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R EE E K L Y P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals, 29 JUNE – 03 JULY 2015

Energy…

MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures are trading in a nervous manner ahead of weekend. Global markets are teetering amid a heavy sell off in Asian stocks as traders remain skeptical about the Greece debt fiasco. The yellow metal has been tamed this week after crashing under $1200per ounce as strength in dollar and tepid retail buying in India hurt sentiments. The counter is quoting at $1174 per ounce right now, up 0.19% on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 26488 per 10 grams, almost unchanged on the day. MCX Silver futures are trading at Rs 35980 per kg, down 0.35% on the day.

Greece’s talks with its creditors are still the talking point for the globalmarkets.

European leaders have put off until the weekend talks to seal a bailout dealafter cutting short talks yesterday to give negotiators more time to settle differences.This is weighing on the sentiments and world equities are a facing a heavy sell off.Stocks in China were hurt severely today, crashing around 7.5% on the day. Stocks inEurope are also in red and the US dollar is holding around 1.1200 mark against the Euro.Meanwhile, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan has asked central banks from across the world todefine new rules of the game as he warned that the global economy may be slipping intoproblems similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Crude oil may move in range amid mixed fundamentals as EIA inventory data today will give further direction to the prices. Overall it can move in range of 3800-3900 in MCX, as per SMC Global report. MCX Crude Oil June contract was trading up by 0.21 per cent to 3857 levels on Wednesday(11.57am).U.S. crude prices rose on Tuesday as a tropical storm moved ashore in the oil-producing state of Texas, but global oversupply limited gains and pressured Brent futures. Gasoline stocks are expected to be down 300,000 barrels.

A crude oil drop would be a seventh consecutive draw recorded by the government, with the next Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Tropical Storm Bill went ashore on the Texas Gulf Coast and is expected to bring heavy rains and strong winds. Last year, active oil rigs were at 1,536. This means the current oil rigs are 59% lower than the levels last year. OPEC's (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) largest crude oil producer is Saudi Arabia. It continued to produce more than 10 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May 2015.

US consumer spending recorded its largest increase in nearly six years in May, further evidence that economic growth was accelerating in the second quarter. Three-month copper on the LME closed up 0.5 per cent at $5770 a tonne, recovering from a low of $5692. Prices have been on a downtrend since mid-May, hitting a three-month low on Monday, mostly on worries over lackluster Chinese demand and a summer slowdown.

Meanwhile, in COMEX, Copper prices July expiry contract was trading at $ 2.62 per pound, up 0.03 pounds. Antofagasta on the other hand announced establishing a project committee. Antofagasta plc announced that the Board has established a Projects Committee and has changed the composition of the Audit and Risk Committee. Antofagasta is committed to growing its copper mining business in Chile and beyond, in a sustainable and responsible manner that ensures it retains its social licence to operate.

The new Projects Committee adds an important level of governance and responsibility for all the Company's projects under development, and will play a vital role in providing the Board with additional oversight of Antofagasta's projects portfolio, proposals, milestones and key indicators and is in line with the approach to projects that the Company is implementing.

Gold Cautious Ahead Of Weekend, Silver Stalls Under 36K.

MCX Crude Oil may move in range amid mixed fundamentals.

Copper Supported, US Consumer Spending Records Largest Increase in Six Years.

ECONOMIC CALENDER DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

June 29 7:30pm

Pending Home Sales m/m

1.3%

3.4%

June 30 6:30pm

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

5.3%

5.0%

7:15pm

Chicago PMI

50.2

46.2

7:30pm

CB Consumer Confidence

97.1

95.4

July 01 5:00pm

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

5:45pm

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

216K

201K

7:15pm

Final Manufacturing PMI

53.4

53.4

7:30pm

ISM Manufacturing PMI

53.2

52.8

7:30pm

Construction Spending m/m

0.6%

2.2%

7:30pm

ISM Manufacturing Prices

52.1

49.5

8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

All Day

Total Vehicle Sales

17.2M

17.8M

July 02 6:00pm

Non-Farm Employment Change

231K

280K

6:00pm

Unemployment Rate

5.4%

5.5%

6:00pm

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.2%

0.3%

6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

270K

271K

7:30pm

Factory Orders m/m

-0.5%

-0.4%

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

-22.5%

-4.9M

75B

GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW MCX GOLD showed downward movement, and broke the trendline on lower side and found the crucial support of 26400. Now, if it is able to sustain below 26350 then next major support level is seen in the range of 26000-25500. On other hand if some correction happen then 26800 will act as important resistance level, maintaining above pull it towards the next resistance level of 27250.

PIVOT TABLE STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 26350 for the targets of 2600025800 with stop loss of 26850.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

26385

26135

25900

26740

27025

27325

SILVER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX SILVER on daily charts showed bearish movement and broke the important support of 35500 but not able to closed below it. Now, if it sustain below 35400 then next support range may seen at 34900-33500. On higher side maintaing above 37500 will again pull it towards the resistance level of 38500.

STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 35400 for the targets of 34400-33500, with stop loss of 37500.

PIVOT TABLE S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

35400

34525

33490

36450

37500

38550

CRUDEOIL TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways movement some strength on higher side seen but found resistance around 4000 and again drag to its support level of 3750. Now, if it maintains above 4000 in coming sessions then next important resistance level is seen around 4200.

On the other hand sustaining below 3750 will again drag it towards support level of 3625.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 3750 for the targets of 36253500, with stop loss of 4000.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

3715

3570

3425

3880

4000

4215

COPPER TECHNICAL VIEW MCX Copper last week showed sideways to bullish movement and showed some correction on higher side after took the important support of 357 last week. Now, if it maintain above 377 on higher side then next important resistance level is seen around 391. On the other hand if bearishness continue and sustain below 364 then again 357 will act as major support level.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 364, with stop loss of 376 for the target of 354.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

365.35

357.30

348

375.50

384.20

394

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