Weekly forex market trends

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W

R EE E K L Y P O R T

29 FEB– 04 MARCH 2016

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS  Rupee hits new 30-month low last week against US dollar.  Asia FX slightly up as G20 talks start; weekly gains seen.  New Zealand imports and exports both rise in January 2016.  Japan's inflation falls back to zero in January.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

68.5500

69.0350

Indian Rupee traded on quite note for the first three trading sessions of the week but moved towards 30 month lows i.e. of August 2013 and finally closed weaker. On sustaining on such lower levels may be a jittering factor which can result in fresh lows of the Indian currency against Dollar. This weakness was due to fresh demand for the greenback from Importers and Banks on back of consecutive fall in domestic equities for three sessions.

Railway Budget also marked for the volatility of the markets while in coming week Union Budget is the key trigger for the markets as well as Indian Rupee.

KEY RATES As on 26/02/2016 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)

68.7775

REPO RATE

6.75%

0.70

EURINR

76.2000

76.0300

-0.22

REVERSE REPO

5.75%

GBPINR

98.4000

96.3100

-2.12

CRR

4%

JPYINR

60.1000

61.1400

1.73

INFLATION

-0.90%

USDINR

USDINR last week again continued the positive track against the greenback and closed near the all time highs. If it is able to sustain above 69.0000 then it may move towards those highs which it tested in Aug 2013. Any closing below 68.7000 can also result in certain correction while 69.5000 may act as major resistance.

EURINR

EURINR last week showed sideways to negative movement and closed the week in red. Further falling will find the support around 75.2000 near the trend line acting as support while it may face important resistance in the range of 76.8000-77.0000. Considering its previous movement, the counter may face selling pressure at higher levels.

PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

68.6000

68.0000

67.5000

69.5000

69.9000

70.3000

EURINR

75.6000

75.2000

74.8000

76.5000

77.0000

77.6000

GBPINR

95.9000

95.3000

94.7000

97.0000

97.6000

98.5000

JPYINR

60.5000

59.7000

58.8000

61.6000

62.0000

62.5000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  CB Consumer Confidence Index Declined in February.  Orders for U.S. Capital Goods Increase by Most since June 2014.  US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was 272,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week.

DATE

TIME

01-MARCH-16

8:30 PM

02-MARCH-16

6:45 PM

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

US

ISM Manufacturing PMI

-

48.2

US

ADP Non Farm Employment Change

-

205k

US

Unemployment Claims

-

-

US

Trade Balance

-

-43.4B

7:00 03-MARCH-16 PM 7:00 04-MARCH-16 PM

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