The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2018 Summer Edition
The big “if” in tariff… See story pages 8, 9, and 10
Covering Data thru June 2018
Volume 17, Number 3
Hawaii Auto Outlook
f f i r
TM
Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST
State New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018
a T
Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the Hawaii new vehicle market:
8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Tesla, Land Rover, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Subaru
1. State new retail registrations declined a slim 1.6% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market fell by less than 1%.
9. State market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford and Chevrolet.
2. As shown on the graph below, the market has plateaued during the past several years, with sales remaining at elevated levels.
10. Top ten selling vehicles in state market: Toyota Tacoma, Toyota 4Runner, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic, Toyota RAV4, Nissan Rogue, Toyota Camry, Ford F-Series, Toyota Corolla, and Honda HR-V.
3. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 58,750 units, down slightly from 2017. 4. Light truck market share increased from 63.4% during the first six months of 2017 to 67.2% this year.
Market Outlook for next two years: New vehicle sales should remain above average; uncertainties increasing
5. Registrations for European brands were up 4% so far this year, while the overall market declined.
Strong economic growth, rising employment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pressures are concerns for the market.
6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 6.1% thru June of this year, up slightly from last year.
YES
NO
or
7. Three biggest segments in the state are Compact SUV, Compact/ Mid Size Pickup, and Compact Car.
Also in this Edition... Annual Trend in State Market
Market Summary
The Big Bang for EV Uptake or Epic Pile-up? Global consulting firm AlixPartners predicts “a pile-up of epic proportions” but HADA proposes a solution. See pages 12, 13, and 14
New light vehicle registrations
70,000
YTD '17 thru June 29,740
60,000 50,000
54039
40,000 30,000
57094 58485 59137 58750
48705 42463 32649
35576
20,000 10,000 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast
TOTAL
YTD '18 % Chg. thru June '17 to '18 29,258 -1.6%
Mkt. Share YTD '18
Car Light Truck
10,893 18,847
9,603 19,655
-11.8% 4.3%
32.8% 67.2%
Domestic European Japanese Korean
6,340 2,782 18,683 1,935
6,283 2,892 18,219 1,864
-0.9% 4.0% -2.5% -3.7%
21.5% 9.9% 62.3% 6.4%
Historical Data Source: IHS Markit.
Source: IHS Markit.
The graphSee above the shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2010 Hawaii Auto Outlook. thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2018.
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT and Alfa), and Tesla. Historical figuresinformation were revised by IHS on Markitthe and will differ slightly from those See the shown in previous releases.
Nov. 6th ballot issue.
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F U E L D I S C O U N T S O F F E R E D AT A L L H E L E A N D PA R T I C I PAT I N G 7 6 B R A N D E D R E TA I L S TAT I O N S .
Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601 Honolulu, HI 96813 (808)593-0031 • Fax (808)593-0569
2017-2018 HADA Officers & Directors President Brian Kitagawa President-Elect John Uekawa Vice President Eric Fukunaga Secretary Wayne De Luz Treasurer Kenny Ching NADA Director Stan Masamitsu Hawaii Director Jackie De Luz Watanabe Maui Director Jim Falk Kauai Director Mike Niethammer Oahu Director Stan Masamitsu Oahu Director Michael Stoebner Oahu Director Heather Cutter Oahu Director Brad Nicolai
Looking forward to seeing everyone on Kauai At the upcoming HADA convention, October 11-14, 2018 on Kauai, NADA’s Jonathan Collegio, senior vice president of public affairs, will speak on “Disruption in the Auto Industry, Revolution or Evolution?” and Motor Trend Auto Shows (MTAS) vice president Steve Freeman and Ad Strategies Curt Van Loon, will share a research study done on the 2018 First Hawaiian International Auto Show. They will address the role that auto shows play in customer purchases. The Hawaii Foresight Report was commissioned by MTAS to study the Hawaii market. So we can look forward to learning some specifics about our market and customer behavior. Also, to update dealers on the new HADA-initiated franchise law updates -which were inserted into the Hawaii Revised Statutes this legislative session-- every dealer attendee will receive a pamphlet explaining aspects of the new law. Of course, the convention will again feature golf, tennis, banquets, receptions, and entertainment. At Saturday night’s Awards Banquet, Pete Luke and Byron Hansen have again planned a “special” presentation, and the Hawaii Association of Broadcasters is again sponsoring the always-popular golf video produced by local students. For entertainment on Saturday night, we’ll again feature ”Willie K — who is just returning from a tour of Europe. Much thanks goes again to convention chair Bill van den Hurk for putting together what looks to be a great event. Also, much thanks goes to sponsors who make it possible for us to hold this event each year. Looking forward to seeing everyone on Kauai! Brian Kitagawa HADA President 2017–2018
At-Large Director Marc Cutter At-Large Director Keoni Hansen Immediate Past President Bill van den Hurk
HADA STAFF Executive Director Dave Rolf
HawaiiDealer is designed & published by Custom Publishing Design Group, Inc.® 800.246.1637 • www.MyCompanyMagazine.com. To advertise in an upcoming issue contact Sara Russell, 800.246.1637 ext. 315 or e-mail sara@mycompanymagazine.com.
HawaiiDealer is published quarterly by the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association, 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601, Honolulu, HI 96813 Phone: 808 593-0031 Fax: 808 593-0569 Email: drolf@hawaiidealer.com
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f f ri
a T
YES
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The Big “if” in Tariff… Hawaii U.S. Senator Mazie Hirono reached out to HADA dealers for dealer input on the proposed tariffs being considered by the Trump Administration as negotiations continue on tariffs affecting the auto industry. HADA responded with a letter and charts showing that the proposed tariffs would disproportionally affect Hawaii dealerships because Hawaii’s imported market share was near 80% compared to 60% imported market share for U.S….making Hawaii’s imported market share approximately one third higher than the U.S. imported market share. (Hawaii Auto Outlook, 2016 data). There was a high tariff in the ‘90s affecting Hawaii During the Clinton administration, a large tariff ($20,000) was placed by the U.S. on the Lexus model and other Japanese luxury models which caused great difficulties for the local Hawaii Lexus dealership here. It was reported that there was a loss of sales staff, who anticipated dramatic loss of income. There was also a loss of Lexus factory-trained auto technicians who also anticipated loss of work. All in all, there were considerable difficulties for the Lexus dealership here in Hawaii in 1995 with the imposition of a tariff that increased the cost of the vehicle by more than 50%. The message is this: tariffs can have serious consequences. See the HADA letter to Senator Hirono…
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9
Tariffs Are Taxes. The U.S. auto industry is thriving. It is highly globalized and efficient, keeping vehicles affordable and choices abundant at your local dealership. Just as American consumers are beginning to feel the true benefits of the 2017 tax cuts, auto tariffs would penalize the pocketbooks of hard-working families, throw cold water on the recent economic growth, and put hundreds of thousands of American jobs at risk.
What would a 25% auto tariff mean?
$6,400 average price increase on a $30,000 vehicle sold in the U.S.
Decreased Annual Auto Sales Rate by up to
2 million vehicles
3 jobs lost
$18 billion
for every 1 job gained in the auto and parts sector
decrease in U.S. GDP
Decrease U.S. auto production by
Decrease U.S. exports by
1.5%
4% annually
624,000 U.S. jobs lost Decrease the U.S. auto and parts workforce by
2% AIADA.org 10
$73 billion tax increase on consumers, wiping out as much as half of the benefits of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Auto tariffs spell trouble for auto dealers, their employees, and consumers Myth: Imported cars are a threat to U.S. national security. Fact: No one in the U.S. auto industry has asked for this investigation because auto imports do not threaten national security. The Department of Commerce’s Section 232 national security investigation is simply the vehicle through which the Administration felt it would have the easiest path to justify auto tariffs, as it did with steel and aluminum. Myth: Imported cars are flooding the U.S. market so tariffs are needed to protect U.S. national security. Fact: Last year international nameplate dealers sold 9.5 million vehicles, but only 3.6 million of those were actually imported from outside North America. Many were built right here in American plants by American workers. Myth: The cost of American brand vehicles won’t be affected by auto tariffs. Fact: Not only would the proposed auto tariffs apply to finished vehicles coming into the U.S., but also to parts. Since no vehicle sold at U.S. dealerships contains exclusively U.S.
parts content, EVERY vehicle would see a price increase. In addition, both domestic and international brand manufacturers are importing vehicles from outside of the U.S. In fact, last year the #2 and #3 top importers of vehicles into the U.S. were domestic manufacturers. Myth: Auto tariffs would grow jobs here in the U.S. Fact: A study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that a 25% auto tariff would cost 195,000 U.S. jobs. That figure skyrockets to 624,000 jobs lost when the inevitable retaliation by trading partners is factored in. Myth: Other countries will just have to pay the tariffs if they want to sell in the U.S. Fact: Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. consumers wishing to purchase the imported goods. Making matters worse, our trading partners will retaliate against American-made goods and U.S. consumers will be hit with a triple whammy of increased car prices, job losses in the U.S. auto industry, as well as in other U.S. industries that are the targets of retaliation.
9.5 million
577,000
Americans are employed by international nameplate auto dealers
9,600
international nameplate auto dealerships operate in communities across America
vehicles were sold by international nameplate auto dealers in 2017
America’s international nameplate dealers are an essential part of our economy.
55%
market share of 2017 U.S. retail vehicle sales held by international nameplate auto dealers
AIADA.org 11
The Big Bang in EV Uptake or Epic Pile-Up? Many in the U.S. have been expecting “The Big Bang” in electric vehicle adoption, but new car customer uptake looks more like an evolution rather than a revolution. Some, like AlixPartners consulting firm predict an epic pile up of EVs as governments around the world, through public policies, continue to require a transition to renewable fuels in vehicles, while customer uptake remains slower than anticipated. Hawaii, through all the U.S. market turmoil, has been at the forefront among states in EV adoption, thanks, in large part, to the steady hand of Hawaii dealers. The environmental message driving the worldwide movement toward electric and hydrogen cars has been a focus on keeping average global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial (1850) temperatures.
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This, it is said, will help to reduce polar cap ice melts and sea level rise. Some say, both are inevitable anyway, but efforts at reducing carbon emissions will be helpful. Customer uptake of EVs, however, remains slower than anticipated by government officials. Government-created Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards encourage automakers to increase EV production because the program is sort of a carbon cap and trade system that provides mile-per-gallon credits to automakers for producing EVs, allowing increased production of the more profitable, yet lower mpg, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks—which are currently popular with customers in the U.S., due in part, to low gas prices.
“The automotive industry faces the possibility of a monumental capital drain in the near term as hundreds of players, including nontraditional ones, are all pouring unprecedented sums into electric and autonomous vehicles years before those technologies are fully costcompetitive in the market, when consumers are questioning the cost and safety of some of the technologies, and just as the market itself is set to continue a cyclical downturn. That’s according to an exhaustive new study, including a pair of consumer surveys, from AlixPartners, the global consulting firm. The AlixPartners study finds that by 2023 a whopping $255 billion in R&D and capital expenditures is being spent globally on electric vehicles, and that some 207 electric models are set to hit the market by 2022, many of them destined to be unprofitable due to currently-high systems costs, low volumes and intense competition.” AlixPartners press release June 20, 2018
Currently, in Hawaii, EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) account for 4% of new vehicle sales— projected to be around 2,400 new vehicles out of nearly 60,000 anticipated to be sold this year. Shana Rappapoit, director of VERGE Strategic Programs, recently wrote that“…according to the United Nations, renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide over 90 percent of the electricity-related carbon dioxide emission reductions required to keep global temperatures from rising by 2 degrees Celsius,” but added that there is a need to increase the rate of adoption of these technologies sixfold. With the environmental message weakened somewhat because of the amount of conjecture involved and the possibility that success in the carbon reduction goal may not prevent problematic environmental outcomes, the focus has turned from the environmental benefits to the economic and fun-in-driving benefits of EVs. The HADA Rosetta Stone graphic (below) predicts that the 600% increase, over today’s uptake in Hawaii, will take place around 2036.
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Many who oppose all use of fossil fuels in vehicles, however, don’t much take into account the environmental benefits of gas-electric hybrid vehicle adoption and other gas-saving technologies that are being developed and deployed by the auto industry. Free-market ways for increasing EV adoption in Hawaii have included: --airing a $3 million-per-year EV benefits marketing campaign using the JetStones tv commercial series created by the VW diesel settlement’s Electrify America organization which hired Deutch ad agency to produce the highly entertaining and informative series, using music background from the popular sixties Jetsons and Flintstones tv series, running now only on cable stations. Colorful print advertising would be included in the Hawaii proposal—which proposes to obtain funding from the $30 million now raised by the small fee charged to all Hawaii customers on their electric bills. It is estimated that the campaign would increase EV sales in one year…to 6,000 vehicles and if repeated and continued would grow EV adoption by 10% per year over each previous year, producing 137,302 EVs by 2030. HADA’s Rosetta Stone graphic shows predictions of 40,000 EVs on the roadways in 2030 without such a high-profile marketing campaign and infrastructure development. It is interesting to note that originally, in 2008, the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative’s goal was for Hawaii to have 40 per cent clean energy used in the electricity production sector (utilities) with hopes for similar results in the ground transportation sector. This would have meant that 400,000 EVs would have to be on the roadways in 2030, if the number of total vehicles on the roadways remained constant at 1 million—a private- vehicles-in-use number in that year, which HADA predicts. If the +10% adoption rate continued year-by-year through 2045, the number of EVs on the roadways would be 548,000….of the 1 million cars in use, which is close to the 55% EV usage rate that the Hawaii Electric 14
Company is predicting will be in use by 2045. HADA notes that with such growth in renewable fuel vehicles and improvements in gas mileage in internal combustion and gas-electric hybrid vehicles, producing a fleet of all gas vehicles on the roadways with 60 mpg average in 2045….that the amount of gasoline used in the ground transportation sector relating to private vehicles would drop from nearly 500 million gallons a year in 2018 to only 42 million gallons a year in 2045— roughly 1/12th of the carbon production by vehicles operating today. HADA believes that eliminating that final 1/12th however, of gasoline used in vehicles at the time, 27 years hence, would have to be done at enormous cost, and would provide little benefit in a reasonable costbenefit analysis. The HADA-produced the Rosetta Stone graphic was created to show predicted status quo outcomes for EV uptake in future years, and how the HADA-proposed $3 million-a-year JetStones EV marketing campaign, and others like it, each year in the future, will allow policy makers see how free market forces, using education-ofthe-public programs can produce desired results without major economic disruptions.
Note: HADA has also proposed to coordinate the award of an EV to the 2019 State Teacher of the Year this year (use for a year) and is proposing, through our filing of recommendations in our HADA submission to the Public Utilities Commission docket item relating to HECO’s Roadmap to EV adoption, that utility sponsor eight $25,000 ride-n-drives (EV test drive offers from eight different manufacturers) at the upcoming 2019 First Hawaiian International Auto Show. Final Note: For next year, HADA dealers have proposed inviting the world’s automakers to send representatives to the 2019 HADA convention in Maui at the Fairmont Kea Lani October 10-13, 2019.
It’s never been easier to compare an EV with a gas vehicle WattPlan for Electric Vehicles is an interactive, online calculator you can use via desktop, laptop, tablet or smart phone to compare any make and model of plug-in electric vehicle with any internal combustion engine vehicle. It is also accessible at: www.hawaiianelectric.com/wattplanforEV. The online tool can help you: • Assess if an Electric Vehicle is right for you • Calculate possible savings based on your current electricity use and daily commute • Learn how much greenhouse gas (CO2) you can keep out of the atmosphere Download the free Hawaiian Electric Mobile App
Using Hawaiian Electric Company’s new mobile app you can also get outage information, report outages and get prompt alerts for O‘ahu customers who download.
www.hawaiianelectric.com/GoEV
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Hawaii’s Cost of Living is Already Too High; Dealerships Encourage Everyone to Vote “NO” on the Nov. 6th Ballot Amendment Surcharge Tax Many HADA dealerships will join businesses around the state who are passing out to their employees and others, 6 x 9 “ information cards asking to “Please vote NO” on the Nov. 6th ballot issue that seeks to create a surcharge (tax) that will increase the cost of rents, the cost of business and the cost of living in Hawaii. The card reads: “Aloha,
Please vote NO. Mahalo. (Note: the card informs that the message is paid for by the Affordable Hawaii Coalition PAC, 81 S. Hotel Street, Suite 300, Honolulu, HI 96813 info@afordablehousing. org/affordablehawaii.org)
Please join me in voting NO on a proposed constitution amendment that would authorize the legislature to create one of the largest tax increases in Hawaii’s history. The ballot question reads: “Shall the legislature be authorized to establish, as provided by law, a surcharge on investment real property to be used to support public education?” (Note: the card goes on to explain…) I’m voting NO because this amendment will: • Increase the cost of living for EVERYONE in Hawaii • Affect all investment properties— walk-up apartments, neighborhood shopping centers, farmlands, office buildings—regardless of value • Increase the cost to rent a house, apartment or condo • Increase costs for businesses, and result in higher prices for goods and services • Does not guarantee more money will reach classrooms and students. • Hawaii’s cost of living is already too high. 18
The new tax will raise the cost of living for EVERYONE in our state. Please vote NO.
17-CPB-0631 Hawaii Dealers Mag V2.indd 9/8/17 2:44 PM - 1 -
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Register for the 2018 HADA Convention on Kauai
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To register, go to www.hawaiiautodealer.com 20
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CoveringData Datathru thru June 2018 Covering June 2018
Hawaii Auto Outlook Outlook Hawaii Auto
Volume 17,17, Number Volume Number33
TM
™
Sponsored by: Dealers Association Sponsored by: Hawaii Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST FORECAST
State New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018
State New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018 Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the Hawaii new vehicle market:
8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Tesla, Land Rover, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Subaru
1. State new retail registrations declined a slim 1.6% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market fell by less than 1%.
9. State market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford and Chevrolet.
2. As shown on the graph below, the market has plateaued during the past several years, with sales remaining at elevated levels.
10. Top ten selling vehicles in state market: Toyota Tacoma, Toyota 4Runner, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic, Toyota RAV4, Nissan Rogue, Toyota Camry, Ford F-Series, Toyota Corolla, and Honda HR-V.
3. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 58,750 units, down slightly from 2017. 4. Light truck market share increased from 63.4% during the first six months of 2017 to 67.2% this year.
Market Outlook for next two years: New vehicle sales should remain above average; uncertainties increasing
5. Registrations for European brands were up 4% so far this year, while the overall market declined.
Strong economic growth, rising employment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pressures are concerns for the market.
6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 6.1% thru June of this year, up slightly from last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the state are Compact SUV, Compact/ Mid Size Pickup, and Compact Car.
Annual Trend in State Market
Market Summary
New light vehicle registrations
70,000 60,000 50,000
54039 48705
40,000 30,000
57094 58485 59137 58750
42463 32649
35576
20,000 10,000 0
22
TOTAL
YTD '17 thru June 29,740
YTD '18 % Chg. thru June '17 to '18 29,258 -1.6%
Mkt. Share YTD '18
Car Light Truck
10,893 18,847
9,603 19,655
-11.8% 4.3%
32.8% 67.2%
Domestic European Japanese Korean
6,340 2,782 18,683 1,935
6,283 2,892 18,219 1,864
-0.9% 4.0% -2.5% -3.7%
21.5% 9.9% 62.3% 6.4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast Historical Data Source: IHS Markit.
Source: IHS Markit.
The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2010 thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2018.
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT and Alfa), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases.
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Hawaii Auto Outlook Page Page Page222
Page 2 Hawaii Hawaii HawaiiAuto Auto AutoOutlook Outlook Outlook
MARKET MARKET MARKETTRACKER: TRACKER: TRACKER:SEGMENT SEGMENT SEGMENTSHARES SHARES SHARES MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENT SHARES
Non Luxury SUV Market Share Increases Non NonLuxury Luxury Luxury SUV SUV Market Market Share Share Increases Increases to to34% 34% 34% Non SUV Market Share Increases to 34% to Segment Segment SegmentMarket Market MarketShares Shares Sharesinin inState State State YTD 2017 thru June YTD YTD2017 2017thru thruJune June Luxury & Sports Luxury Luxury&&Sports Sports Cars, 6% Cars, Cars,6% 6% Non Luxury Md Non NonLuxury LuxuryMd Md Size & Large Cars, Size Size&&Large LargeCars, Cars, 8% 8% 8% Luxury SUVs, 7% Luxury LuxurySUVs, SUVs,7% 7%
Small Cars, 23% Small SmallCars, Cars,23% 23%
Segment Segment SegmentMarket Market MarketShares Shares Sharesinin inState State State YTD 2018 thru June YTD YTD2018 2018thru thruJune June Luxury & Sports Luxury Luxury&&Sports Sports Non Luxury Md Cars, 5% Non NonLuxury LuxuryMd Md Cars, Cars,5% 5% Size & Large Cars, Size Size&&Large LargeCars, Cars, 7% 7% 7%
Non Luxury SUVs, Non NonLuxury LuxurySUVs, SUVs, 31% 31% 31%
Non Luxury SUVs, Non NonLuxury LuxurySUVs, SUVs, 34% 34% 34%
Luxury SUVs, 8% Luxury LuxurySUVs, SUVs,8% 8%
Non Non NonLuxury Luxury LuxurySUV SUV SUV Market Share, YTD Market MarketShare, Share, YTD YTD‘17: ‘17: ‘17:
Non Non NonLuxury Luxury LuxurySUV SUV SUV Market Share, YTD Market MarketShare, Share, YTD YTD‘18: ‘18: ‘18:
31% 31%
Small Cars, 20% Small SmallCars, Cars,20% 20%
34% 34%
Pickups and Vans, Pickups Pickupsand andVans, Vans, 25% 25% 25%
Pickups and Vans, Pickups Pickupsand andVans, Vans, 26% 26% 26%
The The Thetwo two twographs graphs graphsabove above aboveshow show showmarket market marketshares shares sharesfor for forprimary primary primarysegments segments segmentsduring during duringthe the thefirst first firstsix six sixmonths months monthsofofof2017 2017 2017and and and2018. 2018. 2018.
MARKET TRACKER: STATE MARKET VERSUS U.S. MARKET MARKET MARKETTRACKER: TRACKER: TRACKER:STATE STATE STATEMARKET MARKET MARKETVERSUS VERSUS VERSUSU.S. U.S. U.S.
Hawaii and U.S. Markets Down Slightly Hawaii Hawaii Hawaiiand and andU.S. U.S. U.S.Markets Markets MarketsDown Down DownSlightly Slightly Slightly State Market State State Market Market
U.S. Market U.S. U.S. Market Market
-1.6% -1.6% -1.6%
-0.4% -0.4% -0.4%
Passenger car market share Passenger Passenger car car market market share share YTD '18 thru June YTD YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June
32.8% 32.8% 32.8%
32.0% 32.0% 32.0%
Domestic brand market share Domestic Domestic brand brand market market share share YTD '18 thru June YTD YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June
21.5% 21.5% 21.5%
41.9% 41.9% 41.9%
Percent change ininin registrations Percent Percent change change registrations registrations YTD '18 thru June vs. YTD '17 YTD YTD'18 '18thru thruJune Junevs. vs. YTD YTD '17 '17
Top 10 brands and market share Top Top 10 10 brands brands and and market market share share YTD '18 thru June YTD YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June First Toyota First First Toyota Toyota Second Honda Second Second Honda Honda Third Nissan Third Third Nissan Nissan Fourth Ford Fourth Fourth Ford Ford Fifth Chevrolet Fifth Fifth Chevrolet Chevrolet Sixth Kia Sixth Sixth Kia Kia Seventh Subaru Seventh Seventh Subaru Subaru Eighth Hyundai Eighth Eighth Hyundai Hyundai Ninth Lexus Ninth Ninth Lexus Lexus Tenth Mazda Tenth Tenth Mazda Mazda Source: IHS Markit Source: Source: IHS IHS Markit Markit
26.9% 26.9% 26.9% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Toyota Toyota Toyota Ford Ford Ford Chevrolet Chevrolet Chevrolet Honda Honda Honda Nissan Nissan Nissan Jeep Jeep Jeep Subaru Subaru Subaru Hyundai Hyundai Hyundai Kia Kia Kia GMC GMC GMC
13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Auto Auto AutoOutlook Outlook Outlook Covering Covering Coveringdata data datathru thru thruJune June June2018 2018 2018 Published for: Published Published for: for: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association Hawaii HawaiiAutomobile AutomobileDealers Dealers Association Association 1100 Alakea Street, Suite 2601 1100 1100Alakea AlakeaStreet, Street,Suite Suite 2601 2601 Honolulu, HIHIHI96813 Honolulu, Honolulu, 96813 96813 Phone: 808-593-0031 Phone: Phone: 808-593-0031 808-593-0031 Published by: Published Published by: by: Auto Outlook, Inc. Auto AutoOutlook, Outlook, Inc. Inc. PO Box 390 PO PO Box Box 390 390 Exton, PAPA Exton, Exton, PA19341 19341 19341 Phone: 800-206-0102 Phone: Phone:800-206-0102 800-206-0102 EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com EMail: EMail: jfoltz@autooutlook.com jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A.A.A. Foltz Editor: Editor: Jeffrey Jeffrey Foltz Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in Reproduction, Reproduction,including includingphotocopying photocopyingofofthis thispublication publicationininwhole wholeororinin part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. part, part,isisprohibited prohibitedwithout withoutthe theexpress expresspermission permissionofofAuto AutoOutlook, Outlook,Inc. Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to Hawaii Auto Outlook, pubAny Anymaterial materialquoted quotedmust mustbe beattributed attributedtotoHawaii HawaiiAuto AutoOutlook, Outlook,pubpublished by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers lished lishedbybyAuto AutoOutlook, Outlook,Inc. Inc.on onbehalf behalfofofthe theHawaii HawaiiAutomobile AutomobileDealers Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: “Data Source: IHS Association, Association,and andmust mustalso alsoinclude includethe thestatement: statement:“Data “DataSource: Source:IHS IHS Markit.” Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. ConMarkit. Markit. ” ”Unforeseen Unforeseen events events may may affect affect the the forecast forecast projections. projections.ConConsequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions sequently, sequently,Auto AutoOutlook Outlookisisnot notresponsible responsiblefor formanagement managementdecisions decisions based on the content of Hawaii Auto Outlook. based basedon onthe thecontent contentofofHawaii HawaiiAuto AutoOutlook. Outlook. Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., August 2018 Copyright CopyrightAuto AutoOutlook, Outlook,Inc., Inc.,August August2018 2018
25
Hawaii Auto Outlook Covering CoveringData Datathru thruJune June2018 2018
Page 3 Page Page33
BRANDSCOREBOARD SCOREBOARD BRAND BRAND SCOREBOARD
Registrations Increase by More Than 20% for Five Brands Registrations Registrations Increase Increase by by More More Than Than 20% 20% for for Five Five Brands Brands Five Fivebrands brandshad hadincreases increasesof ofgreater greaterthan than 20% 20%in inthe thefirst firsthalf halfof ofthis thisyear: year: Tesla, Tesla,Land LandRover, Rover,Volkswagen, Volkswagen,Volvo, Volvo,and andSubaru. Subaru.
The Thegraph graphbelow belowshows showsthe thechange changeininnew newretail retail light vehicle (combined car and light truck) light vehicle (combined car and light truck)regregistrations istrationsduring duringthe thefirst firsthalf halfofofthis thisyear yearversus versus aayear yearearlier. earlier.Data Datasource: source:IHS IHSMarkit. Markit.
10.0% 10.0%
Hyundai Hyundai Toyota Toyota
20.0% 20.0%
MINI MINI Lexus Lexus
30.0% 30.0%
Cadillac Cadillac Audi Audi GMC GMC
40.0% 40.0%
Subaru Subaru Chevrolet Chevrolet
50.0% 50.0%
Volkswagen Volkswagen Volvo Volvo
60.0% 60.0%
Tesla Tesla LandRover Rover Land
Percent PercentChange ChangeininState StateNew NewRetail RetailLight LightVehicle VehicleRegistrations Registrations(Top (Top30 30brands) brands)- -YTD YTD‘18 ‘18thru thruJune Junevs. vs.YTD YTD‘17 ‘17
-40.0% -40.0%
Acura Acura Jaguar Jaguar
Chrysler Chrysler Porsche Porsche
Ford Ford Buick Buick
Kia Kia BMW BMW
Mazda Mazda Dodge Dodge
-30.0% -30.0%
Jeep Jeep Ram Ram
-20.0% -20.0%
Infiniti Infiniti Nissan Nissan
-10.0% -10.0%
Mercedes Mercedes Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Honda Honda
0.0% 0.0%
COUNTY SCOREBOARD COUNTY COUNTY SCOREBOARD SCOREBOARD
Big Island Island Increases 6.3% 6.3% in First of Half 2018 Big Market Increases in First Big IslandMarket Market Increases 6.3% inHalf First Half of of 2018 2018 The The table table on on the the right right provides provides aa summary summaryofofeach eachofofHawaii’s Hawaii’sfour four retail retail light light vehicle vehicle markets. markets. The The table tableisisdivided dividedinto intofour foursections. sections. Market MarketSummary Summaryshows showstotal totalnew new retail retaillight lightvehicle vehicleregistrations registrationsdurduring ingthe thefirst firstsix sixmonths monthsofof2017 2017and and 2018 2018and andthe thepercent percentchange. change.The The second second and and third third sections sections show show Light LightTruck Truckand andDetroit DetroitThree Threemarmarket ketshare. share.The Thefourth fourthsection sectionshows shows market marketshare sharefigures figuresfor forthe thetop top10 10 selling selling light light vehicle vehicle brands brands inin the the state. state.The Thetop toprated ratedcounty countyinineach each category categoryisisshaded. shaded. The The Big Big Island Island had had the the highest highest increase, increase, up up 6.3%. 6.3%. Detroit Detroit Three Three market marketshare sharewas washighest highestininKauKauaiai (28.5%) (28.5%)and andlowest lowestininOahu Oahu (20.6%). (20.6%).
26
New NewVehicle VehicleMarkets MarketsSummary Summary Hawaii Kauai Hawaii Kauai
Market MarketSummary Summary YTD 3437 1414 YTD'17 '17thru thruJune June 3437 1414 YTD 3655 1469 YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June 3655 1469 Percent 6.3% 3.9% Percentchange change 6.3% 3.9% Light LightTruck TruckMarket MarketShare Share YTD 69.4% 72.4% YTD'17 '17thru thruJune June 69.4% 72.4% YTD 74.0% 77.3% YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June 74.0% 77.3% Change 4.6 4.9 Change(share (sharepoints) points) 4.6 4.9 Detroit DetroitThree ThreeMarket MarketShare Share YTD 18.9% 25.0% YTD'17 '17thru thruJune June 18.9% 25.0% YTD 21.5% 28.5% YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June 21.5% 28.5% Change 2.6 3.5 Change(share (sharepoints) points) 2.6 3.5 Market MarketShare Sharefor forTop Top10 10Selling SellingBrands BrandsininState State- -YTD YTD'18 '18thru thruJune June Toyota 32.7% 32.9% Toyota 32.7% 32.9% Honda 14.5% 12.1% Honda 14.5% 12.1% Nissan 11.1% 9.9% Nissan 11.1% 9.9% Ford 6.3% 11.6% Ford 6.3% 11.6% Chevrolet 6.7% 7.4% Chevrolet 6.7% 7.4% Kia 5.6% 6.0% Kia 5.6% 6.0% Subaru 6.1% 4.5% Subaru 6.1% 4.5% Hyundai 2.8% 2.2% Hyundai 2.8% 2.2% Lexus 0.4% 0.7% Lexus 0.4% 0.7% Mazda 1.2% 1.6% Mazda 1.2% 1.6%
Maui Maui
Oahu Oahu
3594 3594 3458 3458 -3.8% -3.8%
21295 21295 20676 20676 -2.9% -2.9%
68.6% 68.6% 74.6% 74.6% 6.0 6.0
60.9% 60.9% 64.0% 64.0% 3.1 3.1
23.0% 23.0% 23.4% 23.4% 0.4 0.4
21.2% 21.2% 20.6% 20.6% -0.5 -0.5
26.2% 26.2% 18.1% 18.1% 9.0% 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 5.8% 5.8% 3.7% 3.7% 5.3% 5.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.6%
25.6% 25.6% 14.9% 14.9% 9.4% 9.4% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%
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Hawaii Auto Outlook Page 4 Page 4
Page 4 Hawaii Auto Outlook Hawaii Auto Outlook Hawaii New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations
TOTAL Acura TOTAL Audi Acura BMW Audi Buick BMW Cadillac Buick Chevrolet Cadillac C/D/J/R ChevroletTotal ChryslerTotal C/D/J/R Dodge Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram Jeep FIAT Ram Ford FIAT GMC Ford Honda GMC Hyundai Honda Infiniti Hyundai Jaguar Infiniti Kia Jaguar Land Rover Kia Lexus Land Rover Lincoln Lexus Mazda Lincoln Mercedes Mazda MINI Mercedes Mitsubishi MINI Nissan Mitsubishi Other Nissan Porsche Other Subaru Porsche Tesla Subaru Toyota Tesla Volkswagen Toyota Volvo Volkswagen
Registrations 2Q '17 Registrations 2Q '18 14,629 14,799 2Q '17 2Q '18 14,629 219 14,799 176 122 139 219 176 381 322 122 139 90 79 381 322 47 51 90 79 751 888 47 51 887 854 751 888 77 64 887 854 209 246 77 64 404 364 209 246 197 180 404 364 28 23 197 180 970 952 28 23 179 203 970 952 2,379 2,233 179 203 407 461 2,379 2,233 93 82 407 461 31 21 93 82 551 524 31 21 38 70 551 524 414 379 38 70 9 10 414 379 375 407 9 10 342 298 375 407 90 86 342 298 35 36 90 86 1,462 1,398 35 36 35 27 1,462 1,398 59 50 35 27 410 592 59 50 97 169 410 592 3,914 3,954 97 169 183 266 3,914 3,954 31 49 183 266
Volvo
31
49
Second Quarter Hawaii New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Year-to-date thru June Registrations Year-to-date thru June Market Share (%) Second Quarter Market Share (%) % change 2Q '17Market Share 2Q '18(%) Change YTD '17 Registrations YTD '18 % change YTD '17 YTD '18 Market Share (%) Change 1.2 29,740 29,258 -1.6 % change 2Q '17 2Q '18 Change YTD '17 YTD '18 % change YTD '17 YTD '18 Change -19.6 1.2 1.5 1.2 -0.3 29,740 443 29,258 359 -19.0 -1.6 1.5 1.2 -0.3 13.9 0.8 0.9 0.1 277 304 9.7 0.9 1.0 0.1 -19.6 1.5 1.2 -0.3 443 359 -19.0 1.5 1.2 -0.3 -15.5 2.6 2.2 -0.4 748 674 -9.9 2.5 2.3 -0.2 13.9 0.8 0.9 0.1 277 304 9.7 0.9 1.0 0.1 -12.2 0.6 0.5 -0.1 164 142 -13.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -15.5 2.6 2.2 -0.4 748 674 -9.9 2.5 2.3 -0.2 8.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 90 100 11.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -12.2 0.6 0.5 -0.1 164 142 -13.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1 18.2 5.1 6.0 0.9 1,593 1,825 14.6 5.4 6.2 0.8 8.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 90 100 11.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -3.7 6.1 5.8 -0.3 1,745 1,578 -9.6 5.9 5.4 -0.5 18.2 5.1 6.0 0.9 1,593 1,825 14.6 5.4 6.2 0.8 -16.9 0.5 0.4 -0.1 155 134 -13.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -3.7 6.1 5.8 -0.3 1,745 1,578 -9.6 5.9 5.4 -0.5 17.7 1.4 1.7 0.3 454 405 -10.8 1.5 1.4 -0.1 -16.9 0.5 0.4 -0.1 155 134 -13.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -9.9 2.8 2.5 -0.3 749 687 -8.3 2.5 2.3 -0.2 17.7 1.4 1.7 0.3 454 405 -10.8 1.5 1.4 -0.1 -8.6 1.3 1.2 -0.1 387 352 -9.0 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -9.9 2.8 2.5 -0.3 749 687 -8.3 2.5 2.3 -0.2 -17.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 58 43 -25.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -8.6 1.3 1.2 -0.1 387 352 -9.0 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -1.9 6.6 6.4 -0.2 2,139 1,877 -12.2 7.2 6.4 -0.8 -17.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 58 43 -25.9 0.2 0.1 -0.1 13.4 1.2 1.4 0.2 392 426 8.7 1.3 1.5 0.2 -1.9 6.6 6.4 -0.2 2,139 1,877 -12.2 7.2 6.4 -0.8 -6.1 16.3 15.1 -1.2 4,719 4,418 -6.4 15.9 15.1 -0.8 13.4 1.2 1.4 0.2 392 426 8.7 1.3 1.5 0.2 13.3 2.8 3.1 0.3 766 798 4.2 2.6 2.7 0.1 -6.1 16.3 15.1 -1.2 4,719 4,418 -6.4 15.9 15.1 -0.8 -11.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 197 184 -6.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 13.3 2.8 3.1 0.3 766 798 4.2 2.6 2.7 0.1 -32.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 68 50 -26.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 -11.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 197 184 -6.6 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -4.9 3.8 3.5 -0.3 1,156 1,051 -9.1 3.9 3.6 -0.3 -32.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 68 50 -26.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 84.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 90 129 43.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 -4.9 3.8 3.5 -0.3 1,156 1,051 -9.1 3.9 3.6 -0.3 -8.5 2.8 2.6 -0.2 725 757 4.4 2.4 2.6 0.2 84.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 90 129 43.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13 28 115.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 -8.5 2.8 2.6 -0.2 725 757 4.4 2.4 2.6 0.2 8.5 2.6 2.8 0.2 809 727 -10.1 2.7 2.5 -0.2 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13 28 115.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 -12.9 2.3 2.0 -0.3 718 679 -5.4 2.4 2.3 -0.1 8.5 2.6 2.8 0.2 809 727 -10.1 2.7 2.5 -0.2 -4.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 176 186 5.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 -12.9 2.3 2.0 -0.3 718 679 -5.4 2.4 2.3 -0.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 69 65 -5.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 -4.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 176 186 5.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 -4.4 10.0 9.4 -0.6 3,035 2,795 -7.9 10.2 9.6 -0.6 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 69 65 -5.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 -22.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 81 108 33.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 -4.4 10.0 9.4 -0.6 3,035 2,795 -7.9 10.2 9.6 -0.6 -15.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 126 109 -13.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 -22.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 81 108 33.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 44.4 2.8 4.0 1.2 841 1,047 24.5 2.8 3.6 0.8 -15.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 126 109 -13.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 74.2 0.7 1.1 0.4 199 306 53.8 0.7 1.0 0.3 44.4 2.8 4.0 1.2 841 1,047 24.5 2.8 3.6 0.8 1.0 26.8 26.7 -0.1 7,845 7,867 0.3 26.4 26.9 0.5 74.2 0.7 1.1 0.4 199 306 53.8 0.7 1.0 0.3 45.4 1.3 1.8 0.5 402 552 37.3 1.4 1.9 0.5 1.0 26.8 26.7 -0.1 7,845 7,867 0.3 26.4 26.9 0.5 58.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 56 74 32.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 45.4 1.3 1.8 0.5 402 552 37.3 1.4 1.9 0.5 Source: 58.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 56 74 32.1 0.2 0.3IHS Markit. 0.1 Source: IHS Markit.
MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES MARKET VEHICLES MARKET TRACKER: TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Combined Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Share is 6.5% in 2Q ‘18 Combined Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Share isShare 6.5% inis2Q ‘18 in 2Q ‘18 Combined Hybrid/Electric Vehicle 6.5% Market Share Market Share
Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) 5.0%
New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations Top 10 New Retail Selling Hybrid Models and Electric in HawaiiVehicle - YTD '18 Registrations thru June
5.0% 4.0%
Top 10 Selling Models in Hawaii - YTD '18 thru JuneRegs. Rank Model
4.0% 3.0%
1 Rank
Toyota Model Prius
280 Regs.
21
Nissan Toyota Leaf Prius
224 280
32
Tesla NissanModel Leaf 3
133 224
43
Tesla Tesla Model Model X3
100 133
3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q2 15 Q2
Q3 15 Q3
Q4 15 Q4
Q1 16 Q1
Q2 16 Q2
15
15
15 16 Hybrid
16
Q3 16 Q3
Q4 16 Q4
Q1 17 Q1
16 16 17 Plug In Hybrid
54
Toyota Tesla Model RAV4 X
100 96
Q3 17 Q3
Q4 17 Q4
Q1 18 Q1
Q2 18 Q2
65
Tesla ToyotaModel RAV4S
73 96
76
Kia Tesla Niro Model S
70 73
17 17 Electric
17
18
18
87
Toyota Kia NiroCamry
61 70
Q2 17 Q2
Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Electric The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the state. Source: IHSabove Markit.shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the state. The graph
98
Hyundai Toyota Camry Ioniq
59 61
10 9
Chevrolet Hyundai Ioniq Silverado
59 59
10
Chevrolet Silverado
59
Source: IHS Markit.
29
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