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R EE E K L Y P O R T
13 JUNE – 17 JUNE 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee gained for five consecutive sessions; ends the week strong. RBI maintains status quo on its key rates. Fed, Brexit caution cuts Asia FX weekly gains. China May CPI up 2.0 pct y/y, below forecasts.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
67.5475
66.9375
Indian Rupee appreciated in the previous week against the greenback and showed five day continuous up move while slightly weakened on Friday as traders seemed to be cautious ahead of key economic data in coming week from domestic as well as global markets. Previous week witnessed RBI Monetary Policy which kept the key rates unchanged concentrating on Inflation. In coming week, CPI is to be released on Monday while WPI is on Tuesday. On global front, US Fed Reserve officials will meet on 14-15 June to discuss policy. China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release the May data on industrial output on 13 June.
KEY RATES As on 10/06/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
66.7948
REPO RATE
6.50%
-0.90%
EURINR
75.3500
75.6825
0.44%
REVERSE REPO
6.00%
GBPINR
97.4200
96.5250
-0.91%
CRR
4%
JPYINR
62.0100
62.6225
0.98%
INFLATION
0.34%
USDINR
USDINR last week lost its shine as Rupee strengthened against the dollar since last five consecutive sessions as seen on daily charts and closed the week below 100 day EMA. Any closing and holding above 67.1000 can help the counter to extend gains while 66.5000 is seen as strong support for it.
EURINR
EURINR last week opened on strong note and near to the strong resistance levels on daily charts but it reversed gradually during the week. Now, 76.4000 will act as stiff resistance for the pair while further falling can find the immediate support is seen around the trend line i.e. in the range of 75.3000-75.1000.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
66.7000
66.3000
66.0000
67.3000
67.6000
68.0000
EURINR
75.3000
74.9000
74.5000
76.1000
76.4000
76.9000
GBPINR
95.9000
95.3000
94.7000
97.0000
97.4000
97.8000
JPYINR
62.1000
61.6000
61.0000
63.1000
63.5000
63.9000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES Dollar index drifts to fresh 4-week lows in last week. Swiss franc hits seven-week high on safe-haven flows. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 264,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week.
DATE
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
14-JUNE-16
06:00 PM
US
Core Retail Sales m/m
-
0.8%
15-JUNE-16
11:30 PM
US
FOMC Statement
-
-
US
Unemployment Claims
-
264k
US
Building Permits
-
1.12m
6:00 16-JUNE-16 PM 6:00 17-JUNE-16 AM
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