. My corporate marketing experience taught me to understand branding and my varied part-time work means I understand the trials and tribulations of micro business. My NLP training is invaluable for the human element of social media. In the last five years I have helped thousands of small business owners to use social media more strategically. It is thrilling to wake up each morning to do something I feel so passionately about.
Nicky Kriel of Jacobs Well, Guildford.
What does the future hold? I am moving my social media training online this year, so that I can help more business owners than I could face-to-face, and I am organising another Social Media Summit for Small Businesses following the
very successful one I ran at the end of 2013. The focus for this year’s social media summit is all about saving time on social media. The event is on March 5 at the Mandolay Hotel in Guildford, details at www. socialmediasummit.biz.
Gold-i celebrates gaining gold level endorsement Editorial Director Marnie Wilson Group Deputy Editor Mark Miseldine Business News Jennifer Morris Commercial Manager Amanda Ducas Regional Sales Manager Ian Bresman
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A GUILDFORD-based trading systems integration firm has attained Gold Certified Microsoft Partnership level. Gold-i, based in Occam Road, at Surrey Technology Centre, is the only organisation with a Queen’s Award for Enterprise to receive such accreditation. A Microsoft Gold Level Partner represents the highest level of competence and
expertise with Microsoft technologies, and provides an endorsement of the firm. Chief executive Tom Higgins, said: “The process was very rigorous, involving a thorough assessment of our software, processes and customer service. “Clients provided detailed feedback about working with us and we also provided Microsoft with all the data
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Tom Higgins, chief executive, and his team at Gold-i.
from our 2014 client satisfaction survey. “Microsoft Gold Certified Partners are Microsoft’s most highly accredited independent technology providers and I’m thrilled that we have qualified at this level – it really validates the quality of our software.” The accreditation provides the firm with access to exclusive Microsoft resour-
ces, as well as support and access to the Partner Knowledge Base. Gold-i products are highly scalable and will work with any asset class in retail and institutional trading on a global basis. Products and services address four key areas – risk management, liquidity, integration, and hosting and server management.
January 2015
Demand for skills provokes salary rises By Guy Martin
guy.martin@trinitymirror.com SURREY lies in a region experiencing above average salary rises, figures show. While the UK’s average increase over the past year is 1.8%, in the South East it is 2% – and rises of more than 10% have been achieved by some qualified, professional and skilled workers. Some of the greatest hikes have been in construction, IT and procurement. The analysis, by recruitment company Hays, has also revealed that 64% of employers in the region are planning
pay increases in the next 12 months, which again is higher than the UK average. The survey of more than 1,000 employers and employees in the South East indicated that organisations are confident that their business activity will increase over the next year and this will result in greater hiring. Anticipated skills shortages is intensifying what Hays has labelled a ‘war for talent’. Steve Orr, regional managing director of Hays, said: “Although salary increases aren’t yet widespread, there are definite pockets of very significant rises, which have
been fuelled by skill shortages. To date, the greatest salary increases have been in sectors suffering from skill shortages where there simply aren’t enough people to fill the gaps. “IT, finance, engineering and construction are all prime areas where job seekers often have the pick of two or three jobs – they get snapped up quickly by employers and they often receive a counter offer from their current employer, which can push their salary up even further. “We are seeing many opportunities for Surrey workers in a range of professions.
“Growth of local business and the increase in house building means salaries are increasing and estimators, engineers and surveyors can receive double digit salary increases as they are in such short supply. “Job seekers need look no further than their local area for roles that are crucial to growth of the local economy, with increasing pay too. “Given that businesses are now more confident about the year ahead and they have plans to take on more staff, we expect to see salary growth take a greater hold by the middle of next year.”
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Salary rises in the South East were above the national average last year, with some employees gaining 10% increases.
Merger sees Guildford law firm join growing business A LAW firm in Guildford began the new year by announcing a merger with a leading company in the South East. AWB Partnership merged with DMH Stallard in a deal effective from Thursday January 1, and it will now use the DMH Stallard title. DMH Stallard already has offices in London, Brighton, Farnham and Gatwick, and this deal sees its team grow to 57 partners and more than 250 staff and professionals. All of the staff from what was AWB Partnership will remain in the Guildford office, including the seven partners. Phil Clark, from Mace, Dave Cook, from Morgan Sindall, and Jamie Barrett, from Evolution5. Pictures: Jake Darling.
Central base allows Morgan Sindall to build on its success Construction and infrastructure firm Morgan Sindall is celebrating the opening of a new office in Guildford. The office, at Bramley House in Old Portsmouth Road, is home to 50 staff and covers construction projects across the south of England. The new base brings together two teams that were formerly based at offices in Reigate and Fareham. Dave Cook, area director at Morgan Sindall, said: “It’s an exciting time for the business and we’re very pleased to be installed and fully operational at our new office. “Guildford is a fantastic central location and provides the perfect base for our team. “We’re working on a number of key projects in the region – we welcomed new and old friends and neighbours to our new offices and it was a very festive and enjoyable celebration.” Projects that are progressing out of the Guildford office include a £7.1 million scheme
Peter Thomas and Dave Cook, from Morgan Sindall, with Caroline Gibbs, from Bond Bryan Architects.
at Canterbury College, in Kent to construct a new business and enterprise centre, sports facilities and an art building. The company is also making good progress on a £13m student accommodation dev-
elopment for the University of Roehampton in the grounds of the Grade II-listed Downshire House, and is delivering a £13m leisure centre for the London Borough of Hounslow.
Richard Pollins, managing partner of DMH Stallard, led the deal and said: “I’m delighted to announce that our merger with AWB Partnership is now complete. “A merger with a high quality firm in Guildford has always been part of DMH Stallard’s long-term growth strategy. “The newly-expanded firm allows us to service our growing client base in the region. “It also supports our private client practice, which is significantly boosted by AWB’s tremendous reputation in this area, and one which I am sure
we will build upon further as one firm.” Over the next 12 months, DMH Stallard intends to relocate its presence in Farnham and the current AWB office into one new Guildford office. Richard Middlehurst, managing partner of the former AWB Partnership, said: “We have an established reputation for putting personal client service at the heart of our culture and we are proud to support the people of Guildford and their families. “This merger will allow us to continue being a trusted law firm while also providing
greater strength in depth to both individuals and businesses who require full service commercial support and advice. “We are absolutely delighted to have completed this merger with DMH Stallard. Their stature and reputation in the market is well-established and will provide the platform we need to offer a very compelling service to our clients.” The merger will add significant expertise across a range of disciplines, including private client, family, litigation and real estate.
Young start-ups receive Sirius backing University of Surrey graduates are among the beneficiaries of a government start-up support scheme as becoming an entrepreneur remains a big aspiration for young adults, according to a new report. Through the second intake of its Sirius programme, UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) is helping 24 new companies to launch in the UK. A report, published by UKTI and The Economist Intelligence Unit, surveyed more than 400 18- to 25year-olds and found that 44% of those seeking to become an entrepreneur were motivated by financial independence, and 37% by personal satisfaction. Just 7% had already established their own business. One of the start-ups selected for the Sirius programme was the cancer technology provider True-Invivo. The project was founded by Shabnam Jamshidi, from Iran, and University of Surrey graduate Shakardokht Jafari, from Afghanistan, who was determined to make a difference after watching a friend die from the disease. “The UK has a reputation
Shakardokht Jafari and Shabnam Jamshidi, of True-Invivo, have seen their company selected for the second intake of the UKTI’s Sirius programme.
for quality and innovation. We really appreciate the support that Sirius offers us. There is nothing like it in my home country,” Shakardokht said. “We plan to use the UK as a base from which to target other markets like the Middle East, India and China, and are confident that the Sirius programme will help us achieve our objectives.” True-Invivo produces a
device that provides more accurate doses of radiation to patients, allowing treatment to be targeted at tumours rather than healthy cells. UKTI managing director, Michael Boyd, said: “More and more young people the world over are enthused by the prospect of owning their own company. “Identifying and attracting high-quality investment is a
core aim for UKTI. “The UK is the most popular location in Europe for start-ups and through our Sirius programme, we help some of the world’s most promising international graduate entrepreneurs take their ideas from a dream to reality. “I encourage all companies thinking of setting up in the UK to contact UKTI to find out how we can help.”
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AWARD CATEGORIES... PRESENTS...
APPRENTICESHIP SCHEME OF THE YEAR COMPANIES WITH A TURNOVER OVER £5 MILLION COMPANIES WITH A TURNOVER UP TO £5 MILLION COMPANIES WITH A TURNOVER UP TO £1 MILLION CREATIVE INDUSTRIES HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
BUSINESS AWARDS Now in it’s seventh year, the Toast of Surrey Business Awards celebrates the success of businesses and recognises their contribution to the economy, community and prosperity of our county. We’re looking for companies that showcase the skills and strengths of a business community often described as the engine room of the nation’s economy, to celebrate achievements with their professional peers - and for those who are successful to proudly boast that they are a Toast of Surrey Business Awards winner.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE SOCIAL ENTERPRISE YOUNG BUSINESS OF THE YEAR (trading less than 12 months)
GREEN AWARD DIRECTOR OF THE YEAR
The awards are a way of saluting the spirit of entrepreneurship that is part of Surrey’s DNA.
WHY ENTER? The Toast of Surrey Business Awards has taken place annually since 2009, steadily growing in scale and stature to become one of the most prestigious events on the Surrey business calendar and a highly regarded accolade.
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Raise the profile of your company. Celebrate what your organisation does well Shortlisted companies are invited to the glittering ceremony in April 2015 at Woking’s HG Wells Centre Exposure in the Surrey Advertiser’s post awards supplement It’s FREE to enter and it’s great PR!
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getsurrey.co.uk/ToastOfSurrey CLOSING DATE: Tuesday 30 January 2015
January 2015
Ooh là là! Theatre fan wins French trip in grand draw Raffle winner is off to Bordeaux, Yvonne Arnaud’s birthplace By James Watkins
james.watkins@trinitymirror.com A THEATRE in Guildford has thanked the ‘great generosity’ of a Haslemere business in donating the top prize for its 2014 draw. The Yvonne Arnaud Theatre held its annual Grand Prize Draw on Friday January 2, and out of the thousands of entries it was the ticket belonging to John Walton, from Farnborough, that scooped the first prize. Mr Walton won a twonight gastro experience for two at Le Saint-James Hotel, in Bordeaux, France, courtesy of the award-winning independent travel agency, Haslemere Travel. The delighted winner said he was an avid theatre-goer and has been regularly att-
ending shows at the Yvonne Arnaud since it opened. “My wife, Ann, and I have always enjoyed visiting the Yvonne Arnaud and have been buying tickets for their annual Grand Prize Draw for many years now – we never expected to win so this is a terrific surprise,” he said. The theatre, in Millbrook, announced that the French city was particularly pertinent to the competition as Bordeaux was the birthplace of the actress Yvonne Arnaud. In addition to staying in the hotel, the prize includes a cookery class, wine tasting and a tour of the hotel’s vineyard and kitchen, as well as gastronomic experiences in the hotel’s restaurants. Mr Walton added: “Although we’ve been to France several times, we’ve
never actually visited Bordeaux before. “Ann loves cookery programmes, so she is particularly excited about the French cookery class. “We’re both really looking forward to our trip.” Funding executive at the Yvonne Arnaud Theatre, Madeleine Coleman, said: “Congratulations to all the 2014 Grand Prize Draw winners. We’re very lucky to be able to give out some wonderful prizes. “We would like to say a big thank you to the generous local businesses who make this possible by donating such great prizes, and to our loyal patrons who support this important annual fundraiser by purchasing tickets.” The managing director of Haslemere Travel, Gemma
Antrobus, said: “Haslemere Travel was, once again, delighted to support Guildford’s Yvonne Arnaud Theatre’s Grand Prize Draw with a luxury holiday prize donation. “We are huge fans of this wonderful theatre and a gourmet trip to Yvonne Arnaud’s birthplace in Bordeaux seemed to be the perfect top prize. “Our team in Haslemere now look forward to ensuring John and Ann have an amazing holiday in Bordeaux in the near future.” Other prizes that were scooped up by lucky raffle winners this year included a three-month family membership to Surrey Sports park, shopping vouchers, a family portrait with Kate Griffin Photography and dinner at Guildford’s restaurants.
Just the ticket: Grand Prize Draw winner John Walton picks up his prize from Gemma Antrobus (centre), the managing director of Haslemere Travel, and Madeleine Coleman, fundraising executive at the Yvonne Arnaud theatre, in Millbrook, Guildford. Picture: Graham Larter.
Sponsor’s feature
Divorce need not be a January taboo Trained intermediaries can ensure break-ups are dignified It is said that ‘the darkest hour of the night comes just before the dawn’. This quote, from Thomas Fuller, is true in the context of a relationship breakdown and the festive season. The annual spike in divorce petitions in January may sound like a depressing headline, but for those stuck in an unhappy relationship, January may be the first month of the start of a brand new and brighter life. Christmas can be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Families are expected to be harmoniously together, but the reality can be a household of unhappiness and tension, mixed with tiredness and alcohol that brings an inevitable conclusion if a relationship was already floundering on the rocks. Up until 10 months or so ago, the effects of the recession reduced the numbers of divorces considerably. People were staying toge-
ther because of economic necessity. The reduction in property values and the onerous conditions on bank lending were two reasons, but in relation to the first, prices have bounced back (in the South East at least) and people stuck in unhappy relationships started to ‘make the break’. There has been a subtle but noticeable shift in the attitudes of divorcing, especially where children are involved. There will always be those who want their ‘moment in court’, but the cost, time and unpredictability of the outcome are making alternative methods of separating increasingly attractive. These alternative means of separating amicably, known colloquially as ‘divorce with dignity’, are using either mediation or collaborative techniques. With both, the couple is encouraged to seek agreement on division of assets and parenting of their children for
themselves, guided by trained intermediaries with skills in negotiation, diplomacy and agreement brokering.
‘The benefits of an amicable separation, followed by an agreed way ahead, is clearly very helpful where children are involved.’ The theory is that any settlement is likely to be adhered to as it was agreed between the parties involved as opposed to being imposed upon them. Many in the TWM family team have this training and are experienced in the role described. The benefits of an amicable separation, followed by an agreed way ahead, is clearly very helpful where children are involved. Children should not be-
come victims of their parent’s split and yet statistics show that children from homes with separated parents are more likely to divorce than those from settled backgrounds. Most reasonable people have the welfare of their children to the fore when going through the trauma of a separation, and want to protect them as best they can. The Help and Support for Separated Families is a mark established in 2014 that demonstrates an adviser’s commitment to promoting parents working together after a relationship breakdown. A number of the team hold this accreditation and others are working towards it. TWM Solicitors specialises in helping couples who wish to separate to do so in a way that respects the interests and values of both people, helping reach a fair settlement in terms of financial arrangements and access to children, providing a firm foundation for both to build their separate lives going forwards. For more information contact Jacky Butt or Lynn Child at TWM Solicitors’ Guildford office on 01483 752 700.
Family & matrimonial law Problems or challenges within a family require the expertise, understanding and trust of a skilled family solicitor to help find a resolution. TWM Solicitors has such a team, able to assist with the following:
• Divorce / separation • Pre-marriage agreements • LGBT family advice • Children • Adoption Contact either Jacky Butt jacky.butt@twmsolicitors.com or Lynn Child lynn.child@twmsolicitors.com on 01483 752700 who will be happy to help.
Jacky Butt
Lynn Child
www.twmsolicitors.com
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January 2015
Call for Top Businesswomen nominations Surrey Chambers’ Business Women in Surrey (BWiS) is calling for nominations for its inaugural 2015 Top Businesswomen in Surrey List. Introduced to highlight the impressive and varied business talent prevalent across the county, those on the list are nominated and voted for by friends, family and colleagues. Nominations are now open and Surrey business people are invited to publicly thank and promote the women they feel have made a significant and worthwhile contribution to their local business community. We want to celebrate everything good that is happening across the Surrey business world, thanks to the businesswomen of today, so we are reaching out to you to nominate those you believe deserve recognition for all that they do. Success can be defined in a multitude of ways, so nominations from all walks
of life are welcome. From young entrepreneurs to mentors and business owners, innovative and forwardthinking staff, and those who relentlessly give back to the community. Names already on the list include: Sue Biggs, director general of the Royal Horticultural Society; Helen Collins, detective chief superintendent at Surrey Police; best-selling author Adele Parks; and the editor of Surrey Life magazine, Caroline Harrap. BWiS is a local network of like-minded business people – male and female – sharing ideas, knowledge and skills via workshops, mentoring programmes, seminars and its annual flagship event, which celebrates all that is great about businesswomen in the county. For further information and to register your nomination, visit www.businesswomeninsurrey.co.uk before January 30.
On the list: Sue Biggs, director general of the Royal Horticultural Society.
Once all the names are in, voting will begin on February 1 to create the final inaugural BWiS 2015 Top Businesswomen in Surrey List, which will be announced in full in
March at the annual BWiS flagship event in celebration of International Women’s Day. Don’t delay – nominate today.
Author Adele Parks is also on the Top Businesswomen in Surrey list.
Seminar outlines how airport expansion will mean business
January
13 Tue
Chamber Connections Epsom Breakfast, Epsom Downs Racecourse, Epsom. Members £12, non-members £20;
8am
9.30am
16 Fri
Chamber Connections Woking Breakfast, Holiday Inn Woking. Members £12, non-members £20;
8am
9.30am
21 Wed
Breakfast – Winning Business with Effective Communications, with Mark Rhodes. RHS Wisley, Woking. Members £20, non-members £30;
8am
9.30am
27 Tue
Open 18 Hole Golf Competition at Hankley Common Golf Club, Tilford. Members £52.50, non-members £75;
8am
5.30pm
27 Tue
Knockout Results! Surrey Chambers Business Breakfast, Foxhills Resort and Spa, Ottershaw. Members FREE, non-members FREE;
7.30am
9am
28 Wed
Be Inspired – Make it happen – Women in Business, Surrey National Golf Club, Chaldon. Members FREE, non-members FREE;
9.30am
2.30pm
29 Thu
Chamber Connections Waverley Breakfast, Waverley Abbey House, Farnham. Members £12, non-members £20;
8am
9.30am
29 Thu
Exclusive visit to Vodafone’s Headquarters, Vodafone HQ, Berkshire. Members £30, non-members £60;
10.30am
2pm
29 Thu
The future of aviation: Connecting Britain. Faster, Mercure Burford Bridge Hotel, Box Hill. Members FREE, non-members FREE;
8am
9.45am
30 Fri
Explore how to get the best finance to meet your business needs, Surrey National Golf Club. Members FREE, non-members FREE.
8.30am
11am
To book, visit www.surrey-chambers.co.uk or call 01483 735540 (All prices are exclusive of VAT)
The UK is currently one of the best connected countries in the world, but many of our airports are full. As demand for air travel increases, politicians, business leaders and aviation experts have all argued that the UK urgently needs to expand its airport capacity. In September 2012, the Airports Commission was established to consider how best to provide that capacity. It reported back in December 2013, confirming a need for one additional runway in the South East of England by 2030, and listed a number of options. That list was refined further last March, leaving Heathrow and Gatwick as the only options left under consideration. The Airports Commission will recommend a new
runway at either Gatwick or Heathrow after the General Election in May. The country needs an aviation solution for the challenges of the future. Without increasing airport capacity, the UK will lose out on business competitiveness. Surrey Chambers of Commerce is hosting an event with Gatwick Airport and the British Chambers of Commerce to explore the issues surrounding our country’s airport capacity. Delegates are invited to attend an informative sem-
inar on Thursday January 29, where they will be able to take part in an interactive Q&A sessions with representatives from the airport. They will also have the opportunity to learn how the aviation capacity issue has an impact on business, hear how Gatwick intends to deliver greater connectivity for UK businesses and share their opinions on how this debate affects their local business. For more information and to book your place, visit the Surrey Chambers website or call 01483 735 540.
Be part of the network - find out how Surrey Chambers of Commerce membership can help your business at www.surrey-chambers.co.uk
January 2015
Investment watch
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Keeping an eye on the markets
Economy on track but what for markets in 2015? By Philip Scott
Director at SI Capital
Philip Scott of SI Capital. This report was written by Philip Scott, director at SI Capital on 6/1/15 when the FTSE 100 was trading at 6400.
Current Macroeconomic forecasts Happy New Year to readers and investors alike. The economic outlook for the UK over the next year looks favourable. While 2014 saw growth at 3%, 2015 is still set for around 2.5% and in a post-credit crisis period, this is reasonable. Only the US will fair better in the G7. Capital investment levels will be around 6% (down from near 8% over the past year) so over a two-year period, this is three times the growth rate. Inflation is falling, fuelled by weakening oil, and could be to zero if oil stays low by half way through the year. This means the UK is not getting more expensive and an increase in interest rates becomes less likely near term. Unemployment will hit 5.5% in 2015, below the 6% average of the Eurozone, making our rate one of the lowest. Wage growth is improving, above the inflation rate, and a 2.4% increase is forecast this year. An increase in living standards should accompany and an improvement in household disposable income (adjusted for inflation) by 2% plus over last year. Such conditions will put pressure on the Bank of England to increase base rates. Many economists believe the rate rise cycle should
have already started fearing more rapid, larger incremental rises will need to come to temper potentially quick rises in growth and inflation in due course. Whether a rate rise is seen this year is unclear, but the central bank has promised slow and small gradual tightening when the time comes. This approach should allow for the normalisation of growth managed selectively by monetary policy, as seen in historic pre-crisis periods. The stock market can hopefully absorb this change in policy stance. A 1% base rate is forecast by the end of the year, up from the current level of 0.5%. Market commentary As for how the above landscape will impact the activity in stock markets this year is difficult to predict. For one, the UK market is made up largely of globally orientated companies with few solely UK centric. Secondly, there is little by way of empirical correlation between economic statistics and share price behaviour. Stocks are vulnerable to much more than generalist economic data and the market will be predictably volatile as mood swings materialise on the back of ever changing ‘events’. A salient feature of this year’s market activity will be the impact of the materially lowered oil price. Whether the global economy will see net benefits from
lowered oil remains to be seen. Indeed, oil could yet recover over the next few months. But lowered oil will mean cash windfalls for select (oil costed) companies and consumers alike. Immediate thoughts turn to potential beneficiaries such as travel, clothing, restaurant and manufacturing companies. Looking back, 2014 was ultimately disappointing as miners (commodities) and supermarkets continued lower, and further pressure came in the second half from the collapse in oil (which, incidentally, no one predicted). Combined, these sectors account for a large weighting in the level of the market. Many large investment banks actually had targets of 7,500 for the FTSE 100 for the end of last year, and we ended 1,000 points below that. It was a difficult year for active managers to make money. Nimble markets participants (those who embrace market swings) will find opportunities this year. For example, some believe markets in general are already high enough in view of risks; the US market, for example, is trading near all-time highs and on a full valuation. Lower oil has, however, brought significant price weakness to this specific sector already, and a prediction for 2015 will be consolidation (takeover) activity in this space. The knack will prove to be in the right (and not the wrong) oil com-
panies, for while some will be taken over, some will probably go to the wall. Expect action in the small- to mid-cap company arena in particular. Turning to different geographic regions, the US is leading the world out of the shadow of the credit crisis and this trend (for most) is expected to continue in 2015. Growth is robust (expect an interest rate rise by mid-year) and their competitive advantage is being boosted because of their plentiful oil and gas shale capabilities. But countries dependent on oil, such as Russia, are vulnerable if the black stuff remains below $80 per barrel and anxiety levels relating to the economic consequences of the potential malaise of these countries will continue to weigh on sentiment at a minimum. I predict progress towards improving relations between Russia and the West as the year unfolds. A deepening in the Russian relationship with China cannot be ruled out either. Chinese growth is strong but slowing, and there are challenges ahead. Further monetary easing is likely but caution abounds regarding the potential for a property market crash; market bulls will be hoping this does not materialise. The world’s second largest economy is pivotal in the global capital machine. Japan continues to be assisted by large-scale money printing and 2015 will be key
in seeing whether this region can finally resume a consistent growth trajectory. Europe has been, and remains the major problem zone in the world. Expect imminent QE (bond buying) stimulus as the European Central Bank (ECB) attempts to kickstart the region. German resistance to this plan will have to abate and there should be at least some short-term relief in markets when the ECB’s plan is revealed. Europe is likely a contrarian investment opportunity on the basis that things can probably not get much worse. If not owning European companies directly, consider investing via a diversified Investment Trust or companies with exposures to the region (many are listed in the UK). A final note relating to the impending UK May election, which will naturally bring some uncertainty. A Tory win (my prediction) will bring an EU referendum earlier than 2017, where the UK’s relationship with the Eurozone will be further ‘explored’. Again, it is tough to predict how markets will fair pre and post the poll, with it far from clear who will be tasked to govern. In conclusion Themes to watch this year: oil/energy sector, oil sensitive groups, miners for contrarian total return (dividend and capital growth potential), and my year-end FTSE 100 prediction is 7,000.
Regus rejoices in collecting boxes of gifts for world’s poorest children The successful collection of shoeboxes for a Christmas charity appeal has led to a company with offices across Surrey receiving thanks. Charity Samaritan’s Purse distributed boxes around the world to underprivileged children in orphanages, hospitals and refugee camps as part of operation Christmas Child. The shoeboxes, packed by the public, businesses, schools and churches, contained everything from sweets and toys to toothbrushes and colouring books. This is the second year that global workplace provider Regus has been involved in the shoebox appeal. Acting as collection points for the boxes, almost 300 of the company’s UK centres took part, including Hillswood Business Park in Chertsey; Motorway Services in Cobham; Frimley Road in Camberley; Castle Street in Farnham; Cathedral Hill, Farnham Road and High Street in Guildford; Kingston Road in Leatherhead; Claren-
don Road in Redhill; London Road in Staines; Duke Street in Woking; and Brooklands Business Park in Weybridge. More than 5,000 shoeboxes were collected between them. Simon Barrington, executive director of Samaritan’s Purse, said: “We would like to thank the Regus network of local workplace centres for their support again this year, as well as all the members of the public who wrapped, packed and brought in their shoeboxes. “Thanks to them, many thousands of children who otherwise wouldn’t have received any presents this Christmas, knew they were not forgotten.” Richard Morris, chief executive of Regus in the UK, said: “We’re delighted to have been involved in the appeal again this year and the response has been fantastic. “Our centre teams across the UK thoroughly enjoyed taking part and doing their bit for such a worthwhile cause.”
A child receives their Christmas present, kindly donated through the Operation Christmas Child appeal, in OCC Mexico, Guadalajara. Picture: Matt Powell. Samaritan’s Purse.
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January 2015
£13m investment in transport routes to boost connectivity Sustainable transport schemes will be created to benefit pedestrians and cyclists, plus free Wi-Fi for commuters FUNDING of more than £4 million has been announced for new transport schemes across Surrey and Hampshire. The investment in 11 projects, by Enterprise M3, will unlock a further £9m of matched funding to ensure the completion of the schemes. It will include projects in Guildford, Egham and the Blackwater Valley, and will see improvements to internet connections on public transport services. Enterprise M3 has said the schemes have been specifically selected because they met essential criteria with regard to the economic benefits they would bring to the region, as well as environmental improvements. It is hoped that some of the incentives will encourage greater take up of cycling through the expansion of routes, along with improving pedestrian access throughout the Enterprise M3 area. Geoff French, chairman of
Enterprise M3 Local Enterprise Partnership, said: “The ability of sustainable and environmental transport schemes to unlock economic growth and development is too often overlooked. Investing in sustainable transport schemes, such as pedestrian walkways and cycle routes that can help reduce the economic cost of congestion, is extremely valuable in Surrey and Hampshire. “Giving commuters access to Wi-Fi on public transport provides a significant benefit, enabling them to work and access vital information on the move. “Investment in these schemes reinforces our commitment, as a LEP, to further developing the region’s vital
infrastructure which, in turn, will help support even more economic growth.” One of the projects includes phase one of the Guildford Riverside Route, connecting the A25 Woodbridge Road to the A320 Woking Road. There will be a 1.24km traffic-free cycling and walking route along the River Wey and Godalming Navigations towpath around Parsonage Meadows. Another will see improvements in Wi-Fi connections for rail passengers. “This improvement will provide free Wi-Fi for passengers at five of the most heavily used railway stations in the LEP area, in partnership with train operator South West Trains – Woking, Guild-
One of the projects earmarked for funding is phase one of the Guildford Riverside Route along the River Wey Navigation (above), connecting the A25 Woodbridge Road with the A320 Woking Road. Pictures: Steve Porter.
ford, Basingstoke, Farnborough Main and Aldershot, and also equip bus routes in the Blackwater Valley, Basingstoke and Winchester areas with on-board free Wi-Fi to enable bus passengers to make full productive use of travel time,” a spokesman for Enterprise M3 said. “It will also equip bus routes in the Blackwater Valley, Basingstoke, Andover and Winchester areas with the technology required to make audio-visual next stop announcements on the bus, to give confidence to occasional or infrequent bus travellers as to where to alight.” Another scheme has seen a ‘Sustainable Transport Package’ put together for Egham. “The proposal is for a package of sustainable transport measures comprising cycling and walking, which will bring forward planned development opportunities and unlock further economic growth linked to a major transport improvement scheme at Runnymede Roundabout,” the spokesman said. The Blackwater Valley Better Connectivity project aims to improve connectivity between railway stations and residential, business areas and town centres. This will include improved walking and cycling infrastructure, upgrading existing routes or creating new routes – providing a total of around 35km of new or improved infrastructure. “A programme of improved bus passenger waiting infrastructure and information will also be provided to complement the scheme,” the spokesman added.
A ‘Sustainable Transport Package’ has also been created for Egham town centre, creating development and economic growth opportunities linked to a transport improvement scheme at Runnymede Roundabout. Pictures: Darren Pepe.