Covering Data thru December 2021
Volume 21, Number 1
Hawaii Auto Outlook
TM
Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
FORECAST
State Market Poised for Recovery When Supply Issues Abate The Hawaii new vehicle market has been on a roller coaster ride over the past 24 months. Since the beginning of 2020, there have been sharp cyclical swings in sales that would typically take more than five years to occur. Roller coasters can get your head spinning, and in a similar manner, the peaks and troughs in new vehicle sales over the past two years have been disorienting. The summary below presents the main highlights, and provides a perspective on what lies ahead. How the market performed in 2021 Focusing on the year as a whole, the market recovered from the pandemic-lows of 2020. New retail light vehicle registrations in the state last year were up 25.6% from 2020, well above the 5.1% increase in the U.S. It was definitely not a smooth ride, however. The market was up 33% from January through September of 2021 versus year earlier, but then inventory shortages impacted sales in the final three months. Results in Fourth Quarter of 2021 New retail light registrations in the state during the Fourth Quarter of 2021 were 11,322 units, up just 2.4% versus year earlier. Reporting of registrations lags the timing of vehicle sales, so the weakness that took hold at the end of 2021 will likely be reflected in 1Q 22 registration data.
What’s ahead in 2022 As mentioned below, there are positives and negatives that will impact demand for new vehicles, but sales levels will be determined almost entirely by supply. Based on projections for vehicle production, the consensus outlook for U.S. sales in 2022 is about 15.5 million units. According to Auto Outlook’s analysis of historical trends, this would be equivalent to 57,400 new retail registrations in the state, down 0.8% from 2021. This is the baseline forecast shown below. Alternate upside and downside scenarios are also displayed. Demand may soften in 2022 The Omicron variant has raised concerns about how quickly the economy can recover from the pandemic and inflation is now a primary concern. Commodity cost pressures and wage-price inflation are both significant. And the prospects of built-in consumer expectations for rising prices could make inflation a longer term issue. Increasing interest rates is the primary tool used to combat inflation and this will lead to some easing in the demand for new vehicles. But even with a moderate slide in consumer affordability, demand will almost certainly exceed supply during 2022. Easing of demand might reign in some of the upward pressure on vehicle prices, but it’s not likely to have an impact on sales levels.
New light vehicle registrations
Annual Trend in State Market
62716
62457
59480
57851
57323
57400
46064
25,000 0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Forecast for Hawaii New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations in 2022 Baseline scenario: 57,400 down 0.8% vs. ‘21 Alternative upside: 59,900 up 3.5% vs. ‘21 Alternative downside: 54,300 down 6.1% vs. ‘21
Market Summary 2020
2021
% C hg .
M kt . S har e
A n n ual
A n n ual
' 20 t o ' 21
2021
TOTAL
46,064
57,851
25.6%
Car
12,508
14,236
13.8%
24.6%
Light Truck
33,556
43,615
30.0%
75.4%
Domestic
11,508
13,847
20.3%
23.9%
European
4,976
5,694
14.4%
9.8%
Japanese
26,387
33,574
27.2%
58.0%
3,193
4,736
48.3%
8.2%
75,000 50,000
Reasons for optimism As shown on page 2, the impact of the pandemic and resulting supply issues have resulted in the postponement of a significant number of vehicle purchases. Registrations between 2020 and 2022 will be an estimated 15,085 units lower than they would have been in normal circumstances. It’s a big number that is equal to nearly 26% of sales in an average year. Nearly all of those postponed purchases will occur at some point during the next several years, giving the state market a big boost. As we have learned during past two years, uncertainty abounds and it’s not likely to be a smooth ride, but the directional trend for the market is decidedly positive.
2021
2022 Forecast The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2016 thru 2021 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2022. Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Korean
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), and Tesla. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
x
Page 2
Hawaii Auto Outlook
Hawaii New Vehicle Market Dashboard
PENT UP DEMAND
Estimated
75000
New retail light vehicle registrations in 2020, 2021, and 2022 forecast versus projections before onset of pandemic
58600 57851
58000
59800 57400
46064
50000
25000
0
2020
2021
Projections before pandemic
2022
15,085 new vehicle purchases will be postponed between 2020 & 2022 representing
Actual for 2020 and 2021; 2022 forecast
26% of sales in an average year
Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Projections: Auto Outlook.
STATE MARKET VS. U.S.
% Change In New Retail Market for all of 2021 vs. 2020
Hawaii
U.S.
UP 25.6%
UP 5.1%
Source for state registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. U.S. figures estimated by Auto Outlook.
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
New retail light vehicle registrations in the state market increased 25.6% during all of last year, higher than the 5.1% increase in the Nation. The big increase in the state last year was primarily due to significant impact the pandemic had on Hawaii new vehicle sales in 2020.
Hawaii Auto Outlook Published for: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601, Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808-593-0031 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390, Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 610-640-1233 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Information quoted must be attributed to Hawaii Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: AutoCount Data from Experian.” Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., February 2022
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 3
Hawaii New Vehicle Market Dashboard TRACKING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Monthly Unemployment Rates in Hawaii
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
NOVEMBER 2021 SA
SU
10.3%
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
DECEMBER 2021 SA
SU
6.0%
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
10 year high - 101.4 (Mar. 2018)
Key Values During Past 10 Years
Most recent - 70.6 (Dec. 2021)
12 month high - 88.2 (Apr. 2021)
10 year low - 67.4 (Nov. 2021)
Dec-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-20
$33.01
SA
5.7%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S.)
Mar-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Mar-20
Average Hourly Earnings for All Workers in State - Nov. 2021
Percent Change in U.S. Gross Domestic Product Change vs. previous quarter
Up $0.37 vs. year earlier
Chg. vs. preceding quarter
DECEMBER 2020 SU
Dec-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0
Dec-14
x 100000
Total Employment in Hawaii
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0
'17
'18
'19
The state unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in December of last year, a considerable improvement from the 10.3% rate a year earlier. Total employment in December was 610,000, up from the lows in May of 2020, but still 49,000 below prepandemic levels. Average hourly earnings were up versus year earlier. Consumer sentiment has softened over the past few months.
'20
'21
Quarters shown for each year
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Michigan, and U.S. Bureau of Econ. Analysis.
TOP TEN RANKINGS IN STATE MARKET Market Share for Top Ten Selling Brands in Hawaii 2021 Annual
Market Share for Top Ten Selling Models in Hawaii 2021 Annual
Toyota Tacoma 7.4%
Toyota 25.4% Honda 13.9% Ford 6.1%
Toyota Corolla 3.1% Honda CR-V 3.0%
Tesla 5.5%
Tesla Model Y 3.0%
Subaru 4.8%
Honda Civic 3.0%
Kia 4.6%
Honda HR-V 2.4%
Chevrolet 4.2%
Tesla Model 3 2.4%
Jeep 3.7% Hyundai 3.3%
Toyota 4Runner 4.9% Toyota RAV4 3.7%
Nissan 7.4%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Toyota Camry 2.0%
Page 4
Hawaii Auto Outlook
HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Estimated Electric Vehicle Share Reached 8.6% in 4Q of 2021 Estimated Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) 10.0% 8.0%
Annual Share by Engine Type (2020 and 2021)
6.0% 4.0%
2020
2021
Electric
4.9%
7.3%
Hybrid
3.3%
5.5%
Plug In Hybrid
0.9%
1.6%
2.0% 0.0%
Q1 '19
Q2 '19
Q3 '19
Q4 '19
Q1 '20
Electric
Q2 '20
Q3 '20
Hybrid
Q4 '20
Q1 '21
Q2 '21
Q3 '21
Q4 '21
Plug In Hybrid
The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle market share. Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped with multiple engine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The estimates are based on model registrations compiled by Experian, and engine installation rates collected from other sources. MARKET SEGMENTS
“True Truck” Share of Hawaii Market is Below 50% In 2021, light trucks accounted for 75.4% of the state market, up about 23 share points during the past ten years. But due to the sometimes fuzzy standards the industry has used to classify vehicles, these frequently cited light truck market share figures can send a misleading signal regarding an apparent shift to bigger vehicles. For example, many sub compact and compact SUVs (i.e., Buick Encore and Honda CR-V) are essentially passenger cars with a hatchback, a higher center of gravity, and more ground clearance. But these
vehicles are traditionally classified as light trucks and are included in the same broad segment category as full size pickups and large SUVs. In many ways, small CUVs are more similar to compact cars than to 6,000 pound trucks. The analysis below presents an alternative picture of truck market share in the Hawaii market by re-mapping these traditional breakdowns. The two orange shaded circles comprise what we are calling “true trucks” - mid size and full size SUVs, truck-based small SUVs, pickups, and vans. The two
Segment Market Shares - 2016
By removing small CUVs from light trucks, true truck market share in the state during 2021 was well below half of the market 43.4%. It’s increasing, up by 2.7 points from 2016, but the combined total for passenger cars and small CUVs accounts for the dominant share of the market.
Segment Market Shares - 2021 Pickups and Vans 24.1%
Pickups and Vans 25.8%
blue circles consist of passenger cars and small crossover SUVs.
Passenger Cars 24.6%
Passenger Cars 37.3%
Mid Size/Large SUVs & Small truck-based SUVs 14.9%
Mid Size/Large SUVs & Small truck-based SUVs 19.3% Small CUVs 22.1%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
True Truck share of the market was less than 45% last year.
Small CUVs 32.0%
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 5
BRAND SCOREBOARD
16 Brands Had Increases of Greater than 20% in 2021 The graph below provides a comparative evaluation of brand sales performance in the state market. It shows the annual percent change in registrations last year for each brand, organized by category (i.e., Domestic, European, and Asian). Brand results in 2021 were almost entirely a function of product availability, as opposed to the typical determinants of marketing and dealership sales performance.
Percent Change in Hawaii New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations 2021 vs. 2020
Tesla
82.0%
Lincoln
67.4%
Jeep
31.5%
Ram
28.2%
Chrysler GMC
Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: Tesla and Lincoln
14.1%
Buick
7.8%
Dodge
7.7%
Cadillac
1.6%
Ford
0.6%
Chevrolet
-1.4%
BMW
27.1%
Porsche
26.6%
Volkswagen
24.1%
MINI
European Brands
14.9%
Volvo
Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: BMW and Porsche
8.0%
Audi
6.0%
Land Rover
5.6%
Mercedes Jaguar
Domestic
18.7%
-0.9% -32.1%
Genesis Kia
54.7%
Hyundai
34.0%
Honda
31.3%
Lexus
31.2%
Subaru
31.0%
Toyota
28.7%
Mitsubishi
28.4%
Nissan Acura
-50.0%
Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: Genesis and Kia
21.1% 15.8%
Mazda Infiniti
Asian Brands
8.2% -12.4% -25.0%
0.0%
25.0%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Page 6
Hawaii Auto Outlook
BRAND SEGMENT MARKET SHARES
Top Selling Brands in 7 Primary Segments Non Luxury Cars
The seven graphs on this page show brand market share in seven key segments for all of 2021 in both the Hawaii and U.S. markets. State percent share is depicted by the red bars, U.S. share is light gray. Top ten brands in each segment are ranked from top to bottom based on Hawaii market share.
Toyota Honda Nissan
Segments were defined based on model classifications instead of overall brand positioning. For instance, Chevrolet appears on the Luxury and Sports cars graph because of the Corvette. Small SUVs consists of both Sub Compact and Compact Models. Email Auto Outlook (autooutlook@icloud.com) for market share information for Vans and Mini Vans.
Hyundai Kia
Mazda Subaru
Legend for all graphs Brand share of segment in Hawaii during 2021
Volkswagen
Brand share of segment in U.S. market during 2021
Luxury and Sports Cars
MINI 0.0
Pickups Toyota
Honda
BMW
Ford
Toyota
Tesla is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Porsche Chevrolet
GMC Honda
Infiniti
Hyundai 0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Kia
Toyota is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Jeep
Genesis
Mazda Ford
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
0.0
Tesla
Lexus
Honda
Lexus
BMW
Ford
BMW
Mercedes
Kia
Mercedes
Acura
Subaru Jeep
Tesla is top seller. Lexus state share is higher than U.S.
Audi Volvo Land Rover
Volvo Cadillac
Porsche
Porsche
Nissan
Infiniti
Tesla
20.0
40.0
60.0
30.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Lexus is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Land Rover
Volkswagen
0.0
20.0
Audi
Acura
Chevrolet
10.0
Mid and Full Size Luxury SUVs
Small Luxury SUVs
Toyota
Toyota is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Honda is top seller. Subaru state share is higher than U.S.
Hyundai
Volkswagen
Mid and Full Size Non Luxury SUVs
Hyundai
40.0
Jeep
Ram
Audi
30.0
Nissan
Nissan
Acura
20.0
Subaru
Chevrolet
Mercedes
10.0
Small Non Luxury SUVs
Tesla
Lexus
Toyota is top seller. Honda state share is higher than U.S.
Dodge
40.0
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 7
LONG TERM TRENDS
New Vehicle Registrations in 2021 About the Same as In 2019 The graph below provides a long term perspective of trends in the Hawaii market. It shows new retail light vehicle registrations divided among four primary segments: Small SUVs, Pickups and Vans, Mid Size and Large SUVs, and Passenger Cars.
State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - 2007 thru 2021 80000
New vehicle registrations
Registrations declined to just above 46,000 units in 2020, but remained well above the low of 33,509 in 2009
60000
40000
20000 Passenger car market share declined from 44% in 2007 to 25% in 2021
0
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
Years Cars
Mid Size and Large SUVs
Pickups & Vans
'21
State market declined sharply in 2020 as the pandemic impacted new vehicle sales. Registrations were up in 2021. A small decline is predicted this year, with a 10% or higher increase possible in 2023.
Small SUVs
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. COUNTY SCOREBOARD
All Island Markets Posted Big Gains Last year The table on the right provides a summary of each of Hawaii’s four retail light vehicle markets. The table is divided into four sections. Market Summary shows total new retail light vehicle registrations during 2020 and 2021 and the percent change. The second and third sections show Light Truck and Domestic Brand market share. The fourth section shows market share figures for the top 10 selling light vehicle brands in the state. The top rated county in each category is shaded. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
New Vehicle Markets Summary Hawaii Kauai Market Summary 2020 Annual 6031 2021 Annual 7950 Percent change 31.8% Light Truck Market Share 2020 Annual 79.5% 2021 Annual 80.8% Change (share points) 1.3 Domestic Brand Market Share 2020 Annual 24.4% 2021 Annual 24.2% Change (share points) -0.2 Market Share for Top 10 Selling Brands in State - 2021 Annual Toyota 30.0% Honda 11.5% Nissan 8.1% Ford 6.7% Tesla 2.7% Subaru 8.7% Kia 8.0% Chevrolet 6.0% Jeep 3.8% Hyundai 3.1% 2.3%
Maui
Oahu
2230 3030 35.9%
4952 7339 48.2%
32848 39532 20.3%
85.1% 87.6% 2.5
80.9% 81.3% 0.4
69.6% 72.3% 2.7
31.0% 27.4% -3.6
27.0% 23.8% -3.2
24.4% 23.6% -0.7
30.5% 12.1% 7.8% 11.0% 1.8% 8.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.4% 2.8%
20.3% 16.4% 6.5% 7.1% 4.2% 7.4% 5.1% 3.6% 4.6% 3.3%
25.1% 14.1% 7.5% 5.4% 6.6% 3.2% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4%
Page 8
Hawaii Auto Outlook
B r a n d R e gi str a ti o n s R e po r t H a w a i i Ne w R e ta i l C a r a n d L i gh t T r u ck R e gi str a ti o n s Fourth Quarter Registrations 4Q '20 TOTAL
Annual Totals Market Share (%)
4Q '21 % change
4Q '20
4Q '21
11,058
11,322
2.4
Cars
2,803
2,664
-5.0
25.3
23.5
Light Trucks
8,255
8,658
4.9
74.7
76.5
Domestic Brands
2,880
2,748
-4.6
26.0
European Brands
1,278
1,137
-11.0
11.6
Japanese Brands
6,150
6,379
3.7
Korean Brands
750
1,058
Acura
113
Registrations Change
2020
Market Share (%)
2021 % change
2020
2021
Change
46,064
57,851
25.6
-1.8
12,508
14,236
13.8
27.2
24.6
-2.6
1.8
33,556
43,615
30.0
72.8
75.4
2.6
24.3
-1.7
11,508
13,847
20.3
25.0
23.9
-1.1
10.0
-1.6
4,976
5,694
14.4
10.8
9.8
-1.0
55.6
56.3
0.7
26,387
33,574
27.2
57.3
58.0
0.7
41.1
6.8
9.3
2.5
3,193
4,736
48.3
6.9
8.2
1.3
126
11.5
1.0
1.1
0.1
569
659
15.8
1.2
1.1
-0.1
Audi
88
80
-9.1
0.8
0.7
-0.1
464
492
6.0
1.0
0.9
-0.1
BMW
427
389
-8.9
3.9
3.4
-0.5
1,307
1,661
27.1
2.8
2.9
0.1
Buick
26
14
-46.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
102
110
7.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
Cadillac
40
18
-55.0
0.4
0.2
-0.2
122
124
1.6
0.3
0.2
-0.1 -1.1
Chevrolet
645
429
-33.5
5.8
3.8
-2.0
2,448
2,414
-1.4
5.3
4.2
CDJR Total
737
789
7.1
6.7
7.0
0.3
3,023
3,815
26.2
6.6
6.6
0.0
Chrysler
32
17
-46.9
0.3
0.2
-0.1
166
197
18.7
0.4
0.3
-0.1
Dodge
104
81
-22.1
0.9
0.7
-0.2
480
517
7.7
1.0
0.9
-0.1
Jeep
411
479
16.5
3.7
4.2
0.5
1,639
2,155
31.5
3.6
3.7
0.1
Ram
190
212
11.6
1.7
1.9
0.2
738
946
28.2
1.6
1.6
0.0
FIAT
6
0
-100.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
24
3
-87.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Ford
835
637
-23.7
7.6
5.6
-2.0
3,493
3,514
0.6
7.6
6.1
-1.5
5
51
920.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
39
157
302.6
0.1
0.3
0.2
121
93
-23.1
1.1
0.8
-0.3
512
584
14.1
1.1
1.0
-0.1
1,459
1,522
4.3
13.2
13.4
0.2
6,123
8,040
31.3
13.3
13.9
0.6
331
405
22.4
3.0
3.6
0.6
1,445
1,936
34.0
3.1
3.3
0.2
35
26
-25.7
0.3
0.2
-0.1
185
162
-12.4
0.4
0.3
-0.1
Genesis GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar
8
3
-62.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
53
36
-32.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
414
602
45.4
3.7
5.3
1.6
1,709
2,643
54.7
3.7
4.6
0.9
41
34
-17.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
195
206
5.6
0.4
0.4
0.0
Lexus
353
277
-21.5
3.2
2.4
-0.8
1,313
1,723
31.2
2.9
3.0
0.1
Lincoln
16
14
-12.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
46
77
67.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
3
-25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
23
76.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mazda
243
149
-38.7
2.2
1.3
-0.9
1,034
1,119
8.2
2.2
1.9
-0.3
Mercedes
253
189
-25.3
2.3
1.7
-0.6
1,124
1,114
-0.9
2.4
1.9
-0.5
MINI
81
64
-21.0
0.7
0.6
-0.1
309
355
14.9
0.7
0.6
-0.1
Mitsubishi
14
11
-21.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
74
95
28.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
822
778
-5.4
7.4
6.9
-0.5
3,554
4,304
21.1
7.7
7.4
-0.3
8
6
-25.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
36
46
27.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
Kia Land Rover
Maserati
Nissan Other Porsche
68
61
-10.3
0.6
0.5
-0.1
244
309
26.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
Subaru
526
540
2.7
4.8
4.8
0.0
2,099
2,750
31.0
4.6
4.8
0.2
Tesla
460
752
63.5
4.2
6.6
2.4
1,762
3,206
82.0
3.8
5.5
1.7
2,585
2,949
14.1
23.4
26.0
2.6
11,436
14,720
28.7
24.8
25.4
0.6
218
252
15.6
2.0
2.2
0.2
932
1,157
24.1
2.0
2.0
0.0
76
59
-22.4
0.7
0.5
-0.2
275
297
8.0
0.6
0.5
-0.1
Toyota Volkswagen Volvo
Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
The table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in Hawaii. Figures are shown for the 4th Quarters of ‘20 and ‘21, and annual totals. The top ten ranked brands in each change category are shaded light orange.