Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative, plausible, and data-rich accounts of how relevant external forces such as the future political environment, scientific and technological developments, social dynamics, and economic conditions might interact and evolve, providing our organizations with different challenges and opportunities (GrantSpace, 2019). Scenario planning enables to prepare for various situations of different probabilities. A basic question of ‘what if?’ is used to determine the best and the worst-case scenarios. Potential challenges and probable situations help planners to gauge and identify various possibilities. We used this process of forecasting to address potential risks for disaster mitigation. To understand the spectrum of our case hypothesis, we followed the following steps to determine two polarized scenarios for indicators: 1. Identify the key indicators: Including all the factors that contribute to our case and which are likely to change in the span of a decade. 2. Determine possible outcomes: Identifying potential impacts in possible future environments. Both best and worst-case scenarios helped cover the polarized ends of the spectrum. 3. Develop and analyse scenarios:
Table 1: Best and worse-case scenario on Bakklandet.
Our team covered possible social, economic and structural indicators and chose the ones best suited for our case. This further formed the basis of the response strategy. Page 18 of 36
