The Energy Issue

ENERGYMagazine Utblick. Magazine Utblick ENERGY

Utblick Staff

Editors-in-Chief

Guer y Ma ra ñón A l a rcón Guery Marañón Alarcón

Lau r i n Z i l s Laurin Zils

Legally Responsible Publisher

Guer y Ma ra ñón A l a rcón Guery Marañón Alarcón

Ed itor s Editors

Sa br i na F reu nd l ieb Sabrina Freundlieb

E m ma Hec k Emma Heck

Sa h it h i K a napa l a Sahithi Kanapala

Joha n nes Ma l mg ren Johannes Malmgren

Lu na Z hao Luna Zhao

Feat u red Wr iter s Featured Writers

Ad r i a na A br i l Or t i z Adriana Abril Ortiz

T i lde Berg s t röm Tilde Bergström

A n ita K a k sr ud Anita Kaksrud

Moltas K a rl s son Karlsson

Dom i n iq ue Kei zer Dominique Keizer

A xèle Ma i l l a rd A r r icot Axèle Maillard Arricot

Nata l i a Ol s son Or io Natalia Olsson Orio

I l lu st rator a nd Graph ic Desig ner Illustrator and Graphic Designer

Sel ma Sasiva rev ic @sel masasiva rev ic Selma Sasivarevic @selmasasivarevic

E m ma Hec k Emma Heck

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SIDA/ForumCiv do not necessarily share the opinions found in the maga z i ne. T he respon si bi l it y for t he content rest s f u l ly on t he w r it- magazine. The responsibility for the content rests fully on the writer.

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T h i s i s t he fi r s t i ssue of Ut bl ic k of t he academ ic yea r 22/23 This is the rst issue of Utblick of the academic year 22/23

Editor’s letter

by Guery Marañón Alarcón & Laurin Zils - p 4

(Un)Just Energy Transition - Decarbonization at whose Expense?

by Adriana Abril & Ismael Izquierdo - p 7-9

Powered by Trees - Exploring the sustainability of biomass energy

by Tilde Bergström - p 10- 13

Energy Dilemmas - Energy security, the environment, and indigenous rights

by Anita Kaksrud - p 14-17

Petroleum: a Blessing or a curse?

by Moltas Karlsson - p 18-23

How the energy crisis is unfolding the deep-rooted biases

by Dominique Keizer - p

24-27

The securitization of energy in the light of the energy crisis: a CFSP concern?

by Axèle Maillard Arricot - p 28-31

Merit Order Effect

by Natalia Olsson Orio - p 32-34

Editor's let ter letter

You are holding the newest issue of Utblick Magazine in you r hands. In this issue, we explore

You are holding the newest issue of Utblick Magazine in your hands. In this issue, we explore the topic of energ y, one of the cr ucial factors in fluencing world politics and essential to protect- the topic of energy, one of the crucial factors in uencing world and essential to protecting the environ ment. ing the environment.

T he political issues su r rou nding energ y continue to expand along with the global energ y The issues surrounding energy continue to expand along with the energy demand Energ y is a subject that can not be ig nored, f rom the ongoing cr isis in U k raine to the demand. Energy is a that cannot be ignored, from the ongoing crisis in Ukraine to the vit al necessit y of combat ting climate change vital necessity of combatting climate change.

We are pleased to provide a selection of ar ticles by seven of ou r t alented and com mit ted st aff

We are to provide a selection of articles seven of our talented and committed sta w r iters and one g uest w r iter in this issue, each of whom br ings something u nique to the dis- writers and one guest writer in this issue, each of whom brings something unique to the discussion We are t aken on a histor ical tou r of the use of fossil f uels by Ad r iana Abr il and Ismael cussion. We are taken on a historical tour of the use of fossil fuels Adriana Abril and Ismael Izquierdo, who also emphasize the expenses associated with energ y development. By examin- who also emphasize the expenses associated with energy examining the potential of biomass energ y, Tilde Bergst röm looks at whether the world is becoming ing the of biomass energy, Tilde Bergström looks at whether the world is becoming more environ ment ally f r iendly in light of climate change. A nit a Tvedt Kaksr ud investigates the more environmentally friendly in of climate Anita Tvedt Kaksrud investigates the problems with f rack ing's impact on hu man r ights, paying par ticular at tention to the exper ienc- problems with fracking's impact on human rights, paying particular attention to the experiences of the Mapuche and Sami populations in A rgentina and Nor way, respectively. Concer ning es of the Mapuche and Sami populations in Argentina and Norway, Concerning pet roleu m, Molt as Karlsson looks into the con nection bet ween democracy and macroeconomic petroleum, Moltas Karlsson looks into the connection between and macroeconomic prosper it y T he energ y cr isis is not hu r ting ever yone equally, as Dominique Keizer reveals, but prosperity. The energy crisis is not hurting everyone as Dominique Keizer but is instead "u nfolding the deep -rooted biases " T he success of the EU's Com mon Foreig n and is instead "unfolding the deep-rooted biases." The success of the EU's Common Foreign and Secu r it y Policy (CFSP) so far is thoroughly examined by A xèle Maillard A r r icot Last but not Security so far is thoroughly examined by Axèle Maillard Arricot. Last but not least, Nat alia Olsson explores the Mer it Order Effect and how it relates to the goal of renewable least, Natalia Olsson the Merit Order E ect and how it relates to the of renewable energ y energy.

We want to express ou r sincere appreciation to ou r hard-work ing st aff w r iters and editors for We want to express our sincere to our hard-working sta writers their com mit ment to ou r project. Additionally, we would li ke to ack nowledge the cont r ibutions their commitment to our Additionally, we would like to acknowledge the contributions and suppor t of the Societ y of Inter national A ffairs in Gothenbu rg ( Ut r i kespolitiska f öreningen and support of the Society of International A airs in Gothenburg (Utrikespolitiska föreningen I Göteborg). As readers, we hope you will appreciate ou r work as w r iters with a passion for I As readers, we you will appreciate our work as writers with a for inter national relations. Fu r ther more, we invite you to consider joining ou r team in the f ut u re. international relations. Furthermore, we invite you to consider joining our team in the future. But for now, t ake a seat back, u nwind, and allow ou r publication to give you the power to thin k But for now, take a seat back, unwind, and allow our to you the power to think about the world's energ y issues. about the world's energy issues.

Image by Bruno Figueiredo on Unsplash

Image by Chris LeBoutillier on Unsplash

(Un)Just Energy Transition Decarbonization at whose Expense?

By Ismael Izquierdo and Adriana Abril

The Agenda 2030, the Paris Agreement, and the Net-Zero emissions 2050 stress the relevance of achieving clean and affordable energy for all while reducing carbon emissions. Despite that, hundreds of millions of people in the least-developed countries in the African region still lack access to electricity. In contrast, the energy use per person increases steadily in high-income regions so that an average person in Iceland, Canada, or the United States consumes in one month what an Indian does in two years, 14 months, and one year respectively. Even if those three high-income countries strongly depend on heating due to winter, India needs energy for cooling and air conditioning. This example illustrates the huge inequalities at the foundation of our current energy systems.

A feminist approach to energy systems intends to uncover those asymmetries in the benefits and harms of a just and equal energy transition. Bell, Dagget, and Labuski, a group of researchers from Virginia Tech in the US, invite us to reflect on how “[...] energy-intensive lifestyles were and are made possible by the underdevelopment of the Global South, and by violence enacted upon marginalized communities and ecosystems”.

Renewables like solar and wind rely heavily on extracting critical minerals from countries of the Global South. Hydroelectric dams can cause human displacement, environmental degradation and negatively affect the livelihoods of local communities. A profit-driven growth can overshadow the geopolitical and systemic inequalities at the foundation of this “green deal.” Besides an issue of technology and financial investment, the path towards just energy systems requires questioning what is at the center of the discussion: is it people and biodiversity or profit and unsustainable economic growth?

Warming up for the discussion: energy in a nutshell

What is energy? It is the capacity to do some work, e.g., heating your tea, cooling your house or apartment, charging your phone, or, simpler than that, just dancing. We learn that “energy can neither be created nor destroyed - only converted from one form of energy to another”: the law of conservation of energy. But what is the trick with this law? Well, it is hidden in the energy source because some are more efficient in transforming from one form of energy to another. Therefore, depending on the context, i.e., geography, weather, and resource availability, some sources and their respective harness technology can be preferred over others. It is clear that it is impossible to build hydroelectric projects everywhere, cover the world with solar panels and wind turbines, or depend totally on fossil fuels.

Besides, to plan and deploy energy projects in conflict zones or natural diverse areas, proper consultation with indigenous peoples and local communities play a fundamental role. The case of the French company Électricité de France (EDF) shows the legal battles behind installing an industrial-scale wind farm project in the southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, where there has been an escalation of conflicts and the criminalization of human rights defenders advocating for the right to a free, prior and informed consent of indigenous peoples. Beyond being only a question of the right technology, evaluating energy projects' social and environmental consequences requires politicizing the energy conservation law.

tention due to the ambitious goals for decarbonizing energy and net-zero emissions by 2050. Today, the energy mix is dominated 84% by fossil fuels, i.e., oil, coal, and gas, the large drivers of climate change and air pollution. They cause three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. The other 16% of the energy mix are low-carbon sources, divided into 4% nuclear energy and 11% in, among others, hydropower, wind, and solar. However, the increase in low-carbon sources still needs to be competitive with the vast percentage of fossil fuels. Also, considering that in the 90s, the energy mix already counted with 13.5% low-carbon sources, and almost three decades later, these sources have increased by less than 2.5%. The shift to low-carbon energy alternatives appears to be slower than expected.

What about energy history?: a history of (eco) modernization

Before the Industrial Revolution, wood and dried manure were the energy sources to heat homes and cook food. Once the shortage of firewood and charcoal was evident, the first energy transition occurred, coal. It was adopted rapidly for heating and cooking and in steam engines representing a milestone for the industrial revolution (~1850). Half a century later, a new transition occurred, oil. Similarly, natural gas entered the game with applications at the household level. In this fashion, gas and electricity pushed coal out of the home heating market, and oil flourished as the primary energy source for transportation. In the 1960s, nuclear energy entered the stage as part of the energy mix. Two decades later, the most recent transition occurred in the arena of renewables, being hydropower, solar, and wind energies as the most famous. These have caught global at-

Before continuing, history was not apolitical but attached to a social and geographical context. According to the mainstream discourse, fossil fuels, first coal, then oil and natural gas, allowed economic growth and modernization in Europe. This uncovered the colonial past and the unequal exchange in global value chains. Now the discourse focuses on decreasing energy consumption or using “new forms of energy” in western Europe to decarbonize the economy. On the other hand, the position of the African Union regarding energy transition is clear in the sense that natural gas and nuclear energy, among others, will play a key role in bringing modernization, while renewables only in the long term are an option for a climate-resilient future. It seems that modernization and economic growth are at the core of the discussions.

Is there a future away from fossil fuels?

The history of energy demonstrates that “not always” modernization implies economic growth and prosperity for all. A just energy transition requires time, resources, and communal democratic energy systems. Switching to renewables requires access to natural resources (sometimes scarce elements), infrastructure for delivery and storage, and sound end-of-life treatments (e.g., reuse, recycle). From a climate change and efficiency perspective, the transition to renewables is worth it. Burning fossil fuels are the major cause of air pollution and climate change, and at the same time, when combusted, between 60 to 67% of the energy is lost as heat.

On the other hand, we cannot be blind to the challenges. Renewables such as solar and wind depend highly on metals, which is why they are often called “mineral-intensive clean energies.” Most of these metals are exploited in specific areas of the world. For instance, copper, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, and lithium, are mainly obtained from Chile, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), China, and Australia, respectively. But, then, most of them are processed in China.

Unfortunately, mining these metals entail social and environmental issues: the initi-ative Transition Minerals Tracker has identified 495 allegations of human rights abuse from 2010 to 2021, mainly attacks against human rights defenders, indigenous peoples, and water pollution.

For instance, cobalt extraction in the DRC has been related to corruption, environmental pollution, child labor, and financing of armed groups.

Hydrological power is also contested in many geographies, from Honduras, where the indigenous Lenca people risk their lives to defend their intrinsic link with their territories (see the case of Bertha Cáceres, murdered at her home for her leadership role in the community), to massive dams in Cambodia, part of the Chinese government’s “Belt and Road Initiative” for investment in building infrastructure, where thousands of people have been displaced without access to proper consultation and reparation. Now more than ever, it is essential to keep in mind: decarbonization at whose expense?

Image by Rochak Shukla on Freepik

Powered by Trees

Exploring the sustainability of biomass energy

By Tilde Bergström

The latest report from IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, declares renewable energy as one of the most important measurements in order to tackle global warming. One of those renewable sources is energy produced by biomass. The benefit of biomass energy is however a contested topic in the scientific world. While some deem it essential in the fight against climate change, others warn that the burning of biomass might do more harm than good.

Biomass energy is the oldest form of energy used by humans, ever since our ancestors were burning wood to cook food and keep warm. Today biopower accounts for about three-quarters of the world's renewable energy according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Biomass is an organic material, and its use for energy can be broadly divided into two main categories. One is organics grown with the purpose of transforming them into energy.

The other is residues from organic material, which can entail farm waste, municipal waste, and woody residues from the forest industry. There are then numerous different ways to convert biomass, or feedstocks as they are called, into heat and electricity. Biopower is not to be confused with biofuels, which are ethanol and diesel made from plants such as sugarcane and corn.

A statistical report published in 2020 by the World Bioenergy Association (WBA) shows that wood is the most common biomass feedstock for producing heat and electricity. The energy is most often generated by burning it in large industrial power plants. It can also be co-fired together with fossil fuels in order to reduce climate impact. Since wood has a fairly low density and contains moisture, it is getting increasingly popular to convert wood into pellets before burning. Wood pellets are small cylinders made from compacted sawdust. The WBA states wood pellets as one of the fastest-growing sectors within the bioenergy industry, with an annual growth rate of more than 11% since 2013.

The making of a renewable energy sourc

The status of biomass as a clean and renewable energy source could be traced back to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement led by the United Nations to target greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. In the protocol biomass burning is equivalent to solar and wind power in terms of carbon emissions. This is based on the assumption that any CO2 emissions released by burning biomass will be absorbed again as trees are replanted. This view on biomass energy was then adopted by the EU, legislating biomass as a carbon-neutral energy source in the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive. The directive also bound member states to have 20% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020. This sparked a boom in the demand for woody biomass, and according to the European Commission biomass was responsible for 60% of the EU’s renewable energy in 2019.

In order to fulfill renewable energy quotas, the biomass industry has been heavily subsidized. The largest biomass power plant in the world, Drax, is located in the UK. According to the Guardian, Drax received about 2,1 million pounds a day from the British Government in 2019 to fund the burning of biomass. Drax imports all of its wood pellets, and about 80% comes from North America. US-based company Enviva, which owns and operates ten plants in America, is the largest wood pellet manufacturer in the world. The UK, and Drax, is one of Envivas biggest customers. Earlier this year

Enviva announced plans to double their production by 2026, building six new pellet mills and increasing the yearly output from 6,2 million tons to 13 million tons.

Sustainable… or?

If biomass energy is an alternative to fossil fuels that even helps offset carbon, then why are some scientists raising concerns? Forests are vital ecosystems for our planet's health. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) explains that forests have the capacity to remove carbon from the atmosphere, storing it in wood, plants, and soil. When trees get logged, that carbon is then released again, increasing our climate impact. Deforestation is responsible for about 11% of our carbon emissions according to UNEP. Furthermore, forests are very important for biodiversity as well as providing clean water and preventing erosion.

As previously explained, biomass energy is classified as carbon neutral since trees absorb carbon when they are replanted. However, this process takes time. In an open letter to the EU in 2018 signed by over 800 scientists, critical voices point out that it could take up to 100 years before that carbon is absorbed again. Compared to fossil fuels, this is of course a short time frame in terms of renewability, but climate change is moving even quicker. According to the UN, we only have 10 years to make drastic emission cuts.

Deforestation is responsible for about 11% of our carbon emissions according to UNEP.

Drax claims that wood pellets cannot be linked to deforestation and describes their energy as “climate positive, nature positive, and people positive”. They also emphasize that wood pellets are made from residues within the forest industry. Enviva however states on its website that only about 25% of its wood is sawdust and other waste products. The rest is sourced directly from logging trees. As mentioned earlier, Enviva exports a lot of its products to Drax. Both Drax and Enviva state they are utilizing forests in the most sustainable way possible. Climate organizations like Dogwood Alliance and Natural Resources Defence Council on the other hand accuse the companies of clearcutting environmentally and biodiversity important forests.

There is also an environmental justice aspect to the biomass industry. In an interview with BBC from 2021, one woman says that ever since Enviva opened up a pellet plant close to their homes in North Carolina, many community members have been experiencing health issues such as breathing problems and nosebleeds. Similar issues are raised in a recent report from Greenpeace magazine Unearthed, investigating pellet mills run by Drax in America. The mills pollute the surrounding environment with organic chemicals that have been linked to several negative health impacts including breathing issues, skin irritation, dizziness, and cancer. Drax has paid millions of dollars in settlements

after three of their Louisiana pellet mills have been sued for breaking environmental regulations, Unearthed writes. These mills are more likely to be situated in deprived communities with high poverty levels.

Towards a green future

In 2021 the EU published a revision of its Renewable Energy Directive as an attempt to clarify sustainability criteria for biomass and to protect highly biodiverse forests. This indicates a broadening understanding that biopower is a complex question. Reusing different waste products to generate energy appears as a good strategy as the need for alternative energy sources is urgent. However, in this pressing transition, the preservation of vital

pellet industry presents plans to expand, economic incentives might pose a threat to the sustainability of forest management. The environmental justice issues connected to the placements and pollution of some of the world's biggest wood pellet manufacturers also highlight another important aspect of the rush to renewable energy. Our energy needs to not only be green, but it also needs to be just. ♦

Energy Dilemmas Energy security, the environment, and indigenous rights

By Anita Tvedt Kaksrud

The climate heats up, ecosystems face another The climate heats up, ecosystems face another mass extinction and expansive land use chang- mass extinction and land use es, and an energy crisis emerges. These three es, and an energy crisis emerges. These three crises all require immediate action. The prob- crises all immediate action. The lem, however, is that these crises are inherently is that these crises are interlinked yet the measures each requires coun- interlinked yet the measures each counteract the others While it is crucial to increase teract others. is to energy production and availability and to ex- energy and and to expand renewable energy plants, land use change renewable energy land use is the leading cause of species extinction while is the cause of species extinction while too often being a realization of colonial think- too often a realization of colonial thinking, misuse of power, and human conflict. Es- misuse of power, and human con pecially vulnerable in situations like these are vulnerable in situations like these are indigenous peoples and their rights. In other and their In other words, although increased energy availability is words, increased energy is much needed, it brings forward dilemmas and much it forward dilemmas and trade-offs that force us to ask ourselves how s us to ourselves much we are, or should be, willing to sacrifice much we are, or should be, to sacri ce. Indigenous peoples' rights include the right to rights include the to the land they use and identify with. However, the land use and with. However, this collective right to land is often vulnerable this collective to land is often vulnerable and tested to its furthest by non-indigenous ac- and tested to its furthest actors seeking to expand economic activity on tors to economic activity on indigenous lands This, sadly, is not a surprise lands. is not a considering the discrimination, assimilation, the discrimination, assimilation, and even genocide indigenous peoples around and even around the world have faced and still do. The colonial perception of indigenous peoples is very much of is very much still alive as it pictures them as either non-exis- still alive as it them as either non-existent or primitive and in need of development and tent or and in need of and

assimilation into the majority culture. State ac- assimilation into the majority culture. State actors can use this framing as they attempt to jus- tors can use this as attempt to justify breaking the indigenous right to their land the to their land when such energy dilemmas emerge. Two of when such energy dilemmas emerge. Two of many examples of such cases are from the Ma- many of such cases are from the Mapuche people in Argentina and the Sámi people in and the Sámi in Norway. Although their cases are different in in their cases are di erent terms of their history, how they are playing out, terms of their how are out, and what energy sources are being promoted, and what energy sources are they both face the same fight – the right to exist both face the same – the to exist as indigenous peoples on their lands as on their lands.

The Mapuche and fracking The Mapuche and

In the case of Argentina, unconventional hy- In the case of unconventional drofracturing, “fracking”, became especially became important as a source of money and energy af- as a source of money and energy after Argentina’s financial collapse in 2001 This ter nancial in 2001. This is when one of the largest unconventional oil is when one of the unconventional oil reserves was found in a geological formation in reserves was found in a formation in Northern Patagonia – Vaca Muerta The Argen- Northern – Vaca Muerta. The tinian state then signed a contract with the Amer- tinian state then a contract with the American oil company YPF to start fracking. This ican oil company YPF to start This very area is also the home of the indigenous Ma- very area is also the home of the Mapuche people, and fracking developments have and have been built on specifically Mapuche-recognized been built on territory The impacts for Argentina as a whole territory. The for as a whole and for the Mapuche are therefore uneven. It is and for the are therefore uneven. It is the state who mainly benefits from economic the state who bene ts growth and enhanced energy security. Mean- and enhanced energy Meanwhile, the local Mapuche people have become while, the local have become on one of the indigenous groups worldwide to on one of the groups worldwide to experience the most pollution, while also being the most while also added to the already too-long list of indigenous added to the list of

peoples to be forcefully evicted. Additionally, to be evicted. the social dynamics and roles attached to such the social and roles attached to such extractive industries have reinforced damaging extractive industries have reinforced gender roles and machismo, which had led the roles and machismo, which had led the women in the Vaca Muerta area to experience women in the Vaca Muerta area to increased trafficking and femicides. Howev- tra and femicides. However, the Mapuche people, just like indigenous er, the like peoples in general, are not passive victims. Al- in are not passive victims. Although the state has put efforts into framing the the state has put e orts into the Mapuche’s indigenous status as illegitimate by status as referring to them as solely opportunistic rebels to them as opportunistic rebels who just need to accept development, the Ma- who need to accept the Mapuche engage in both formal politics, symbol- engage in both formal ism, and civil disobedience in their resistance and civil disobedience in their resistance and demand for legitimacy and demand for legitimacy.

One of the Mapuche women at the forefront of One of the women at the forefront of the fight against colonial-like extractivism is colonial-like extractivism is Moira Millán, who emphasizes how “the Moira Millán, who how “the local effects that are provoked in our e ects that are in our zone are not endemic, they are a part of zone are not are a part of a global policy”. The policy does indeed a The does indeed have a global reach, from the south of have a reach, from the south of South America to the very north of the South America to the very north of the Nordics.

The Samí and wind farms

Though vastly different countries, Argentina di erent and Norway do have a few things in common. and do have a few in common. They both have large reserves and production both have reserves and of fossil fuels and a population of indigenous of fossil fuels and a of peoples.

Recently, Norway has started to expand its ef- has started to its efforts in wind farms in a much need effort to de- a e ort to crease dependence on fossil fuels While this is crease on fossil fuels. While this is good news regarding climate change, the ex- news climate the expansion has caused conflicts over indigenous has caused con icts over Samí people’s land and rights. Still, wind farms Samí land and wind farms have been attempted to expand onto indigenous have been to expand onto land Norway’s largest wind farm, with the land. wind farm, with the Norwegian state as the largest owner, was built state as the owner, was built on indigenous land which the Samí on land which the Samí uses for their traditional reindeer uses husbandry.

Just like in Patagonia, the Just like in the pursuit of energy was to be of energy was to be enforced at the expense of enforced at the expense of indigenous rights. Like the Like the Mapuche, the Samí refuses to the Samí refuses to be disregarded and be and yet again harmed yet harmed by the state the state.

Moira Millán

Image by Cobertura Colaborativa Ella 2018 (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Although the wind farm stood tall and ready the wind farm stood tall and in 2019, both the UN and the Norwegian Su- in 2019, both the UN and the Supreme Court ruled in 2020 that the wind farm preme Court ruled in 2020 that the wind farm had breached the Samí human rights and that the had breached the Samí human and that the state now must repair the damages it has caused state now must the it has caused. However, the wind farm is still there three years However, the wind farm is still there three years later, and the Norwegian parliament insists on later, and the insists on finding a compromise. a

Energy vs. human rights? vs. human

The question is then if we should or can com- The is then if we should or can compromise on human rights. Should it be okay to on human Should it be to down-prioritize some human rights in face of the some human in face of the energy crisis? energy crisis?

If so, should the already marginalized indige- If so, should the nous peoples be the humans we decide to restrict nous be the humans we decide to restrict rights for, yet again? Yet, without a fast increase for, yet Yet, without a fast increase in energy availability, even more people could in energy even more could suffer Could it be okay to sacrifice the rela- er. Could it be to sacri ce tively few indigenous peoples for the majority few for the of non-indigenous? Or does the history of im- of Or does the of imposed suffering on indigenous peoples leave the su on leave the non-indigenous with a duty to conserve indige- with a to conserve nous rights more carefully now? Adding the ur- nous more now? the urgency and vast consequences of climate change gency and vast consequences of climate to the equations makes this list of ethical ques- to the makes this list of ethical questions even longer For example, should indige- tions even longer. For should nous people, who generally are associated with nous who are associated with more sustainable environment management, be more sustainable environment management, be the ones to pay the price of climate change? Or the ones to pay the of climate Or is climate change already so urgent that it is jus- is climate so urgent that it is tified to make current human rights less import- ed to make current human less ant?

The three interlinked crises – climate change, The three interlinked crises – climate mass extinction and land use change, and energy mass extinction and land use and energy shortage – need to be handled with care if we – need to be handled with care if we are to avoid the unintentional consequence of are to avoid the unintentional consequence of building on the emerging fourth crisis of further on the fourth crisis of further restricting indigenous and human rights. indigenous and human ♦

The point is simple yet so complicated; the en- The is yet so the energy crisis is so complex that we should be wary ergy crisis is so that we should be wary of any easy solutions of any easy solutions.

Image by Ministerio Bienes Nacionales (CC BY 2.0)

Mapuche women at the handover of land to the Mapuche Community Lorenzo Quintrileo de Tirúa

Petroleum, a Blessing or a Curse?

By: Moltas Karlsson

One of the most famous observations in political science is that the most democratic countries in the world also tend to be the richest, while the most autocratic countries also tend to be the poorest. In 1959 this observation led to one of the most influential theories in politics, Seymour Martin Lipset’s modernization theory. According to the modernization theory, economic development in countries should be associated with democratic development, as economic progress contributes to important aspects of democracy such as education and infrastructure. Although today the theory is much debated, a productive economy is still considered an important factor for democratic development. Because of this, one might think that petroleum-rich countries more often than not should be amongst the most democratic countries in the world because of their great wealth. As we look at Norway and Canada, this is true. However, most of the time we see the opposite. The countries richest in petroleum actually tend to be amongst the most consolidated autocratic countries in the world. Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Russia are just some of the examples that can be listed as representations of this phenomenon. While oil can be seen as one of the most powerful and beneficial resources a country can have, most citizens of oil-rich countries still seem to suffer. Why is this? How can countries which seem to have the economic tools to thrive, also tend to have both amongst the poorest and most oppressed citizens in the world?

Michael Ross, a professor of political science at the University of California, has written the book “The Oil Curse”. In the book, Ross highlights the presented issue and explains the mechanisms behind the complex nature of oil wealth and democratic absence. Ross explains that oil wealth gives the rulers a lot of money

for patronage. The wealth furthers the state's influence, which often overshadows the private sector while government jobs are also highly sought after, both of which are key mechanisms to retain political loyalty. More money at the state’s disposal can also lead to better control over crucial institutions, such as the military and police which provide the state with a firm grip on the citizens. Ross exemplifies the Arab spring to prove his point. The Arab spring was a democratic movement consisting of a series of protests and uprisings against regimes. The movement took place in northern Africa and the Arabian peninsula with the purpose of demanding more democracy as the vast majority of states were considered authoritarian or corrupt. Ross argues that states not “blessed” with a lot of oil were more responsive to the movement compared to states with large oil production. Oil states were more effective at beating down and restricting resistance because their resources increased their state capacity which could be used to constrain and dampen opposition.

Another important mechanism is that the great wealth of oil also makes the state less dependent on taxes. According to Ross, taxes are an essential part to promote democracy. Less dependency on taxes takes away the people’s political participation. This is because when the people pay taxes it contributes to a greater demand of responsibility, hence making the government more accountable. Without taxes, the demand and pressure on the state decrease, making it easier for those in power to stay in power.

Ross even claims that gender inequality in the Middle East sprung from the oil curse. A common perception is that Middle Eastern countries have less gender equality than much of the rest of the world because of cultural circumstances. Ross argues that culture is only a small part fueled and amplified by the oil profits in these countries. This is because oil tends to benefit male-dominated industries while sectors dominated by women tend not to witness the benefits from the supply, something which consequently restrains women in oil-dependent states while elevating men’s position in society.

To conclude Ross’ theory, though oil-rich countries tend to have some of the poorest citizens, certainly, someone benefits from the supply, this just tends to not be the people, but the governments. Ross’ theory is based on the thesis that governments in oil-rich countries benefit more without democracy than with it. The profits from oil thus increase the state’s capacity to control the people and rule without their

consent. In other words, governments benefit so great that they can use the profits to elevate their power and keep their authority.

The oil curse is just like all other theories regarding social sciences, not a law of nature in the meaning that exceptions do occur, Norway being the most eminent instance of these exceptions. The country is much dependent on oil, still, they are one of the most consolidated and prosperous democracies in the world. This is probably because of Norway’s early transition toward democracy accompanied by a number of other theories in political science explaining democratization and democracy. However, these explanations and a few exceptions are irrelevant to our issue, as the pattern of oil and autocracy is still strong. There are always exceptions in political science and explanations for why these are. Regardless, the necessary element to note is that exceptions don’t have to make a theory irrelevant, it simply makes the puzzle more complex.To demonstrate this pattern of oil and democratic absence, the map

illustrated above shows the top 30 most oil and gas-dependent countries in the world, that is, the countries in the world whose economies are most centralized around oil.

The second map shows the same countries, except the ones in blue are considered “free” by FreedomHouse, a good indication to determine a country’s democratic condition. The map undeniably demonstrates the pattern of oil-dependent countries and the lack of democracy. Besides Ross’ theory, states with deficient or rather non-existent democracy accompanied by possessions of large oil reserves could also be hard to democratize by intervening with financial tools.

great wealth. As the dependency decreases, the regime’s latitude to suppress and implement undemocratic policies increases, which consolidates its power further.

The greatest threat to human existence and the most predominant challenge today is climate change. Thus, the threat to our existence has brought the shift toward renewable energy to the top of the agenda for numerous oil-consuming countries. Countries, which as of today, are important customers for the oil states. Therefore, the shift toward more green energy sources will greatly impact the states dependent on oil and gas.

For example, financial tools such as sanctions could put pressure on undemocratic states to reform policies, hence supporting the growth of democracy. But, when states obtain large quantities of oil, their dependency on foreign cooperation decreases as oil is a reliable source of

As countries move away from the usage of oil to find alternative sources of energy this will mean more excess in the states which provide themselves through oil. The excess will in turn cause a decline in the state's capacity, eroding the aggrandizement of regimes in power.

Ross suggests that this erosion of those in power could lead to two different outcomes. One outcome of regimes losing their power is that it could potentially lead to instability. This type of instability has been seen in many cases throughout history and isn’t usually very pretty. The other outcome, according to Ross, could be that the erosion results in more democracy.

As the regime falls, it could potentially lead to democratic reforms and broader distribution amongst sources of income. A more diversified economy would then, perhaps, break the curse, forcing states to turn oil into an asset instead of a reliance, similar to the US. If this would be the case, not only would a shift to renewable energy be beneficial for the climate, but also democracy.It seems that petroleum is not always a blessing, but sometimes rather a curse. Regardless of whether petroleum is a curse or not, and which one of Ross’ two possible outcomes turns out to be true, the shift from oil toward more “green energy” is inevitable.

Therefore, one can only hope that the shift will also lead to more democracy and equality rather than instability and turmoil.

The shift to renewable energy is dramatic for numerous reasons, I argue this is one of them. A shift toward not only green but perhaps even democratic and equal energy.♦

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How the energy crisis is unfolding the deep-rooted biases

By Dominique Keizer

The current energy crisis is evident in every aspect of our daily lives. Rising electricity bills and increased food prices are just examples of how we are becoming forced to rethink the sources of our energy consumption. Efi Koutsokosta & Jorge Liboreiro, two columnists from Euronews, looked at how institutions such as the European Commission are now challenged to develop measures to procure future prices and seek economic stability. One such initiative involves a joint procurement scheme to increase the purchasing power of the European Union (EU) and lower the prices. Yet, given the diversity of energy sources and mixes, most EU countries still seem to be resistant to signing the so-called “solidarity agreement”. With rising awareness of the challenges behind conventional power grids perhaps this is the time to address sustainability and innovative solutions. Yet, one should remember that a solution is not always applicable to everyone. Undoubtedly this energy crisis will spark creative schemes as to how to lessen the dependency on fuel-based energy sources and instead integrate renewable energy sources (RES) with the already existing conventional ones. As

shall be discussed in this article, the current innovations regarding energy use might have unprecedented social consequences if uncritically applied. Specifically, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its solution-driven role in the field of engineering might create a way forwards in the current crisis if inequity shall be appropriately included. Without taking into account gender or race, AI could exaggerate the already existing structural barriers.

At this exact moment, the engineering industry is highly pressured to sustainably manage the fragile balance of supply and demand within the energy sector. The challenge lies in conventional power grids not being designed to efficiently integrate renewable energy sources such as wind, solar or hydrogen. Practically speaking, the threat is in meeting the variable loads of the power grid.

For that rea-

son, scholars such as Tanveer Ahmad and Dongdong Zhang have researched how the energy industry can incorporate AI

son, scholars such as Tanveer

technology to perform the task of forecasting and operating the power system efficiently. The forecast is expected to reduce uncertainty through purchase management and distribution schedules. At first, one might argue this could be a solution to the current power crisis. However, it is relevant to not oversee that technologies also affect the way individuals interact and understand their reality. Before diving into the social aspect, it is imperative to mention that technological developments definitely have the potential to benefit both individuals and the environment in a sustainable way. The implementation of AI in projects on biodiversity has allowed for instance to map the global biodiversity loss. Dr. Bistra Dilkina, a computer scientist at Georgia Tech, is applying computing skills to optimise biodiversity corridor planning for different species. When looking at the field of energy engineering, AI has also helped in processing complex decision-making such as the environmental impact of solar and wind farm sites.

AI shall undoubtedly become the future of how we plan our way forwards in the post-energy crisis reality. As mentioned at the beginning of the article, the question remains whether everyone shall equally benefit from these innovations. It is seldom discussed that the unaddressed bias in data used to train AI algorithms might create new problems. Ricardo Vinuesa & Hossein Azizpour together with other scholars have recently published a paper on how both racial and gender bias in, for instance, face recognition tools portray the problems that AI practitioners still have to overcome. A positive future of AI is only

possible if we start questioning our perceptions of reality. In the end, the bias found in machine learning is a mirror of what we believe to be the truth.

When putting the gender bias of energy consumption into a broader context, it can be noted how energy poverty is unequally experienced within homes. One of the areas in which AI is implemented involves smart home management. This is to allow customers easier access to energy management through virtual power systems. Yet, as has been researched by Saska Petrova & Neil Simcock, ‘the home’ continues to be addressed as a homogenous entity without gender differences. What the current energy crisis has shown is that energy vulnerability is gendered. Specifically, the increase in energy prices is what has revealed and reiterated traditional gender roles.

Women are culturally expected to take care of household responsibilities. As a result, they face a disproportionate consequence of energy poverty. Limiting energy consumption in the house includes tactics such as adjusting the heating, limiting vacuuming or doing laundry during specific times. These activities are mostly undertaken by women which leads to increased emotional and physical labour. Feminised pro-environmental behaviour is happening at the expense of women’s time. It is the different energy-related roles of household members that eventually reshape vulnerabilities.

With that in mind, one could ask why women cannot change their reality by joining the decision-making process. Given their experiences of energy saving would it not be efficient to hear their voices? It is not that easy, however, as it may seem. Glass-ceiling into leadership positions is still a reality for many women. Even though the recruitment of women and girls is seemingly on the rise, they leave at a crucial point in their careers. Barriers are still there when it comes to career advancement. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in fields such as science, technology, engineering or mathematics (STEM) the average share of women accounts for only 28%. In the oil and gas industry, the share of women is only 22%.

Social and cultural norms tend to be the main barrier to diversifying the workforce with women being expected to take care of the household and childcare. Studies done by IRENA have shown that the work-life balance becomes problematic for women if the work schedule is not adjusted to family and household duties through for instance flexible work hours. Lack of career information and networks, misperceptions of career pathways and mobility requirements form another obstacle. Now with the fastgrowing advancement of AI in many engineering fields, it is more relevant than ever to create opportunities for women’s engagement.

The relevance of questioning the inclusivity of the new energy solutions can be seen in how Machine Learning (ML) tends to re-

inforce the already visible gender bias. As covered by Tom Simonite, a previous San Francisco bureau chief at MIT Technology, a simple example of this bias has been shown by databases that portray women with domestic chores and men with sports. Besides the gender dynamic, racial bias is still a dominant problem as well. Computer scientist Joy Buolamwini wrote for TIME how most facial analysis softwares do not recognise dark-skinned faces, given the system is trained on light-skinned men. That is how the assumption of machines being neutral is wrong.

Partnership with gender experts and participatory design could help to recognise the gender and racial impacts of an algorithm. This is the critical time to address how technologies affect individuals before AI can become part of the new every day. Scientist Joy Buolamwini also described how failed machine learning might also amplify sexist hiring practices, spread false information or make the criminal justice procedures racist. The same applies to the energy sector. Energy vulnerability is just a continuation of the invisible discursive script of what is considered the norm. Energy infrastructure is not gender-neutral, as some would assume. Without a critical assessment of how reality is experienced the promised breakthrough of technological solutions could reproduce systematic discrimination.

The already direct impact of this exclusionary decision-making in the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy can be seen in the distributional inequity faced by

Sámi reindeer herders in the north of Sweden. Columnist for The Guardian Karen McVeigh has written that forestry and mining projects are already expanding into traditional grazing grounds. In the last century alone the undisturbed reindeer habitat has become smaller by approximately 70%. This includes the floods of grazing lands while building the infrastructure for hydroelectric power. Besides the shrinking of the natural habitat of the reindeer, the Sámi people are also troubled by climate change. Scholar Dorothee Cambou from the University of Helsinki has shown in her research that the Arctic is affected by the warming temperatures of climate change four times more than the rest of the world. Meaning, it is the Sámi people who understand the impact of human expansion into untouched environments. Yet, similarly as in the case of women’s contri-

bution to energy projects, the Sami communities face recognition obstacles to participate in the development of initiatives such as wind energy.We definitely need to change how we consume energy. However, let's not forget that the challenges faced by the Sami community could be a future mirror of how exclusion might look like.

Without a doubt, AI will be the new norm in our efforts to become more sustainable and energy efficient. The already existing initiatives such as the corridor planning for different animal species show that solutions do exist and there is still hope. But these solutions will only become solutions if we start questioning the algorithms. ♦

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The securitization of energy in the light of the energy crisis: a CFSP concern?

Energy securitization Energy securitization

By Axèle Maillard Arricot

The EU’s Common Foreign and Security

The EU’s Common and Policy (CFSP) was established in 1993 and was established in 1993 and has since been strengthened by many treaties. has since been by many treaties. The Common Foreign and Security Policy The Common and acts as the European Union (EU)’s foreign acts as the Union policy, mainly in the areas of security and in the areas of and defence diplomacy It also participates in the defence diplomacy. It also in the EU’s external action, in the areas of trade and EU’s external in the areas of trade and commercial policy The CFSP is represented commercial policy. The CFSP is and chaired by Josep Borrell, the High and chaired Josep the Representative of the EU. As for many of the of the EU. As for many of the EU’s tools and policies, the main objective of EU’s tools and the main of the CFSP is “to preserve peace and strengthen the CFSP is “to preserve peace and international security in accordance with the international in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter” of the United Nations Charter”. The CFSP was initially created in order to The CFSP was created in order to coordinate and harmonize all of the Member States (MS)’s domestic foreign policies, and it States domestic and it now pursues and contributes to the wide array now pursues and contributes to the wide array of different foreign policy objectives of the erent of the Union.

There exists a strong nexus between the CFSP There exists a strong nexus between the CFSP and energy policy, as both the externalization and energy as both the externalization and securitization of the EU’s energy market and securitization of the EU’s energy market have enabled the development of the EU’s have enabled the of the EU’s energy security policy, which can be thought energy which can be of as a tool to ensure wider foreign policy of as a tool to ensure wider objectives.

The security of energy supplies has been a The of energy has been a major topic in debates around the globe and in debates around the and at different levels, and the development of an at erent levels, and the of an integrated EU energy policy has slowly been EU energy has been witnessed over the years Debates surrounding witnessed over the years. Debates EU energy policy have led to many claims EU energy have led to many claims regarding the ‘securitisation’ of energy the ‘securitisation’ of energy. Moreover, the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, and the Ukrainian crisis of and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict have the Russo-Ukrainian con relaunched those very debates on European relaunched those very debates on European energy security and acted as a catalyst for more energy and acted as a for more EU energy autonomy This can be illustrated EU energy autonomy. This can be illustrated through the different sets of EU sanctions the di erent sets of EU sanctions against Russia, and the will to break the Russia, and the will to break the Union’s dependency on Russia by distancing Union’s on Russia itself and seeking new solutions. itself and seeking new solutions. However, what is energy securitization? One However, what is energy securitization? One could define it as a process within which ne it as a process within which governments or institutions shape the issue of governments or institutions the issue of energy as a threat to national or international energy as a threat to national or international interests (or state interests). It is a phenomenon interests state It is a that is located at the intersection between at different areas, such as economics, geopolitics, erent areas, such as economics, and security; which emerge from multi-level and which emerge from multi-level political structures (e.g. international and/or structures international and/or domestic) A fragmented governance and a domestic). A governance and a failure to address energy security in the past, failure to address energy in the past, on both the international and European levels, on both the international and European levels, have created a sense of emergency that ought have created a sense of emergency that to be met with the development of effective to be met with the of e trade policy instruments to enhance EU energy trade instruments to enhance EU energy security.

Image by Rochak Shuklaon Freepik

The concept of energy

The concept of energy security is a crucial aspect of any economy’s is a crucial aspect of any long-term sustainability, and it deals with and it deals with the ability of a country or economic block to the of a country or economic block to sustainably provide for its long-term energy for its energy demands. The issue of energy security is not demands. The issue of energy is not a new one, and it has been a concern of the a new one, and it has been a concern of the EU for many years, as can be illustrated by EU for many years, as can be illustrated the European Council’s ‘Energy Policy for the Council’s for Europe’ (2006) However, the development of (2006). However, the development of energy security into a CFSP concern is quite energy into a CFSP concern is recent Thus, it is safe to assume that energy recent. Thus, it is safe to assume that energy policy is a political and security concern just as is a and concern as much as it is economic. as

Energy securitization and the energy market securitization and the energy market

Nowadays, the EU is experiencing many the EU is many challenges in the light of the energy crisis. in the of the energy crisis. The import dependency is increasing and there The is and there is limited diversification, while the energy while the energy market is experiencing further integration market is further and interconnection, as well as high and and interconnection, as well as high and volatile energy prices. A variety of measures volatile energy prices. A of measures aiming to provide solutions and achieve an to solutions and achieve an integrated energy market, security of energy energy of energy supply and a sustainable energy sector are and a sustainable energy sector are at the core of the EU’s energy policy The at the core of the EU’s energy policy. The aim of the European Commission (EC) is to aim of the European Commission is to diversify supply, enhance the production of enhance the of green energy and focus mainly on gas which green energy and focus on gas which influences the electricity markets. Bilateral uences the markets. Bilateral

ents are of crucial importance to the EU agreements are of crucial importance to the EU nergy transition, notably throughout this in its energy throughout this crisis. At the Member States level, it is energy crisis. At the Member States level, it is h bilateral agreements that the solidarity through bilateral agreements that the p ple of the EU has enabled different MS principle of the EU has enabled di erent to ratify agreements with each other. However, to agreements with each other. However, as proved by the infringement procedures as the introduced by the Commission in 2020, introduced the Commission in many Member States do not put the relevant many Member States do not put the relevant regulation in effect, which has led to only six in e ect, which has led to six bilateral agreements being concluded (e.g. bilateral agreements being concluded Denmark and Germany) Thus, it seems that Denmark and Germany). Thus, it seems that internal solidarity and energy trade represents internal and energy trade represents a challenge to the EU and its Member States. a to the EU and its Member States.

Synergies between the CFSP and energy between the CFSP and energy securitization

As different geopolitical events unfold, there is erent events unfold, there is a growing consensus within the EU to defend a consensus within the EU to defend its energy interests and priorities, notably its energy interests and through the use of its CFSP instruments. We the use of its CFSP instruments. We can assume that this is a direct consequence of can assume that this is a direct consequence of the fact that the EU relies heavily on external the fact that the EU relies on external sources for its energy needs. Indeed, the EU sources for its energy needs. Indeed, the EU is illustrating a complex paradox: while it is a while it consumes approximately one-fifth of the consumes oneworld’s energy supply, it is also the largest world’s energy it is also the importer of energy. This contradicting fact is of energy. This fact is accentuated by the lack of diversity within the accentuated the lack of within the EU’s primary energy suppliers, namely four EU’s energy four non-EU members: Algeria, Lybia, Norway and non-EU members: Norway and Russia. What’s more, as we have witnessed Russia. What’s more, as we have witnessed through the last security threats, the current the last the current energy supply is intrinsically linked to highly energy is intrinsically linked to politicized sources (i e Russia’s weaponisation politicized sources (i.e. Russia’s of energy). of

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When analyzing the relationship between the When the between the CFSP and energy securitization, it is important CFSP and energy securitization, it is to bear in mind that the central issue to a to in that issue to a complete and efficient securitization, is the lack and e cient is the lack of coherence of the EU foreign policy Indeed, of coherence of the EU policy. and as said previously, the CFSP was initially and as said the CFSP was aimed at harmonizing the Member States’ foreign aimed at the Member States’ policies into one, at the EU level. However, the into one, at the EU level. However, the internal bureaucratic structure of the EU, coupled internal bureaucratic structure of the EU, with the Member States’ national interests makes it complicated for the EU to act coherently in it complicated for the EU to act in international relations. As an example, in light international relations. As an example, in of the current events, the EU is divided into of the current events, the EU is divided into Member States striking a bilateral deal with Member States a bilateral deal with Putin, while others point fingers and incriminate Putin, while others ngers and incriminate their neighbours for doing so (i.e. Germany and their for so Germany and the Nord Stream 2 project - lead to mistrust the Nord Stream 2 - lead to mistrust between the EU Member States) between the EU Member States).

The lack of trust between the different Member trust erent States, and which surrounds the Union as a whole, States, and which surrounds the Union as a represents a risk for full securitization of the represents a risk for full securitization of the energy matter The EU as an institution has long energy matter. The EU as an institution has considered Russia as a threat, notably because of considered Russia as a because of its approach to striking agreements, and thus it its to agreements, and thus it has always called for more cohesion, coherence has called for more cohesion, coherence and strategy. It is after Russia’s invasion of and strategy. It is after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that the EU has somewhat successfully Ukraine, that the EU has somewhat shown its capacities, and will, to act as a single shown its and to act as a voice and managed to - partially - reach the initial voice and to - - reach the initial goal of the CFSP of the CFSP.

Different competencies and institutions overlap erent and institutions in the context of energy security While the in the context of energy security. While the EU possesses a market size that gives it great EU possesses a market size that it great leverage, and a high number of instruments at its and a number of instruments at its disposal to bear on negotiations, it should not fall to bear on it should not fall into the trap of prioritising energy as a foreign into the trap of energy as a and security policy, at the risk of missing out on and at the risk of out on the intertwinement of many different policies. the intertwinement of many di erent

An important conclusion to draw is that the An conclusion to draw is that the question of energy security as we are dealing with of energy as we are with it nowadays need not to be restrained to the area it need not to be restrained to the area of foreign and security policy, but rather it needs of and but rather it needs to be set in a broader policy context Indeed, to be set in a broader context. policies relating to economic implications, or to economic or climate change and the environment, are crucial climate and the environment, are crucial to be explored and considered in order to provide to be and considered in order to efficient policies. cient ♦

The Merit Order Effect

By Natalia Olsson Orio

The merit order effect is a phenomenon within the topic of energy that is comparably new and has not been talked about enough, especially since energy is a very hot topic today. The merit order effect is, simply put, a lowering effect of the wholesale electricity price when the percentage of renewable energy sources increases in the energy mix. As we are moving towards replacing our energy sources towards more sustainable ones, this is an important phenomenon to be aware about and to expand research on. It has not been thoroughly studied if the merit order effect will last in the long run, but what little studies have been made suggest this is only a temporary effect. The merit order effect may also cause the electricity market to need to be re-designed.

The merit order effect is something that needs to take more space in the energy discussion as we move towards a world that aims to become

In a study by Gielen, Boshell, Sayigin, Brazilian, Wagner and Grini from 2019, the authors wrote the emissions of CO2 related to energy constitute about two thirds of the global greenhouse gas emissions. The authors further explain that there has to be a global energy transition from fossil sources to sustainable and renewable ones if the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree goal is to be reached. However, the renewable energy sources that hold most potential are ones that are variable and difficult to manually control to make sure the electricity supply meets the demand, López Prol and Schill write in their paper from 2021, which fluctuates over both in time during the day and throughout the year. The lowering effect on the price of increasing the share or renewably sourced energy in the energy mix may also demand a restructuring of our electricity markets, according to Breakthrough Energy.

Before going into the explanation behind what exactly happens for the merit order effect to occur, there is some important information that needs to be gone through. Different

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Prol and Schill, as well as Breakthrough Energy. Dispatchability describes how easily an energy source can be controlled manually. For instance, the conventional energy sources such as gas turbines, are classified as dispatchable energy sources, since they can be turned off and on to only produce electricity when demand is high, thus having high operational flexibility. There are some renewable energy sources that are dispatchable, such as bioenergy, hydropower and geothermal energy, but they have limited potential. The renewable energy-generating technologies that are easier to develop and that have higher potential are non-dispatchable: different kinds of solar power and onand offshore windpower. Why these are called non-dispatchable is because the energy these sources generate are determined by the sun and the wind, which are factors us humans cannot control manually. As such, only the amount of energy that the sun and the wind allows will be produced; there is low operational flexibility.

Another important thing to know about is the relationship between dispatchability and variable costs, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides a thorough explanation of this. Variable costs are determined by how much operational flexibility an energy source has; a source that has low operational flexibility has low to no variable costs, because there simply is nothing to control; what’s being generated is what is being generated, due to the amount of sunshine or wind. Energy sources that can easily be controlled, however, have high variable costs; they can easily be turned off and on and easily control how much energy is to be generated. Due to the variable costs being lower for non-dispatchable energy sources, these are the ones

to first be dispatched on the electricity market. Another reason is that these sources cannot be used to regulate so that supply meets demand; that is what the dispatchable sources are for. The dispatchable sources are used in the times of day and year when non-dispatchable renewable sources are not enough to meet demand, and so are the last sources to be dispatched onto the electricity market.

Onto the actual merit order effect, which López Prol and Schill write in detail about in their paper from 2021. The price and the quantity of electricity will be determined by the point where supply meets demand. What is slightly different from the electricity market to other markets is its shape.

Here it can be described as having a staircase shape (see Figure below), where the different levels represent different amounts in variable

costs (or dispatchability, as the variable cost is in essence determined by a source’s dispatchability). The lower levels represent sources that have no to low variable costs, and the higher the level, the higher the variable costs.

If the share of renewably sourced energy increases, then the share of zero variable cost sources increases. As the share of zero variable cost sources increase, this will cause the wholesale electricity price (which is the price that consumers pay for electricity) to decrease. Increasing the share of renewably sourced energy causes the share of fossil sourced energy to decrease. As such the variable costs decrease, and the price for the consumers decreases.

This is a very fortunate effect for consumers, Antweiler and Muesgens write in their paper from 2021, however, it is not clear if this effect will last in the long run. Theoretically, this should only be a short-term effect. Gelabert, Labandeira and Linares have explained it in their paper from 2011 as when the electricity price decreases, this will cause a long term signal indicating that it is not worth investing in this; the revenue is decreasing. The investments would then over time deteriorate, and eventually the electricity price will increase again, because there is only so much electricity that can be renewably sourced. Antweiler and Muesgens, on the other hand, have come to the potential conclusion that the merit order effect could be a by-product of a slow paced capacity adjustment of fossil sourced electricity; the supply of fossil sourced electricity takes time to adjust to how much electricity renewable sources can supply when they expand.

Because the wholesale prices decrease due to the merit order effect, there might be a need for a restructuring of the electricity market as we know it today, Breakthrough Energy writes. If the wholesale price decreases, that means less revenue for investors, and so they may turn away from investing in dispatchable and non-dispatchable renewably sourced energies, which is not desirable. Increasing renewably sourced energy on the

electricity market is essential, as we need these technologies to provide at least 42% of the total global electricity generation by 2040 if the Paris Agreement is to be met, according to López Prol and Schill.

We need to open up this discussion to make sure we are prepared for the transformation that is needed and the effects of increasing the share of renewable sources of electricity, if we are to be successful.♦

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