The Official Publication of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association
2018 Summer Edition
The big “if” in tariff… See story pages 8, 9, and 10
Covering Data thru June 2018
Volume 17, Number 3
Hawaii Auto Outlook
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Sponsored by: Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association FORECAST
State New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018
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Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the Hawaii new vehicle market:
8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Tesla, Land Rover, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Subaru
1. State new retail registrations declined a slim 1.6% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market fell by less than 1%.
9. State market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford and Chevrolet.
2. As shown on the graph below, the market has plateaued during the past several years, with sales remaining at elevated levels.
10. Top ten selling vehicles in state market: Toyota Tacoma, Toyota 4Runner, Honda CR-V, Honda Civic, Toyota RAV4, Nissan Rogue, Toyota Camry, Ford F-Series, Toyota Corolla, and Honda HR-V.
3. Auto Outlook’s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 58,750 units, down slightly from 2017. 4. Light truck market share increased from 63.4% during the first six months of 2017 to 67.2% this year.
Market Outlook for next two years: New vehicle sales should remain above average; uncertainties increasing
5. Registrations for European brands were up 4% so far this year, while the overall market declined.
Strong economic growth, rising employment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pressures are concerns for the market.
6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 6.1% thru June of this year, up slightly from last year.
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7. Three biggest segments in the state are Compact SUV, Compact/ Mid Size Pickup, and Compact Car.
Also in this Edition... Annual Trend in State Market
Market Summary
The Big Bang for EV Uptake or Epic Pile-up? Global consulting firm AlixPartners predicts “a pile-up of epic proportions” but HADA proposes a solution. See pages 12, 13, and 14
New light vehicle registrations
70,000
YTD '17 thru June 29,740
60,000 50,000
54039
40,000 30,000
57094 58485 59137 58750
48705 42463 32649
35576
20,000 10,000 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecast
TOTAL
YTD '18 % Chg. thru June '17 to '18 29,258 -1.6%
Mkt. Share YTD '18
Car Light Truck
10,893 18,847
9,603 19,655
-11.8% 4.3%
32.8% 67.2%
Domestic European Japanese Korean
6,340 2,782 18,683 1,935
6,283 2,892 18,219 1,864
-0.9% 4.0% -2.5% -3.7%
21.5% 9.9% 62.3% 6.4%
Historical Data Source: IHS Markit.
Source: IHS Markit.
The graphSee above the shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2010 Hawaii Auto Outlook. thru 2017 and Auto Outlook’s projection for all of 2018.
Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT and Alfa), and Tesla. Historical figuresinformation were revised by IHS on Markitthe and will differ slightly from those See the shown in previous releases.
Nov. 6th ballot issue.
See pages 22, 25, 26, and 29
Please see page 18