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W

R EE E K L Y P O R T

05 MAY – 08 MAY 2015

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Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS  Rupee at four-month low, RBI may step in near 65/$ band.  China's yuan climbs to 5th most used currency in March.  Euro area unemployment rate at 11.3%.  Euro area annual inflation up to 0.0%.  Dollar briefly touches onemonth low vs yen.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

63.6075

63.8050

Indian Rupee continued to depreciate in this week also following previous week trend and faced stiff resistance of 64.0000.

Major reason for depreciation of Indian currency is month end demand of dollar from importers and outflow of greenback from Equity markets. Equity markets too tested the 3month low and made correction of more than 7% due to weak Q4 earnings. RBI is not intervening despite of weakened rupee as recent trade deficit data indicated weak Exports. Key events ahead are Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate and HSBC Manufacturing PMI on domestic front.

KEY RATES As on 30/04/2015 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)

63.5780

REPO RATE

7.50%

REVERSE REPO

6.50%

0.31

EURINR

68.8625

71.3025

3.54

GBPINR

96.1475

98.1825

2.11

CRR

4%

JPYINR

53.1950

53.6375

0.83

INFLATION

-2.33%

USDINR

USDINR last week also sustained on higher side after reversing from the lower trend line acting as strong support in the previous week. Now, it is near to the crucial level of 64.2000 closing above can further welcome the bulls. On the other hand, strong reversals might be seen below the level of 63.4500.

EURINR

EURINR last week had given the breakout of the double bottom pattern on daily charts as per our last report and closed above. Now, next crucial resistance seen above is 72.0000. On lower side, important support seen is 70.0000 and closing below which can again result in short term bearishness.

PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

63.4000

63.1000

62.8000

64.2000

64.5000

64.8000

EURINR

70.4000

69.6000

68.9000

71.9000

72.7000

73.2000

GBPINR

97.8000

97.2000

96.7000

99.0000

99.6000

100.2000

JPYINR

53.2000

52.7000

52.2000

54.0000

54.4000

54.9000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  US Unemployment claims at 262,000, a decrease of 34,000 from previous week.  Canada Gross domestic product unchanged in February (0.2% decline).  German jobless claims fall by less than expected.

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

US

Trade Balance

-

-35.4B

US

ADP Non Farm Employment Change

-

189k

US

Unemployment Claims

-

262K

US

Unemployment Rate

-

5.5%

6:00 05-MAY-2015 PM 05:45 06-MAY-2015 PM 6:00 07-MAY-2015 PM 6:00 08-MAY-2015 PM

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