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R EE E K L Y P O R T
29 FEB– 04 MARCH 2016
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MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET EVENTS Rupee hits new 30-month low last week against US dollar. Asia FX slightly up as G20 talks start; weekly gains seen. New Zealand imports and exports both rise in January 2016. Japan's inflation falls back to zero in January.
CURRENCIES
USDINR
PREVIOUS
CURRENT
RATE
RATE
68.5500
69.0350
Indian Rupee traded on quite note for the first three trading sessions of the week but moved towards 30 month lows i.e. of August 2013 and finally closed weaker. On sustaining on such lower levels may be a jittering factor which can result in fresh lows of the Indian currency against Dollar. This weakness was due to fresh demand for the greenback from Importers and Banks on back of consecutive fall in domestic equities for three sessions. Railway Budget also marked for the volatility of the markets while in coming week Union Budget is the key trigger for the markets as well as Indian Rupee.
KEY RATES As on 26/02/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)
68.7775
REPO RATE
6.75%
0.70
EURINR
76.2000
76.0300
-0.22
REVERSE REPO
5.75%
GBPINR
98.4000
96.3100
-2.12
CRR
4%
JPYINR
60.1000
61.1400
1.73
INFLATION
-0.90%
USDINR
USDINR last week again continued the positive track against the greenback and closed near the all time highs. If it is able to sustain above 69.0000 then it may move towards those highs which it tested in Aug 2013. Any closing below 68.7000 can also result in certain correction while 69.5000 may act as major resistance.
EURINR
EURINR last week showed sideways to negative movement and closed the week in red. Further falling will find the support around 75.2000 near the trend line acting as support while it may face important resistance in the range of 76.8000-77.0000. Considering its previous movement, the counter may face selling pressure at higher levels.
PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES
S1
S2
S3
R1
R2
R3
USDINR
68.6000
68.0000
67.5000
69.5000
69.9000
70.3000
EURINR
75.6000
75.2000
74.8000
76.5000
77.0000
77.6000
GBPINR
95.9000
95.3000
94.7000
97.0000
97.6000
98.5000
JPYINR
60.5000
59.7000
58.8000
61.6000
62.0000
62.5000
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES CB Consumer Confidence Index Declined in February. Orders for U.S. Capital Goods Increase by Most since June 2014. US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 272,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week. DATE
TIME
01-MARCH-16
8:30 PM
02-MARCH-16
6:45 PM
COUNTRY
EVENT
BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS LEVEL
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
-
48.2
US
ADP Non Farm Employment Change
-
205k
US
Unemployment Claims
-
-
US
Trade Balance
-
-43.4B
7:00 03-MARCH-16 PM 7:00 04-MARCH-16 PM
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