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R EE E K L Y P O R T

19 OCT – 23 OCT 2015

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS  Rupee jumps 21 paise to end at 64.82 vs US Dollar.  Euro falls back after ECB's Ewald Nowotny threatens.  China's yuan inches up on weak dollar, firmer midpoint fix.  Dollar gains as December Fed rate hike still seen possible.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

64.9325

64.9375

Indian Rupee hovered in narrow range last week but closed flat as compared to previous week as continuous capital flows boosted the rupee sentiments due to selling pressure on dollar from Banks and Exporters. Strong Equity markets too supported the rupee to remain strong and mixed data of IIP (6.4%), CPI (4.41%) and WPI (-4.54%) in the last week did not affect much on the sentiments. Stronger than expected US Inflation data and ECB’s Policy maker Ewald Nowotny indications for Euro zone easing also helped the Rupee to be strong. Key event in coming week is Fed Chairperson’s Speech.

KEY RATES As on 16/10/2015 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)

64.9697

REPO RATE

6.75%

0.00

EURINR

73.8050

73.7400

-0.01

REVERSE REPO

5.75%

GBPINR

99.6200

100.3025

0.06

CRR

4%

JPYINR

53.9700

54.5375

0.10

INFLATION

-4.54%

USDINR

USDINR last week moved in narrow range as in first half of week, it gained a little but soon erased all gains in later half of week to close flat as compared to previous week. On daily charts, strong support is seen around the trend line acting as strong support i.e. around 64.5000 while resistance can be seen in the range of 65.4000-65.6000 for the week.

EURINR

EURINR last week remained volatile in the entire week but weakness on last two consecutive sessions in the counter made it to settle on a flat note. Now, on lower hand 73.2000 is seen as major support below which it may drag down while sustaining above 74.0000 mark can lead it towards strong zone.

PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

64.6000

64.2000

63.8000

65.4000

65.7000

66.1000

EURINR

73.2000

72.6000

71.9000

74.5000

75.0000

75.7000

GBPINR

99.7000

99.2000

98.6000

100.1000

101.6000

102.2000

JPYINR

54.2000

53.8000

53.4000

55.0000

55.5000

55.9000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment decreased by 10.2 pts compared to the previous month.  US Retail Sales Rise Less Than Forecast on Boost Savings.  US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 255,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week.

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

20-OCT-2015

6:00 PM

US

Building Permits

1.16m

1.17m

20-OCT-2015

8:30 PM

US

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

-

-

US

Unemployment Claims

266k

255k

US

Existing Home Sales

5.38m

5.31m

6:00 22-OCT-2015 PM 7:30 22-OCT-2015 PM

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