The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2017 4th Quarter Edition
Mike Niethammer Hawaii’s Dealer of the Year See story page 8
Also in this Edition...
Governor’s Executive Order
EO 07-17
Whereas… Governor David Ige issued an Executive Order involving HADA in the development of driverless technology. See reference in President’s Remarks, page 4
Blues Brothers Pete Luke and Byron Hansen hosted the HADA convention’s golf awards banquet. Page 24
Hawaii’s four county mayors released a joint proclamation with the goal of Hawaii being 100% fossil-fuel-free by 2045. See page 13
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With active safety features including Pre-Collision System (PCS)1, Lane Departure Alert (LDA) 2 and others now standard on many new Toyotas – such as the first-ever 2018 C-HR and the all-new redesigned 2018 Camry—safety comes at no additional cost. Toyota Safety SenseTM (TSS) 3. It’s got your back. And sides. And front. VISIT TOYOTAHAWAII.COM OR SEE YOUR TOYOTA HAWAII DEALER TODAY.
1. The TSS Pre-Collision System is designed to help avoid or reduce the crash speed and damage in certain frontal collisions only. It is not a substitute for safe and attentive driving. System effectiveness is dependent on many factors including road, weather and vehicle conditions. See Owner’s Manual for additional limitations and details. 2. Lane Departure Alert is designed to read visible lane markers under certain conditions, and provide visual and audible alerts when lane departure is detected. It is not a collision-avoidance system or a substitute for safe and attentive driving. Effectiveness is dependent on many factors including road, weather, and vehicle conditions. See Owner’s Manual for additional limitations and details. 3. Drivers are responsible for their own safe driving. Always pay attention to your surroundings and drive safely. System effectiveness is dependent on many factors including road, weather and vehicle conditions. See Owner’s Manual for additional limitations and details.
The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2016 4th Quarter Edition
Sponsors of the
HawaiiDealer help HADA dealers fulfill the association’s mission.
Jim Falk is Hawaii’s 2017 Dealer of the Year
Jim Falk’s Maui dealerships provide 400 to 500 bicycles and helmets to kids at Christmastime. See story page 14
Also in this Edition...
Pete Luke and Byron Hansen emceed the Awards Night at the HADA convention on Kauai which drew a record 262 attendees. See page 10
New vehicle registrations leveling off — see Hawaii Auto Outlook. Page 26
The “Bloody Thorn” — a story shared at the annual meeting of the association. See page 11
The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2017 1st Quarter Edition
START THE
EXCITEMENT! AT THE
THE HADA Mission:
TAKING THE SHOW TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL... More supercars than ever A hot concept car that was one of the stars of the SEMA show Lots of brawny trucks Sculpted-body sportscars
"To help auto dealers comply with the laws, to make car buying (and servicing) by the general public, trouble free.”
Wall-to-wall displays
MARCH 24–26 See President's remarks page 4
Also in this Edition...
Communications are key. Mahalo to all of the 25 sponsors of the official publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. Here’s to a great 2018!
Dealer Day at the Capitol See pictorial, pages 14–17
See how online vehicle registration will speed up commerce.
HADA Convention room reservations are open. See page 30
Page 8
The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2017 Summer Edition
Magical Maui
Advertise In The
HawaiiDealer
M E, CO
LEARN WH AT ’S
UP T D! HE ROA
R E CO R D AT TE N DA N C E ANTICIPATED AT THE 58TH HADA CONVENTION OCT. 58, 2017, ON MAUI (see story page 8)
THE ROAD TO THE SUMMIT OF HALEAKALA IS THE SHORTEST DISTANCE BY ROAD IN THE WORLD FROM SEA LEVEL TO 10,000 FEET. Also in this Edition...
Established under HADA president Charlie King in 2002, the HawaiiDealer is a quarterly magazine that provides information on the activities of HADA members to a wide audience, including the membership of the Association, key employees at the dealerships, legislators, city council members, Hawaii media, the Congressional Delegation, and many Hawaii sister organizations. HADA appreciates the “sponsorship” of the official publication through the provision of sixth, third, half, and full-page color messages.
1st Half of 2017
up 5.1.% Eric Chester—who is on the national speakers’ registry—will provide the keynote for Friday’s General Meeting. Page 12
New car and truck registrations for 2017 are following the projection for the year made seven years ago. Page 23
Mark Wong, the City’s Director of Information Technology will present details on the new online registration system at the Friday, General Meeting. See page 12
The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2017 Convention Edition
Mahalo! For more information, Contact Custom Publishing Design Group, Inc. Tel 860-513-1213
Fax 860-513-1216
sara@MyCompanyMagazine.com
LEARN WHY THIS HADA GRAPH IS CALLED
THE ROSETTA STONE page 17
Also in this Edition... NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS CONTINUE TO
Also see the HADA website at www.hawaiiautodealer.com
Jarrett Cutter, left, and Stan Masamitsu carried HADA’s message on the autonomous vehicle legislation to our Hawaii members of Congress. See pictorial, pages 8-11
The first seven months of 2017 have seen a 7.4% increase in registrations over the same period last year. Page 26
HADA associate members and officials from the City and County of Honolulu have formed a working group to address details of Electronic Vehicle Registration (EVR) for new and used vehicles. See page 34
Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601 Honolulu, HI 96813 ‡ )D[
2016-2017 HADA OFFICERS & DIRECTORS PRESIDENT
The ElectriďŹ cation of Transportation
Brian Kitagawa PRESIDENT-ELECT John Uekawa VICE PRESIDENT Eric Fukunaga SECRETARY Wayne De Luz TREASURER Kenny Ching NADA DIRECTOR Stan Masamitsu HAWAII DIRECTOR Jackie De Luz Watanabe MAUI DIRECTOR Jim Falk KAUAI DIRECTOR Mike Niethammer OAHU DIRECTOR Stan Masamitsu OAHU DIRECTOR Michael Stoebner OAHU DIRECTOR Heather Cutter OAHU DIRECTOR
The electrification factor in the auto industry has become a focus of much discussion. Governor David Ige issued an executive order (EO 07-17) November 22, 2017 involving HADA and the UH Engineering Department in the development of a driverless bus as a shuttle to the rental car facility at the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport. Driverless technology involves much electrification in transportation. Less than a month later, on December. 12, 2017, Hawaii’s four county mayors issued a joint proclamation, with the Hokule’a in the background, which set a goal for 100% renewable energy in ground transportation in Hawaii by 2045—making Hawaii as the first state in the nation with all its counties having set such a 100% goal. Auto industry projections, however, show that efficiencies produced by gasoline engines and gasoline-electric plug in hybrid vehicles will continue to play a role through 2045—while 100% renewable energy in vehicles will comprise a large portion of the energy powering vehicles on the roadways in 2045. There is no question, however, that the electrification factor, is proving to be a major influence affecting what we’ll see in the auto industry over the next three decades.
Brad Nicolai AT-LARGE DIRECTOR Marc Cutter
Brian Kitagawa HADA President 2017, 2018
AT-LARGE DIRECTOR Keoni Hansen IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT Bill van den Hurk
HADA STAFF EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Dave Rolf
HawaiiDealer is designed & published by Custom Publishing Design Group, Inc.Ž ‡ ZZZ 0\&RPSDQ\0DJD]LQH FRP 7R DGYHUWLVH LQ DQ XSFRPLQJ LVVXH FRQWDFW 6DUD 5XVVHOO H[W RU H PDLO VDUD#P\FRPSDQ\PDJD]LQH FRP
HawaiiDealer is published quarterly by the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601, Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808 593-0031 Fax: 808 593-0569 Email: drolf@hawaiidealer.com
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Mike Niethammer is Hawaii’s Dealer of the Year “We’re in a dynamic business environment right now,” said Mike Niethammer, Hawaii’s 2018 Dealer of the Year, who was raised in the heart of Silicon Valley and witnessed firsthand the beginnings of the digital economy which is now playing a major role in the selling of cars, along with a subsequent role in the development of driverless cars and electric vehicles. Mike was one in a family of four boys, growing up in Palo Alto, California. “It seems the boys thing runs in the Niethammer family,” said Mike, who’s grandfather, a German immigrant, also was one of four brothers. Mike and his wife Sherry have three boys, Charlie, 13, Will, 10, and Max, 9. Family, team sports, commercial real estate, the car business and community involvement have all been influences on this year’s Hawaii nominee for the national 2018 Time Quality Dealer of the Year Award (TMQDA). Born in Palo Alto in 1972, Mike went to high school there, earning all-league honors as a lineman—playing both ways—as an offensive tackle, nose guard, and defensive tackle. About his high school football career, Mike jokes, “I had my hand on the ground, so they say,” referring to lining up for each play in the lineman’s three-point stance. Mike said his friends pulled a joke on him his senior year. “They put my name in and I was selected as Homecoming King.” “I couldn’t ride the float,” he chuckles, “because I was playing the game.” 8
“I never put that (homecoming king thing) on my resume,” Mike says with a wry smile. Mike was also into wrestling in high school, in the heavyweight division. “That’s 191-pounds and up,” Mike smiles, adding that “you don’t have to sweat down to make weight.” His high school was right across from Stanford. “You could reach it with a nine iron.”
Palo Alto, with its Stanford University, Mike points out, was home to tech wizards Steve Jobs of Apple, Mark Zukerberg of Facebook, and Bill Hewlett of Hewlett-Packard, whose garage was considered the birthplace of Silicon Valley. Mike went to college at the University of Pacific at Stockton, California where he earned a B.A. degree in communications. “I was going to try to walk-on for tryouts for the college football team, but, (he said with a steelyeyed smirk and a smile), “I decided to concentrate on my studies… and I took up rugby.” He adds, “In rugby you get to carry the ball once in a while.” After graduation, Mike took a job leasing commercial real estate to growing firms in Silicon Valley. “It was booming at that time,” said Mike. It was during this time that he met Sherry King, through a mutual friend in San Francisco. Sherry, the daughter of longtime HADA member Charlie King, had been raised in Kauai. Sherry and Mike were married in 2002. “Charlie asked if I’d be interested in working in the auto industry, and since with commissioned commercial real estate sales you always have to start all over again at the first of each year, starting again at zero, and since I’d never lived more than 90 miles from my home, moving to Kauai was very appealing.”
Sales are sales, Mike said, but noted that with moving from selling commercial real estate to selling cars, there are a lot of differences. But he adapted right away. Mike said that when Charlie bought Infiniti of Honolulu, Mike and family moved to Oahu where he served as finance manager for the dealership, new and used car sales manager and various positions. He graduated from the NADA Academy in 2006, and he eventually purchased all the dealerships from Charlie—purchasing King Windward Nissan in 2010, Infiniti of Honolulu in 2013 and King Auto Center in Lihue in 2016.” “I think the most rewarding aspect of my career has been taking over a family business and watching it continue to survive and thrive. Many of our employees have been with us for a very long time, and we know their families as well. It is gratifying that they trust me and want to stay on as we build on our successes.” Mike is currently on the board of the Friends of Waikiki Aquarium. He has also participated in the Young Presidents’ Organization, a peer-to-peer networking group, and served as a youth
9
football coach. In addition, he has been an active contributor to many organizations, including Kauai Hospice, Assistance Dogs of Hawaii, Kapiolani Medical Center for Women & Children, Waikiki Aquarium, Make-A-Wish, Hawaii Children's Cancer Foundation, Mental Health America, Hawaii State Junior Golf Association and the Hawaii Food Bank, to name a few. “I cherish all of the charities we sponsor, but I have to say Assistance Dogs of Hawaii is probably the most meaningful,” Niethammer said. “They provide assistance dogs for various people and organizations throughout the state and help comfort sick children and grieving families in hospitals or children while testifying in court, as well as training service dogs, companion dogs and scent-detection dogs that can identify life-threatening infections in handicapped and elderly people.” As one of a select group of 47 dealer nominees from across the country, Mike will be honored at the National Automobile Dealers Association’s 2018 NADA Show in Las Vegas, Nevada, on March 23, 2018. The announcement of this year’s nominees was made by Meredith Long, senior vice president and general manager, News, Luxury & Style, TIME, and Tim Russi, president of auto finance for Ally Financial. “We salute this exceptional group of nominees for the 2018 TIME Dealer of the Year award,” Russi said. “These dealers are local pillars of strength, leadership and giving, and Ally is proud to celebrate their stories and recognize them for their commitment to ‘do it right’ in their communities.” In its seventh year as exclusive sponsor, Ally will recognize dealer nominees and their community efforts by contributing $1,000 to each nominee’s 501(c)3 charity of choice. Nominees will also be recognized on AllyDealerHeroes.com, which highlights the philanthropic contributions and achievements of TIME Dealer of the Year nominees. The TIME Dealer of the Year award is one of the automobile industry’s most prestigious and highly coveted
10
Mike, shown with the King Windward shield.
HADA selected Mike as a NextGen dealer in 2010 to accompany NADA director Joe Hanley to visit our congressional delegation in Washington D.C. In 2013 and 2014 Mike held HADA office as president of the association.
honors. Recipients are among the nation’s most successful auto dealers who also demonstrate a long-standing commitment to community service. The award is sponsored by TIME in association with Ally Financial, and in cooperation with NADA. A panel of faculty members from the Tauber Institute for Global Operations at the University of Michigan will select one finalist from each of the four NADA regions and one national Dealer of the Year.
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Joint Proclamation
Proclamation WHEREAS, the City and County of Honolulu has joined the 385-member Climate Mayors network and 196 countries to uphold the Paris Climate Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hold global warming to 1.5°C, and accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy, and benefit our people’s security, prosperity, and health; and WHEREAS, the Polynesian voyaging canoe Hōkūle'a recently circled the globe during its Mālama Honua Voyage and returned home with a call to action for Hawai’i and the world to become more self-reliant and resilient in the face of climate change; and WHEREAS, our islands were originally discovered and populated over a thousand years ago by brilliant and courageous Polynesian navigators who utilized the stars to travel thousands of miles harnessing the renewable power of the wind and the ocean; and WHEREAS, the City and County of Honolulu has already joined other counties to endorse the Aloha+ Challenge, a statewide commitment with six ambitious goals to be achieved by 2030 that advances climate resilience and sustainability; and WHEREAS, the Hawai’i Clean Energy Initiative is celebrating a decade of success as it set a bold yet achievable goal, brought parties together to transition away from fossil fuels, and ultimately resulted in a law requiring that 100 percent of Hawai‘i’s electricity be generated by renewable sources by 2045—the nation’s first such benchmark; and WHEREAS, Hawai’i has established itself as a testbed for clean energy innovation in emerging technologies, programs, and policies, which has had a positive impact on our economy and resulted in keeping $300 million in the islands every year instead of paying for foreign oil; and WHEREAS, greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation have been falling in Hawai’i due to the Hawai’i Clean Energy Initiative, while emissions from ground transportation in Hawai’i have actually increased in recent years; and WHEREAS, cars and trucks in Hawai’i consume over 500 million gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel annually, draining nearly $2 billion annually from our local economy and producing 4.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gas pollution that leads directly to increased climate change; and WHEREAS, Hawai‘i’s dependence on imported fossil fuel directly contributes to our high cost of living, and national studies have shown that operating and maintaining an electric vehicle costs about one-third less than operating a comparable fossil-fuel powered vehicle; and WHEREAS, our commitment to a 100 percent clean energy future is unwavering but the path each island may take to the destination will vary and involve our communities to find the right balance of transport modes, renewable fuels, and electrification to meet our local needs and support local jobs; and
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WHEREAS, energy storage technologies developed for hydrogen and electric vehicles can enable a more reliable and resilient renewable electricity grid and can also be employed to make use of variable renewable energy as it’s produced; and WHEREAS, our ground transportation system must transform towards biking, walking, transit, and renewable fuel and electric vehicles if we are to succeed in meeting our goals under Hawai‘i state law and the Paris Climate Agreement, while also protecting our local economy; and WHEREAS, major national governments, cities and companies across the globe have now set targets to phase out fossil fuel-burning cars and trucks and make the switch to renewable fuels, hydrogen, and electric vehicles that result in cleaner air, less noise, energy security, and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; NOW, THEREFORE, I, KIRK CALDWELL, Mayor of the City and County of Honolulu, do commit to the next phase of Hawai’i’s clean energy future. In joining the mayors of all four Hawai’i counties, we pledge to transform Hawai’i’s ground transportation to 100 percent renewable fuel sources by ensuring that all public and private ground transportation is fueled by renewable energy by 2045. In addition, the City and County of Honolulu pledges to lead by example and establish a 100 percent renewable-powered City fleet by 2035. Done this 12th day of December, 2017, in Honolulu, Hawai‘i. KIRK CALDWELL
HADA Statement “The Hawai’i Automobile Dealers Association anticipates that the uptake of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles will accelerate as more of these renewable energy vehicles become available, and as China, the world’s largest motor vehicle market moves in the same direction.” “Hawaii’s new car dealers have already worked to bring electric vehicles into the islands, installed charging infrastructure, and helped to make Hawai’i second only to California in per-capita electric vehicle ownership—we look forward to working with the mayors to make sure that both public and private infrastructure is in place to allow every household to affordably own and operate a renewable vehicle.” “HADA dealers point out, however, that they can sell only what the customers are willing to buy and the manufacturers are willing to make, and EVs will have to make economic sense for broad-based customer uptake to take place.”
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The “Rosetta Stone� for New Technology Adoption Rates
300 Highrise Buildings
EV/AV Adoption Bridge Education/University Engineers
70,000
60,000
5G LTE
Transportation + Construction
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 All Vehicles
E Vehicles
HAVS Highly Autonomous Vehicles
New Car & Truck Projections Thru 2045
Tourism/Conventions + Military
Source: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. Note: Hydrogen fuel cell electric Vehicles are included in EV numbers.
Since transitioning to the new technology (renewable fuel technology and driverless car technology) will be hard, we thought it might as well be joyful. That thought is included on the Rosetta Stone graphic which is designed to help unlock some of the unknowns about anticipated adoption rates of the new technologies.
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IN
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FOR PARTNERING WITH MANHEIM HAWAII IN 2017
We look forward to working with you again in 2018!
Aloha KIA provides (use for a year) a new 2017 Forte to the new Hawaii State Teacher of the Year
A
loha KIA owner Bill van den Hurk, who stars along with his dog Annie in his dealership’s many television commercials, awarded use for a year of a new 2017 KIA Forte sedan to the newly-named 2017-2018 Hawaii State Teacher of the Year, Vanessa Ching, at ceremonies held at Washington Place, 3 p.m. Friday, October 27, 2017 across from the State Capitol in Honolulu.
Aloha KIA owner Bill van den Hurk presents a ceremonial key and use for a year of a new 2017 KIA Forte to Vanessa Ching, a teacher who holds multiple positions at Ewa Makai Middle School in the Leeward District, shown here with her husband Joshua Ching, son Luke, 3, and daughter Kalea, 1.
The Hawaii State Teacher of the Year is selected from 8 finalists—including the 7 District Teachers of the Year and the Charter School Teacher of the Year—to serve for a year and represent Hawaii in the competition for the National Teacher of the Year. Use of the new car, awarded this year compliments of Aloha KIA, is the 58th such new vehicle provided through the coordination of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association to support the Hawaii State Department of Education’s annual Teacher of the Year program.
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MAHALO SPONSORS PLATINUM SPONSORS Ally Financial Cox Automotive Group
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23
2017 HADA Convention The Fairmont Kea Lani Maui Blues Brothers—Pete Luke and Byron Hansen (r)— hosted the golf portion of the awards banquet, (Bob Gardiner, not shown, hosted the tennis portion of the program)
The golf video produced by Maui intermediate school students from Maui Waena Intermediate, was a big hit.
Featured speakers included Eric Chester, Kevin Baumgart from Hireology, and Mark Wong, C&C of Honolulu’s Director of Information Technology
Willie K wowed the packed banquet room with his virtuoso performance on the ukulele and his extraordinary range as an entertainer.
Mark Wong swears in the 2017–2018 HADA officers and directors
HADA members much appreciate Bill van den Hurk for chairing this year’s HADA convention. 24
Together, we go farther and arrive sooner Drive Electric Hawaii is a coalition to promote electric vehicles, cut fossil-fuel transportation and add more renewable energy by collaborating on education, promotion, advocacy and infrastructure to make electric mobility easier for all. Why? Drive Electric Hawaii partners recognize EV benefits for drivers and the state – economically and environmentally. And we’re about more than just passenger vehicles. Electric trucks, buses, harbor and airport equipment all offer ways to meet our goal to move people and goods cleanly and efficiently. Who? Founding members with the Hawaiian Electric Companies are: Blue Planet Foundation; Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative; Rocky Mountain Institute; Hawai‘i State Energy Office, Department of Transportation, and Division of Consumer Advocacy; and Ulupono Initiative. Blue Planet Foundation’s Second Annual Electric Island Drive brought a caravan of over 100 electric vehicles through Waikiki to an EV Fair at Kapiolani Community College
Learn more at driveelectrichi.com
@driveelectrichi
www.hawaiianelectric.com/GoEV
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Covering Data thru September 2017
Volume 16, Number 5
™
Hawaii Auto Outlook
Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST
2018 Should be Another Strong Year for New Vehicle Market
Key factors providing a boost to new vehicle sales
Key factors holding back new vehicle sales
Incentive to upgrade. Advanced features that were once restricted to luxury vehicles are now commonplace on mainstream products (i.e, mitigation braking, lane alert, smart cruise control, blind spot monitoring, rear-view cameras, etc.). These new technologies are providing a strong motivation for consumers to enter the new vehicle market.
Pent up demand is easing. Following seven years of increasing sales, the market has fully recovered from the low point in 2010, and as a result, pent up demand is easing. As pointed out on the left, there are a multitude of reasons for automotive consumers to be motivated to replace their current vehicles, but the frequency of purchases that occur out of necessity (i.e., current cars are wearing out) is lessening.
New products. In the past, auto companies have not been responsive to shifting consumer tastes. But that’s not the case today. As demand for SUVs has grown, manufacturers have introduced desirable new products in every conceivable size and configuration. And if fuel prices were to unexpectedly surge, there are a slew of plug in and all-electric vehicles scheduled to be introduced over the next few years.
Rising interest rates. After several years of hovering near zero, interest rates are on the rise. It’s not likely to be an abrupt, upward march, but it’s inevitable that they will increase. Higher interest rates lead to increasing monthly finance and lease payments, which put a drag on new vehicle sales.
Economic fundamentals are sound. Unemployment rates are very low, incomes are moving higher, household net worth is at an all-time high, GDP growth is solid, and consumer confidence is strong. It would be unprecedented for new vehicle sales to decline sharply in an environment with such strong core economic fundamentals.
Insufficient savings. Leading into the financial crisis of 2008, households had amassed record debt. After several years of deleveraging, the debt burden has eased significantly. However, most households still have insufficient savings for retirement. As a result, consumers need to build savings, which will put a crimp on retail spending.
Annual Trend in State Market
Market Summary
New light vehicle registrations
70,000 60,000 50,000
54039
60750
48705
40,000 30,000
57094 58485
42463 32878 32649
35576
20,000 10,000 0
26
TOTAL
YTD '16 YTD '17 % Chg. thru Sept. thru Sept. '16 to '17 43,580 45,725 4.9%
Mkt. Share 2017
Car Light Truck
17,135 26,445
16,603 29,122
-3.1% 10.1%
36.3% 63.7%
Domestic European Japanese Korean
9,057 4,119 27,496 2,908
9,787 4,426 28,600 2,912
8.1% 7.5% 4.0% 0.1%
21.4% 9.7% 62.5% 6.4%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Forecast Historical Data Source: IHS Markit.
Source: IHS Markit.
The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2009 thru 2016 and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2017.
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT and Alfa), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases.
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28
Hawaii Auto Outlook
Page 2
FIVE YEAR TREND IN SEGMENT MARKET SHARES
Non Luxury SUV Segment Is Leader In Hawaii Market Segment Market Shares in Hawaii YTD 2012 thru September Luxury & Sports Cars, 9%
Luxury & Sports Cars, 6% Luxury SUVs, 7%
Non Luxury SUVs, 21%
Luxury SUVs, 5% Non Luxury Mid Size & Large Cars, 11%
Segment Market Shares in Hawaii YTD 2017 thru September
Non Luxury Mid Size & Large Cars, 7%
Non Luxury SUV Market Share in ‘12:
21%
Non Luxury SUVs, 31%
Non Luxury SUV Market Share in ‘17:
31% Small Cars, 23%
Pickups and Vans, 22% Small Cars, 32%
Pickups and Vans, 26% Source: IHS Markit.
Source: IHS Markit.
The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first nine months of 2012 and 2017. Non Luxury SUV market share increased sharply while Small Cars had the largest decline.
MARKET TRACKER: STATE MARKET VERSUS U.S.
State Market Is Up; U.S. Down Slightly State Market
U.S. Market
Percent change in registrations YTD '17 thru Sept. vs. YTD '16
4.9%
-1.4%
Passenger car market share YTD '17 thru Sept.
36.3%
36.0%
Domestic brand market share YTD '17 thru Sept.
21.4%
41.2%
Top 10 brands and market share YTD '17 thru Sept. First Second Third Fourth Fifth Sixth Seventh Eighth Ninth Tenth Source: IHS Markit
Toyota Honda Nissan Ford Chevrolet Kia Subaru Mazda BMW Jeep
26.4% 15.6% 10.0% 7.2% 5.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
Toyota Ford Chevrolet Honda Nissan Jeep Subaru Hyundai Kia GMC
Hawaii Auto Outlook Covering data thru September 2017 Published for: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601 Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808-593-0031
13.6% 12.0% 11.4% 10.3% 7.1% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3%
Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to Hawaii Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: IHS Markit.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Hawaii Auto Outlook. Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., November 2017
29
Hawaii Auto Outlook
Page 3
MODEL RANKINGS
Silverado Moves Up in State Market During Past Three Years The graph below shows the change in rankings during the first nine months of 2014 versus 2017 for the top 15 selling models in Hawaii. Models are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on the change in rankings. Change in Rankings for Top 15 Selling Models - YTD 2017 thru September vs. YTD 2014 Models on this side of the graph moved down in the rankings
Models on this side of the graph moved up in the rankings Chevrolet Silverado Nissan Rogue Toyota 4 Runner Ford F Series Honda Fit Kia Soul Toyota RAV4 Honda CR-V Honda Civic Toyota Tacoma
Chevrolet Silverado moved up 12 positions. It was the 23rd best seller in 2014, and moved up to 11th in 2017.
Toyota Sienna Nissan Frontier /Xe Toyota Camry Toyota Corolla Honda Accord -15 Source: IHS Markit.
-10
-5 0 5 Change in ranking during first nine months of 2017 versus 2014
10
15
COUNTY SCOREBOARD
Oahu New Vehicle Registrations Increase 6.3% The table on the right provides a summary of each of Hawaii’s four retail light vehicle markets. The table is divided into four sections. Market Summary shows total new retail light vehicle registrations during the first nine months of 2016 and 2017 and the percent change. The second and third sections show Light Truck and Detroit Three market share. The fourth section shows market share figures for the top 10 selling light vehicle brands in the state. The top rated county in each category is shaded. Kauai had the largest percentage increase, up 15.7%. Detroit Three market share was highest in Kauai (25.9%) and lowest on the Big Island (19.4%).
30
New Vehicle Markets Summary Hawaii Kauai Market Summary YTD '16 thru September 5275 1845 YTD '17 thru September 5396 2134 Percent change 2.3% 15.7% Light Truck Market Share YTD '16 thru September 66.9% 74.1% YTD '17 thru September 69.6% 72.1% Change (share points) 2.7 -2.0 Detroit Three Market Share YTD '16 thru September 19.3% 28.5% YTD '17 thru September 19.4% 25.9% Change (share points) 0.1 -2.6 Market Share for Top 10 Selling Brands in State - YTD '17 thru September Toyota 29.1% 30.7% Honda 18.1% 15.7% Nissan 12.5% 10.8% Ford 7.2% 11.3% Chevrolet 3.5% 6.0% Kia 6.8% 6.8% Subaru 5.9% 3.6% Mazda 1.2% 1.5% BMW 1.9% 0.4% Hyundai 2.1% 2.4%
Maui
Oahu
5664 5472 -3.4%
30796 32723 6.3%
66.6% 68.8% 2.2
57.7% 61.3% 3.6
23.6% 25.0% 1.4
20.1% 20.8% 0.8
24.2% 19.5% 10.8% 8.3% 6.4% 4.2% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0% 1.8%
26.1% 14.6% 9.4% 6.7% 6.1% 3.0% 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8%
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Hawaii Auto Outlook
Page 4
Hawaii New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Third Quarter Registrations 3Q '16 3Q '17 15,207 15,969
TOTAL Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet C/D/J/R Total Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Other Porsche Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo
184 163 414 78 43 742 797 80 199 325 193 16 1,187 179 2,123 434 77 24 594 51 435 10 404 360 119 16 1,414 30 69 486 76 4,450 202 30
% change 5.0
208 162 457 49 38 1,083 808 50 174 417 167 27 1,139 215 2,423 401 97 40 565 67 439 11 445 375 152 28 1,537 65 63 506 91 4,224 231 23
YTD thru September
Market Share (%) 3Q '16 3Q '17
13.0 -0.6 10.4 -37.2 -11.6 46.0 1.4 -37.5 -12.6 28.3 -13.5 68.8 -4.0 20.1 14.1 -7.6 26.0 66.7 -4.9 31.4 0.9 10.0 10.1 4.2 27.7 75.0 8.7 116.7 -8.7 4.1 19.7 -5.1 14.4 -23.3
1.2 1.1 2.7 0.5 0.3 4.9 5.2 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.1 7.8 1.2 14.0 2.9 0.5 0.2 3.9 0.3 2.9 0.1 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 9.3 0.2 0.5 3.2 0.5 29.3 1.3 0.2
1.3 1.0 2.9 0.3 0.2 6.8 5.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 7.1 1.3 15.2 2.5 0.6 0.3 3.5 0.4 2.7 0.1 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.2 9.6 0.4 0.4 3.2 0.6 26.5 1.4 0.1
Change 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.1 1.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -2.8 0.1 -0.1
Registrations YTD '16 YTD '17 43,580 45,725 554 438 1,118 166 99 2,104 2,498 193 723 1,018 564 71 3,489 472 6,201 1,174 204 46 1,734 143 1,256 33 1,167 1,010 363 78 4,325 78 180 1,307 190 12,401 570 111
% change 4.9
651 439 1,204 213 128 2,677 2,554 205 628 1,166 555 85 3,281 607 7,143 1,167 294 108 1,721 157 1,164 24 1,254 1,092 328 97 4,574 149 189 1,347 291 12,075 633 79
17.5 0.2 7.7 28.3 29.3 27.2 2.2 6.2 -13.1 14.5 -1.6 19.7 -6.0 28.6 15.2 -0.6 44.1 134.8 -0.7 9.8 -7.3 -27.3 7.5 8.1 -9.6 24.4 5.8 91.0 5.0 3.1 53.2 -2.6 11.1 -28.8
Market Share (%) YTD '16 YTD '17 Change 1.3 1.0 2.6 0.4 0.2 4.8 5.7 0.4 1.7 2.3 1.3 0.2 8.0 1.1 14.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 4.0 0.3 2.9 0.1 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 9.9 0.2 0.4 3.0 0.4 28.5 1.3 0.3
1.4 0.1 1.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.9 1.1 5.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 -0.3 2.6 0.3 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 -0.8 1.3 0.2 15.6 1.4 2.6 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.8 -0.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 -0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.4 0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 -0.1 0.6 0.2 26.4 -2.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.1 Source: IHS Markit.
MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Share Moves Higher in 3Q 2017 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) 8.0%
Trendline
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%
Hybrid/electric vehicle market share in Q3 ‘17:
3.0% 2.0%
6.1%
1.0% 0.0% Q4 '13
Q1 '14
Q2 '14
Q3 '14
Q4 '14
Q1 '15
Q2 '15
Q3 '15
Q4 '15
Q1 '16
Q2 '16
Q3 '16
Q4 '16
Q1 '17
Q2 '17
Q3 '17
State Hybrid and Electric Vehicle New Retail Registrations 2011 thru 2016, 2017 YTD thru September Year Hybrids Electrics Total 2011 1299 338 1637 2012 2403 340 2743 2013 2551 774 3325 2014 2782 870 3652 2015 2171 748 2919 2016 1952 913 2865 YTD '17 (Sept.) 1653 1104 2757
The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the state. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. IHS Markit.
33
December 14, 2017: Motor Trend Auto Show’s vice president Steve Freeman, shown at head of the board room table, briefs the HADA board of directors on the details of the upcoming 2018 First Hawaiian International Auto Show, which will be held April 13-15, 2018 at the Hawaii Convention Center, and will be the 40th anniversary of the show.
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