Table 17: Three-point estimation calculation table

Table 17: Three-point estimation calculation table

Risk Contingency Item Code Best case(a) Most Likely(m) Worst Case(b)

P(x) Probability of risk contingency Expected Value =P(x)*(a+4m+b)/6 SD=(b-a)/6 Z-Score CL-P90 CL-P90 Cost Value First Simulation

1.1.1 $100,000.00 $150,000.00 $210,000.00 35% $53,083.33 $18,333.33 1.28 $76,550.00 $67,548.93 1.1.2 $155,000.00 $225,000.00 $315,000.00 40% $91,333.33 $26,666.67 1.28 $125,466.67 $45,861.74 1.1.3 $545,789.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,789,056.00 80% $844,646.00 $207,211.17 1.28 $1,109,876.29 $759,100.63 1.1.4 $103,234.00 $150,000.00 $228,000.00 50% $77,602.83 $20,794.33 1.28 $104,219.58 $87,613.06 1.1.5 $120,000.00 $150,000.00 $200,000.00 50% $76,666.67 $13,333.33 1.28 $93,733.33 $76,353.34 1.2.1 $200,000.00 $250,000.00 $320,000.00 55% $139,333.33 $20,000.00 1.28 $164,933.33 $110,131.55 1.2.2 $310,000.00 $400,000.00 $491,000.00 68% $272,113.33 $30,166.67 1.28 $310,726.67 $295,853.55 1.2.3 $380,000.00 $450,000.00 $540,000.00 75% $340,000.00 $26,666.67 1.28 $374,133.33 $317,857.58 1.2.4 $400,000.00 $450,000.00 $522,987.00 75% $340,373.38 $20,497.83 1.28 $366,610.60 $370,016.09 1.2.5 $189,076.00 $250,000.00 $329,876.00 78% $197,463.76 $23,466.67 1.28 $227,501.09 $212,200.12 1.2.6 $987,475.00 $1,500,000.00 $2,239,876.00 75% $1,153,418.88 $208,733.50 1.28 $1,420,597.76 $1,158,435.18 1.2.7 $410,876.00 $450,000.00 $509,876.00 65% $294,748.13 $16,500.00 1.28 $315,868.13 $280,778.26 1.2.8 $2,439,987.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,876,903.00 65% $1,984,329.75 $239,486.00 1.28 $2,290,871.83 $2,312,555.62 1.2.9 $234,587.00 $300,000.00 $367,356.00 85% $255,275.26 $22,128.17 1.28 $283,599.31 $221,562.28 1.2.10 $119,837.00 $150,000.00 $218,395.00 23% $35,965.56 $16,426.33 1.28 $56,991.27 $53,421.12 1.2.11 $67,983.00 $75,000.00 $84,321.00 20% $15,076.80 $2,723.00 1.28 $18,562.24 $13,926.89 1.2.12 $66,463.00 $75,000.00 $85,000.00 30% $22,573.15 $3,089.50 1.28 $26,527.71 $20,965.54 1.3.1 $5,287,094.00 $6,000,000.00 $6,987,312.00 85% $5,138,874.18 $283,369.67 1.28 $5,501,587.36 $5,272,122.14 1.3.2 $7,000,000.00 $7,500,000.00 $8,000,000.00 75% $5,625,000.00 $166,666.67 1.28 $5,838,333.33 $5,479,364.47 1.3.3 $1,123,008.00 $1,500,000.00 $1,923,809.00 45% $678,511.28 $133,466.83 1.28 $849,348.82 $620,882.97 1.3.4 $990,808.00 $1,000,000.00 $2,103,020.00 70% $827,613.27 $185,368.67 1.28 $1,064,885.16 $850,549.71 1.3.5 $33,093,874.00 $40,000,000.00 $48,756,909.00 58% $23,378,909.02 $2,610,505.83 1.28 $26,720,356.49 $20,580,326.45 1.3.6 $6,095,493.00 $13,050,000.00 $22,102,000.00 85% $11,389,644.84 $2,667,751.17 1.28 $14,804,366.34 $11,215,741.74 1.3.7 $683,908.00 $750,000.00 $834,099.00 45% $338,850.53 $25,031.83 1.28 $370,891.27 $328,133.54 1.3.8 $46,012,321.00 $54,000,000.00 $61,092,011.00 80% $43,080,577.60 $2,513,281.67 1.28 $46,297,578.13 $43,425,584.62 1.3.9 $6,654,000.00 $7,500,000.00 $8,502,134.00 70% $5,268,215.63 $308,022.33 1.28 $5,662,484.22 $5,115,182.79 1.3.10 $51,879,201.00 $60,000,000.00 $68,991,234.00 65% $39,094,297.13 $2,852,005.50 1.28 $42,744,864.17 $38,639,015.45 1.3.11 $120,300,445.00$187,500,000.00$258,907,345.00 65% $122,330,843.92$23,101,150.00 1.28$151,900,315.92$160,485,471.74 1.3.12 $73,098,000.00 $80,000,000.00 $86,785,098.00 65% $51,987,335.62 $2,281,183.00 1.28 $54,907,249.86 $49,021,258.95 1.3.13 $3,208,432.00 $10,500,000.00 $17,490,045.00 70% $7,314,822.32 $2,380,268.83 1.28 $10,361,566.42 $5,703,735.52 1.3.14 $9,764,024.00 $12,000,000.00 $16,342,090.00 69% $8,522,203.11 $1,096,344.33 1.28 $9,925,523.86 $7,398,592.92 1.3.15 $22,980,456.00 $25,000,000.00 $28,974,234.00 55% $13,929,179.92 $998,963.00 1.28 $15,207,852.56 $12,872,947.74 1.4.1 $700,000.00 $750,000.00 $792,543.00 40% $299,502.87 $15,423.83 1.28 $319,245.37 $304,736.78 1.4.2 $435,987.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,759,354.00 65% $671,161.94 $220,561.17 1.28 $953,480.24 $904,886.07 1.4.3 $138,900.00 $1,800,000.00 $2,478,050.00 80% $1,308,926.67 $389,858.33 1.28 $1,807,945.33 $1,926,335.27 1.4.4 $1,245,988.00 $1,800,000.00 $2,346,987.00 24% $431,719.00 $183,499.83 1.28 $666,598.79 $690,905.67 1.4.5 $120,000.00 $200,000.00 $300,000.00 20% $40,666.67 $30,000.00 1.28 $79,066.67 $43,012.20 1.5.1 $173,098.00 $225,000.00 $286,012.00 59% $133,645.82 $18,819.00 1.28 $157,734.14 $144,954.62 1.5.2 $3,498,000.00 $4,000,000.00 $4,454,093.00 86% $3,433,133.33 $159,348.83 1.28 $3,637,099.84 $3,191,268.80 1.5.3 $2,254,098.00 $3,000,000.00 $3,682,012.00 49% $1,464,782.32 $237,985.67 1.28 $1,769,403.97 $1,355,415.65

When the three-point estimate is achieved and required variables (expected value & standard deviation) are obtained, this probabilistic approach Monte Carlo Simulation will be conducted. Accordingly, this simulation will be conducted by using a computer generally. This report performs 10000 runs of MCS.

8.4.2.2 Real Simulation by Computer for Total Risk Contingency Estimation

By applying Excel @ Risk 8, the performing of Monte Carlo Simulation for 10,000 realisations being set as the number of repeated simulation runs can be automatically achieved.

Then the statistics table and the curve of probability distribution of the total risk contingency estimation of Sydney Metro Southwest project is obtained in table 18, figure 42 and 43, accordingly.