The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2022 Edition 1
The 2022 HADA Convention
At the Mauna Lani Auberge, Hawaii Island, September 14-16 with this year’s convention theme...
We’re All Connected. (See story on pages 8 and 9)
The Road to a Sustainable Hawai‘i is Filled with Alternatives
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What will it take for Hawai‘i to reach its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045? It will take all of us to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and shift to more sustainable vehicle options.
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Smarter tools. A competitive advantage. It’s all connected. Everything from fast and secure loan processing to inventory and floor plan financing. Just a few of the many tools to give your dealership a competitive edge. Call our Dealer Center at 844-3860
Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601 Honolulu, HI 96813 (808)593-0031 • Fax (808)593-0569
2021-2022 HADA Officers & Directors President Heather Cutter President-Elect Wayne De Luz
Working Together to Achieve Our Goals for Today and Tomorrow.
Vice President Eric Fukunaga Immediate Past President John Uekawa Secretary Brad Nicolai Treasurer Keoni Hansen NADA Director Stan Masamitsu Hawaii Director Joe Hanley Maui Director Jim Falk Kauai Director Mike Niethammer Oahu Director Stan Masamitsu Oahu Director Angela Wong Oahu Director Michael Stoebner Oahu Director Jerry Romano
In 2022 auto dealers are all juggling today’s challenges with tomorrow’s promises. Every day we are asked, “When will the car I want to buy be available?” or “When will my vehicle’s service be completed?” Usually these are easy questions to answer, but in today’s world the answer may not be as straightforward. Our customers do not want to hear about how the automotive sector is one of the hardest hit during the COVID pandemic. Nor do our customers want to learn about manufacturing shutdowns, workforce shortages, or parts unavailability, and they most certainly do not want to hear about chips. Customers do not want excuses and we do not want to give them any. As dealers we want to ensure our customers buy the car of their dreams and have seamless experiences with our parts and service departments. I truly believe every dealer in Hawaii is doing their best to serve our local customers despite today’s challenges. We all work hard to conquer these challenges because of our love for our dealerships and for the opportunity to fulfill tomorrow’s promises. Indeed, there is one thing all our customers may want to hear. The automobile industry has been around for several decades and as it continues to evolve it is here to stay for many more decades to come. In fact, the word automotive comes from the Greek autos (self) and Latin motivus (of motion), referring to any form of self-powered vehicle. From the horseless carriage to the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, electric vehicles (EV), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV), and even autonomous vehicles, our industry continues to innovate. As our manufacturers are writing the future with innovative products, it is our job as dealers to learn and evolve to ensure we can provide the best automotive experience for decades to come. I am looking forward to working together in 2022 to achieve our goals for today and tomorrow.
At-Large Director Bil van den Hurk At-Large Director Brandon Campbell
HADA STAFF Executive Director Dave Rolf
Heather Cutter HADA President 2022-2023
HawaiiDealer is designed & published by Custom Publishing Design Group, Inc.® 800.246.1637 • www.MyCompanyMagazine.com. To advertise in an upcoming issue contact Sara Russell, 800.246.1637 ext. 315 or e-mail sara@mycompanymagazine.com.
HawaiiDealer is published quarterly by the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601, Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808 593-0031 Fax: 808 593-0569 Email: drolf@hawaiidealer.com
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TURNING MASSIVE CHALLENGES INTO MEANINGFUL CHANGE
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A special place. HADA members can reserve a room now for the HADA Convention, September 14 &15, 2022 at the Mauna Lani Auberge Collection
We’re All Connected
The 2022 HADA Convention At the Mauna La These soulful lands on the Island of Hawaii were once cherished by Hawaiian royalty; a special place. The “local favorite” Auberge Resort is chosen for the site of the 2022 HADA Convention. For many Hawaii loyalists, the Mauna Lani resort on the “Big Island” (officially known as the Island of Hawaii) has long been a beloved mainstay, a Kona-Kohala coast go-to. Its location is a convenient 40-minute drive from the Kona airport. The venue offers many open-air meeting 8
facilities and restaurants. The convention schedule is set for two days this year — Wednesday, September 14 and Thursday September 15, 2022. The format for the convention includes…. Day 1: Wednesday, September 14: Lunch Board Meeting Evening Cocktail/Pupu Reception 6-8 p.m. Day 2: Thursday, September 15: Morning Breakfast/General Meeting of the
These soulful lands were once cherished by Hawaiian royalty
n on the Island of Hawaii.
ani Auberge, Hawaii Island, September 14-16 Association 8-11 a.m. Afternoon — Pool/Beach/Spa/Golf Tournament 12- 5 p.m. Evening — Cocktail reception, dinner/awards with entertainment 6:30 - 10 p.m. Day 3: Friday, September 16: Breakfast at leisure Departure
HADA members are encouraged to reserve your room now. Block Room rates and the registration group code have been sent to all HADA members via email. Sponsorship information has been sent via email HADA members are encouraged to please reserve your room as soon as possible to ensure the room block rates. 9
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Serious Business.
Legislation Relating to the Auto Industry This Year
The view of the Capitol from the HADA office’s small meeting table.
HADA’s Position:
–The transition must be practicable.
–Passenger cars and trucks are a necessity in Hawaii.
Note: Our Rosetta Stone graphic, often seen in these pages, has illustrated all of the above.
–The new fuels transition requires installation of a big infrastructure network, time and public/ private investments.
Our #1 Legislative Issue: A bill that challenged HRS437
–Fossil fuel will provide the needed bridge for the transition.
The EV-rebate bill (HB2090), sought to address concerns by some legislators that electric vehicles and EV government programs have had a 11
tendency to serve primarily wealthier individuals. HB2090 was thus designed to provide EV rebates to low and moderate income individuals and some non-profits that served these individuals. The Problem: For the first time, there was language that possibly allowed circumvention of HRS 437, with possible government rebates going for purchase of vehicles from unlicensed entities. At HADA’s request the “appropriate entities” language relating to possible circumvention of purchase from licensed motor vehicle dealers was deleted. Also at HADA’s request, new language requiring government rebates to go only to purchasers of licensed Hawaii new and used motor vehicle dealers-- as specified in HRS 437-was inserted. NOTE: The HADA-requested bill amendment was similar to an informal ruling –also supported by HADA-- in a recent Motor Vehicle Industry Licensing Board vote –relating to a request by Kauai County to purchase vehicles from an outof-state entity. The MVILB voted 4-1 to require purchasers to abide by provisions in HRS 437. MVILB’s representative Russ Wong, along with
the MVILB’s executive director, Jenny Yam also submitted supportive testimony for upholding the integrity of HRS 437’s licensing laws. Another major HADA concern also has been addressed. The dollar amount of the rebates has been filled in and should likely now remain under $2 million. An earlier HADA concern was that large amounts would have caused extreme market distortion. HADA expressed in testimony, however, that many concerns remained the in the bill. At press time the bill has now been deferred. #2 Legislative Issue: A bill establishing working groups on ground transportation should include provisions for HADA participation. (SB3311) The Senate vice chair of the Transportation Committee, Hawaii Island Senator Lorraine Inouye, asked that new motor vehicle dealers be included in the working group that address the future of ground transportation in Hawaii. This coincides with the HADA proposal to create a Roadmap to Hawaii’s Transportation Future. The HADA concern has been addressed. The bill remains alive.
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Photo: Kaiwi Channel by William Renio
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#3 HADA Legislative issue: That sufficient funds would be available to support $35,000 rebates to dealers who installed DC-fast charger EV charging stations. HB1811 and companion SB2720 addressed this issue.
HADA legislative issue #5 – The Minimum Wage Bill.
The HADA concern is being addressed by companion bill SB2720…which stipulates that the cap on the electric charging station rebate fund be lifted.
Senate Min. Wage Bill (SB 2018)….$18 / hour by 2026
Note: The bills remain alive. HADA CONCERN #4: That the Senate bill to provide EV rebates be modified so as to avoid excessive government control and possible instant “flipping” of vehicles purchased with rebates. Senator Lee, the sponsor of the bill, phoned the HADA office to say that he was removing the portion of the bill that applied to new cars and trucks. Our HADA concern was that, with the amount of the rebate unspecified, the program had the possibility of being disruptive. It remains alive, but now without inclusion of EV rebates for new cars and trucks.
House’s Min. Wage Bill (HB2510)….$18 / hour by 2030
Since HADA dealers generally have paid employees considerably above the current $10.10 min. hourly wage, The federal minimum wage is $7.25 / hour. HADA is monitoring the minimum wage bills in the House and the Senate as the legislative session progresses. In conclusion…. Most of the HADA legislative issues this year have been addressed by legislators through HADAproposed amendments. The minimum wage bill likely will require a lot of thoughtful consideration and input by dealers this year. HADA, this year, has logged in on many other bills, but these are the ones ALIVE that will see continuing HADA input.
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Dealers are Essential to Broader EV Adoption by by MIKE MIKE STANTON STANTON
E
arlier arlier this this year, year, when when Ford Ford unveiled the F-150 unveiled the F-150 Lightning, Lightning, it it did did far far more more than than just just announce announce the the newest newest iteration iteration of of the the most most popular popular and best-selling vehicle and best-selling vehicle in in America America for for the the last last 40 40 years. years. It It ushered ushered in in a new—and long overdue—era a new—and long overdue—era of of battery-electric battery-electric vehicles vehicles built built not not to to fill niches within the American fill niches within the American car car market, market, but but for for the the bulk bulk of of it. it.
This was a watershed moment in automotive history, This was a watershed moment in automotive history, and maybe American history. That’s because the F-150 and maybe American history. That’s because the F-150 Lightning is far more than just a truck. And it’s more Lightning is far more than just a truck. And it’s more than just an electric truck. It’s the vanguard of a wave than just an electric truck. It’s the vanguard of a wave of vehicles that can finally bridge the gap between the of vehicles that can finally bridge the gap between the battery-electric vehicles we have now, and the BEVs battery-electric vehicles we have now, and the BEVs that can truly make an impact on our climate over the that can truly make an impact on our climate over the long term by appealing to the vast majority of American long term by appealing to the vast majority of American car and truck buyers in a way that our current EVs car and truck buyers in a way that our current EVs simply do not. simply do not. Franchised dealers have been waiting for this moment Franchised dealers have been waiting for this moment for years. Dealers are “all in” on EVs and incredibly for years. Dealers are “all in” on EVs and incredibly excited about the new electrified products that are being excited about the new electrified products that are being announced almost daily. And dealers are hungry for the announced almost daily. And dealers are hungry for the sales and service opportunities that are going to come with sales and service opportunities that are going to come with having numerous new EV models to sell. having numerous new EV models to sell. And while today’s EVs are exceptional, particularly And while today’s EVs are exceptional, particularly compared to those of just a decade ago, the reality is that compared to those of just a decade ago, the reality is that almost all of them appeal primarily either to stalwart almost all of them appeal primarily either to stalwart supporters of reducing greenhouse gas emissions or luxury supporters of reducing greenhouse gas emissions or luxury vehicle buyers who want to be on the cutting edge of vehicle buyers who want to be on the cutting edge of technology and performance. technology and performance. One of the great mistakes we make in assessing our One of the great mistakes we make in assessing our progress on converting America’s fleet to electric is progress on converting America’s fleet to electric is assuming that today’s EV buyers will look like the EV buyers assuming that today’s EV buyers will look like the EV buyers of tomorrow. This simply isn’t true. of tomorrow. This simply isn’t true. It is undisputed that Tesla has been extremely successful It is undisputed that Tesla has been extremely successful at selling its products, and the company deserves at selling its products, and the company deserves significant credit for what it has been able to accomplish. significant credit for what it has been able to accomplish. But does Tesla’s success prove that you can sell EVs in great But does Tesla’s success prove that you can sell EVs in great quantities in America? Does it reveal the path to the mass quantities in America? Does it reveal the path to the mass adoption of EVs? adoption of EVs? Short answer: No! Short answer: No! What Tesla has proven is that you can sell Teslas very What Tesla has proven is that you can sell Teslas very successfully in America to a certain, and pretty small, successfully in America to a certain, and pretty small, subset of our population. To date, American EV buyers subset of our population. To date, American EV buyers are vastly different from ICE-vehicle buyers. In particular, are vastly different from ICE-vehicle buyers. In particular, compared to ICE buyers, EV buyers are much compared to ICE buyers, EV buyers are much wealthier, much better informed about EVs, wealthier, much better informed about EVs, and are acquiring their third, fourth or fifth and are acquiring their third, fourth or fifth current car. current car.
Not only are America’s current EV buyers willing to pay Not only are America’s current EV buyers willing to pay full list price, many of them wear it as a badge of honor full list price, many of them wear it as a badge of honor that they’ve done so. They know exactly what they want, that they’ve done so. They know exactly what they want, so they don’t need to talk to a salesperson, either about so they don’t need to talk to a salesperson, either about the car or about financing. And because they tend to have the car or about financing. And because they tend to have multiple vehicles in their personal or family fleet, they are multiple vehicles in their personal or family fleet, they are much more likely to be willing to wait for delivery, live with much more likely to be willing to wait for delivery, live with range limitations, live with the time and planning it takes range limitations, live with the time and planning it takes to recharge, and deal with service delays. to recharge, and deal with service delays. But this buyer type is not likely to dominate the EV But this buyer type is not likely to dominate the EV market over the coming years. Why? Because the vehicles market over the coming years. Why? Because the vehicles are changing. And as the EV market leaves luxury niche are changing. And as the EV market leaves luxury niche status and enters the mainstream, its customers will come status and enters the mainstream, its customers will come to resemble the average car buyer more and more. to resemble the average car buyer more and more. This is a good thing! We should all be ecstatic that going This is a good thing! We should all be ecstatic that going forward, when we talk about how to foster adoption of EVs forward, when we talk about how to foster adoption of EVs in the U.S., we won’t be talking exclusively about how to in the U.S., we won’t be talking exclusively about how to market $120,000 sports cars and luxury SUVs, or vehicles market $120,000 sports cars and luxury SUVs, or vehicles that compromise on utility, but instead will be talking that compromise on utility, but instead will be talking about how to best market $40,000 pickup trucks—that about how to best market $40,000 pickup trucks—that just so happen to be electric. just so happen to be electric. It’s the EV customers of the future who we need to cater It’s the EV customers of the future who we need to cater to if we are to have meaningful and broad EV adoption. to if we are to have meaningful and broad EV adoption. And we can finally start to think realistically about And we can finally start to think realistically about doing so. We are essentially at the doorstep of selling doing so. We are essentially at the doorstep of selling EVs—real, functional, non-niche EVs—to mass-market car EVs—real, functional, non-niche EVs—to mass-market car buyers for the first time ever. And to sell effectively to massbuyers for the first time ever. And to sell effectively to massmarket buyers, you need to capitalize on what has worked market buyers, you need to capitalize on what has worked for mass-market buyers for generations. for mass-market buyers for generations. Things like consumer education about the product, help Things like consumer education about the product, help with comparing models, working with a customer’s budget with comparing models, working with a customer’s budget constraints, financing assistance, helping with trade-ins, constraints, financing assistance, helping with trade-ins, allowing test drives, and—yes—even good-old-fashioned tire allowing test drives, and—yes—even good-old-fashioned tire kicking. And this is all in addition to the new challenges kicking. And this is all in addition to the new challenges specific to EVs, such as the complexities of charging—the specific to EVs, such as the complexities of charging—the fact, for instance, that electric rates vary based on the time fact, for instance, that electric rates vary based on the time of day and the level of charge—and other variables that of day and the level of charge—and other variables that don’t exist in the ICE market. don’t exist in the ICE market. Dealers are absolutely essential in this world of new Dealers are absolutely essential in this world of new EVs. Because once you get past luxury vehicles and into the EVs. Because once you get past luxury vehicles and into the mass market, you will not achieve broad acceptance of any mass market, you will not achieve broad acceptance of any
America’s America’s fleet fleet to to electric electric is is assuming assuming that today’s EV buyers will look that today’s EV buyers will look like like the the EV EV buyers buyers of of tomorrow. tomorrow. This This simply simply isn’t true. isn’t true. product, regardless of how it’s powered, by rejecting the product, regardless of how it’s powered, by rejecting the attributes of the sales and service process that massattributes of the sales and service process that massmarket vehicle buyers aren’t just accustomed to, but market vehicle buyers aren’t just accustomed to, but that they depend on to confidently choose the right that they depend on to confidently choose the right vehicle at the right price that best meets all their needs. vehicle at the right price that best meets all their needs. We hear a lot of people argue that dealers are an We hear a lot of people argue that dealers are an impediment to EV sales in the U.S. This has never been impediment to EV sales in the U.S. This has never been true. And moving forward, this type of thinking won’t true. And moving forward, this type of thinking won’t just be wrong, it will be dangerous—if our goal is, as it just be wrong, it will be dangerous—if our goal is, as it should be, to sell a greater number of EVs to a broader should be, to sell a greater number of EVs to a broader segment of the American market. segment of the American market. This is a critical juncture in our march toward a This is a critical juncture in our march toward a cleaner future. And it’s a good time for policymakers cleaner future. And it’s a good time for policymakers and stakeholders at all levels to think critically about and stakeholders at all levels to think critically about what it’s going to take to sell EVs in greater volumes to what it’s going to take to sell EVs in greater volumes to customers who haven’t experienced EVs yet. customers who haven’t experienced EVs yet. Because the reality is that it’s going to take a lot. It’s Because the reality is that it’s going to take a lot. It’s going to take a network of tens of thousands of retail going to take a network of tens of thousands of retail and service points located in just about every corner and service points located in just about every corner of the country, not just a website. It’s going to take of the country, not just a website. It’s going to take hundreds of thousands of knowledgeable sales staff, not hundreds of thousands of knowledgeable sales staff, not just a 1-800 number. And it’s going to take hundreds just a 1-800 number. And it’s going to take hundreds of thousands of highly-trained technicians capable of thousands of highly-trained technicians capable of providing professional service on the spot, not just of providing professional service on the spot, not just mobile repair trucks. mobile repair trucks. It’s going to take dealers. Fortunately, we’re already It’s going to take dealers. Fortunately, we’re already here, and we are raring to go. ■ here, and we are raring to go. ■
Dealers Dealers are are absolutely absolutely essential essential in in this this world world of of new new EVs. EVs. Because Because once once you you get get past past luxury luxury vehicles vehicles and and into into the the mass mass market, market, you you will will not not achieve achieve broad broad acceptance acceptance of of any any product, product, regardless regardless of of how how it’s it’s powered, powered, by by rejecting rejecting the the attributes attributes of of the the sales sales and and service service process process that that mass-market mass-market vehicle vehicle buyers buyers aren’t aren’t just just accustomed accustomed to, to, but but that that they they depend depend on on to to confidently confidently choose choose the the right right vehicle vehicle at at the the right right price price that that best best meets meets all all their their needs. needs.
Mike Stanton is president and CEO of the National Automobile Dealers Association. Mike Stanton is president and CEO of the National Automobile Dealers Association.
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One One of of the the great great mistakes mistakes we we make make in in assessing our progress on converting assessing our progress on converting
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Honda Windward’s Michael Stoebner, right, is shown at the NADA SHOW in Las Vegas with his father Morrie Stoebner, left, a previous HADA nominee for the Time Dealer of the Year Award. Michael was nominated this year by HADA dealers for the prestigious award.
Congratulations to Michael Stoebner
—Hawaii’s State Dealer of the Year….and HADA’s Nominee for the 2022 Time Dealer of the Year HADA’s nominee for the 2022 Time Dealer of the Year Award, Michael Stoebner was one of a select group of dealer nominees from across the country who were honored at the 105th annual National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Show in Las Vegas on March 11, 2022. Bob Giles, owner of Giles Automotive in Lafayette, La. was chosen as this year’s winner of the award. Ally, the exclusive sponsor of 16
the TIME Dealer of the Year Award, will give $10,000 to the charity of Giles’ choice. The company also will donate $5,000 to nonprofit organizations selected by each of the four finalists. As a HADA’s nominee, Michael was presented $1,000 from Ally to give to the charity of his choice. The TIME Dealer of the Year award is one of the automobile industry’s most prestigious and highly coveted honors. Recipients are among the nation’s most successful auto dealers who also demonstrate a long-standing commitment to community service. Michael was one of only 47 auto dealers nominated for the 53rd annual award from more than 16,000 nationwide.
Hawaii New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations
Pure electric (ZEV) Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Total alternative powertrain Industry Total
New Vehicle Registrations 2020 2021 % change 2257 4249 88% 1524 3203 110% 433 917 112% 4214
8369
99%
46064
57851
26%
Market Share 2020 2021 4.9% 7.3% 3.3% 5.5% 0.9% 1.6% 9.1%
14.5%
Source: Auto Outlook, based on registration data provided by Experian Automotive. Some figures estimated. From the Hawaii Energy Office’s Website Relating to EV Charging Station Rebates Available….
Electric Vehicle Charging Stations There’s No Better Time Than Now to Get EV Ready! EVs are in high demand – install an EV charging station at your commercial facility or multi-unit residential dwelling and reap the many benefits.
What's New? As of March 3, 2022, all EV Charging Station Rebate funds allotted for the 2021-2022 Program Year have been expended. Hawaii Energy is assembling a waitlist of completed projects when funds become available. Hawaii Energy will provide updates and any new program information on this page, so please check back here or our Frequently Asked Questions for the most current information. If you have any questions, please contact Desiree Sumaoang at desiree.sumaoang@leidos.com for the most current information. Rebates Level 2 Station (must have at least 2 ports) • (First-Time Installation) $4,500 per networked station • (Retrofit) $3,000 per networked station
DC Fast-Charging Station • (First-Time Installation) $35,000 per networked station • (Retrofit) $28,000 per networked station
*Additional funding is available for networked Level 2 stations installed at affordable housing properties. Please contact us for more information.
(Additional information on page 18)
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In legislation proposed, $1 million will be added to the EV Charging Station Rebate funds which are available to applying dealerships Program Overview & Eligibility • As of March 3, 2022, all EV Charging Station Rebate funds allotted for the 2021-2022 Program Year have been expended. • Hawaii Energy is assembling a waitlist for completed projects to receive rebate funding. When funds become available, the completed applications will be processed in the order they are received. • Applications must be received by Hawaii Energy within 12 months of the date that a qualifying charging station was installed, activated, and made available for use. • Applicants may receive up to six (6) Level 2 EVCS rebates (up to a total of $27,000) per site or up to two (2) DC Fast-Charger rebates per utility customer (N.B.: one DC Fast-Charger per site; i.e., up to a total of $35,000 per site). • Program approval is generally not required prior to the purchase and installation of equipment; however, prior approval is strongly recommended to confirm funding availability and verify that the equipment meets minimum qualifications for an incentive. • For a full list of eligibility requirements, review our Application & Program Requirements. For more information contact: https://www.hawaiienergy.com/for-business/rebates/electric-vehiclecharging-stations
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Covering Data thru December 2021 Covering Data thru December 2021
Volume 21, Number 1 Volume 21, Number 1
Hawaii Auto Outlook
TM
Hawaii Auto Outlook Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association ™
Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST FORECAST
State Market Poised for Recovery When Supply Issues Abate
State Market Poised for Recovery When Supply Issues Abate
The Hawaii new vehicle market has been on a roller coaster ride over the past 24 months. Since the beginning of 2020, there have been sharp cyclical swings in sales that would typically take more than five years to occur. Roller coasters can get your head spinning, and in a similar manner, the peaks and troughs in new vehicle sales over the past two years have been disorienting. The summary below presents the main highlights, and provides a perspective on what lies ahead. How the market performed in 2021 Focusing on the year as a whole, the market recovered from the pandemic-lows of 2020. New retail light vehicle registrations in the state last year were up 25.6% from 2020, well above the 5.1% increase in the U.S. It was definitely not a smooth ride, however. The market was up 33% from January through September of 2021 versus year earlier, but then inventory shortages impacted sales in the final three months. Results in Fourth Quarter of 2021 New retail light registrations in the state during the Fourth Quarter of 2021 were 11,322 units, up just 2.4% versus year earlier. Reporting of registrations lags the timing of vehicle sales, so the weakness that took hold at the end of 2021 will likely be reflected in 1Q 22 registration data.
What’s ahead in 2022 As mentioned below, there are positives and negatives that will impact demand for new vehicles, but sales levels will be determined almost entirely by supply. Based on projections for vehicle production, the consensus outlook for U.S. sales in 2022 is about 15.5 million units. According to Auto Outlook’s analysis of historical trends, this would be equivalent to 57,400 new retail registrations in the state, down 0.8% from 2021. This is the baseline forecast shown below. Alternate upside and downside scenarios are also displayed. Demand may soften in 2022 The Omicron variant has raised concerns about how quickly the economy can recover from the pandemic and inflation is now a primary concern. Commodity cost pressures and wage-price inflation are both significant. And the prospects of built-in consumer expectations for rising prices could make inflation a longer term issue. Increasing interest rates is the primary tool used to combat inflation and this will lead to some easing in the demand for new vehicles. But even with a moderate slide in consumer affordability, demand will almost certainly exceed supply during 2022. Easing of demand might reign in some of the upward pressure on vehicle prices, but it’s not likely to have an impact on sales levels.
New light vehicle registrations
Annual Trend in State Market
62716
62457
59480
57851
57323
57400
46064
25,000 0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Forecast for Hawaii New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations in 2022 Baseline scenario: 57,400 down 0.8% vs. ‘21 Alternative upside: 59,900 up 3.5% vs. ‘21 Alternative downside: 54,300 down 6.1% vs. ‘21
Market Summary 2020
2021
% C hg .
M kt . S har e
A n n ual
A n n ual
' 20 t o ' 21
2021
TOTAL
46,064
57,851
25.6%
Car
12,508
14,236
13.8%
24.6%
Light Truck
33,556
43,615
30.0%
75.4%
Domestic
11,508
13,847
20.3%
23.9%
European
4,976
5,694
14.4%
9.8%
Japanese
26,387
33,574
27.2%
58.0%
3,193
4,736
48.3%
8.2%
75,000 50,000
Reasons for optimism As shown on page 2, the impact of the pandemic and resulting supply issues have resulted in the postponement of a significant number of vehicle purchases. Registrations between 2020 and 2022 will be an estimated 15,085 units lower than they would have been in normal circumstances. It’s a big number that is equal to nearly 26% of sales in an average year. Nearly all of those postponed purchases will occur at some point during the next several years, giving the state market a big boost. As we have learned during past two years, uncertainty abounds and it’s not likely to be a smooth ride, but the directional trend for the market is decidedly positive.
2021
2022 Forecast The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations from 2016 thru 2021 and Auto Outlook’s projection for 2022. Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Korean
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, Stellantis (excluding Alfa Romeo and FIAT), and Tesla. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
x
19
Hawaii Auto Outlook
Page 2
Page 2
Hawaii Auto Outlook
HawaiiNew NewVehicle VehicleMarket MarketDashboard Dashboard Hawaii
PENT UP DEMAND
Estimated
75000
New retail light vehicle registrations in 2020, 2021, and 2022 forecast versus projections before onset of pandemic
58600 57851
58000
59800 57400
46064
50000
25000
0
2020
2021
Projections before pandemic
2022
15,085 new vehicle purchases will be postponed between 2020 & 2022 representing
Actual for 2020 and 2021; 2022 forecast
26% of sales in an average year
Historical Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Projections: Auto Outlook.
STATE MARKET VS. U.S.
% Change In New Retail Market for all of 2021 vs. 2020
Hawaii
U.S.
UP 25.6%
UP 5.1%
Source for state registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. U.S. figures estimated by Auto Outlook.
At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data and contain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlook expressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation to update or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
20
New retail light vehicle registrations in the state market increased 25.6% during all of last year, higher than the 5.1% increase in the Nation. The big increase in the state last year was primarily due to significant impact the pandemic had on Hawaii new vehicle sales in 2020.
Hawaii Auto Outlook Published for: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601, Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808-593-0031 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390, Exton, PA 19341 Phone: 610-640-1233 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Information quoted must be attributed to Hawaii Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: AutoCount Data from Experian.” Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., February 2022
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 3
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 3
HawaiiNew NewVehicle VehicleMarket MarketDashboard Dashboard Hawaii TRACKING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Monthly Unemployment Rates in Hawaii
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
NOVEMBER 2021 SA
SU
10.3%
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
DECEMBER 2021 SA
SU
6.0%
MO
TU
WE
TH
FR
10 year high - 101.4 (Mar. 2018)
Key Values During Past 10 Years
Most recent - 70.6 (Dec. 2021)
12 month high - 88.2 (Apr. 2021)
10 year low - 67.4 (Nov. 2021)
Dec-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-20
$33.01
SA
5.7%
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S.)
Mar-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-19
Average Hourly Earnings for All Workers in State - Nov. 2021
Percent Change in U.S. Gross Domestic Product Change vs. previous quarter
Up $0.37 vs. year earlier
Chg. vs. preceding quarter
DECEMBER 2020 SU
Mar-20
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0
Dec-14
x 100000
Total Employment in Hawaii
40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0
'17
'18
'19
The state unemployment rate fell to 5.7% in December of last year, a considerable improvement from the 10.3% rate a year earlier. Total employment in December was 610,000, up from the lows in May of 2020, but still 49,000 below prepandemic levels. Average hourly earnings were up versus year earlier. Consumer sentiment has softened over the past few months.
'20
'21
Quarters shown for each year
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, University of Michigan, and U.S. Bureau of Econ. Analysis.
TOP TEN RANKINGS IN STATE MARKET Market Share for Top Ten Selling Brands in Hawaii 2021 Annual
Market Share for Top Ten Selling Models in Hawaii 2021 Annual
Toyota Tacoma 7.4%
Toyota 25.4% Honda 13.9%
Toyota 4Runner 4.9% Toyota RAV4 3.7%
Nissan 7.4% Ford 6.1%
Toyota Corolla 3.1% Honda CR-V 3.0%
Tesla 5.5% Subaru 4.8%
Tesla Model Y 3.0%
Kia 4.6%
Honda Civic 3.0% Honda HR-V 2.4%
Chevrolet 4.2%
Tesla Model 3 2.4%
Jeep 3.7% Hyundai 3.3%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
Toyota Camry 2.0%
21
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Hawaii Auto Outlook Page 4 Page 4 HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES HYBRID ANDELECTRIC ELECTRIC VEHICLES HYBRID AND VEHICLES
4 Hawaii AutoPage Outlook Hawaii Auto Outlook
Estimated Electric Vehicle Share Reached 8.6% in 4Q of 2021 Estimated Share Reached 8.6% in 4Q of 2021 EstimatedElectric ElectricVehicle Vehicle Share Reached 8.6% in 4Q of 2021 Estimated Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share and electric vehicles) Estimated(includes Quarterlyhybrid Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles)
10.0% 10.0% 8.0%
Annual Share by Engine Type (2020 Annual Shareand by 2021) Engine Type (2020 and 2021)
8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q1 '19 Q1 '19
Q2 '19 Q2 '19
Q3 '19 Q3 '19
Q4 '19 Q4 '19 Electric
Q1 '20 Q1 '20
Electric
Q2 '20 Q2 '20 Hybrid
Q3 '20 Q3 '20
Hybrid
Q4 Q1 '20 '21 Q4 Q1 '20 '21 Plug In Hybrid
Q2 '21 Q2 '21
Q3 '21 Q3 '21
Q4 '21 Q4 '21
Plug In Hybrid
The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric with multiple engine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric engine installation rates collected from other with multiple engine types were estimated bysources. Auto Outlook. The engine installation rates collected from other sources.
Electric Electric Hybrid Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Plug In Hybrid
2020 2020 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.9%
2021 2021 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 5.5% 1.6% 1.6%
vehicle market share. Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped estimates are based model registrations compiled by Experian, and vehicle market share. on Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped estimates are based on model registrations compiled by Experian, and
MARKET SEGMENTS MARKET SEGMENTS MARKET SEGMENTS
“True Truck” Truck” Share Shareof ofHawaii HawaiiMarket MarketisisBelow Below50% 50% “True “True Truck” Share of Hawaii Market is Below 50% In 2021, light trucks accounted for 75.4% of the statelight market, up accounted about 23 share points In 2021, trucks for 75.4% of during the past ten years. But due to the the state market, up about 23 share points sometimes fuzzy ten standards during the past years. the Butindustry due to has the used to classify vehicles, these frequently sometimes fuzzy standards the industry has cited light truck market can used to classify vehicles,share thesefigures frequently send a misleading signal regarding an apcited light truck market share figures can parent to biggersignal vehicles. send ashift misleading regarding an apparent shift to bigger vehicles. For example, many sub compact and compact SUVs (i.e., Buick For example, many sub Encore compactand andHonda comCR-V) are (i.e., essentially passenger cars pact SUVs Buick Encore and Honda with a hatchback, a higher center of gravCR-V) are essentially passenger cars ity, more ground clearance. Butofthese withand a hatchback, a higher center gravity, and more ground clearance. But these
vehicles are traditionally classified as light trucks included inclassified the sameasbroad vehiclesand areare traditionally light segment category as full size and trucks and are included in the pickups same broad large SUVs. In many small CUVs and are segment category asways, full size pickups more similar In to many compact cars thanCUVs to 6,000 large SUVs. ways, small are pound trucks.to compact cars than to 6,000 more similar pound trucks. The analysis below presents an alternative picture of truck market share an in the Hawaii The analysis below presents alternative market by re-mapping these traditional picture of truck market share in the Hawaii breakdowns. The two orange shaded circles market by re-mapping these traditional comprise what wetwo areorange callingshaded “true trucks” breakdowns. The circles -comprise mid sizewhat and we full are sizecalling SUVs,“true truck-based trucks” small SUVs, vans. The two - mid size andpickups, full sizeand SUVs, truck-based small SUVs, pickups, and vans. The two
Segment Market Shares - 2016 Segment Market Shares - 2016
Pickups and Vans 25.8% Pickups and Vans 25.8%
Mid Size/Large SUVs & Small Mid Size/Large truck-based SUVs SUVs & Small 14.9% truck-based SUVs 14.9%
Passenger Cars 37.3% Passenger Cars 37.3%
Small CUVs 22.1% Small CUVs 22.1%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
24
True Truck share of the market was less than True Truck share of 45% the last year. market was less than 45% last year.
blue circles consist of passenger cars and small crossover SUVs. blue circles consist of passenger cars and small crossover SUVs. By removing small CUVs from light trucks, true truck market the state during By removing smallshare CUVsinfrom light trucks, 2021 was market well below of the market true truck sharehalf in the state during43.4%. It’s increasing, up by 2.7 points from2021 was well below half of the market 2016, combined forpoints passenger 43.4%.but It’sthe increasing, uptotal by 2.7 from cars and CUVs accounts forpassenger the domi2016, butsmall the combined total for nant share of the market. cars and small CUVs accounts for the dominant share of the market.
Segment Market Shares - 2021 Segment Market Shares - 2021
Pickups and Vans 24.1% Pickups and Vans 24.1%
Mid Size/Large SUVs & Small Mid Size/Large truck-based SUVs SUVs & Small 19.3% truck-based SUVs 19.3%
Passenger Cars 24.6% Passenger Cars 24.6%
Small CUVs 32.0% Small CUVs 32.0%
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 5
Covering Data thru December 2021
Page 5
BRAND SCOREBOARD BRAND SCOREBOARD
16 ofof Greater than 20% in 2021 16 Brands BrandsHad HadIncreases Increases Greater than 20% in 2021 The graph below provides a comparative evaluation of brand sales performance in the state market. It shows the annual percent change in registrations last year for each brand, organized by category (i.e., Domestic, European, and Asian). Brand results in 2021 were almost entirely a function of product availability, as opposed to the typical determinants of marketing and dealership sales performance.
Percent Change in Hawaii New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations 2021 vs. 2020
Tesla
82.0%
Lincoln
67.4%
Jeep
31.5%
Ram
28.2%
Chrysler GMC
Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: Tesla and Lincoln
14.1%
Buick
7.8%
Dodge
7.7%
Cadillac
1.6%
Ford
0.6%
Chevrolet
-1.4%
BMW
27.1%
Porsche
26.6%
Volkswagen
24.1%
MINI
European Brands
14.9%
Volvo
Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: BMW and Porsche
8.0%
Audi
6.0%
Land Rover
5.6%
Mercedes Jaguar
Domestic
18.7%
-0.9% -32.1%
Genesis Kia
54.7%
Hyundai
34.0%
Honda
31.3%
Lexus
31.2%
Subaru
31.0%
Toyota
28.7%
Mitsubishi
28.4%
Nissan
21.1%
Acura
15.8%
Mazda Infiniti -50.0%
Asian Brands Largest percent increases from 2020 to 2021: Genesis and Kia
8.2% -12.4% -25.0%
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
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Hawaii Auto Outlook
Page 6
Page 6
Hawaii Auto Outlook
BRAND SEGMENT MARKET SHARES BRAND SEGMENT MARKET SHARES
Brandsin in77Primary PrimarySegments Segments Top Selling Selling Brands Non Luxury Cars
The seven graphs on this page show brand market share in seven key segments for all of 2021 in both the Hawaii and U.S. markets. State percent share is depicted by the red bars, U.S. share is light gray. Top ten brands in each segment are ranked from top to bottom based on Hawaii market share.
Toyota Honda Nissan
Segments were defined based on model classifications instead of overall brand positioning. For instance, Chevrolet appears on the Luxury and Sports cars graph because of the Corvette. Small SUVs consists of both Sub Compact and Compact Models. Email Auto Outlook (autooutlook@icloud.com) for market share information for Vans and Mini Vans.
Hyundai Kia
Mazda Subaru
Legend for all graphs Brand share of segment in Hawaii during 2021
Volkswagen
Brand share of segment in U.S. market during 2021
Luxury and Sports Cars
MINI 0.0
Pickups Toyota
Honda
BMW
Ford
Toyota
Tesla is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Porsche Chevrolet
GMC Honda
Infiniti
Hyundai 0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Kia
Toyota is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Jeep
Genesis
Mazda Ford
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
0.0
Tesla
Lexus
Honda
Lexus
BMW
Ford
BMW
Mercedes
Kia
Mercedes
Acura
Acura
Audi
Chevrolet Subaru Jeep
Tesla is top seller. Lexus state share is higher than U.S.
Audi Volvo Land Rover
Cadillac Porsche
Nissan
Infiniti
Tesla
40.0
60.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
30.0
Lexus is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Volvo
Porsche
20.0
20.0
Land Rover
Volkswagen
0.0
10.0
Mid and Full Size Luxury SUVs
Small Luxury SUVs
Toyota
Toyota is top seller and state share is higher than U.S.
Honda is top seller. Subaru state share is higher than U.S.
Hyundai
Volkswagen
Mid and Full Size Non Luxury SUVs
Hyundai
40.0
Jeep
Ram
Audi
30.0
Nissan
Nissan
Acura
20.0
Subaru
Chevrolet
Mercedes
10.0
Small Non Luxury SUVs
Tesla
Lexus
Toyota is top seller. Honda state share is higher than U.S.
Dodge
40.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
27
Covering Data thru December 2021 Covering Data thru December 2021 Covering Data thru December 2021 LONG TERM Covering DataTRENDS thru December 2021 LONG TERM TRENDS LONG TERMTRENDS TRENDS LONG TERM
Page 7 Page 7 Page 7
Page 7
New Vehicle Registrations in 2021 About the Same as In 2019 New below Vehicle Registrations in in2021 About thenew Same as In 2019 divided The graph Vehicle providesRegistrations aRegistrations long term perspective ofin trends the Hawaii market. It the shows retail vehicle New About the Same aslight In 2019 Vehicle in2021 2021 About Same as Inregistrations 2019
among four below primary segments: Small SUVs, Pickupsof and Vans,inMid andmarket. Large SUVs, and Passenger Cars.vehicle registrations divided The graph provides a long term perspective trends theSize Hawaii It shows new retail light The graph below provides a longSmall term SUVs, perspective of and trends in the market. It shows retail light vehicle registrations divided among four primary segments: Pickups Vans, Mid Hawaii Size and Large SUVs, andnew Passenger Cars. among four primary segments: Small SUVs, Pickups and Vans, Mid Size and Large SUVs, and Passenger Cars.
State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - 2007 thru 2021 State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - 2007 thru 2021 State New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - 2007 thru 2021
80000
Registrations declined to just above 46,000 units in 2020, declined but remained well above the low Registrations to just above 46,000 ofunits 33,509 in 2009 Registrations declined to just above 46,000 in 2020, but remained well above the low
80000 80000
units in 2020, but remained well above the low of 33,509 in 2009 of 33,509 in 2009
New vehicle New vehicle registrations registrations New vehicle registrations
60000 60000 60000 40000 40000 40000 20000 20000 20000 0
0'07 0 '07 '07
Passenger car market share declined from 44% inPassenger 2007 to 25% in 2021share declined from 44% car market
'08
'09
'10
Passenger market share declined from 44% in 2007 tocar 25% in 2021 in 2007 '11 '12to 25% '13in 2021 '14 '15 '16 '17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'08 '08
'09 '09
'10 '10
'11 '11
Years '14 '14 Years
'18 '18
'19 '19
'20 '20
'21 '21
Cars Cars
'12 '12
'13 '13
Mid Size and Large SUVs Mid Size and Large SUVs
Cars fromMid Size and Large SUVs Data Source: AutoCount data Experian. Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. COUNTY SCOREBOARD Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. COUNTY SCOREBOARD COUNTY SCOREBOARD COUNTY SCOREBOARD
'15 '15
'16 '16
Years Pickups & Vans Pickups & Vans Pickups & Vans
'17 '17
Small SUVs
State market declined sharply State market in 2020 assharply the State market declined pandemic impactdeclined sharply in 2020 as the ed new vehicle in 2020 as impactthe pandemic sales. Registrapandemic impacted new vehicle tions were up ed new vehicle sales. Registrain 2021. A small sales. Registrations were up decline isApredicttions were up in 2021. small ed this year, with in 2021. A small decline is predicta 10% higher decline predicted thisoris year, with increase possible ed this or year, with a 10% higher in 2023. aincrease 10% or higher possible increase in 2023. possible in 2023.
Small SUVs Small SUVs
All Island Markets Posted Big Gains Last year New Vehicle Markets Summary All Island Markets Posted Big Gains Last year Hawaii Kauai
All Last year All Island IslandMarkets MarketsPosted PostedBig BigGains Gains Last year The table on the right provides aThe summary of the each of Hawaii’s table on right provides four retailonlight vehicle marThe table the right a summary of each ofprovides Hawaii’s kets. The table is divided afour summary of each of Hawaii’s retail light vehicle into marfour sections. Sumlight Market markets.retail The table isvehicle divided into mary shows total new retail kets. table isMarket divided into four The sections. Sumlight durfour sections. Market maryvehicle showsregistrations total new Sumretail ing 2020 and 2021 and mary shows total new retail light vehicle registrations the durpercent change. The and second light vehicle registrations during 2020 and 2021 the and third change. sections show Light ing 2020 and 2021 and the percent The second Truck and Domestic Brand percent change. The second and third sections show Light market share. The show fourthBrand secand third sections Light Truck and Domestic tion shows market share figTruck and Domestic Brand market share. The fourth secures for the top 10 selling light market share. The fourth section shows market share figvehicle in selling the state. tion share figuresshows forbrands the market top 10 light The top rated each ures for the topcounty 10inselling light vehicle brands thein state. category is shaded. vehicle in the instate. The topbrands rated county each The top rated county category is shaded. in each Data Source: AutoCount data category is shaded. from DataExperian. Source: AutoCount data Data from Source: Experian.AutoCount data from Experian.
28
New Vehicle Markets Summary Market Summary New Vehicle Markets Summary Hawaii Kauai 2020 Annual 6031 2230 Hawaii Kauai Market Summary 2021 7950 3030 Market Summary 2020Annual Annual 6031 2230 Percent change 31.8% 35.9% 2020 Annual 6031 2230 2021 Annual 7950 3030 Light Truck Market Share 2021 Annual 7950 3030 Percent change 31.8% 35.9% 2020 79.5% 85.1% Percent change 31.8% 35.9% LightAnnual Truck Market Share 2021 Annual 80.8% 87.6% Light Market Share 2020Truck Annual 79.5% 85.1% Change (share points) 1.3 2.5 2020 Annual 79.5% 85.1% 2021 Annual 80.8% 87.6% Domestic Brandpoints) Market Share 2021 Annual 80.8% 87.6% Change (share 1.3 2.5 2020 Annual 24.4% 31.0% Change (share points) 1.3 2.5 Domestic Brand Market Share 2021 24.2% 27.4% Domestic Brand Market Share 2020Annual Annual 24.4% 31.0% Change (share points) -0.2 -3.6 2020 Annual 24.4% 31.0% 2021 Annual 24.2% 27.4% Market Share Top 10 Selling Brands in State - 2021 Annual 2021 Annual 24.2% 27.4% Change (sharefor points) -0.2 -3.6 Toyota 30.5% Change -0.2Annual -3.6 Market(share Sharepoints) for Top 10 Selling Brands in State - 30.0% 2021 Honda 11.5% 12.1% Market Annual Toyota Share for Top 10 Selling Brands in State - 2021 30.0% 30.5% Nissan 8.1% 7.8% Toyota 30.0% 30.5% Honda 11.5% 12.1% Ford 6.7% 11.0% Honda 11.5% 12.1% Nissan 8.1% 7.8% Tesla 2.7% 1.8% Nissan 8.1% 7.8% Ford 6.7% 11.0% Subaru 8.7% 8.5% Ford 6.7% 11.0% Tesla 2.7% 1.8% Kia 8.0% 6.3% Tesla 2.7% 1.8% Subaru 8.7% 8.5% Chevrolet 6.0% 5.0% Subaru 8.7% 8.5% Kia 8.0% 6.3% Jeep 3.8% 4.4% Kia 8.0% 6.3% Chevrolet 6.0% 5.0% Hyundai 3.1% 2.8% Chevrolet 6.0% 5.0% 2.3% Jeep 3.8% 4.4% Jeep 3.8% 4.4% Hyundai 3.1% 2.8% 2.3% Hyundai 3.1% 2.8% 2.3%
Maui
Oahu
Maui 4952 Maui 7339 4952 48.2% 4952 7339 7339 48.2% 80.9% 48.2% 81.3% 80.9% 0.4 80.9% 81.3% 81.3% 0.4 27.0% 0.4 23.8% 27.0% -3.2 27.0% 23.8% 23.8% -3.2 20.3% -3.2 16.4% 20.3% 6.5% 20.3% 16.4% 7.1% 16.4% 6.5% 4.2% 6.5% 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 4.2% 5.1% 4.2% 7.4% 3.6% 7.4% 5.1% 4.6% 5.1% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% 4.6% 4.6% 3.3% 3.3%
Oahu 32848 Oahu 39532 32848 20.3% 32848 39532 39532 20.3% 69.6% 20.3% 72.3% 69.6% 2.7 69.6% 72.3% 72.3% 2.7 24.4% 2.7 23.6% 24.4% -0.7 24.4% 23.6% 23.6% -0.7 25.1% -0.7 14.1% 25.1% 7.5% 25.1% 14.1% 5.4% 14.1% 7.5% 6.6% 7.5% 5.4% 3.2% 5.4% 6.6% 3.6% 6.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.4% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
Hawaii Auto Outlook Page 8
8 Hawaii AutoPage Outlook B r a n d R e gi str a ti o n s R e po r t H a w a i i Ne w R e ta i l C a r a n d L i gh t T r u ck R e gi str a ti o n s Fourth Quarter
Registrations 4Q '20 TOTAL
Annual Totals Market Share (%)
4Q '21 % change
4Q '20
4Q '21
11,058
11,322
2.4
Cars
2,803
2,664
-5.0
25.3
23.5
Light Trucks
8,255
8,658
4.9
74.7
76.5
Domestic Brands
2,880
2,748
-4.6
26.0
European Brands
1,278
1,137
-11.0
11.6
Japanese Brands
6,150
6,379
3.7
Korean Brands
750
1,058
Acura
113
Audi
88
BMW
Registrations Change
2020
Market Share (%)
2021 % change
2020
2021
Change
46,064
57,851
25.6
-1.8
12,508
14,236
13.8
27.2
24.6
-2.6
1.8
33,556
43,615
30.0
72.8
75.4
2.6
24.3
-1.7
11,508
13,847
20.3
25.0
23.9
-1.1
10.0
-1.6
4,976
5,694
14.4
10.8
9.8
-1.0
55.6
56.3
0.7
26,387
33,574
27.2
57.3
58.0
0.7
41.1
6.8
9.3
2.5
3,193
4,736
48.3
6.9
8.2
1.3
126
11.5
1.0
1.1
0.1
569
659
15.8
1.2
1.1
-0.1
80
-9.1
0.8
0.7
-0.1
464
492
6.0
1.0
0.9
-0.1
427
389
-8.9
3.9
3.4
-0.5
1,307
1,661
27.1
2.8
2.9
0.1
Buick
26
14
-46.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
102
110
7.8
0.2
0.2
0.0
Cadillac
40
18
-55.0
0.4
0.2
-0.2
122
124
1.6
0.3
0.2
-0.1 -1.1
Chevrolet
645
429
-33.5
5.8
3.8
-2.0
2,448
2,414
-1.4
5.3
4.2
CDJR Total
737
789
7.1
6.7
7.0
0.3
3,023
3,815
26.2
6.6
6.6
0.0
Chrysler
32
17
-46.9
0.3
0.2
-0.1
166
197
18.7
0.4
0.3
-0.1
Dodge
104
81
-22.1
0.9
0.7
-0.2
480
517
7.7
1.0
0.9
-0.1
Jeep
411
479
16.5
3.7
4.2
0.5
1,639
2,155
31.5
3.6
3.7
0.1
Ram
190
212
11.6
1.7
1.9
0.2
738
946
28.2
1.6
1.6
0.0
FIAT
6
0
-100.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
24
3
-87.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
Ford
835
637
-23.7
7.6
5.6
-2.0
3,493
3,514
0.6
7.6
6.1
-1.5
5
51
920.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
39
157
302.6
0.1
0.3
0.2
121
93
-23.1
1.1
0.8
-0.3
512
584
14.1
1.1
1.0
-0.1
1,459
1,522
4.3
13.2
13.4
0.2
6,123
8,040
31.3
13.3
13.9
0.6
331
405
22.4
3.0
3.6
0.6
1,445
1,936
34.0
3.1
3.3
0.2
Infiniti
35
26
-25.7
0.3
0.2
-0.1
185
162
-12.4
0.4
0.3
-0.1
Jaguar
8
3
-62.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
53
36
-32.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
414
602
45.4
3.7
5.3
1.6
1,709
2,643
54.7
3.7
4.6
0.9
41
34
-17.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
195
206
5.6
0.4
0.4
0.0
Lexus
353
277
-21.5
3.2
2.4
-0.8
1,313
1,723
31.2
2.9
3.0
0.1
Lincoln
16
14
-12.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
46
77
67.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
4
3
-25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13
23
76.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mazda
243
149
-38.7
2.2
1.3
-0.9
1,034
1,119
8.2
2.2
1.9
-0.3
Mercedes
253
189
-25.3
2.3
1.7
-0.6
1,124
1,114
-0.9
2.4
1.9
-0.5
MINI
81
64
-21.0
0.7
0.6
-0.1
309
355
14.9
0.7
0.6
-0.1
Mitsubishi
14
11
-21.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
74
95
28.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
822
778
-5.4
7.4
6.9
-0.5
3,554
4,304
21.1
7.7
7.4
-0.3
Genesis GMC Honda Hyundai
Kia Land Rover
Maserati
Nissan Other
8
6
-25.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
36
46
27.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
Porsche
68
61
-10.3
0.6
0.5
-0.1
244
309
26.6
0.5
0.5
0.0
Subaru
526
540
2.7
4.8
4.8
0.0
2,099
2,750
31.0
4.6
4.8
0.2
Tesla
460
752
63.5
4.2
6.6
2.4
1,762
3,206
82.0
3.8
5.5
1.7
2,585
2,949
14.1
23.4
26.0
2.6
11,436
14,720
28.7
24.8
25.4
0.6
218
252
15.6
2.0
2.2
0.2
932
1,157
24.1
2.0
2.0
0.0
76
59
-22.4
0.7
0.5
-0.2
275
297
8.0
0.6
0.5
-0.1
Toyota Volkswagen Volvo
Source: AutoCount data from Experian.
The table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in Hawaii. Figures are shown for the 4th Quarters of ‘20 and ‘21, and annual totals. The top ten ranked brands in each change category are shaded light orange.
29
Advertise In The
The Official Pub lication of the H awaii Automobi le Dealers Assoc iation
2021 Edition 4
HawaiiDealer Established under HADA president Charlie King in 2002, the HawaiiDealer is a quarterly magazine that provides information on the activities of HADA members to a wide audience, including the membership of the Association, key employees at the dealerships, legislators, city council members, Hawaii media, the Congressional Delegation, and many Hawaii sister organizations. HADA appreciates the “sponsorship” of the official publication through the provision of sixth, third, half, and fullpage color messages.
Michael Stoebner is the 2022 Hawaii Sta te Dealer of the Year
(See story on pages 8
and 9) The Official Pub lication of the H awaii Automobi le Dealers Assoc iation
2021 Edition 3
(See the Story on How
Powertrains Are Playing
The Official Pub lication of the H awaii Automobi le Dealers Assoc iation
Larger Role Nowadays
2021 Edition 2
Taking a Breather
Mahalo! For more information, contact Custom Publishing Design Group, Inc. Tel 860-513-1213 Fax 860-513-1216 Sara@MyCompanyMagazine.com
The Pause Before Major Change (See HADA President’s Remarks
page 4) The Official Pub lication of the H awaii Automob
ile Dealers Asso ciation
2021 Edition 1
The Big Lie
“For years, one of the great myths that has persisted about the auto industry has been that franchised dealers don’t want to sell electric vehicles. And it’s time to put this myth out to pasture.” —Mike Stanton
President and CEO of the National Automobile Dealers Association
(See story pages 8, 9 and
10)
reprinted with permission
Also in this Edition...
Also see the HADA website at www.hawaiiautodealer.com
60000
56300
50000
55000 49750
46064
40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2020
Will buying an EV prevent
climate change?
See pages 12,13 and 14
2021
Forecast generated in early
Serving the community during the COVID crisis, one dealership provided sneeze guards for classrooms. See page 16
2020
2020 actual, 2021 forecast
Some 15,486 new vehicle purchases will be postponed during 2020 and 2021.
See Auto Outlook pages 18-29
pages 7 & 8)
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